L D S Membership Numbers

[Thinking]

On June 22, 2009 I started a topic titled LDS Membership Numbers.

First I will list the M/C for the total church since 1999.

M = Members

C = Congregations

1999: 416.9 M/C (10,752,986/25,793)

2000: 427.1 M/C (11,068,861/25,915)

2001: 436.8 M/C (11,394,522/26,084)

2002: 448.4 M/C (11,721,548/26,143)

2003: 456.8 M/C (11,985,254/26,237)

2004: 460.3 M/C (12,275,822/26,670)

2005: 463.7 M/C (12,560,869/27,087)

2006: 468.4 M/C (12,868,606/27,475)

2007: 474.1 M/C (13,193,999/27,827)

2008: 480.6 M/C (13,508,509/28,109)

2009: 486.4 M/C (13,824,854/28,424)

2010: 493.1 M/C (14,131,467/28,660)

2011: 501.7 M/C (14,441,346/28,784)

2012: 509.5 M/C (14,782,473/29,014)

Since 1999 the increase in congregations is 12.5%, and the increase in members is 37.5%.

In addition to the total membership I am tracking 20 different areas. Some of those 20 areas had some interesting changes from 2011 to 2012.

Alberta added 2 congregations but lost 133 members.

Ghana decreased its M/C by 23 from 377 to 354.

Both Mexico and Peru increased their M/C significantly by 27 and 23 respectively. Mexico is now at 664 and Peru is at 671.

Attached is the chart which I have maintained since 2009.

LDS Church Membership 2008-2012.pdf

[EllenMaksoud]

On June 22, 2009 I started a topic titled LDS Membership Numbers.

First I will list the M/C for the total church since 1999.

M = Members

C = Congregations

1999: 416.9 M/C (10,752,986/25,793)

2000: 427.1 M/C (11,068,861/25,915)

2001: 436.8 M/C (11,394,522/26,084)

2002: 448.4 M/C (11,721,548/26,143)

2003: 456.8 M/C (11,985,254/26,237)

2004: 460.3 M/C (12,275,822/26,670)

2005: 463.7 M/C (12,560,869/27,087)

2006: 468.4 M/C (12,868,606/27,475)

2007: 474.1 M/C (13,193,999/27,827)

2008: 480.6 M/C (13,508,509/28,109)

2009: 486.4 M/C (13,824,854/28,424)

2010: 493.1 M/C (14,131,467/28,660)

2011: 501.7 M/C (14,441,346/28,784)

2012: 509.5 M/C (14,782,473/29,014)

Since 1999 the increase in congregations is 12.5%, and the increase in members is 37.5%.

In addition to the total membership I am tracking 20 different areas. Some of those 20 areas had some interesting changes from 2011 to 2012.

Alberta added 2 congregations but lost 133 members.

Ghana decreased its M/C by 23 from 377 to 354.

Both Mexico and Peru increased their M/C significantly by 27 and 23 respectively. Mexico is now at 664 and Peru is at 671.

Attached is the chart which I have maintained since 2009.

I have seen stated, not that I can remember who said it, that our church lost about half of it's membership in California because of the Prop 8 ructions. What is your call on the subject ?

[canard78]

On June 22, 2009 I started a topic titled LDS Membership Numbers.

First I will list the M/C for the total church since 1999.

M = Members

C = Congregations

1999: 416.9 M/C (10,752,986/25,793)

2000: 427.1 M/C (11,068,861/25,915)

2001: 436.8 M/C (11,394,522/26,084)

2002: 448.4 M/C (11,721,548/26,143)

2003: 456.8 M/C (11,985,254/26,237)

2004: 460.3 M/C (12,275,822/26,670)

2005: 463.7 M/C (12,560,869/27,087)

2006: 468.4 M/C (12,868,606/27,475)

2007: 474.1 M/C (13,193,999/27,827)

2008: 480.6 M/C (13,508,509/28,109)

2009: 486.4 M/C (13,824,854/28,424)

2010: 493.1 M/C (14,131,467/28,660)

2011: 501.7 M/C (14,441,346/28,784)

2012: 509.5 M/C (14,782,473/29,014)

Since 1999 the increase in congregations is 12.5%, and the increase in members is 37.5%.

In addition to the total membership I am tracking 20 different areas. Some of those 20 areas had some interesting changes from 2011 to 2012.

Alberta added 2 congregations but lost 133 members.

Ghana decreased its M/C by 23 from 377 to 354.

Both Mexico and Peru increased their M/C significantly by 27 and 23 respectively. Mexico is now at 664 and Peru is at 671.

