Demographic time bomb?

[The Nehor]

38 minutes ago, Chum said:

Hmmm. Okay. Toss in the F-35 program and taxes on the funds that FAANG corps stash outside the country.

edit: Oh Oh I know!  Add the trillions spend on anti-terror measures, outside the scope of what was recommended by the 9/11 commission.

This I can get on board with. I would also like to go ahead and raise the corporate income tax rate and close a few issues in those laws regarding loss write-offs.

Edit: On the F-35 never design with multiple committees. And stop catering to the Marines insisting they need VTOL planes because of New Guinea during World War 2 that they have never needed again since.

For a satirical take on this kind of process:

 

Edited April 25, 2021 by The Nehor

[Chum]

7 hours ago, Teancum said:

Gates is a prolific researcher and a smart man

He's a far better human being than when he was at the helm of Microsoft.

[Chum]

6 hours ago, Teancum said:

Why do you say alarmists? .

I believe 'alarmist' has been hijacked by people who are compulsively driven by agendas that don't benefit society.

also: see 'cult'

[Chum]

6 hours ago, AtlanticMike said:

We live anecdotally from the day we are born. If you don't like anecdotal evidence why are you a Christian?

Oh dang. I didn't see that coming.

[AtlanticMike]

39 minutes ago, Chum said:

Oh dang. I didn't see that coming.

Well Chum, if you don't trim that beard back, in a few months you won't be able to see anything coming😁. Haha, just kidding. Anyways, what is that picture, every time I look at it I think that Santa Claus and Batwoman might of secretly hooked up and had a love child .

[Chum]

37 minutes ago, AtlanticMike said:

Well Chum, if you don't trim that beard back, in a few months you won't be able to see anything coming

Hobo head is 2020 head (renewed for 2nd smash season). I'm just embracing the reality we were dealt.

Also, that and the ponytail makes me fairly calling proof. If that doesn't work I'll start expressing political opinions that run counter to the majority.

[Chum]

13 minutes ago, mrmarklin said:

You all realize that all of the supposed climate "science" we have today is all anecdotal, right?

Covid vaccines are made from the aborted fetuses of Nixon's secret love children. Your turn.

[Robert F. Smith]

5 hours ago, Chum said:

PreCovid we were something like 30%.  Sunday meetings were sacrament, sit and listen to instruction and go home. During the week some groups would come to the building, get instruction and go home. Those of us who'd like a little more can help unload moving trucks.

Based on Zoom numbers, I don't think we dropped off much - but our ward experience isn't that far off what it was before Covid.

Similarly, we are now back to anyone attending who wants to, but with masks.  Some people just don't bother wearing masks, and no one calls them on it.  Most have been vaccinated.  We are still broadcasting by Zoom.

I expect things to be back to normal by Summer.

[Robert F. Smith]

6 hours ago, CA Steve said:

No, my sons are all grown and out on their own. My opinion is that the Church needs to have programs that appeal to youth in a variety of ways. I did not enjoy Sunday meetings or Seminary as a teenager, but the appeal of the scouting program and the youth sport's competitions kept me fully engaged with Mormonism during that time. I think we have lost that now with what appears to me a more singular focus on religious instruction. I actually think the only way to re-engage younger generations is going to be through technology and social media. Perhaps the last couple of years where the Church was forced to move more online for local liturgy may be a start. Maybe rethink the term ward and stake so that it could include boundaries other than geographical, like forming units based on social networking  groups. I have no idea how that would work, but at least you would be grouping people together who self identified with others in that same group.

I agree that boys groups and girls groups are essential.  Just not sure that leadership understands that.  I assumed that something substantial would replace scouting.  Do the ward youth have to join secular girls and boys clubs to get what they need?  https://bgcutah.org/

[Chum]

1 minute ago, Robert F. Smith said:

Similarly, we are now back to anyone attending who wants to, but with masks.  Some people just don't bother wearing masks, and no one calls them on it.  Most have been vaccinated.  We are still broadcasting by Zoom.

I expect things to be back to normal by Summer.

Not too diff here except my father in law is vigorously reminding maskless priesthood holders of Pres Nelson's direction to Do all you can to bring COVID-19 numbers down in your area. 

I'm not sure how many are vaccinated; it's not uncommon for folks to feel that getting vaccinated betrays their political principles. Vaccines are certainly available here. My first look on a Fri scored me an appt for the next day. My 2nd shot is in 2 weeks.

I just got word that our Stake Conference sessions will be streamed. God bless our stake presidency for that.

[Chum]

12 minutes ago, Robert F. Smith said:

I assumed that something substantial would replace scouting. 

This was the summer camp replacement https://www.churchofjesuschrist.org/youth/childrenandyouth/fsy?lang=eng&country=us

[Robert F. Smith]

4 minutes ago, Chum said:

This was the summer camp replacement https://www.churchofjesuschrist.org/youth/childrenandyouth/fsy?lang=eng&country=us

For a second I thought:  Wow, a trip to Aruba or Barbados!!  Now that's a nice replacement!!  Then I clicked on the USA and found that everything is cancelled until 2022.  Bummer.

