L D S Membership Numbers

[mfbukowski]

A bunch of assertions that don't seem to be supported by the data when one looks at California demographics and population trends. But if it suits your argument, have at it.

https://www.google.c...lient=firefox-a

That's clearly debatable. And is your data from 2013? Of course not. There are drastic changes happening as we speak.

Edited June 3, 2013 by mfbukowski

[EllenMaksoud]

That's incorrect in my experience. I was a bishop during that time and we lost no one- even though we are in Los Angeles, one of the most liberal cities in a liberal state.

It is inconceivable to me that everyone else lost 50% and we were the only exception. We had members opposed to the church position, - a very small minority, but they stayed.

I most certainly do not advocate SSM, and it conflicts me that a small group of people would suffer, in spite of the fact that what they wish for is not pleasing to Heavenly Father. It makes me very happy to know that my sole role in any of this is Prayer.

[rockpond]

On June 22, 2009 I started a topic titled LDS Membership Numbers.

First I will list the M/C for the total church since 1999.

M = Members

C = Congregations

1999: 416.9 M/C (10,752,986/25,793)

2000: 427.1 M/C (11,068,861/25,915)

2001: 436.8 M/C (11,394,522/26,084)

2002: 448.4 M/C (11,721,548/26,143)

2003: 456.8 M/C (11,985,254/26,237)

2004: 460.3 M/C (12,275,822/26,670)

2005: 463.7 M/C (12,560,869/27,087)

2006: 468.4 M/C (12,868,606/27,475)

2007: 474.1 M/C (13,193,999/27,827)

2008: 480.6 M/C (13,508,509/28,109)

2009: 486.4 M/C (13,824,854/28,424)

2010: 493.1 M/C (14,131,467/28,660)

2011: 501.7 M/C (14,441,346/28,784)

2012: 509.5 M/C (14,782,473/29,014)

Since 1999 the increase in congregations is 12.5%, and the increase in members is 37.5%.

In addition to the total membership I am tracking 20 different areas. Some of those 20 areas had some interesting changes from 2011 to 2012.

Alberta added 2 congregations but lost 133 members.

Ghana decreased its M/C by 23 from 377 to 354.

Both Mexico and Peru increased their M/C significantly by 27 and 23 respectively. Mexico is now at 664 and Peru is at 671.

Attached is the chart which I have maintained since 2009.

Very interesting data. As has been noted... a ~20% increase in members per congregation has to mean either that (1) the church is letting wards/branches get about 20% larger before splitting, (2) there has been an increase in inactivity of about 20% since 1999, or (3) some combination of those two scenarios.

I could see #1 being true based solely on the anecdotal evidence of my ward where we bursting at the seams before boundaries were realigned.

There is also some anecdotal support for #2 based on Elder Marlin Jensen's Q&A at USU when he said that we haven't had a period of apostasy like the one we are currently in since Kirtland. (Assuming those people who leave don't have their names removed.)

But, I suspect, it's probably the combined effect of both.

[Mark Beesley]

https://www.google.c...lient=firefox-a

That's clearly debatable. And is your data from 2013? Of course not. There are drastic changes happening as we speak.

Certainly there are changes. The problem lies in trying to attribute demographic changes to any single factor. There was a defense industry boom in the 1980s which brought significant economic and population growth to California. That boom is over, and so we experience change. Most of the people leaving California are non-natives, those who came for a particular reason, and are now leaving. Native Californians are less likely to leave the state than about any other state according to a report I read recently from a USC professor. I don't find the taxes here particularly burdensome. I enjoy lots of benefits living in California. I don't mind paying for them.

[ERayR]

If there are many members moving out, as you suggest, and there is still an increase in membership, this means that children of record and convert baptisms are making up the difference and then some. There should be a positive association with the number of members and the number of congregations. If membership increases while the number of congregations decreases, the simplest explanation is that there are many official members who are not attending.

Not really. It could be(as it is in my area) that congregation size is increasing. We have one building in town and it serves three wards and a branch. It is bursting at the seams but it is not cost effective to build another building. We have had about a 15% growth in church membership over the past 3 or 4 years in our area.

[ERayR]

I would guess that that is about right for average sacrament meeting attendance outside Utah.

I don't know about elsewhere but in my area that would have been close, 150 to 160, but now it is about 190 to 200.

