Demographic time bomb?

[rongo]

As the Baby Boomers (the largest cohort) die off in the Church, and as this accelerates (the die-off will pick up speed as the years pass), I can't help but see the Church rapidly shrinking in numbers, given falling birthrates and falling convert baptism rates (and retention rates). 

Does anyone know the relative cohort size of: Boomers, GenX, Millennials, GenZ, and GenAlpha (children now)? 

Aside from a missionary convert baptism renaissance, what could avert the Church drastically shrinking in size over the coming decades? 

Am I wrong in thinking that the Millennial/GenZ propensity for later marriage, smaller number of children, and lower commitment to and acceptance of religion (which we see in the Church as well in society at large) are factors that throw gasoline on the demographic fire?

[ksfisher]

7 minutes ago, rongo said:

As the Baby Boomers (the largest cohort) die off in the Church, and as this accelerates (the die-off will pick up speed as the years pass), I can't help but see the Church rapidly shrinking in numbers, given falling birthrates and falling convert baptism rates (and retention rates). 

Does anyone know the relative cohort size of: Boomers, GenX, Millennials, GenZ, and GenAlpha (children now)? 

Aside from a missionary convert baptism renaissance, what could avert the Church drastically shrinking in size over the coming decades? 

Am I wrong in thinking that the Millennial/GenZ propensity for later marriage, smaller number of children, and lower commitment to and acceptance of religion (which we see in the Church as well in society at large) are factors that throw gasoline on the demographic fire?

Are you talking excursively about North America or are you thinking about the entire globe?

[rongo]

Just now, ksfisher said:

Are you talking excursively about North America or are you thinking about the entire globe?

Both. I'm sure that fecundity is higher outside of North America and Europe, but I would be interested in how both stack up. 

[CV75]

(BBC: Fertility rate: 'Jaw-dropping' global crash in children being born) https://www.bbc.com/news/health-53409521

(Pew: increasing global death rate) https://www.pewresearch.org/global/2014/01/30/chapter-4-population-change-in-the-u-s-and-the-world-from-1950-to-2050/#:~:text=This led to robust gains,global death rate of 9.9.

[CA Steve]

If I could predict the future I would be retired on my own island by now. 😛

I don't think this is a demographic time bomb so much as a rapid change in cultural values brought on by technology.

That said, it is hard to imagine a future without social networking and ubiquitous internet access, both of which are replacing and or diminishing the role that religion plays in people's lives. I would say that baring some huge economic or social upheaval, religion in general and Mormonism specifically will continue to shrink in influence and size. We may postpone this somewhat by increased proselyting efforts in undeveloped areas like Africa but the same impact will follow as soon as technology is readily available there.

34 minutes ago, ksfisher said:

Aside from a missionary convert baptism renaissance, what could avert the Church drastically shrinking in size over the coming decades?

I don't think the Church can avoid this unless they are willing to drastically change some core belief's and requirements, but then it would not have survived as the same Church. Things like open acceptance or LGBTQ members into full fellowship, priesthood to all adult members, drastically reduced criteria for entrance into the temple, public acknowledgement of erroneous past doctrines and policies, greater freedom on the part of members to publicly disagree with leadership, younger and more diverse leadership at top levels, and greater incorporation of different cultures into the liturgy, are some changes that might avoid what seems to be inevitable but then it wouldn't look like the current version of Mormonism. 

[HappyJackWagon]

9 minutes ago, CA Steve said:

If I could predict the future I would be retired on my own island by now. 😛

I don't think this is a demographic time bomb so much as a rapid change in cultural values brought on by technology.

That said, it is hard to imagine a future without social networking and ubiquitous internet access, both of which are replacing and or diminishing the role that religion plays in people's lives. I would say that baring some huge economic or social upheaval, religion in general and Mormonism specifically will continue to shrink in influence and size. We may postpone this somewhat by increased proselyting efforts in undeveloped areas like Africa but the same impact will follow as soon as technology is readily available there.

I don't think the Church can avoid this unless they are willing to drastically change some core belief's and requirements, but then it would not have survived as the same Church. Things like open acceptance or LGBTQ members into full fellowship, priesthood to all adult members, drastically reduced criteria for entrance into the temple, public acknowledgement of erroneous past doctrines and policies, greater freedom on the part of members to publicly disagree with leadership, younger and more diverse leadership at top levels, and greater incorporation of different cultures into the liturgy, are some changes that might avoid what seems to be inevitable but then it wouldn't look like the current version of Mormonism. 

