Impact of Church Wide Fast on Flatting Curve of Pandemic

[Fair Dinkum]

My FB feed is awash with members posting of the miraculous impact that the church wide fast has had on flattening the curve of the Corona Virus and the resulting downturn in the number of cases world wide as a result of this fast.  While I acknowledge the benefits of exercising faith and fasting for members of the church, I'm also skeptical that the fast had anything to do with the flattening of the pandemic curve.  I give that credit to the social distancing and governmental stay at home orders.

Fasting as a symbol of faith is wonderful and I am not disparaging fasting.  I just do not see any direct correlation between the flattening of the virus curve and the church wide fast.

For example, last Friday's fast was the second church wide fast called.  Following the first, deaths and infections increased unabated worldwide in spite of the fast.  I don't blame this increase in deaths on the fast either.  I just see this increase as the natural course of the infections from the virus following their natural course thorough society.

If we give credit for the flattening of the curve to God as a miracle due to the recent fast doesn't it then seem right to blame God for ignoring our first fast too? 

This seems like a very slippery slope.  Attributing this flattening to a miracle opens up responsibility for the endemic to God who again can assist in finding keys but seems totally deaf when it come to listening to the prayers of the families who have lost loved ones.

Life is completely random.  Humans, by our very nature, are susceptible to new infections and virus's that our species has not built up an immunity to.  The Corona Virus is no exception nor will it be the last to take its toll on the human family.

Edited April 15, 2020 by Fair Dinkum

[Tacenda]

7 minutes ago, Fair Dinkum said:

My FB feed is awash with members posting of the miraculous impact that the church wide fast has had on flattening the curve of the Corona Virus and the recent downturn in the number of cases world wide since the fast.  While I acknowledge the benefits of exercising faith and fasting for members of the church, I'm also skeptical that the fast had anything to do with the flattening of the pandemic curve.  I give that credit to the social distancing and governmental stay at home orders.

Fasting as a symbol of faith is wonderful and I am not disparaging fasting.  I just do not see any direct correlation between the flattening of the virus curve and the church wide fast.

For example, last Friday's fast was the second church wide fast called.  Following the first, deaths and infections increased unabated worldwide in spite of the fast.  I don't blame this increase in deaths on the fast either.  I just see this increase as the natural course of the infections from the virus following their natural course thorough society.

If we give credit for the flattening of the curve to God as a miracle due to the recent fast doesn't it then seem right to blame God for ignoring our first fast too? 

This seems like a very slippery slope.  Attributing this flattening to a miracle opens up responsibility for the endemic to God who again can assist in finding keys but seems totally deaf when it come to listening to the prayers of the families who have lost loved ones.

Life is completely random.  Humans, by our very nature, are susceptible to new infections and virus's that our species has not built up an immunity to.  The Corona Virus is no exception nor will it be the last to take its toll on the human family.

I feel you here..but IMO it's undeniable that prayers work. It's hard to fathom why God chooses to help certain people and not others. I'm trying to get my head around it. I thought the other day, maybe God has angels helping and we need more of them to cover all the prayers and get the message to God. That's the only thing I can think of, without being angry with God for helping certain people and not others. I wouldn't be so certain that prayers work but have seen studies on how prayers work and instances of it. 

[bsjkki]

It's kind of like the miracle stories when they are shared about how some righteous family fasted and prayed and had so much faith, their loved one was cured. Usually, in that same audience, there is a righteous family who fasted and prayed and their loved one died. It is good to fast and pray but the outcomes are up to God. The curve was flattening before Friday but I will take whatever help God is willing to give us during this crisis. I don't mind putting the 'work' in to receive those blessings. In the long term, this crisis could help people turn back to God during our collective suffering. Who knows what purposes this pandemic fulfills in God's timeline. "Thy will be done" is an important caveat to any petition to God.

[The Nehor]

I don't even think the curve is getting that flat. We've hit testing limits and have (for good or ill) strict restrictions on assuming it was the virus and that includes the dead people not tested even though it is likely they had it. The numbers can only rise as fast as the testing capacity goes up and I am worried about calls to loosen restrictions due to this flattening. That seems to be saying, "This is working so we should stop." There is some encouraging news like the reduction in COVID cases in New York hospitals but there are also the reports of ambulance drivers who say they bring in almost a dozen bodies who died at home on some of their shifts. 