[T-Shirt]

the problem is that some are assuming that all new converts in a year must be divided evenly into brand new congregations. In reality, this just isn't what happens. Given that most of the Church growth is occurring outside of the United States, especially in developing countries, when a unit is created in these areas, it, quite often, will be a branch of less than fifty people, and sometimes less than twenty. These branches can add over one hundred members before becoming a ward and then they can add an additional one to two hundred more before be considered for division. Given that most of the growth is happening in areas like South America and Africa, this is exactly how the statistics would look without speculating that the activity rates are dropping.

[rockpond]

the problem is that some are assuming that all new converts in a year must be divided evenly into brand new congregations. In reality, this just isn't what happens. Given that most of the Church growth is occurring outside of the United States, especially in developing countries, when a unit is created in these areas, it, quite often, will be a branch of less than fifty people, and sometimes less than twenty. These branches can add over one hundred members before becoming a ward and then they can add an additional one to two hundred more before be considered for division. Given that most of the growth is happening in areas like South America and Africa, this is exactly how the statistics would look without speculating that the activity rates are dropping.

But the OP is using "congregations" which includes both branches and wards. So, if what you are saying is true (and a driving force), we'd see the members per congregation number decreasing, not increasing.

[canard78]

the problem is that some are assuming that all new converts in a year must be divided evenly into brand new congregations. In reality, this just isn't what happens. Given that most of the Church growth is occurring outside of the United States, especially in developing countries, when a unit is created in these areas, it, quite often, will be a branch of less than fifty people, and sometimes less than twenty. These branches can add over one hundred members before becoming a ward and then they can add an additional one to two hundred more before be considered for division. Given that most of the growth is happening in areas like South America and Africa, this is exactly how the statistics would look without speculating that the activity rates are dropping.

Did you open the attachment? It cuts by country and the trend is similar in every country. Both old established places like USA/UK and the new ones. Your theory would work if we only had global data, but the country level contradicts it.

[canard78]

But the OP is using "congregations" which includes both branches and wards. So, if what you are saying is true (and a driving force), we'd see the members per congregation number decreasing, not increasing.

This is also a very good point.

[Robert F. Smith]

...................................

. Native Californians are less likely to leave the state than about any other state according to a report I read recently from a USC professor. I don't find the taxes here particularly burdensome. I enjoy lots of benefits living in California. I don't mind paying for them.

You've got a point, Mark.

I am a native Californian who moved to Utah for family reasons, but last January-February in Provo, I was truly suffering from the cold and snow and wishing, dearly wishing I was back in southern California.

[crixus]

I'm just curious. Does anyone here really believe there are more than 7 million people on this planet who actually consider themselves LDS?

[Tacenda]

I'm just curious. Does anyone here really believe there are more than 7 million people on this planet who actually consider themselves LDS?

I do, but that doesn't necessarily mean they're active.

[canard78]

I'm just curious. Does anyone here really believe there are more than 7 million people on this planet who actually consider themselves LDS?

Themselves? No.

Obviously as long as their names are on the records the active LDS would consider all 14m to be LDS (it's just that they're currently a 'lost sheep')

[crixus]

Themselves? No.

Obviously as long as their names are on the records the active LDS would consider all 14m to be LDS (it's just that they're currently a 'lost sheep')

What I find particularly deceptive is when LDS News releases speak of "10 million strong," or "12 million strong" or "14 million strong," as they do whenever the official number breaks those barriers. I mean even they have to realize they are just numbers referring to the people they have on the rolls. It doesn't account for the millions who have left the faith. If you're only 50% active and you have fourteen million on the rolls, then you only have "seven million strong." The Church is probably, at best 35% active. And that's being very charitable given the fact that the majority of the Church exists outside North America. Activity rates in South America are generally between 18-25%. National census's in Brazil and Chile (in which every citizen must and does participate) showed that those who considered themselves Mormons were much lower than what the Church claimed. Activity rates were 19-21%, which is quite significant considering the Church claims roughly two million members from those two countries alone.

Edited June 5, 2013 by crixus

[canard78]

What I find particularly deceptive is when LDS News releases speak of "10 million strong," or "12 million strong" or "14 million strong," as they do whenever the official number breaks those barriers. I mean even they have to realize they are just numbers referring to the people they have on the rolls. It doesn't account for the millions who have left the faith. If you're only 50% active and you have fourteen million on the rolls, then you only have "seven million strong." The Church is probably, at best 35% active. And that's being very charitable given the fact that the majority of the Church exists outside North America. Activity rates in South America are generally between 18-25%. National census's in Brazil and Chile (in which every citizen must and does participate) showed that those who considered themselves Mormons were much lower than what the Church claimed. Activity rates were 19-21%, which is quite significant considering the Church claims roughly two million members from those two countries alone.

