Peggy Stack Reports Missionary Numbers Are Still Declining

[Calm]

2 minutes ago, katherine the great said:

Honoring women and the priesthood are cultural practices, not biological instincts. An LDS woman who is taught to value those qualities is perfectly situated to follow the scientific prediction that she will likely marry Jimmy Stewart. She just needs to be careful to not cheat with Marlon Brando or James Dean (no matter how tempting).

I'm personally not on board with the theory that women marry their fathers and men marry their mothers. Too Freudian for my taste.  

Yeah, my husband has very few qualities of my dad (really the only one I can think of is an inability to communicate feelings, though the ultimate cause of that is fundamentally different imo), my primary reason for marrying him was because he was great with children, very unlike my dad.  And I am quite different than his mother and always was...she was very social, very active in others' lives, not the least bit shy, she had a high school degree and never went back to school though she could have for free being the wife of a professor while I wanted to be a professional student.  Similarity amounts to two things I can think of, both very service oriented and we both love Agatha Christie (I inherited her collection).  Looking at my sisters, none of them married a father figure and my brothers married similar women that were very different from Mom to the point that Mom feels a bit offended these days at times with her dementia causing her to be less tolerant of differences.

Looking at my inlaws, not seeing much resemblance either except for some very generic qualities.

[Hamba Tuhan]

11 hours ago, rongo said:

To be honest, I think your experience ... is vastly different than the stateside experience (often this is a good thing for you and yours).

Are you sure it's actually the entire US, or is it possibly just your mission?

We got a new mission president recently, and he's a bit nuts. It took a while for the impacts to start showing up, but they're certainly showing up now.

[sunstoned]

On 1/10/2018 at 5:39 PM, carbon dioxide said:

Nope.  Though mankind has gotten better at killing larger numbers of people.  Also I can see war being poured out on all nations much more now than in any time in the past.  For one simple reason and I go back to the proposed climate change models.  With climate change one big issue is water and food disruption.  This can cause great problems in any country.  This can easily lead to mass migrations which in turn leads to new conflicts as large numbers of people move into other countries.  The Syrian war may well be a taste of things to come.  It has been proposed that the start of the Syrian war was not just people being upset at Assad but due to a drought.  It caused internal conflict which created massive amounts of refugees.  These refugees have moved into other countries.  When they went to Europe, it created great strain on the nations there.  It got to the point that the EU itself could have collapsed.  Some nations put of fencing and walls and slowed the flow so things did not get a lot worse than it did.  If climate change models are correct, we will see mass migration of millions upon millions of people across the globe. This will cause nations that they go to become under great stress.  We can expect much violence to erupt and wars occurring leading to additional migrations.  The water issue is under reported in the media.  It is not just droughts but the ground water that supplies much of the fresh water in many areas is running out.  Water is being taken out far more rapidly than can be replaced.  We have issues coming up that we have never seen before.  I see no reason to believe the world is prepared for what is coming.

Question of the bolded part.  When you say now, are you referring to today or to a date range, say 100 years or so.  The reason I ask is that the 20th century with its two world wars with over 50 million killed in WW2 alone dwarfs any of the conflicts of the 21st century so far.  There has also been climate changes in human history such as the little ice age that occurred in 1645-1715.  From my view, this day, right now, it the very best time to ever be alive on this planet.

[Teancum]

On 1/10/2018 at 6:50 PM, carbon dioxide said:

Call it what you want. I am not the one that is saying that climate change will bring about more natural disasters and wars.  The UN and other people are saying it.   I simply apply what they are saying and it fits the narrative.  If what they are saying is true, the 21st century is going to a very disruptive century.  Far more will go on this century than any previous century in a long time. 

And  this is what apocalyptic believers have been saying forever and ever.

[JLHPROF]

26 minutes ago, Teancum said:

And  this is what apocalyptic believers have been saying forever and ever.

Look at you fulfilling scripture.