I am not disparaging fasting but I think the perceived immediate stabilization is largely illusory though I also am sure that the restrictions have kept it from being much worse.

[CV75]

33 minutes ago, Fair Dinkum said:

My FB feed is awash with members posting of the miraculous impact that the church wide fast has had on flattening the curve of the Corona Virus and the resulting downturn in the number of cases world wide as a result of this fast.  While I acknowledge the benefits of exercising faith and fasting for members of the church, I'm also skeptical that the fast had anything to do with the flattening of the pandemic curve.  I give that credit to the social distancing and governmental stay at home orders.

Fasting as a symbol of faith is wonderful and I am not disparaging fasting.  I just do not see any direct correlation between the flattening of the virus curve and the church wide fast.

For example, last Friday's fast was the second church wide fast called.  Following the first, deaths and infections increased unabated worldwide in spite of the fast.  I don't blame this increase in deaths on the fast either.  I just see this increase as the natural course of the infections from the virus following their natural course thorough society.

If we give credit for the flattening of the curve to God as a miracle due to the recent fast doesn't it then seem right to blame God for ignoring our first fast too? 

This seems like a very slippery slope.  Attributing this flattening to a miracle opens up responsibility for the endemic to God who again can assist in finding keys but seems totally deaf when it come to listening to the prayers of the families who have lost loved ones.

Life is completely random.  Humans, by our very nature, are susceptible to new infections and virus's that our species has not built up an immunity to.  The Corona Virus is no exception nor will it be the last to take its toll on the human family.

I took President Nelson's invitation to be an expression of the Lord's desire and willingness to bless His children with health and sufficiency contingent on our asking, doing our part, etc. in receiving His help (intervention, grace, etc.). This is in the Lord's interest because the Gospel is best promulgated when the earth's societies and economies can receive and sustain it. Those who have faith can thus pray for those with less faith to help any who are sick, care-giving, problem-solving, inventing, making decisions, etc. Such will do their part (or make their sacrifice as President Nelson put it, and tangibly assist the Lord in making the miracle come to pass). Across the globe, God's grace will attend the efforts of those who know not where to look or find Him, but are anxiously engaged in helping others get well, stay well, and earn a living, in much the same way as "the Lamanites, because of their faith in me at the time of their conversion, were baptized with fire and with the Holy Ghost, and they knew it not," except in this case it is at a level of one's reception of the light of Christ and using their intelligence selflessly instead of perhaps faith in Christ.

[mfbukowski]

54 minutes ago, Fair Dinkum said:

My FB feed is awash with members posting of the miraculous impact that the church wide fast has had on flattening the curve of the Corona Virus and the resulting downturn in the number of cases world wide as a result of this fast.  While I acknowledge the benefits of exercising faith and fasting for members of the church, I'm also skeptical that the fast had anything to do with the flattening of the pandemic curve.  I give that credit to the social distancing and governmental stay at home orders.

Fasting as a symbol of faith is wonderful and I am not disparaging fasting.  I just do not see any direct correlation between the flattening of the virus curve and the church wide fast.

For example, last Friday's fast was the second church wide fast called.  Following the first, deaths and infections increased unabated worldwide in spite of the fast.  I don't blame this increase in deaths on the fast either.  I just see this increase as the natural course of the infections from the virus following their natural course thorough society.

If we give credit for the flattening of the curve to God as a miracle due to the recent fast doesn't it then seem right to blame God for ignoring our first fast too? 

This seems like a very slippery slope.  Attributing this flattening to a miracle opens up responsibility for the endemic to God who again can assist in finding keys but seems totally deaf when it come to listening to the prayers of the families who have lost loved ones.

Life is completely random.  Humans, by our very nature, are susceptible to new infections and virus's that our species has not built up an immunity to.  The Corona Virus is no exception nor will it be the last to take its toll on the human family.

I never thought I would say anything like this but I have a testimony that it turned the tide.

I feel very strongly about that. I believe that I had a revelation to that effect.

And I will never say that I didn't, I now feel a responsibility to testify of that.