That's ok. The current version of Mormonism doesn't look much like the past version of Mormonism either.  

 

[Scott Lloyd]

I think what is being missed here is the possibility of younger generations, as they grow older and become more conservative (it happens in each and every generation), retrenching themselves and returning to the faith of their youth. 
 

What is it the scripture says? “Train up a child in the way he should go, and when he is old he will not depart from it.” 

[Scott Lloyd]

1 minute ago, HappyJackWagon said:

That's ok. The current version of Mormonism doesn't look much like the past version of Mormonism either.  

 

In every important respect it does. 

[HappyJackWagon]

9 minutes ago, Scott Lloyd said:

In every important respect it does. 

That is certainly debatable.

Issues of race and polygamy are the first things that come to mind that were rather significant changes. Whether or not you consider them "important" is a different story.

[Scott Lloyd]

16 minutes ago, HappyJackWagon said:

That is certainly debatable.

Issues of race and polygamy are the first things that come to mind that were rather significant changes. Whether or not you consider them "important" is a different story.

I agree that what you consider important and what I consider important are scarcely apt to coincide with precision. 

[The Nehor]

On one hand this is the choice generation that were reserved for this day to meet their God but on the other hand they are a bunch of slack-off losers who are going to destroy everything. Hmmmmm....

The Church is not going to face a huge demographic crunch even if numbers fall. The model to run it is not based on ever increasing financial resources and the system won’t crash if the number creeps down a bit for a while. I am not saying it is a good thing but it is not the End of Days.

[rongo]

1 hour ago, Scott Lloyd said:

I think what is being missed here is the possibility of younger generations, as they grow older and become more conservative (it happens in each and every generation), retrenching themselves and returning to the faith of their youth. 

That's a separate issue (fidelity to the Restoration) from demographic decline. How do you see the numbers turning around (barring exploding fecundity in the current or yet-to-arise young generation?

18 minutes ago, The Nehor said:

The Church is not going to face a huge demographic crunch even if numbers fall. The model to run it is not based on ever increasing financial resources and the system won’t crash if the number creeps down a bit for a while.

How would the Church not face a huge demographic crunch even if numbers fall --- especially among the child-bearing generations? And why do you think the demographics will only creep down for a little while?

Edited April 23, 2021 by rongo

[Scott Lloyd]

23 minutes ago, rongo said:

That's a separate issue (fidelity to the Restoration) from demographic decline. How do you see the numbers turning around (barring exploding fecundity in the current or yet-to-arise young generation?

I’m not one to panic if I don’t see the Church moving toward numerical dominance in the world prior to the Second Coming. I take as my guide Nephi’s account of what he beheld in vision: that the church of the Lamb of God would be few in number but over all the face of the earth — this by reason of the influence of the devil in latter days. That’s precisely what I see today: the Church of Jesus Christ being relatively low in membership numbers but having an increasingly global reach — and having to contend with devilish and worldly philosophies, doctrines and trends. 
 

The business about the stone cut out of the mountain rolling forth to consume all earthly kingdoms? I really don’t foresee that happening until the Millennium. 

Edited April 23, 2021 by Scott Lloyd

[CA Steve]

1 hour ago, HappyJackWagon said:

Whether or not you consider them "important" is a different story.

Only true "Scott"smen know what is important.

😛

[carbon dioxide]

2 hours ago, rongo said:

As the Baby Boomers (the largest cohort) die off in the Church, and as this accelerates (the die-off will pick up speed as the years pass), I can't help but see the Church rapidly shrinking in numbers, given falling birthrates and falling convert baptism rates (and retention rates). 

Does anyone know the relative cohort size of: Boomers, GenX, Millennials, GenZ, and GenAlpha (children now)? 

Aside from a missionary convert baptism renaissance, what could avert the Church drastically shrinking in size over the coming decades? 

Am I wrong in thinking that the Millennial/GenZ propensity for later marriage, smaller number of children, and lower commitment to and acceptance of religion (which we see in the Church as well in society at large) are factors that throw gasoline on the demographic fire?