[Chum]

1 minute ago, Robert F. Smith said:

For a second I thought:  Wow, a trip to Aruba or Barbados!!  Now that's a nice replacement!! 

I don't think that country list is a menu.

[Robert F. Smith]

8 hours ago, poptart said:

............. an apathetic male population that will usually take the socialist side because in the beginning they have the most handouts. 

A female friend has a grandson who is in his 30s, lives with his father, and does gaming all day.  No job.  His father works and gives him handouts.

[Robert F. Smith]

9 hours ago, Teancum said:

Gates is a prolific researcher and a smart man.  He has put $$ into a lot of into various renewable energy projects and I am sure will do more.  When I read his book it does some almost insurmountable to get where we need to be.  But the ideas are interesting.  I think he understands the issues well.  If is an idea book. What can we do about the problem. But I do fear as well what you say above.  I drive a hybrid, have solar and geothermal.  Personally I think the biggest obstacle is political bot domestically and geo-political.

I agree.

[Robert F. Smith]

31 minutes ago, Douglas Avans said:

Yeah.  Been thinking along the same lines.  The '70s or '80s were really the time to move in earnest.  

Oh well.  I'm wondering where the climate refugees will be going?  

I'd try to reach the USA.

[rodheadlee]

11 hours ago, Chum said:

Hmmm. Okay. Toss in the F-35 program 

Sure if you want to learn to speak Chinese. 

[poptart]

13 hours ago, Robert F. Smith said:

A female friend has a grandson who is in his 30s, lives with his father, and does gaming all day.  No job.  His father works and gives him handouts.

Ive never known anyone that lazy, heard of them though.  I dunno, older I get happier I am i don't have children.  Having a child like that would upset me to no end yet at the same time because of the life I've had to have thanks to a violent alcoholic father I don't think I could ever throw a child out like my father did with me, especially when I've seen the homelessness and mental illness I have.  People in this country have done a fantastic job of destroying their families and making a few generations of dysfunctional adults.  No one cared about us, no one raised a finger for us growing up now as adults a lot of folks throw a fit when we refuse to participate in a society that cares nothing for us, same as it did when we were children.  One of the biggest slaps in the face for me is when I hear some privileged WASP cherry pick stats and studies while blaming people like me for our own problems never thinking it may happen to them or their kids.   My father came from a very privileged background and like his siblings ruined it for themselves then took their drunken anger out on their children.  I'm literally the last of my grandfather's line, one of my uncles literally destroyed my cousin who's buried next to my grandfather.  It pleases me knowing when I'm dead as a line they will be extinct. When I see the choices some millenials are making partner wise I bet it scares their parents.  This is happening even to the privileged here, us society is now getting to see the end result of generational dysfunction ruin not only another generation, even those from good families are being swallowed up in it.  I'm curious how that will play out, lots of folks say build more jails which just adds to it, that and well, white flight isn't as much an option as it used to be.

  I'd hope that grandson would take care of his father, once he's gone he may end up homeless himself.  As someone who's had to live in some not so  nice places it's a huge shock when you're either on the street or living in settings surrounded by mentally ill people who usually have substance abuse issues.

Edited April 26, 2021 by poptart

[Analytics]

On 4/23/2021 at 2:35 PM, rongo said:

As the Baby Boomers (the largest cohort) die off in the Church, and as this accelerates (the die-off will pick up speed as the years pass), I can't help but see the Church rapidly shrinking in numbers, given falling birthrates and falling convert baptism rates (and retention rates). 

Does anyone know the relative cohort size of: Boomers, GenX, Millennials, GenZ, and GenAlpha (children now)? 

Aside from a missionary convert baptism renaissance, what could avert the Church drastically shrinking in size over the coming decades? 

Am I wrong in thinking that the Millennial/GenZ propensity for later marriage, smaller number of children, and lower commitment to and acceptance of religion (which we see in the Church as well in society at large) are factors that throw gasoline on the demographic fire?

One interesting statistic is "New Children of Record." If you told me an organization had 65,440 children born last year, not knowing anything else I'd guess it had about 5.2 million members. Given the Church really claims 16.6 million members, this means the Church's birth rate of 3.9 per thousand is about half of the birth rate of Japan.

In all likelihood, the biggest driver of this is that most of the Church's 16.6 million members either don't self-identify as members or are so inactive that they don't bother having their children become "new children of record" during a pandemic. But still, it gives an indication of how big the Church's core membership really is.

Another way to put the 65,440 new children of record into perspective is to compare it to prior years. In 1975, the Church had 3.6 million members and blessed 79,723 children.

I don't know if we'll see the total membership radically shrink anytime soon. Converts are still the biggest source of new members, not children born into the faith. And if inactive people aren't reporting the birth of their children to the church, are their deaths being reported?

 

[rongo]

12 minutes ago, Analytics said:

One interesting statistic is "New Children of Record." If you told me an organization had 65,440 children born last year, not knowing anything else I'd guess it had about 5.2 million members. Given the Church really claims 16.6 million members, this means the Church's birth rate of 3.9 per thousand is about half of the birth rate of Japan.