• Luke 12:45 But and if that servant say in his heart, My lord delayeth his coming; and shall begin to beat the menservants and maidens, and to eat and drink, and to be drunken;
  46 The lord of that servant will come in a day when he looketh not for him, and at an hour when he is not aware, and will cut him in sunder, and will appoint him his portion with the unbelievers.
   
• Matthew 24:37 But as the days of Noe were, so shall also the coming of the Son of man be.
  38 For as in the days that were before the flood they were eating and drinking, marrying and giving in marriage, until the day that Noe entered into the ark,
  39 And knew not until the flood came, and took them all away; so shall also the coming of the Son of man be.

[Teancum]

22 hours ago, JLHPROF said:

Look at you fulfilling scripture.

• Luke 12:45 But and if that servant say in his heart, My lord delayeth his coming; and shall begin to beat the menservants and maidens, and to eat and drink, and to be drunken;
  46 The lord of that servant will come in a day when he looketh not for him, and at an hour when he is not aware, and will cut him in sunder, and will appoint him his portion with the unbelievers.
   
• Matthew 24:37 But as the days of Noe were, so shall also the coming of the Son of man be.
  38 For as in the days that were before the flood they were eating and drinking, marrying and giving in marriage, until the day that Noe entered into the ark,
  39 And knew not until the flood came, and took them all away; so shall also the coming of the Son of man be.

Look at you using manipulative passages of so called scripture to close down critical and rational thinking about such things. 

I would write similar things to keep the troops in line. 

[carbon dioxide]

On 1/11/2018 at 11:17 PM, sunstoned said:

Question of the bolded part.  When you say now, are you referring to today or to a date range, say 100 years or so.  The reason I ask is that the 20th century with its two world wars with over 50 million killed in WW2 alone dwarfs any of the conflicts of the 21st century so far.  There has also been climate changes in human history such as the little ice age that occurred in 1645-1715.  From my view, this day, right now, it the very best time to ever be alive on this planet.

Sure, I would be rather be alive today than in any other period but things can change quickly.  We are more dependent on others for survival.  If another depression occurs, we will be in much worse shape to handle it as we are far more urban now than in the 1930s.  We can kill far more people much more quickly today than in WW2.  Our medical services is great but it can call come crashing down.  Antibiotic resistant bacteria could reverse many medical advances of the 20th century.  Its a great time to be alive but when it all comes crashing down, it will crash like the world has never seen before and I am not doing a Trump thing by saying that.

Edited January 14, 2018 by carbon dioxide

[carbon dioxide]

On 1/12/2018 at 3:32 PM, Teancum said:

And  this is what apocalyptic believers have been saying forever and ever.

Yes but this time we have science backing it up.  One does not need to be religious to know that big things are coming.

[cdowis]

del

Edited January 14, 2018 by cdowis

[cdowis]

1 hour ago, carbon dioxide said:

Sure, I would be rather be alive today than in any other period but things can change quickly.  We are more dependent on others for survival.  If another depression occurs, we will be in much worse shape to handle it as we are far more urban now than in the 1930s.  We can kill far more people much more quickly today than in WW2.  Our medical services is great but it can call come crashing down.  Antibiotic resistant bacteria could reverse many medical advances of the 20th century.  Its a great time to be alive but when it all comes crashing down, it will crash like the world has never seen before and I am not doing a Trump thing by saying that.

"What does survival without technology look like?"  James Burke

 

[cacheman]

On 1/10/2018 at 2:10 PM, stemelbow said:

 

Every time they say the surge has ended and they think the number will stay around this point or will increase from that point on, it has dropped again (they said so when there were 85,000 missionaries and again when there were 75,000 missionaries).  But you'd think at some point, they're going to get it right.  Hopefully now is the time.  

Despite previous projections,  mormon newsroom is now saying that the drop down to 'about 68,000' was 'anticipated'. 

https://www.mormonnewsroom.org/article/mission-adjustments-2018

Last year,  they stated that the numbers were on a steady upward trend.  

[ALarson]

1 hour ago, cacheman said:

Despite previous projections,  mormon newsroom is now saying that the drop down to 'about 68,000' was 'anticipated'. 

https://www.mormonnewsroom.org/article/mission-adjustments-2018

Last year,  they stated that the numbers were on a steady upward trend.  