Attached is the chart which I have maintained since 2009.

Fascinating. What are the implications of this? If the m/c ratio is increasing that would suggest one of two things:

1) Congregations are being left to get bigger before splitting.

2) Inactivity rates are increasing

I wondered if there was something on "members are living longer but activity rates are stable" but I don't think that sticks, it would be a factor within 1 or 2.

I've no idea what the global trend for 1) is. In my experience it is a trend for splitting earlier.

What are your sources for state/country level reports?

And do you have any idea what it might have looked line 40-50 years ago (during the '60s 'boom').

[Thinking]

What are your sources for state/country level reports?

http://www.mormonnewsroom.org/facts-and-statistics/

On the right side of the page you can access state/country level reports.

[Thinking]

I have seen stated, not that I can remember who said it, that our church lost about half of it's membership in California because of the Prop 8 ructions. What is your call on the subject ?

SInce 2008, California has lost 8 congregations while increasing membership by 21,314. In my opinion, this suggests that many people have left the church, though not officially.

[EllenMaksoud]

SInce 2008, California has lost 8 congregations while increasing membership by 21,314. In my opinion, this suggests that many people have left the church, though not officially.

In my experience, the "other" side seems unafraid to distort the truth, and engage in wishful fact finding.

[canard78]

The 2000 Mexico census shows a 'self-identification as Mormon' rate of 24% (methodology and comparison to Brazil/Chile suggest it is probably more like 27%). This gives a rough guide of 150 active/congregation in MX. In the UK the average (from experience) would be somewhere around 150 too (probably more like 120). Other sources also suggest 150 active is about right as a rough estimate (outside the Wasatch front). Your data suggests very little real growth and increasing inactivity in real terms.

Sources for 150 as a rough average active outside Utah:

http://www.deseretne...ime.html?pg=all

http://mormanity.blo...divide-and.html

http://www.lds.net/f...-ward-size.html

Edited June 3, 2013 by canard78

[canard78]

In my experience, the "other" side seems unafraid to distort the truth, and engage in wishful fact finding.

50% - where did you hear that figure from in the first place?

[EllenMaksoud]

50% - where did you hear that figure from in the first place?

I think I read it online. "Huffington Post" ???

[Robert F. Smith]

SInce 2008, California has lost 8 congregations while increasing membership by 21,314. In my opinion, this suggests that many people have left the church, though not officially.

Your surmise may be way off. My ward in Palos Verdes Stake in southern California lost about half its members in recent years (since 2008), but that was nearly all attributable to fully rational factors not including abandoning the Church: Most (including me) moved to Utah. The primary reason for this. Family -- many were retiring after lifelong careers in L.A., and wanted to be near their grandchildren in Utah. Our bishop and our stake patriarch did that and are right here in Utah Valley. Others have done the same, and I keep meeting them. One man from Tijuana, who worked as a carpenter in southern California for many years (after serving a mission in Mexico City, and later being a bishop), also recently worked on my house here in Provo. He came to Provo only because he and his wife want to be near their children and grandchildren.

These are large-scale demographic changes. Doing accurate math may require balancing a variety of figures you have yet to consider.

[Robert F. Smith]

I have seen stated, not that I can remember who said it, that our church lost about half of it's membership in California because of the Prop 8 ructions. What is your call on the subject ?

I was there in southern California during the entire Prop 8 campaign and saw nothing of the sort. Such figures are absurd and likely constitute deliberate agitprop.

[Thinking]

Your surmise may be way off. My ward in Palos Verdes Stake in southern California lost about half its members in recent years (since 2008), but that was nearly all attributable to fully rational factors not including abandoning the Church: Most (including me) moved to Utah. The primary reason for this. Family -- many were retiring after lifelong careers in L.A., and wanted to be near their grandchildren in Utah. Our bishop and our stake patriarch did that and are right here in Utah Valley. Others have done the same, and I keep meeting them. One man from Tijuana, who worked as a carpenter in southern California for many years (after serving a mission in Mexico City, and later being a bishop), also recently worked on my house here in Provo. He came to Provo only because he and his wife want to be near their children and grandchildren.

These are large-scale demographic changes. Doing accurate math may require balancing a variety of figures you have yet to consider.

If there are many members moving out, as you suggest, and there is still an increase in membership, this means that children of record and convert baptisms are making up the difference and then some. There should be a positive association with the number of members and the number of congregations. If membership increases while the number of congregations decreases, the simplest explanation is that there are many official members who are not attending.

