Covid cases, hospitalizations, death trends and other touchy subjects…

[bluebell]

1 hour ago, rongo said:

 

While vaccines minimize symptoms in some people, it's impossible to know if their symptoms would have been mild anyway without them. 

I've heard someone (who refused to wear a seat belt) say this about seat belts after someone they knew was in a semi-serious crash, exclaiming that no one could know whether or not the outcome would have been the same even if they hadn't been wearing them.

While sure, he might have been technically right, I still feel really good about declaring that seat belts save lives.  I view the vaccine similarly.

[Chum]

A Florida judge delivers a glimmer of hope, allowing schools to responsibly address a massive threat vector.

[rongo]

3 hours ago, bluebell said:

While sure, he might have been technically right, I still feel really good about declaring that seat belts save lives.  I view the vaccine similarly.

Difference being that being in a crash doesn't give you significantly better protection for future crashes than the seat belt.  Seat belts save lives, and vaccination has saved untold lives, too. 

https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2021/08/having-sars-cov-2-once-confers-much-greater-immunity-vaccine-no-infection-parties

People in at-risk groups definitely are better protected as a precaution by vaccination than risking having it. But, the horror stories that the media focuses on are not even close to an accurate look at the overall risk to healthy, vice-free, people under 50. Or even 60. The vast majority (high 90's percent) of the people who get Covid at all are not seriously sick. Untold zillions who have it are never even tested for it (my wife tested positive at an unrelated hospital visit, but we knew she had it because of the loss of taste and smell. None of the rest of us were tested, but we also lost taste and smell. Hospital contact tracing didn't contact her until two months after her visit). 

[Calm]

5 hours ago, smac97 said:

Sure.  I was more interested in the information about the study than the editorializing.

Thanks,

-Smac

Why didn’t you go to the actual study then?

https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/70/wr/mm7021e1.htm
 

PreDelta it appears, Nov-Dec 2020. 

[Calm]

5 hours ago, rongo said:

While vaccines minimize symptoms in some people, it's impossible to know if their symptoms would have been mild anyway without them. 

As individuals perhaps, not as a group. One can predict the probability that someone unvaccinated will get seriously ill vs someone who has been vaccinated. 

[pogi]

Good news out of Florida (for once):

https://www.washingtonpost.com/education/2021/08/27/florida-schools-mask-ruling/

Hopefully this plays out in the rest of the country. 

Edit: I see that Chum has already posted the good news. 

Edited August 27, 2021 by pogi

[Calm]

5 hours ago, smac97 said:

Large CDC Study Doesn't Support Mask Mandates in Schools

Thanks,

-Smac

The study found significance for adults wearing masks, so the title appears to be misleading to me. 
 

Quote

COVID-19 incidence was 37% lower in schools that required teachers and staff members to use masks and 39% lower in schools that improved ventilation. Ventilation strategies associated with lower school incidence included dilution methods alone (35% lower incidence) or in combination with filtration methods (48% lower incidence)

 

[rongo]

6 minutes ago, Calm said:

As individuals perhaps, not as a group. One can predict the probability that someone unvaccinated will get seriously ill vs someone who has been vaccinated. 

Do you know anywhere where these probabilities have been calculated? I would be interested in seeing that. 

Thanks!

[Calm]

July study…don’t remember if already posted, don’t have time to read the study itself that is here, will check later if duplicate and already discussed and will likely delete if so

https://spiral.imperial.ac.uk/bitstream/10044/1/90800/2/react1_r13_final_preprint_final.pdf
 

healthline summary:

Quote

Also, a new study from Imperial College London suggests that unvaccinated people are three times more likely than those who are fully vaccinated to test positive for COVID-19. Researchers also said fully vaccinated people are less likely to transmit the virus to others.

https://www.healthline.com/health-news/risks-of-the-delta-variant-for-vaccinated-vs-unvaccinated-people

Edited August 27, 2021 by Calm

[rongo]

Just now, Calm said:

July study…don’t remember if already posted, don’t have time to read the study itself that is here:

https://spiral.imperial.ac.uk/bitstream/10044/1/90800/2/react1_r13_final_preprint_final.pdf
 

healthline summary:

 

Thanks! 

Are there any studies that differentiate between unvaccinated/un-infected and unvaccinated/infected? The study out of Israel that those who have had Covid have vastly superior immunity to vaccinated seems like common sense to me. If comparing unvaccinated/never had Covid to vaccinated, then I would expect vaccination to naturally be better. 

[Calm]

23 minutes ago, rongo said:

Do you know anywhere where these probabilities have been calculated? I would be interested in seeing that. 