[rongo]

One of the main thing we were specifically asked to fast for was for normalcy to return to life, and for stabilization of the economies worldwide. We've definitely seen tides turn as far as reopening*, and where governments are resistant to reopening, building pressure. Many parts of Europe are going to begin reopening starting this and next week, beginning with stores and schools. I think politicians who want to slow-walk this for 18 months are going to face mounting pressure to be more reasonable, and I think this pressure began, oh, Easter Weekend.   

*in most places, hotspots excepted. Not available in all states. Void where prohibited. See store for details.  

ETA: The specific things we were asked to fast for were: " . . . that the present pandemic may be controlled, caregivers protected, the economy strengthened, and life normalized."

I think that focusing solely on "flattening the curve" from April 10 to April 15 is only a very small piece of searching for results and blessings from the fast. 

Edited April 15, 2020 by rongo

[bsjkki]

[mfbukowski]

16 minutes ago, The Nehor said:

I don't even think the curve is getting that flat. We've hit testing limits and have (for good or ill) strict restrictions on assuming it was the virus and that includes the dead people not tested even though it is likely they had it. The numbers can only rise as fast as the testing capacity goes up and I am worried about calls to loosen restrictions due to this flattening. That seems to be saying, "This is working so we should stop." There is some encouraging news like the reduction in COVID cases in New York hospitals but there are also the reports of ambulance drivers who say they bring in almost a dozen bodies who died at home on some of their shifts. 

I am not disparaging fasting but I think the perceived immediate stabilization is largely illusory though I also am sure that the restrictions have kept it from being much worse.

The problem is that we have never had a reliable denominator to say, for example, "One tenth of the population had Covid-19 " In this case the numerator of the fraction would be 1 and the denominator would be 10.

We know how many had the virus confirmed.

Of the number who were tested we know how many died, except for issues of false reporting as perhaps happened in China.

The problem is we will never know how many were infected and had minor symptoms or no symptoms at all, or even quite serious symptoms that were simply misdiagnosed, or just never diagnosed, and stayed at home with the "flu".

That missing number is the key number that we will never have.

It's now being said that perhaps many people had the disease or a similar one even last year. There is some evidence in California, I understand that shows that that could be true. 

 

[mfbukowski]

28 minutes ago, rongo said:

One of the main thing we were specifically asked to fast for was for normalcy to return to life, and for stabilization of the economies worldwide

...And this is largely a psychological issue, and pragmatically psychology IS reality in judging what is "normal" and what is not.

My revelation has given me peace, and that is all that is important to me. I no longer feel any fear.

So did the fast help or not? Who's to say.

[10THAmendment]

The CDC mentioned today that there will be a strong second wave later this year with many medical experts calling for lockdowns until 2022 when (maybe) there is a vaccine. 
 

I hadn’t fasted in nearly 20 years when I accepted Nelson’s invitation to fast this past Friday. My career and ability to support my family depends on this pandemic (or the hysterical response to it) easing and quickly. I don’t know how God is going to do it but I’m still holding on to a mustard seed of faith. 

Edited April 15, 2020 by 10THAmendment

[strappinglad]

Just for some perspective , here is a stark comparison.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=v743pmwuPIY

[The Nehor]

1 hour ago, mfbukowski said:

The problem is that we have never had a reliable denominator to say, for example, "One tenth of the population had Covid-19 " In this case the numerator of the fraction would be 1 and the denominator would be 10.

We know how many had the virus confirmed.

Of the number who were tested we know how many died, except for issues of false reporting as perhaps happened in China.

The problem is we will never know how many were infected and had minor symptoms or no symptoms at all, or even quite serious symptoms that were simply misdiagnosed, or just never diagnosed, and stayed at home with the "flu".

That missing number is the key number that we will never have.

It's now being said that perhaps many people had the disease or a similar one even last year. There is some evidence in California, I understand that shows that that could be true. 

We might get an idea. Although the antibodies from this virus (like other coronaviruses) will probably fade with time we will soon have the ability to test for those antibodies to get a good idea who had it and who did not. Nations with much higher testing rates like South Korea, Taiwan, and Iceland may also give some solid clues.

37 minutes ago, 10THAmendment said:

The CDC mentioned today that there will be a strong second wave later this year with many medical experts calling for lockdowns until 2022 when (maybe) there is a vaccine. 