The church in 3rd Nephi was a struggling church that was few in number in terms of the broader population.  History will repeat.   What is important is that the Church is doing what it is called to do.  Better to have a small, faithful church than a larger church that is not faithful.  We know the overall script of what is going to happen.  The church in the end prevails and the wicked are destroyed.  The only thing in question is timing and the exact sequence of events.   Based on what has been revealed regarding the last days, the condition and path of the world still appears to be on schedule. 

[CA Steve]

29 minutes ago, carbon dioxide said:

Better to have a small, faithful church than a larger church that is not faithful.  We know the overall script of what is going to happen.  The church in the end prevails and the wicked are destroyed.  The only thing in question is timing and the exact sequence of events.   Based on what has been revealed regarding the last days, the condition and path of the world still appears to be on schedule. 

Are you saying that if the end of days were to happen now only a few million would be saved from destruction? I know there is a lot of bad stuff going on in the world but it seems to me, most people are decent hard working people who care about their families and friends. Are they too doomed if they are not Mormons?

If God's plan is only effective for 1/10th of 1 percent of his children, something is wrong.

[The Nehor]

7 minutes ago, CA Steve said:

Are you saying that if the end of days were to happen now only a few million would be saved from destruction? I know there is a lot of bad stuff going on in the world but it seems to me, most people are decent hard working people who care about their families and friends. Are they too doomed if they are not Mormons?

If God's plan is only effective for 1/10th of 1 percent of his children, something is wrong.

I would venture that most of the survivors will not be members of the Church.

I could be wrong but that is my suspicion.

[The Nehor]

1 hour ago, rongo said:

How would the Church not face a huge demographic crunch even if numbers fall --- especially among the child-bearing generations? And why do you think the demographics will only creep down for a little while?

“Crunch” and “Bomb” imply a problem beyond the numbers failing.

Why do I think it will only creep down for a little while? Because I suspect that if there were an extended drop God would come and burn the wicked (tell the survivors I died doing what I love). Plus if I am wrong I can always use God’s measure for a “short time” and I have at least centuries before I am wrong.  

[strappinglad]

Here in Zion - north ☺️ on a good day, pre-covid,  sacrament  attendance was about 60% of ward membership. Post covid I think that number will drop to 40% ??? . Do you all see that as permanent or temporary or unlikely ? In 10 years , about half of our former High Priests will have crossed over.

As with politics, I think Asia will be the numbers power in the future.

[The Nehor]

15 minutes ago, strappinglad said:

Here in Zion - north ☺️ on a good day, pre-covid,  sacrament  attendance was about 60% of ward membership. Post covid I think that number will drop to 40% ??? . Do you all see that as permanent or temporary or unlikely ? In 10 years , about half of our former High Priests will have crossed over.

As with politics, I think Asia will be the numbers power in the future.

I expect the “Lamanites blossoming as the rose” to hit at a new level soon.

[Robert F. Smith]

3 hours ago, CA Steve said:

........................

That said, it is hard to imagine a future without social networking and ubiquitous internet access, both of which are replacing and or diminishing the role that religion plays in people's lives. I would say that baring some huge economic or social upheaval, religion in general and Mormonism specifically will continue to shrink in influence and size. We may postpone this somewhat by increased proselyting efforts in undeveloped areas like Africa but the same impact will follow as soon as technology is readily available there.

It is true now, and has been true for some time, that LDS Church growth has not kept pace with world population growth.  That is, the LDS Church has become a smaller and smaller percentage of world population, even when it had phenomenal growth spurts.  This appears to be true now and will continue into the future, if we follow reasonable linear projections.  That does not mean that the LDS Church will actually shrink in absolute numbers.  It is likely to continue growing, even if at a reduced rate.  The reasons for that are sociological, not religious, and the figures will vary markedly according to which part of the world we are examining.

The most important truth about history is that it is oscillatory and unpredictable rather than linear in nature.  Then too, even if the planet avoids major war (it never has in the past), global warming will wreack havoc on any sort of projections we wish to make based on current fertility rates or rates of LDS conversion.  This may have a marked effect on the fastest growing religion in the world, Islam.  Global warming is a debacle coming at us with a vengeance, and there is nothing we can do to avoid the consequences.  The younger generation will pay the price for our failure to grapple with that immense problem.