Thanks!

Haven’t read study yet to be sure this summary is accurate and the stidy answers your question, grandkids here:

Quote

According to Centers for Disease Control and Prevention national estimates, people who are vaccinated benefit from an 8-fold lower risk of developing COVID-19 once infected and a 25-fold lower risk of hospitalization and death. (There’s a difference between just getting infected and going on to develop the disease the coronavirus causes.)

https://www.mahoningmatters.com/local-news/how-do-covid-infections-differ-in-vaccinated-vs-unvaccinated-people-what-to-know-4191980

From the link, this is the source of the data:

Quote

Data from COVID Tracker as of July 24, 2021. Average incidence 100 cases per 100,000 persons per week. Vaccine effectiveness against symptomatic illness = 88% (Lopez Bernal et al. NEJM 2021), where risk is [1 – VE] or 12%. Vaccine effectiveness hospitalization (or death) = 96% (Stowe et al. PHE preprint), where risk is [1 – VE] or 4%. Rate in unvaccinated = Community rate/((1-fully vaccinated coverage) + (1-VE)*fully vaccinated coverage). Rate in fully vaccinated=(1-VE)*Rate in unvaccinated. Fully vaccinated coverage proportions were from COVID Data Tracker as of July 24, 2021 (50% for US,).
   

 

[Calm]

10 minutes ago, rongo said:

Thanks! 

Are there any studies that differentiate between unvaccinated/un-infected and unvaccinated/infected? The study out of Israel that those who have had Covid have vastly superior immunity to vaccinated seems like common sense to me. If comparing unvaccinated/never had Covid to vaccinated, then I would expect vaccination to naturally be better. 

What exactly are you looking for?  The combined result of serious illness for both first time around infections for unvaccinated and second or later infections?  To see if there is evidence if the risk of going unvaccinated is better in the long run because the less likelihood of catching it seriously a second time added to the greater risk for the initial infection when combined islower?  Or what?

I would assume those who weren’t seriously ill or killed off by Covid the first time around to likely be less likely to be killed off for future infections even if getting Covid didn’t increase immune response as they have already demonstrated a superior immune system. 
 

Tracking responses of being reinfected for those who were seriously ill the first time around, but survived long enough to be reinfected…not sure if any studies out there on this group yet. 

Edited August 27, 2021 by Calm

[smac97]

48 minutes ago, Calm said:

Why didn’t you go to the actual study then?

https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/70/wr/mm7021e1.htm
 

PreDelta it appears, Nov-Dec 2020. 

In a hurry.

[rongo]

4 minutes ago, Calm said:

What exactly are you looking for?  The combined result of serious illness for both first time around infections for unvaccinated and second or later infections?  To see if there is evidence if the risk of going unvaccinated is better in the long run because the less likelihood of catching it seriously a second time added to the greater risk for the initial infection when combined islower?  Or what?

I would assume those who weren’t seriously ill or killed off by Covid the first time around to likely be less likely to be killed off for future infections even if getting Covid didn’t increase immune response as they have already demonstrated a superior immune system. 

Grandkids come first (always), so no worries.

I just think that prior infection/natural immunity hasn't been studied nearly as much, so I'm always interested in studies that look at them. Most of the time, "unvaccinated" also includes "never had it," but I think there is a huge difference between those who had it and were more than fine **but** remain unvaccinated and people who have never had it and are unvaccinated. Although, from an actuary table standpoint, people in certain demographics are also at extremely low risk, even then (young, healthy, no vices, no inflammatory medical conditions, etc.). 

I wonder what the actual "herd immunity" is, given that untold numbers of people have had it but have never been tested or reported it. 

[pogi]

1 hour ago, rongo said:

People in at-risk groups definitely are better protected as a precaution by vaccination than risking having it. But, the horror stories that the media focuses on are not even close to an accurate look at the overall risk to healthy, vice-free, people under 50. Or even 60. The vast majority (high 90's percent) of the people who get Covid at all are not seriously sick. Untold zillions who have it are never even tested for it (my wife tested positive at an unrelated hospital visit, but we knew she had it because of the loss of taste and smell. None of the rest of us were tested, but we also lost taste and smell. Hospital contact tracing didn't contact her until two months after her visit). 

This is true for most of the vaccines we receive and give our children.  For some reason, we don't seem to question those ones despite the fact that the chances of getting polio is essentially ZERO.  chickenpox???  How many have died from that?  Hep A?  Seriously!   When is the last time we saw hospitals filled with chickenpox and Hep A victims?  Why is it that you downplay the severity of Covid and the urge to be vaccinated against it in the middle of a pandemic, when the burden on hospitals is terrible? 

