Scott Lloyd Posted June 1, 2020 Posted June 1, 2020 26 minutes ago, The Nehor said: "I won't fuss over you no longer beating your wife." - A fussy person I also have not changed my prognostication. I just think it will take longer absent a vaccine showing up beforehand. Why are you so desperately flailing to have something to gloat over? Which ignores two things: 1) In the end the pockets who do not get it are more likely to be within social and family groups and 2) I think you have a vastly flawed understanding of the timeline for "done with it". I suspect it will be akin to someone in the USA in February of 1942 commenting that this world war is not that bad because no one they know personally has died yet. I will try not to bring this up later to gloat if you or someone you know catches it. So three-quarters of the population will catch it — unless for some reason they don’t. Got it. You’ve constructed a prognostication that’s is impervious to being discredited. Deftly executed. And I’ve not mentioned a timeline. Where did you get the idea I have a “flawed understanding” of a timeline I’ve never mentioned?
Scott Lloyd Posted June 1, 2020 Posted June 1, 2020 5 minutes ago, The Nehor said: Reported. I'm also a leprechaun apologist which is an equally real thing. Did you report yourself?
ksfisher Posted June 1, 2020 Posted June 1, 2020 19 minutes ago, pogi said: I assume that means they will not be passing it down the pews. I guess I'll be finding out soon as I work with the deacons. The pictures I've seen on the church website have every other row empty with the deacon passing the sacrament using the empty rows to move around. Seems like a good plan. 1
ksfisher Posted June 1, 2020 Posted June 1, 2020 2 minutes ago, Scott Lloyd said: So three-quarters of the population will catch it — unless for some reason they don’t. Got it. You’ve constructed a prognostication that’s is impervious to being discredited. Deftly executed. After my bishops first meeting with the stake president, where the bishops were told that church was being cancelled, my bishop told me that church leadership was expecting everyone in the Salt Lake valley to catch the virus in the next year. (I realize I'm repeating 3rd hand information) Since then we've seen the effectiveness of the measures that have been taken as well as learned more about the virus. Any reasonable person would, and should, update predictions based on new information. 1
Amulek Posted June 1, 2020 Posted June 1, 2020 Our stake is heading back to church on the 14th in what they are calling Pre-Phase 1. The ward will be divided into three groups who will begin meeting on a three-week rotation. Sacrament meeting will be 45 minutes long, with all of the social distancing and other general guidelines others have mentioned. Our bishopric will be meeting this week to hammer out the details on how everything will work. Items we've already started kicking around already include things like: gathering and storing all of the hymnals, roping off rows for seating to ensure sufficient space between families, leaving doors open to limit contact, providing training for young men on how to officiate the sacrament with the new changes, etc. Any other ideas or things you have heard which you think would be good? Share them! I promise to steal and implement all of the best ones.
Amulek Posted June 1, 2020 Posted June 1, 2020 20 minutes ago, ksfisher said: The pictures I've seen on the church website have every other row empty with the deacon passing the sacrament using the empty rows to move around. Seems like a good plan. That's what we plan doing. And I liked the idea of using two separate water trays as well: one for distributing the water and a separate one for collecting the used cups. 1
Scott Lloyd Posted June 1, 2020 Posted June 1, 2020 13 minutes ago, ksfisher said: After my bishops first meeting with the stake president, where the bishops were told that church was being cancelled, my bishop told me that church leadership was expecting everyone in the Salt Lake valley to catch the virus in the next year. (I realize I'm repeating 3rd hand information) Since then we've seen the effectiveness of the measures that have been taken as well as learned more about the virus. Any reasonable person would, and should, update predictions based on new information. I think a reasonably prudent person, faced with myriad unknowns and heading into uncharted territory, would be reticent about making such predictions in the first place — which could be why the reported everyone-in-the-Salt-Lake-Valley-will-catch-it rumor is not more widespread in Church circles than it is.