In all likelihood, the biggest driver of this is that most of the Church's 16.6 million members either don't self-identify as members or are so inactive that they don't bother having their children become "new children of record" during a pandemic. But still, it gives an indication of how big the Church's core membership really is.

Another way to put the 65,440 new children of record into perspective is to compare it to prior years. In 1975, the Church had 3.6 million members and blessed 79,723 children.

I don't know if we'll see the total membership radically shrink anytime soon. Converts are still the biggest source of new members, not children born into the faith. And if inactive people aren't reporting the birth of their children to the church, are their deaths being reported?

 

This is already outdated, I think, but Elder Perry told a group of Arizona bishops around ten years ago that the birthrate for couples where one or both parents had served missions was 3.7 children. For couples in the Church where neither had, it was 1.7 (below the national average in the U.S.). I think both numbers have fallen since then in only ten years. And, fewer are serving missions, and a very high (not the majority, but too high) number of those go inactive upon their return. LDS young adults are marrying later, and having fewer children --- even the active ones. 

Granted, the Covid year baptisms number was very low, but I think it will remain very low even when things normalize. The Church has forever shifted to social media missions over traditional proselyting, and I think the numbers will show that (despite all of the ballyhoo of "missions are baptizing more than ever with Zoom teaching!" The numbers certainly didn't show that, did they?).

The Church is only as strong as the 3-5 million active members it has --- the totally inactive or no longer Mormon people counted in the totals don't contribute any numerical or actual strength. 

[poptart]

19 hours ago, Tacenda said:

People like you keep me feeling less alone! 

It's scary just how common lonliness is getting in the world.  Curious, does the church address any of that?  Would think that would be a great perk of being part of a ward.  I do hope people appreciate what a great community this board has become, you guys have more than a few non members here and from what i've seen treat them better than most other places I've seen online and IRL.  I've had books sent here, questions answered and really, people who I see eye to eye with even though were on totally different sides of the religious/political divide.  That is rare nowadays and with the USA polarizing like it is will become even more so.

[Fair Dinkum]

On 4/23/2021 at 1:35 PM, rongo said:

As the Baby Boomers (the largest cohort) die off in the Church, and as this accelerates (the die-off will pick up speed as the years pass), I can't help but see the Church rapidly shrinking in numbers, given falling birthrates and falling convert baptism rates (and retention rates). 

Does anyone know the relative cohort size of: Boomers, GenX, Millennials, GenZ, and GenAlpha (children now)? 

Aside from a missionary convert baptism renaissance, what could avert the Church drastically shrinking in size over the coming decades? 

Am I wrong in thinking that the Millennial/GenZ propensity for later marriage, smaller number of children, and lower commitment to and acceptance of religion (which we see in the Church as well in society at large) are factors that throw gasoline on the demographic fire?

Current trends seem to support the church continuing to shrink where there is an educated, first world population with easy access to the internet vs third world populations with limited education opportunities and limited access to the internet which is where any growth will continue to take place..

[poptart]

1 hour ago, rongo said:

This is already outdated, I think, but Elder Perry told a group of Arizona bishops around ten years ago that the birthrate for couples where one or both parents had served missions was 3.7 children. For couples in the Church where neither had, it was 1.7 (below the national average in the U.S.). I think both numbers have fallen since then in only ten years. And, fewer are serving missions, and a very high (not the majority, but too high) number of those go inactive upon their return. LDS young adults are marrying later, and having fewer children --- even the active ones. 

Granted, the Covid year baptisms number was very low, but I think it will remain very low even when things normalize. The Church has forever shifted to social media missions over traditional proselyting, and I think the numbers will show that (despite all of the ballyhoo of "missions are baptizing more than ever with Zoom teaching!" The numbers certainly didn't show that, did they?).

The Church is only as strong as the 3-5 million active members it has --- the totally inactive or no longer Mormon people counted in the totals don't contribute any numerical or actual strength. 

Social media missions?  What about people who have scant to no social media presence outside of things like LinkedIn?  People have been leaving social media thanks to politics, doxing and the overwhelming toxic people/garbage out there.  I have a few throwaways I use for my own purposes, glad I left when I did.  Anyway, how would missionaries do social media missions?  That just sounds like a bad idea.  You never know who's on the other end, on facebook it's too easy to make yourself look like something you're not.  The stuff that flies for truth on social media is a little scary.

[Calm]

9 minutes ago, poptart said:

Curious, does the church address any of that? 

If you mean specific programs, I am not aware of any, but they do encourage everyone to be highly involved and the ministering program would provide great help if people follow through with their callings as much as they can (and let leaders know if they can’t).

Talks on the topic:

https://www.churchofjesuschrist.org/study/general-conference/topics/loneliness?lang=eng

Articles,etc

https://www.churchofjesuschrist.org/search?lang=eng&query=Loneliness &facet=all&highlight=true&page=1

Edited April 26, 2021 by Calm

[Teancum]

19 hours ago, Chum said:

He's a far better human being than when he was at the helm of Microsoft.

I agree totally.