I don't see the same reluctance to get Hep A.  I all but guarantee that you vaccinated your kids with both Hep A and chickenpox - which are practically harmless for young children.   No thoughts.  No questions. Yet, where the risk of infection is greater and the risk of severe disease is greater, you question that vaccine.  It is nonsense!  You don't understand how public health works.  

[rongo]

1 minute ago, pogi said:

This is true for most of the vaccines we receive and give our children.  For some reason, we don't seem to question those ones despite the fact that the chances of getting polio is essentially ZERO.  chickenpox???  How many have died from that?  Hep A?  Seriously!   When is the last time we saw hospitals filled with chickenpox and Hep A victims?  Why is it that you downplay the severity of Covid and the urge to be vaccinated against it in the middle of a pandemic, when the burden on hospitals is terrible? 

I don't see the same reluctance to get Hep A.  I all but guarantee that you vaccinated your kids with both Hep A and chickenpox - which are practically harmless for young children.   No thoughts.  No questions. Yet, where the risk of infection is greater and the risk of severe disease is greater, you question that vaccine.  It is nonsense!  You don't understand how public health works.  

We only got them the MMR and DPT required for school. 

[pogi]

15 minutes ago, rongo said:

We only got them the MMR and DPT required for school. 

When was the last time anyone child has died or even been hospitalized with diphtheria, tetanus, measles, mumps, or rubella?   Why no outrage that those vaccines are required for school?  I guarantee there would be outrage if the Covid vaccine is required, despite the hospitalizations and deaths we see in children. 

[Calm]

11 minutes ago, smac97 said:

In a hurry.

Errors creep in easily when in a hurry. It seems to me that using an obviously prejudiced source without checking its accuracy is unwise. As is demonstrated by your use of this article which misrepresented findings of the study they discussed. 
 

If you don’t want to lose the potential info, then post the article with a disclaimer of needing to check the claims rather than posting as if the claims are correct as you did. 

Edited August 27, 2021 by Calm

[rongo]

4 minutes ago, pogi said:

When was the last time anyone child has died or even been hospitalized with diphtheria, tetanus, measles, mumps, or rubella?   Why no outrage that those vaccines are required for school?  I guarantee there would be outrage if the Covid vaccine is required, despite the hospitalizations and deaths we see in children. 

I would rather let our children get measles, mumps, and German measles as childhood illnesses, but I understand the risks to adults since we have been vaccinating children and they didn't have it as children (birth defects, sterility in men, etc.). Nobody wants diptheria or tetanus (I've had tetanus boosters as an adult for sports injuries --- precautionary). Those are bad news, and I embrace those. 

I'm not outraged about required vaccines, and I'm not outraged about the existence of Covid vaccines. I would be outraged if they were required for school, because of my weighed risk/benefit analysis associated with Covid. I consider that with the other declined ones: haemophilus, pneumonococcal, Gardasil, Hep, etc. Boosters many years apart are one thing, but we're looking at only a few months now for the Covid vaccines.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-08-27/biden-says-u-s-considering-starting-booster-shots-earlier-ksujzrim

[Calm]

13 minutes ago, rongo said:

I just think that prior infection/natural immunity hasn't been studied nearly as much, so I'm always interested in studies that look at them. Most of the time, "unvaccinated" also includes "never had it," but I think there is a huge difference between those who had it and were more than fine **but** remain unvaccinated and people who have never had it and are unvaccinated. Although, from an actuary table standpoint, people in certain demographics are also at extremely low risk, even then (young, healthy, no vices, no inflammatory medical conditions, etc.). 

With the disease only a year and a half old and quickly mutating so as to alter stats overtime,  it will take time to produce decent studies 

[pogi]

 

34 minutes ago, rongo said:

I would rather let our children get measles, mumps, and German measles as childhood illnesses, but I understand the risks to adults since we have been vaccinating children and they didn't have it as children (birth defects, sterility in men, etc.). Nobody wants diptheria or tetanus (I've had tetanus boosters as an adult for sports injuries --- precautionary). Those are bad news, and I embrace those. 