Scott Lloyd Posted June 1, 2020 Posted June 1, 2020 9 minutes ago, Amulek said: Our stake is heading back to church on the 14th in what they are calling Pre-Phase 1. The ward will be divided into three groups who will begin meeting on a three-week rotation. Sacrament meeting will be 45 minutes long, with all of the social distancing and other general guidelines others have mentioned. Our bishopric will be meeting this week to hammer out the details on how everything will work. Items we've already started kicking around already include things like: gathering and storing all of the hymnals, roping off rows for seating to ensure sufficient space between families, leaving doors open to limit contact, providing training for young men on how to officiate the sacrament with the new changes, etc. Any other ideas or things you have heard which you think would be good? Share them! I promise to steal and implement all of the best ones. I mentioned this previously, but I’m told that In our stake, authorization for continued home administration of the sacrament will continue indefinitely, even after sacrament meetings resume. This is to accommodate those who don’t yet feel assured about attending group gatherings. 1
The Nehor Posted June 1, 2020 Posted June 1, 2020 37 minutes ago, Scott Lloyd said: So three-quarters of the population will catch it — unless for some reason they don’t. Got it. You’ve constructed a prognostication that’s is impervious to being discredited. Deftly executed. I have always said a vaccine or cure would change everything. There are other things that could throw it off. The Yellowstone supervolcano going off for example. When I am trying to understand this disease my objective is not to create falsifiable statements. It is to go with the best data I have. It is not to feed my ego or give you grounds to satiate your weird and obsessive desire to prove me wrong. You weirdly tried to pounce on me when I admitted my data was wrong as if you had scored some major point. I have a friendly bet with a friend over the results of this pandemic. One of us will win and one of us will lose. You are not in the game. You are not making predictions or wrestling with the data so stop trying to win. 46 minutes ago, Scott Lloyd said: And I’ve not mentioned a timeline. Where did you get the idea I have a “flawed understanding” of a timeline I’ve never mentioned? Person 1: By the end of this I expect 3 in 4 people to have caught the disease. Person 2: No one I know has it and I know more than 3 people. Person 1 checks to make sure we are not at the "end of this" and realizes person 2 does not understand the concept of things changing over time. Person 1: Why would you think that would matter at this point in time Person 2: I DIDN'T MENTION TIME SO WHY IS IT RELEVANT!?!?!?!?!?! Person 1 walks away in disgust. Person 2 starts to smugly walk away. 51 minutes ago, Scott Lloyd said: Did you report yourself? Leprechauns are apolitical.
Rain Posted June 1, 2020 Posted June 1, 2020 Our lowest high temperature in May was 84 degrees. Except for one other at 88 we have been in the 90s, 100s, but not quite to 110. Our covid numbers overall continue to raise. I'm not real sure of the idea that warmer months make it better. 1
Calm Posted June 1, 2020 Posted June 1, 2020 1 hour ago, Scott Lloyd said: So three-quarters of the population will catch it — unless for some reason they don’t. Got it. You’ve constructed a prognostication that’s is impervious to being discredited. Deftly executed. Why does he need to construct something that can be discredited? He is providing his summary of the current science, which is in flux so his open to change position is not only intelligent, but accurate. What do you see the purpose of his comment to be? A debate? A political statement? 4
bluebell Posted June 1, 2020 Posted June 1, 2020 1 hour ago, Rain said: Our lowest high temperature in May was 84 degrees. Except for one other at 88 we have been in the 90s, 100s, but not quite to 110. Our covid numbers overall continue to raise. I'm not real sure of the idea that warmer months make it better. Do they track the rate of hospitalization? It would be interesting to see if that is staying the same, increasing, or decreasing.