Edited June 3, 2013 by Thinking

[canard78]

[canard78]

Your surmise may be way off. My ward in Palos Verdes Stake in southern California lost about half its members in recent years (since 2008), but that was nearly all attributable to fully rational factors not including abandoning the Church: Most (including me) moved to Utah. The primary reason for this. Family -- many were retiring after lifelong careers in L.A., and wanted to be near their grandchildren in Utah. Our bishop and our stake patriarch did that and are right here in Utah Valley. Others have done the same, and I keep meeting them. One man from Tijuana, who worked as a carpenter in southern California for many years (after serving a mission in Mexico City, and later being a bishop), also recently worked on my house here in Provo. He came to Provo only because he and his wife want to be near their children and grandchildren.

These are large-scale demographic changes. Doing accurate math may require balancing a variety of figures you have yet to consider.

A straight read of the membership or the congregations could reduce comparability in a single state. But it's the m/c that is the telling figure.

Also, in states or countries where there is less migration this is less of a factor. Why would the rate of migration be increasing every year?

I've done some data crunching and worldwide the activity rates seem to have dropped by nearly 2% in 5 years globally. In Mexico they have dropped by approx 3% in 5 years (based in an assumption of an average of 150 at sacrament meeting globally).

The only way for this to not be the case is if wards are being allowed to get bigger before splitting. If in 2008 the average size before splitting 2 wards into 3 was 150 active each then in 2009 it was 152, 2010: 154, 2011: 157, 2012: 159.

[Storm Rider]

assumptions are dangerous things; when you are not intimately involved in the actual data it is very difficult to make any realistic deductions. It is far better to just state what the rolls state without making any deductions based on personal assumptions. What is clear is that the demise of the Church and the hordes of people vacating the Church are grossly exaggerated by our friendly, faith-promoting critics.

[canard78]

assumptions are dangerous things; when you are not intimately involved in the actual data it is very difficult to make any realistic deductions. It is far better to just state what the rolls state without making any deductions based on personal assumptions. What is clear is that the demise of the Church and the hordes of people vacating the Church are grossly exaggerated by our friendly, faith-promoting critics.

I'd be very happy to work with the full data set - only this is the best we have access to.

There are, however, certain data sources that are illuminating:

In 2012 there were 14,782,473 members. We added 122,273 and 272,330 converts.¹

There is a world death rate of 0.83% and a Utah death rate of 0.7%. The last reported Mormon death rate was 0.39%. We are generally healthier, but not that much. The non-mormons Utah state would need a death rate of 1.2% (worse than Ethiopia and Uganda) to get to a Utah rate of 0.7%. The worst state in USA is 0.9%. This suggests the church are actually not recording about 50-60% of their deaths. This is probably due in part to inactive deaths going unrecorded. A normal death rate would put us at a loss of about 100,000/year - there are only 53,476 unaccounted for in our net gain in 2012 (after counting in the COR and converts). So that would suggest the number of members excommunicated/resigning is very negligible (given most of the 53,476 will be deaths - and 50,000 more unaccounted for).

Sources for this:

http://www.lds.org/general-conference/2013/04/statistical-report-2012?lang=eng

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_death_rate

http://www.worldlifeexpectancy.com/usa/utah-all-races-death-rate

http://www.lds.org/general-conference/1983/04/statistical-report-1982?lang=eng

So... where does that leave us.

We had a net gain of 2.4% this year (after deaths/name removals). That should have been enough for about 2,300 new congregations (again, assuming a trend of 150 active/C). Instead there was an extra 230 congregations. A growth of 0.8%. If you give a more generous avg congregation of 200 active/unit (very generous!) then we're netting out at 46,000. An increase vs 2011 of 0.3%.

[canard78]

This is an interesting thread on the LDS techy forum:

http://tech.lds.org/forum/viewtopic.php?f=14&t=15522

I looked at Church membership statistics from 1999 to 2011. Using my TI-84 graphing calculator, I determined that the data points approximate a cubic polynomial (r^2 > 0.55). This model predicts that Brother Brook P. Hales will announce 280,775 - 280,776 convert baptisms this year. If the number continues to follow this model, the number will decrease to 280,102-280,103 by the end of this year, and keep decreasing until that number reaches 0 between 2022 and 2023.

Of course any forward model can only trend history. There's no knowing what the change in missionary numbers and 'Mormon Moment' might do for the church. Time will tell.

The model was close... it was 272,330 (8,000 less than predicted, which would suggest the rate of growth is slowing faster than even the model expects).

[mfbukowski]

I have seen stated, not that I can remember who said it, that our church lost about half of it's membership in California because of the Prop 8 ructions. What is your call on the subject ?