I'm not outraged about required vaccines, and I'm not outraged about the existence of Covid vaccines. I would be outraged if they were required for school, because of my weighed risk/benefit analysis associated with Covid. I consider that with the other declined ones: haemophilus, pneumonococcal, Gardasil, Hep, etc. Boosters many years apart are one thing, but we're looking at only a few months now for the Covid vaccines.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-08-27/biden-says-u-s-considering-starting-booster-shots-earlier-ksujzrim

I’m guessing you didn’t speak with a pediatrician in consultation about your risk/benefit analysis with Hib and these other vaccines.  How you think MMR and DTaP are greater risk to children than COVID is beyond me. 
 

mumps and rubella are almost non existent. Measles is considered eliminated in US, but we see rare isolated outbreaks here and there.  Diptheria hasn’t been seen for decades.  Tetanus in children is practically nonexistent (and not communicable).   Don’t get me wrong, I support public health measures with these vaccines to keep it that way but..,

Covid, on the other hand? Risk of exposure is EXTREME.  Risk of hospitalization and death (while relatively low compared to adults) is therefore much higher than any of thsee other diseases you support vaccine mandates for by insane margins.   Risk for school disruption due to quarantine/isolation alone is enough! 

 

Edited August 27, 2021 by pogi

[Calm]

3 hours ago, rongo said:

German measles

One of my friends as a youth was deaf due to the second to last major outbreak of rubella before the vaccine prevented such from happening.  The idea that we should go back to natural immunity as it appears would be your preference is very disturbing to me. 

Edited August 28, 2021 by Calm

[ttribe]

2 hours ago, rongo said:

I would rather let our children get measles, mumps, and German measles as childhood illnesses, but I understand the risks to adults since we have been vaccinating children and they didn't have it as children (birth defects, sterility in men, etc.). Nobody wants diptheria or tetanus (I've had tetanus boosters as an adult for sports injuries --- precautionary). Those are bad news, and I embrace those. 

I'm not outraged about required vaccines, and I'm not outraged about the existence of Covid vaccines. I would be outraged if they were required for school, because of my weighed risk/benefit analysis associated with Covid. I consider that with the other declined ones: haemophilus, pneumonococcal, Gardasil, Hep, etc. Boosters many years apart are one thing, but we're looking at only a few months now for the Covid vaccines.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-08-27/biden-says-u-s-considering-starting-booster-shots-earlier-ksujzrim

This is one of the dumbest things I've ever heard on this board, and that's an accomplishment.

Guess, you don't want all that polio immunity you're carrying around from immunizations and herd immunity, right?  Just let the body's natural immune system do its thing, right?  Death, disfigurement, and disability be damned.

I have three kids with compromised immune systems.  You are a reason our population won't reach herd immunity and we'll have a new, more deadly, variant around the corner.  Thanks for that.

[Raingirl]

2 minutes ago, ttribe said:

This is one of the dumbest things I've ever heard on this board, and that's an accomplishment.

Guess, you don't want all that polio immunity you're carrying around from immunizations and herd immunity, right?  Just let the body's natural immune system do its thing, right?  Death, disfigurement, and disability be damned.

I have three kids with compromised immune systems.  You are a reason our population won't reach herd immunity and we'll have a new, more deadly, variant around the corner.  Thanks for that.

499 children were diagnosed with Covid in one week here in Oregon.  I’m seeing lots of comments online saying that it’s no big deal because “kids don’t get very sick with Covid”.  They are completely disregarding the fact that there are children who have died and others having serious complications. Not to mention the risk of these children spreading the disease. 
 

I continue to be appalled by people’s uncaring and selfish attitudes and actions when it comes to this deadly virus. 
 

 

[bluebell]

4 hours ago, rongo said:

Difference being that being in a crash doesn't give you significantly better protection for future crashes than the seat belt.  Seat belts save lives, and vaccination has saved untold lives, too. 

https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2021/08/having-sars-cov-2-once-confers-much-greater-immunity-vaccine-no-infection-parties

People in at-risk groups definitely are better protected as a precaution by vaccination than risking having it. But, the horror stories that the media focuses on are not even close to an accurate look at the overall risk to healthy, vice-free, people under 50. Or even 60. The vast majority (high 90's percent) of the people who get Covid at all are not seriously sick. Untold zillions who have it are never even tested for it (my wife tested positive at an unrelated hospital visit, but we knew she had it because of the loss of taste and smell. None of the rest of us were tested, but we also lost taste and smell. Hospital contact tracing didn't contact her until two months after her visit). 

I get what you are saying, but it seems like the risk of a bad reaction to the vaccine is still less than the risk of a bad reaction to covid.  So even if everything you've said is true, getting the vaccine is still the safer option statistically (is that right term?).

Especially when we consider the ramifications of needing to quarantine for positive covid cases even if they aren't very severe, and the costs that comes with that, from missed work or missed school, to government shutdowns or having to go back to at home church because transmission has become to high.