The Nehor Posted June 1, 2020 Posted June 1, 2020 1 hour ago, Rain said: Our lowest high temperature in May was 84 degrees. Except for one other at 88 we have been in the 90s, 100s, but not quite to 110. Our covid numbers overall continue to raise. I'm not real sure of the idea that warmer months make it better. Numbers are not falling but the expected growth has slowed. It is a good thing but I want to know why. Timeo Danaos et dona ferentes "Beware of Greeks bearing gifts" 2
pogi Posted June 1, 2020 Posted June 1, 2020 For example, you said: 17 hours ago, Scott Lloyd said: Hmm. I remember you being more adamant about everybody catching it. But if you now want to revise it to a less outlandish prognostication, I won’t fuss over that. But 75-plus percent rate of contraction in the population still strikes me as high. Notwithstanding months of uproar, to date I don’t have even one personal acquaintance I know of who has contracted the virus. A 75-plus rate would mean that out of a group of me and three acquaintances, at least three of us will have contracted the virus before we’re done with it, according to your projection. You seem to have a problem with Nehor's prediction because your own estimation would place the over-all rate of infection to be much lower. Your reasoning seems to be based entirely on extremely limited and highly anecdotal evidence. It doesn't seem like a "reasonable" or "prudent" estimation, especially when "faced with myriad unknowns and heading into uncharted territory..." 2 hours ago, Scott Lloyd said: I think a reasonably prudent person, faced with myriad unknowns and heading into uncharted territory, would be reticent about making such predictions in the first place I have to say, this feels very ironic. 1
Rain Posted June 1, 2020 Posted June 1, 2020 1 hour ago, bluebell said: Do they track the rate of hospitalization? It would be interesting to see if that is staying the same, increasing, or decreasing. They do, but I'm not sure where. I did find an article that said we hit a new high on hospitalizations on Saturday. 1
The Nehor Posted June 2, 2020 Posted June 2, 2020 3 hours ago, Rain said: They do, but I'm not sure where. I did find an article that said we hit a new high on hospitalizations on Saturday. In your state or nationwide? Too many crises to keep up with right now! I wish I could quit my job and work on this data more. I Just realized I did not even check on news from Hong Kong today. Is Taiwan still being given as a potential target for retaliation? Anyone heard anything about army movements in Megiddo? Seems like a fitting time for it. “Multitudes, multitudes in the valley of decision: for the day of the Lord is near in the valley of decision.” I always liked that passage and the meaning you can pull in English. Multitudes making decisions on which history turns. What a time to be alive.
Rain Posted June 2, 2020 Posted June 2, 2020 1 hour ago, The Nehor said: In your state or nationwide? Too many crises to keep up with right now! I wish I could quit my job and work on this data more. I Just realized I did not even check on news from Hong Kong today. Is Taiwan still being given as a potential target for retaliation? Anyone heard anything about army movements in Megiddo? Seems like a fitting time for it. “Multitudes, multitudes in the valley of decision: for the day of the Lord is near in the valley of decision.” I always liked that passage and the meaning you can pull in English. Multitudes making decisions on which history turns. What a time to be alive. Arizona
Calm Posted June 2, 2020 Posted June 2, 2020 (edited) 14 hours ago, Scott Lloyd said: I don’t know how to find that now, and I’m disinclined to spend much time and effort looking. I just remember you and Nehor being pretty much of one mind on the matter. Maybe I misperceived. I was sloppy, one moment I was talking exposure rate and the next infection rate and my phrasing was wrong with "most will get it" when I meant most will be exposed as the infection spreads globally and they start to come in contact with those contagious at sufficient levels (not just passing by the one or two asymptomatic persons in the neighbourhood on the street for a second or two). How many of those get infected depends a great deal on factors we don't know yet and I knew that then as I know now, so very poorly worded. Of course if a vaccine or some other unknown factor hinders the spread, then the outcome would be changed. Sorry for the confusion. The following post I hopefully made it clear I was talking about exposure when I said "most" or "everyone". Edited June 2, 2020 by Calm
Calm Posted June 2, 2020 Posted June 2, 2020 (edited) Just an FYI, Nehor never said universal infection as on May 7 when we first had this discussion: Quote . I think it will be 75%+ of the world's population... In between my two links. Edited June 2, 2020 by Calm
The Nehor Posted June 2, 2020 Posted June 2, 2020 1 hour ago, Rain said: Arizona Thanks, my sister, her husband, and my niece are in Phoenix.