That's incorrect in my experience. I was a bishop during that time and we lost no one- even though we are in Los Angeles, one of the most liberal cities in a liberal state.

It is inconceivable to me that everyone else lost 50% and we were the only exception. We had members opposed to the church position, - a very small minority, but they stayed.

[mfbukowski]

SInce 2008, California has lost 8 congregations while increasing membership by 21,314. In my opinion, this suggests that many people have left the church, though not officially.

That is a hasty conclusion. My English speaking stake recently consolidated with a Spanish stake which over-layed our stake. Both stakes occupied the same geographic area. That would appear to be the elimination of a stake and several wards, when indeed all that happened was that the members of two smaller stakes were combined into one larger one.

There are many explanations possible for these numbers.

In fact, looking at these numbers this one change could account for much of these numbers. But notice the membership numbers are still up.

Statistics are always subject to interpretation.

Edited June 3, 2013 by mfbukowski

[mfbukowski]

Sources for 150 as a rough average active outside Utah:

I would guess that that is about right for average sacrament meeting attendance outside Utah.

[mfbukowski]

I was there in southern California during the entire Prop 8 campaign and saw nothing of the sort. Such figures are absurd and likely constitute deliberate agitprop.

Totally agree.

[mfbukowski]

If there are many members moving out, as you suggest, and there is still an increase in membership, this means that children of record and convert baptisms are making up the difference and then some. There should be a positive association with the number of members and the number of congregations. If membership increases while the number of congregations decreases, the simplest explanation is that there are many official members who are not attending.

See my previous post- this is not so, though of course we have inactive members. People are leaving the entire state in droves due to taxes. overcrowding etc, and those of us who remain are consolidating into more densely populated congregations with Hispanic members joining in droves.

Suburbia is declining in this area and the population growth is in urban areas with higher income folks escaping to states with a better tax structure.

Sigh. I wish my wife didn't have so many relatives close by or we would be out of here ourselves. The taxes are horrendous

[Mark Beesley]

On June 22, 2009 I started a topic titled LDS Membership Numbers.

First I will list the M/C for the total church since 1999.

M = Members

C = Congregations

1999: 416.9 M/C (10,752,986/25,793)

2000: 427.1 M/C (11,068,861/25,915)

2001: 436.8 M/C (11,394,522/26,084)

2002: 448.4 M/C (11,721,548/26,143)

2003: 456.8 M/C (11,985,254/26,237)

2004: 460.3 M/C (12,275,822/26,670)

2005: 463.7 M/C (12,560,869/27,087)

2006: 468.4 M/C (12,868,606/27,475)

2007: 474.1 M/C (13,193,999/27,827)

2008: 480.6 M/C (13,508,509/28,109)

2009: 486.4 M/C (13,824,854/28,424)

2010: 493.1 M/C (14,131,467/28,660)

2011: 501.7 M/C (14,441,346/28,784)

2012: 509.5 M/C (14,782,473/29,014)

Since 1999 the increase in congregations is 12.5%, and the increase in members is 37.5%.

In addition to the total membership I am tracking 20 different areas. Some of those 20 areas had some interesting changes from 2011 to 2012.

Alberta added 2 congregations but lost 133 members.

Ghana decreased its M/C by 23 from 377 to 354.

Both Mexico and Peru increased their M/C significantly by 27 and 23 respectively. Mexico is now at 664 and Peru is at 671.

Attached is the chart which I have maintained since 2009.

Back in the early '70s I had a large poster on my bedroom wall which was a mock-up of a New York City tabloid. It featured a picture of Neil Armstrong on the moon with the headline SO WHAT? When my father first saw it, he responded with, "Well, the Russians haven't done it." Some folks found great significance in going to the moon, I think primarily because of the competition factor. Others, not so much. I have the same reaction to this kind of data analysis. So what? Truth, salvation, happiness, joy, humility . . . they are not a function of numbers.

[Mark Beesley]

See my previous post- this is not so, though of course we have inactive members. People are leaving the entire state in droves due to taxes. overcrowding etc, and those of us who remain are consolidating into more densely populated congregations with Hispanic members joining in droves.

Suburbia is declining in this area and the population growth is in urban areas with higher income folks escaping to states with a better tax structure.

Sigh. I wish my wife didn't have so many relatives close by or we would be out of here ourselves. The taxes are horrendous

A bunch of assertions that don't seem to be supported by the data when one looks at California demographics and population trends. But if it suits your argument, have at it.

[EllenMaksoud]

I was there in southern California during the entire Prop 8 campaign and saw nothing of the sort. Such figures are absurd and likely constitute deliberate agitprop.

That is comforting.