And, in 2015 Elder Jeffery R. Holland was predicting that around now, there'd be 100,000 missionaries.

http://archive.sltrib.com/article.php?id=2249417&itype=CMSID

Quote

"We're projecting out probably within four years," apostle Jeffrey R. Holland told a radio interviewer, "the base-line number for the missionary force will be something around 100,000."

So, who anticipated it would drop, I wonder? 

From the article:

Quote

The initial wave of missionaries has since receded to about 68,000 missionaries, as anticipated. 

 

It was also just announced that there will be fewer missions as well:

https://www.sltrib.com/pb/religion/local/2018/02/01/fewer-missionaries-means-fewer-missions-for-mormon-church-former-utah-jazz-executive-dave-checketts-to-oversee-london-mission

Quote

With its missionary pool receding, the LDS Church announced Thursday that it is realigning the boundaries for 19 missions, creating five new ones and reducing the overall number of missions around the globe.

 

Edited February 2, 2018 by ALarson

[stemelbow]

1 hour ago, cacheman said:

Despite previous projections,  mormon newsroom is now saying that the drop down to 'about 68,000' was 'anticipated'. 

https://www.mormonnewsroom.org/article/mission-adjustments-2018

Last year,  they stated that the numbers were on a steady upward trend.  

I guess they don't care if they offer little white fibs here and there.  

[rongo]

13 minutes ago, ALarson said:

And, in 2015 Elder Jeffery R. Holland was predicting that around now, there'd be 100,000 missionaries.

http://archive.sltrib.com/article.php?id=2249417&itype=CMSID

So, who anticipated it would drop, I wonder? 

From the article:

The Newsroom "68,000 as anticipated" does have a "Oceania is at war with Eastasia. Oceania has always been at war with Eastasia" sound to it, doesn't it, in light of the quotes over the years since The Surge.

Edited February 2, 2018 by rongo

[ALarson]

1 hour ago, rongo said:

The Newsroom "68,000 as anticipated" does have a "Oceania is at war with Eastasia. Oceania has always been at war with Eastasia" sound to it, doesn't it, in light of the quotes over the years since The Surge.

Yes.

One thing I wanted to add was that my Bishop mentioned in our meeting on Sunday (Bishopric meeting) that our SP told him there are some rumblings or rumors from above that the missionary age may go back up to 19 years for the young men.  I don't know if this will happen, but I'd support that.  This change has been pretty disastrous for many in our area.  I do know that for some though, it was a positive thing.

I hope they leave the age the same for the young women as I think that has been extremely positive overall.

It'll be interesting to see if any changes are made.

[rongo]

10 minutes ago, ALarson said:

Yes.

One thing I wanted to add was that my Bishop mentioned in our meeting on Sunday (Bishopric meeting) that our SP told him there are some rumblings or rumors from above that the missionary age may go back up to 19 years for the young men.  I don't know if this will happen, but I'd support that.  This change has been pretty disastrous for many in our area.  I do know that for some though, it was a positive thing.

I hope they leave the age the same for the young women as I think that has been extremely positive overall.

It'll be interesting to see if any changes are made.

I think that would be a very good change back. I'm not sure what they would do with the "gas bubble" --- the gap in the transition when the cutoff is made. There will be a year with far fewer elders than normal, because most boys are now going at 18. Won't that result in a year with far too few elders until it stabilizes?

[clarkgoble]

1 hour ago, ALarson said:

And, in 2015 Elder Jeffery R. Holland was predicting that around now, there'd be 100,000 missionaries.

http://archive.sltrib.com/article.php?id=2249417&itype=CMSID

So, who anticipated it would drop, I wonder? 

Everyone but Holland. This was widely discussed at the time.

http://www.timesandseasons.org/index.php/2017/06/clark-goble-2/

 

[ALarson]

4 minutes ago, clarkgoble said:

Everyone but Holland. This was widely discussed at the time.