Scott Lloyd Posted June 2, 2020 Posted June 2, 2020 (edited) 2 hours ago, Calm said: Just an FYI, Nehor never said universal infection as on May 7 when we first had this discussion: In between my two links. He didn’t use those words. He said something to the effect of we’d all be getting it, as though it were foregone. And what you cite wasn’t the only or even the first time it came up, by my recollection. Edited June 2, 2020 by Scott Lloyd
Calm Posted June 3, 2020 Posted June 3, 2020 (edited) Yes! No singing at church! Meetings are 45 minutes to allow for cleaning between. The Sacrament will be prepared with the bread pieces spread out so grabbing one will be less likely to touch others. Water cups will be spaced out as well. Deacons will go down rows themselves rather than pass the trays through hands. Masks again "encouraged" not strongly encouraged unfortunately. Bathrooms are available, but encouraged not to use them unless absolutely necessary. With meetings 45 minutes long, probably limited more to little kids and diaper changing, I am guessing. Hopefully parents will have kids go before they leave home. Edited June 3, 2020 by Calm 1
Calm Posted June 3, 2020 Posted June 3, 2020 Quote Fauci said the first vaccine candidate, made by biotech company Moderna in partnership with NIAID, should go into a final stage of trials in volunteers, known in the industry as Phase III, by mid-summer. Preparations at national and international sites are already under way, he said. “The real business end of this all will be the Phase III that starts in the first week of July, hopefully, “ Fauci said. “We want to get as many data points as we can.” Phase III will involve about 30,000 people. The vaccine will be tested in people between the ages of 18 and 55, as well as in the elderly and in people who have underlying health conditions. “It’s going to be the entire spectrum,” Fauci said. Fauci said Phase II of the trial started a few days ago. A few hundred volunteers will be involved in that part of the trial. The plan is to manufacture doses of the vaccine even before it is clear whether the vaccines work, making close to 100 million doses by November or December, Fauci said. That’s so if it does work, it can be deployed quickly. Scientists should have enough data by November or December to determine if the vaccine works, Fauci said. The AstraZeneca trial underway in the UK will follow a similar schedule. A handful of other vaccine studies should start just one to two months after that, he said. “I’m cautiously optimistic that with the multiple candidates we have with different platforms, that we are going to have a vaccine that will make it deployable,” Fauci said. He is optimistic, he said, because, while the number of deaths from Covid-19 are “profound,” largely people recover from this disease. Recovery shows that there is an immune response that can clear the virus. https://www.cnn.com/world/live-news/coronavirus-pandemic-06-03-20-intl/h_d9360b4e277953a4490fa5ee17285938 2
bluebell Posted June 3, 2020 Posted June 3, 2020 8 hours ago, Calm said: Yes! No singing at church! Meetings are 45 minutes to allow for cleaning between. The Sacrament will be prepared with the bread pieces spread out so grabbing one will be less likely to touch others. Water cups will be spaced out as well. Deacons will go down rows themselves rather than pass the trays through hands. Masks again "encouraged" not strongly encouraged unfortunately. Bathrooms are available, but encouraged not to use them unless absolutely necessary. With meetings 45 minutes long, probably limited more to little kids and diaper changing, I am guessing. Hopefully parents will have kids go before they leave home. As far as I have heard we are still singing in our ward, but masks are mandatory for everyone attending. 2
longview Posted June 3, 2020 Posted June 3, 2020 On 6/1/2020 at 1:58 PM, pogi said: On 6/1/2020 at 10:55 AM, Scott Lloyd said: I think a reasonably prudent person, faced with myriad unknowns and heading into uncharted territory, would be reticent about making such predictions in the first place I have to say, this feels very ironic. A 0.2% death rate feels VERY ironic to me.
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