3 hours ago, CA Steve said:

I don't think the Church can avoid this unless they are willing to drastically change some core belief's and requirements, but then it would not have survived as the same Church. Things like open acceptance or LGBTQ members into full fellowship, priesthood to all adult members, drastically reduced criteria for entrance into the temple, public acknowledgement of erroneous past doctrines and policies, greater freedom on the part of members to publicly disagree with leadership, younger and more diverse leadership at top levels, and greater incorporation of different cultures into the liturgy, are some changes that might avoid what seems to be inevitable but then it wouldn't look like the current version of Mormonism. 

Those religious groups which are dissolving and disappearing most quickly are precisely those which have become woke and have made the accommodations you list.  The Methodist Church is a prime example, and is diminishing in size so quickly that the LDS Church now exceeds it in size in the USA.  Those groups which compromise their core values and beliefs and pander to woke demands are the most likely to close their doors and disappear.  And it is precisely those who are woke who are not marrying and are not having children -- the quickest way to become extinct.  This has not been true of the LDS community, nor of the Orthodox Jewish community.

[Robert F. Smith]

1 hour ago, carbon dioxide said:

The church in 3rd Nephi was a struggling church that was few in number in terms of the broader population.  History will repeat.   What is important is that the Church is doing what it is called to do.  Better to have a small, faithful church than a larger church that is not faithful.  We know the overall script of what is going to happen.  The church in the end prevails and the wicked are destroyed.  The only thing in question is timing and the exact sequence of events.   Based on what has been revealed regarding the last days, the condition and path of the world still appears to be on schedule. 

 

1 hour ago, CA Steve said:

Are you saying that if the end of days were to happen now only a few million would be saved from destruction? I know there is a lot of bad stuff going on in the world but it seems to me, most people are decent hard working people who care about their families and friends. Are they too doomed if they are not Mormons?

If God's plan is only effective for 1/10th of 1 percent of his children, something is wrong.

In Deuteronomy, Israel was told that it was not chosen because it was great in number, so that the size of the church (the true congregation of Israel) is not an issue, and never has been.  The promises of the Lord and the Gospel of Jesus Christ are not based on the number of adherents, and never have been.  St Paul understood very well that they who have not the Law are fully included, even if measured only by their own cultural values.  Excluding most of humanity at the end time (eschaton) is not part of God's plan, and never has been.  Like the unconditional covenant of Abraham, the promise that all the peoples of the earth would be blessed by his seed does not require obedience to the Law, but means that the grace of God will be applied to all.  It was the special genius of God's Plan of Salvation that all peoples get a choice, if not here then hereafter, to accept or reject that Gospel of Jesus Christ.  And guess which small group is administering that process?  Right.  The Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-day Saints.  Indeed, modern technology makes that small Church more able to fulfill its necessary function.

[strappinglad]

Sort of a side topic . Unintended consequences. Maybe positive.

Amount of vegetation on earth increasing, BU-led study shows – The Daily Free Press

[rongo]

11 hours ago, Robert F. Smith said:

It is true now, and has been true for some time, that LDS Church growth has not kept pace with world population growth.  That is, the LDS Church has become a smaller and smaller percentage of world population, even when it had phenomenal growth spurts.  This appears to be true now and will continue into the future, if we follow reasonable linear projections.  That does not mean that the LDS Church will actually shrink in absolute numbers.  It is likely to continue growing, even if at a reduced rate.  The reasons for that are sociological, not religious, and the figures will vary markedly according to which part of the world we are examining.

I agree that the Church can fulfill its purpose and destiny with "Gideon's Army" numbers (a la 1 Nephi). 

What I'm not seeing is how the Church won't shrink in absolute numbers if it's birth/marriage rate continue to plummet, along with continuing decline in convert baptisms. Can you expand on the sociological reasons you think would bring this about?

[Tacenda]

2 hours ago, rongo said:

I agree that the Church can fulfill its purpose and destiny with "Gideon's Army" numbers (a la 1 Nephi). 

What I'm not seeing is how the Church won't shrink in absolute numbers if it's birth/marriage rate continue to plummet, along with continuing decline in convert baptisms. Can you expand on the sociological reasons you think would bring this about?

Internet and the youth aren't interested in large families or children at all.