It is expected we will get another big wave when restrictions loosen. We are also not sure how long immunity lasts. If we find it only lasts months the lockdown will have to go on until we can either vaccinate or it burns out. If it lasts for years a phased ending of the lockout with HEAVY contact tracing (Taiwan style) to catch new cases and quarantine anyone who might be infected to root it out.

It is also worth noting that it is (rough average) about a week from catching it to showing symptoms, another week to the hospital, and another week or two to die. Assuming you do die of course. Most won't. This means in monitoring the death toll we are seeing the results (good or bad) of infectious conditions 3 to 4 weeks ago. These are estimates of course. We don't nearly as much as we sometimes are tempted to think we do about this virus. Testing would give us an earlier glimpse but in the US we are generally only testing the really bad cases so there is little advance warning of what is coming next week.

1 hour ago, mfbukowski said:

I never thought I would say anything like this but I have a testimony that it turned the tide.

I feel very strongly about that. I believe that I had a revelation to that effect.

And I will never say that I didn't, I now feel a responsibility to testify of that.

I hope you are right.

[Calm]

1 hour ago, strappinglad said:

Just for some perspective , here is a stark comparison.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=v743pmwuPIY

Not exactly consistent...an outbreak doesn't last for 450 years (small pox)

Why we probably shouldn't be drawing too many conclusions yet:

https://www.epatientdave.com/2020/04/13/why-i-no-longer-trust-most-virus-statistics/

 

Edited April 15, 2020 by Calm

[10THAmendment]

2 hours ago, mfbukowski said:

I never thought I would say anything like this but I have a testimony that it turned the tide.

I feel very strongly about that. I believe that I had a revelation to that effect.

And I will never say that I didn't, I now feel a responsibility to testify of that.

What exactly does this mean?

[Robert F. Smith]

3 hours ago, Fair Dinkum said:

..........................

Life is completely random.  Humans, by our very nature, are susceptible to new infections and virus's that our species has not built up an immunity to.  The Corona Virus is no exception nor will it be the last to take its toll on the human family.

You probably mean that life is random according to completely determined outcomes based on natural law, thus only seemingly random.  Einstein agreed, saying that God did not play with dice.  Perhaps I have misunderstood you somehow.

Moreover, even if we could somehow make a valid correlation between the course of a disease pandemic and prayer or magic, that would not be proof of anything.  Just a correlation.  Proving cause and effect would not be easy for us mere humans.  We are far too limited in our ability to prove such things.

This yet again shows your confusion in matters of faith on the one hand and reason on the other.  You seem unable to separate them adequately, even though you do give lip service to such a separation.  I don't find that religious people claim that a miracle is automatic whenever one engages in fasting and prayer.  Sounds more like a magical incantation claim to me.  Are you making a category  mistake, Fair Dinkum?

[mfbukowski]

53 minutes ago, 10THAmendment said:

What exactly does this mean?

Too vague a question.  I think it is written in plain english.  Ask a more pointed question and I will be glad to answer.  What are you asking me? About how I know I had a revelation?

I know that the same way I know murder is wrong, and that I should not kill people for fun, and why I find the idea disgusting.

[california boy]

I like everyone's optimism, but where is this miracle drop in numbers that is being reported coming from?  Maybe someone could give some basis for crediting this miracle on fasting?   What data are you using to claim a miracle has happened?  

Tuesday (two days after the fast) marked the biggest death toll to date.  

Quote

The US recorded its highest number of coronavirus deaths in a day after several days in which the death toll had fallen or was nearly flat.

The daily death toll was 2,405 on Tuesday, according to Johns Hopkins University's tally of cases, bringing the total number of US deaths to 26,033. At least 609,240 people have been infected with the virus in the US.

Looks like today is going to be pretty similar.  As of 3:00 pm, 2,336 deaths in the United States. Russia and Sweden for example has had a 16% increase in deaths today.  Mexico's death rate is up 20% today. I haven't been following daily death/confirmed cases in other countries as much, but what I have observed is that social distancing has leveled the numbers in every country that has instituted it.  

Just trying to figure out where everyone is seeing a miracle.  Hope you can shed some light on what you are basing the miracle results of the fast on.