"Everyone"?  I don't think so....(I'll give you that many believed they'd drop).  And yes, I've read the discussions.

Others projected that the numbers would increase or wouldn't decline to what they are now.  Don't you remember Scott's countdown clock? 

Edited February 2, 2018 by ALarson

[rongo]

9 minutes ago, ALarson said:

Others projected that the numbers would increase or wouldn't decline to what they are now.  Don't you remember Scott's countdown clock? 

I forgot about the countdown clock. Yes, most people were caught up in the heady projections about ever increasing numbers of missionaries. Even if missionaries kept going at that rate, the falling birth rates of the last decades were bound to depress missionary numbers, just out of sheer number of potential missionaries. 

[clarkgoble]

13 minutes ago, ALarson said:

"Everyone"?  I don't think so....(I'll give you that many believed they'd drop).  And yes, I've read the discussions.

Others projected that the numbers would increase or wouldn't decline to what they are now.  Don't you remember Scott's countdown clock? 

I confess I don't remember many predicting increased numbers nor do I know Scott's countdown clock. (That must have been from before I was posting here) Everyone I read said you'd have short term high numbers due to overlap and then you'd settle back down to trend. I don't doubt some thought otherwise but it's hard to know the statistical basis for such claims. 

[ALarson]

19 minutes ago, rongo said:

I think that would be a very good change back. I'm not sure what they would do with the "gas bubble" --- the gap in the transition when the cutoff is made. There will be a year with far fewer elders than normal, because most boys are now going at 18. Won't that result in a year with far too few elders until it stabilizes?

There would definitely be a drop in number of missionaries for a period of time (but not in the numbers of young women going out).  I think with the lower number of missions now and the over abundance of elders in some areas, it would even out and go smoothly until the numbers went up again.  I guess we will just have to wait and see if this change is made and if so, what the results are.  

[Exiled]

11 minutes ago, ALarson said:

There would definitely be a drop in number of missionaries for a period of time (but not in the numbers of young women going out).  I think with the lower number of missions now and the over abundance of elders in some areas, it would even out and go smoothly until the numbers went up again.  I guess we will just have to wait and see if this change is made and if so, what the results are.  

They probably need to raise the mission age further, if converts are the goal.  My guess is that missionaries at 22 or 23 are a heck of a lot better than 18 year olds.  More people might listen to more seasoned, mature missionaries who would be a lot smarter than their younger, immature counterparts.  Mission presidents would have less baby-sitting duties as well.  In the early church it was an adults job.  However, there is the falling away rate that the go on a mission, right out of high-school plan sought to correct. 

[carbon dioxide]

On 1/10/2018 at 5:38 PM, california boy said:

Well I think that is just it.  Few people believe that natural disasters are caused by God.  If it is God's way of punishing us, it seems to be lost on most of the population.  Kind of a waste of a good firestorm don't you think?

Natural disasters are generally not caused by God.  They are "natural" events just like other natural events like a person having bowel movements during the course of a day.  God however can cause disasters if he wants but we should not attribute any natural event to be caused by God. 

[carbon dioxide]

The missionary numbers will go up and down over the course of a year.  I think we have enough missionaries out there.  It is pretty clear that missionaries are not overworked with teaching appointments every day. 

Edited February 2, 2018 by carbon dioxide

[clarkgoble]

20 minutes ago, Exiled said:

They probably need to raise the mission age further, if converts are the goal.  My guess is that missionaries at 22 or 23 are a heck of a lot better than 18 year olds.  More people might listen to more seasoned, mature missionaries wh o would be a lot smarter than their younger, immature counterparts.  Mission presidents would have less baby-sitting duties as well.  In the early church it was an adults job.  However, there is the falling away rate that the go on a mission, right out of high-school plan sought to correct. 

I suspect there's a balancing at play. Yes older people are more mature and almost certainly more effective. But also many people by 22 or 23 are engaged or at least is strong romantic relationships. They're also further along in college and in some majors it's hard to leave at that point and come back. (Think physics or math for instance)