The media always love a big number.

I agree that the data above combined with a couple of other sources would suggest a global activity rate of around 25-30% and it does appear to be declining slightly.

Just because someone's not active today doesn't mean they won't be tomorrow. As such, as long as a member leaves their name on the list they are members. Some less-active Mormons would also consider themselves to be 'non-practising Mormons.' Do we count them or not? I suppose the church could also publish a 'tithing payers' / 'sacrament attendance' / or 'TR holder' figure. But I'm not sure that's really anyone's business. I don't expect the Catholic Church to report a trend on the number of people who go to confession.

[Calm]

when LDS News releases speak of "10 million strong," or "12 million strong" or "14 million strong,"

CFR that LDS Newsroom uses such phrasing as "____ million strong".

[Avatar4321]

The media always love a big number.

I agree that the data above combined with a couple of other sources would suggest a global activity rate of around 25-30% and it does appear to be declining slightly.

Just because someone's not active today doesn't mean they won't be tomorrow. As such, as long as a member leaves their name on the list they are members. Some less-active Mormons would also consider themselves to be 'non-practising Mormons.' Do we count them or not? I suppose the church could also publish a 'tithing payers' / 'sacrament attendance' / or 'TR holder' figure. But I'm not sure that's really anyone's business. I don't expect the Catholic Church to report a trend on the number of people who go to confession.

I would likely qualify as less active right now since I havent been able to make Sunday services for a while. But Ive never lost my testimony. Indeed, Ive done my best to do my calling and home teach despite not being able to attend on Sundays frequently.

Quite frankly, I would be upset if someone tried to take me off the rolls. Or say that I wasnt mormon.

Edited June 5, 2013 by Avatar4321

[rodheadlee]

What I find particularly deceptive is when LDS News releases speak of "10 million strong," or "12 million strong" or "14 million strong," as they do whenever the official number breaks those barriers. I mean even they have to realize they are just numbers referring to the people they have on the rolls. It doesn't account for the millions who have left the faith. If you're only 50% active and you have fourteen million on the rolls, then you only have "seven million strong." The Church is probably, at best 35% active. And that's being very charitable given the fact that the majority of the Church exists outside North America. Activity rates in South America are generally between 18-25%. National census's in Brazil and Chile (in which every citizen must and does participate) showed that those who considered themselves Mormons were much lower than what the Church claimed. Activity rates were 19-21%, which is quite significant considering the Church claims roughly two million members from those two countries alone.

It's a sign of the times, the gate is narrow and few find it. People trust in the wisdom of man rather than God,

[canard78]

It's a sign of the times, the gate is narrow and few find it. People trust in the wisdom of man rather than God,

With an activity rate of about 30% there are around 4 million Mormons. That's 0.05% of the world population. That's a pretty narrow gate.

Except...

Mormonism is neither the gate nor the way.

In 1978, under the direction of President Spencer W. Kimball, the first presidency made the statement that: “The great religious leaders of the world such as Mohammed, Confucius, and the Reformers, as well as philosophers including Socrates, Plato, and others, received a portion of God’s light. Moral truths were given to them by God to enlighten whole nations and to bring a higher level of understanding to individuals.

https://www.lds.org/ensign/1988/01/i-have-a-question?lang=eng

In 2000 an article in the Ensign quoted B.H. Roberts of the quorum of the seventy who said: “While the Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-day Saints is established for the instruction of men; and it is one of God’s instrumentalities for making known the truth yet he (meaning God) is not limited to that institution for such purposes, neither in time nor place. God raises up wise men and prophets here and there among all the children of men, of their own tongue and nationality, speaking to them through means that they can comprehend. … All the great teachers are servants of God; among all nations and in all ages. They are inspired men, appointed to instruct God’s children according to the conditions in the midst of which he finds them.”

http://www.lds.org/ensign/2000/08/a-latter-day-saint-perspective-on-muhammad?lang=eng

Elder Dieter F. Uchtdorf, “Latter-day Saints believe that all human beings are God’s children and that He loves all of us. He has inspired not only people of the Bible and the Book of Mormon but other people as well to carry out His purposes through all cultures and parts of the world. God inspires not only Latter-day Saints but also founders, teachers, philosophers, and reformers of other Christian and non-Christian religions. The restored gospel holds a positive relationship with other religions. Intolerance is always a sign of weakness. The Latter-day Saint perspective is that of the eleventh article of faith: “We claim the privilege of worshiping Almighty God according to the dictates of our own conscience, and allow all men the same privilege, let them worship how, where, or what they may” (Articles of Faith 1:11).