Edited April 15, 2020 by california boy

[Tacenda]

I like that in the state of Utah, no person will be turned away if they want to get tested. On the news it said if anyone is turned away then report the place that turned them away.

[Ratbag]

This would be like saying that the fasting and prayers for rain to stop the fires in Australia had no effect.  The projections from the Bureau of Meteorology in the spring said we would not see any significant rain until April.  It has rained consistently after the fast and the fires are out.  Now my yard looks like a rain forest. 

[Tacenda]

7 minutes ago, Ratbag said:

This would be like saying that the fasting and prayers for rain to stop the fires in Australia had no effect.  The projections from the Bureau of Meteorology in the spring said we would not see any significant rain until April.  It has rained consistently after the fast and the fires are out.  Now my yard looks like a rain forest. 

Good to hear, my brother and sister in law are serving a senior mission there. But they are stuck cleaning out missionaries cars for a bit. 

[The Nehor]

1 hour ago, california boy said:

I like everyone's optimism, but where is this miracle drop in numbers that is being reported coming from?  Maybe someone could give some basis for crediting this miracle on fasting?   What data are you using to claim a miracle has happened?  

Tuesday (two days after the fast) marked the biggest death toll to date.  

Looks like today is going to be pretty similar.  As of 3:00 pm, 2,336 deaths in the United States. Russia and Sweden for example has had a 16% increase in deaths today.  Mexico's death rate is up 20% today. I haven't been following daily death/confirmed cases in other countries as much, but what I have observed is that social distancing has leveled the numbers in every country that has instituted it.  

Just trying to figure out where everyone is seeing a miracle.  Hope you can shed some light on what you are basing the miracle results of the fast on.

I don't think anyone is saying there is a drop. There has been a bit of a plateauing in reported cases.

37 minutes ago, Tacenda said:

I like that in the state of Utah, no person will be turned away if they want to get tested. On the news it said if anyone is turned away then report the place that turned them away.

Pretty sure that is not true. Everything I have read says you have to be exhibiting one of the primary symptoms which is better than some states where the requirements often require you to have been in contact with someone with a confirmed case and the symptoms usually have to be severe. Since tests often take a week to get back it is more valuable for record keeping purposes than it is for treatment. I still do not understand how South Korea was running tests with a one or two day turnaround time and we still have huge backlogs.

[Tacenda]

10 minutes ago, The Nehor said:

I don't think anyone is saying there is a drop. There has been a bit of a plateauing in reported cases.

Pretty sure that is not true. Everything I have read says you have to be exhibiting one of the primary symptoms which is better than some states where the requirements often require you to have been in contact with someone with a confirmed case and the symptoms usually have to be severe. Since tests often take a week to get back it is more valuable for record keeping purposes than it is for treatment. I still do not understand how South Korea was running tests with a one or two day turnaround time and we still have huge backlogs.

Well, everyone sometimes has a cough or itchy throat more or less. I think it's a good idea to get tested if you feel it best in certain circumstances whether they have symptoms or not. My son has been living at a friend's house for the last few weeks, and if he comes home my husband is a bit worried, because he has been retro'g an old trailer and going shopping at Home Depot a lot and around a several that are living in a rented home in Orem. So in that case I don't mind if my son gets tested before coming home. Not really lying but explaining his situation and hoping they'll give him one.

[The Nehor]

Just now, Tacenda said:

Well, everyone sometimes has a cough or itchy throat more or less. I think it's a good idea to get tested if you feel it best in certain circumstances whether they have symptoms or not. My son has been living at a friend's house for the last few weeks, and if he comes home my husband is a bit worried, because he has been retro'g an old trailer and going shopping at Home Depot a lot and around a several that are living in a rented home in Orem. So in that case I don't mind if my son gets tested before coming home. Not really lying but explaining his situation and hoping they'll give him one.

If we had more testing capacity I would agree with you.

[Prof]

I have been impressed by the way the fast has brought people together. Indeed, the Facebook page turned into part testimony meeting and part temple prayer roll substitute. In addition, it has been a possible missionary opportunity with many nonmembers participating. People are still visiting the Facebook page and excited about continuing fasting and prayers.

Perhaps bringing people together is the miracle.