http://rsc.byu.edu/archived/global-mormonism-21st-century/20-church-cross-cultural-world

God's working through many teachers, philosophers and guides every day. God sends the majority of his children to live and die in an environment where the words of Buddha, Confucius, Lao Tzu, Veda Vyasa and Mohammad will be their guide and standard. Given God has a handle on it and raises up, in the words of our inspired leaders, other inspired men and prophets I wouldn't be so quick to assume that all must enter the gate of Mormonism to enjoy the gifts of eternal life.

Matthew 25, Christ's final words in public teach a very simple principle:

31 ¶When the Son of man shall come in his glory, and all the holy angels with him, then shall he sit upon the throne of his glory... And before him shall be gathered all nations... Then shall the King say... I say unto you, Inasmuch as ye have done it unto one of the least of these my brethren, ye have done it unto me... And these (righteous) shall go away... into life eternal.

Let's hope that the gate isn't narrow because too few seek out the hungry, sick, imprisoned, fatherless, beggar... That requirement is an interfaith and cross-cultural one. Probably why every religion has been inspired to make the 'golden rule' a core principle.

[Thinking]

Just because someone's not active today doesn't mean they won't be tomorrow. As such, as long as a member leaves their name on the list they are members. Some less-active Mormons would also consider themselves to be 'non-practising Mormons.' Do we count them or not? I suppose the church could also publish a 'tithing payers' / 'sacrament attendance' / or 'TR holder' figure. But I'm not sure that's really anyone's business. I don't expect the Catholic Church to report a trend on the number of people who go to confession.

In my opinion the most appropriate number to publish is average weekly attendance.

[canard78]

In my opinion the most appropriate number to publish is average weekly attendance.

I agree. It's a simple figure, collected in every congregation and reported via MLS. They know it. I used to know it as a branch president for the stake (they sent the Bishops/BPs a report from MLS.

[ERayR]

With an activity rate of about 30% there are around 4 million Mormons. That's 0.05% of the world population. That's a pretty narrow gate.

Except...

Mormonism is neither the gate nor the way.

Baptism by one having authority is that gate and it is indeed narrow but broadened somewhat by vicarious ordinances performed in the temple.

[rodheadlee]

With an activity rate of about 30% there are around 4 million Mormons. That's 0.05% of the world population. That's a pretty narrow gate.

Except...

Mormonism is neither the gate nor the way.

God's working through many teachers, philosophers and guides every day. God sends the majority of his children to live and die in an environment where the words of Buddha, Confucius, Lao Tzu, Veda Vyasa and Mohammad will be their guide and standard. Given God has a handle on it and raises up, in the words of our inspired leaders, other inspired men and prophets I wouldn't be so quick to assume that all must enter the gate of Mormonism to enjoy the gifts of eternal life.

Matthew 25, Christ's final words in public teach a very simple principle:

Let's hope that the gate isn't narrow because too few seek out the hungry, sick, imprisoned, fatherless, beggar... That requirement is an interfaith and cross-cultural one. Probably why every religion has been inspired to make the 'golden rule' a core principle.

And so I agree with you somewhat, except if I have tasted the fruit that is sweetest of all, I should discard it, because others are? Can Buddha, Confucius, Lao Tzu, Veda Vyasa and Mohammad offer me a life of eternity with my wife? Has God given them the authority to seal me to my family? For the past year I've been in 3rd world countries seeking the hungry and helping to feed them so I understand your concern. An interesting thing I noticed when looking for a meeting house on the membership map on the church website is how many wards there are in Guatemala just over the border from Tapachula, Mexico. Yet there are few on the Mexico side. Why do you think that is?

Edited June 6, 2013 by rodheadlee

[Johnnie Cake]

The church is a private corporation sole, owned entirely by one man, Thomas S. Monson, the president of the LDS Church. All stock and assets are his and his alone to direct and do with as he sees fit to do with them.

Only information that he wishes to release will be released…be it membership numbers or financial records. And as long as the actively participating members of the church continue to pay tithing and participate without demanding that this information be release and a more public accounting of church membership and finances be made…nothing will change….since President Monson will have no motivation to change the status quo.

Edited June 6, 2013 by Johnnie Cake