Impact of Church Wide Fast on Flatting Curve of Pandemic

[JAHS]

 I think everyone expected the infection to eventually level off anyway even if we did not fast for it. I think what's important is that any fast a person participates in will have a successful outcome for that person and all the people who have participated, regardless of what they were fasting for. The effect will be different for all people. They will have become a little more humble, a little more trusting in God, a greater feeling of love for their fellow man, and be more faithful and spiritual because of it.  That is the real measure of success for the fast.

[Robert F. Smith]

3 minutes ago, Fair Dinkum said:

Please enlighten me so that I might understand where you are coming from.  Do you reject Free Agency? 

Not at all.  But the notion of free will or free agency is a faith-based belief, and not based on reason or logic.  Your belief in free will is clearly faith-based, which is entirely self-contradictory.

[Robert F. Smith]

12 hours ago, mfbukowski said:

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The error is in misunderstanding what kind of "evidence" justifies spiritual statements as "true", opposed to what kind of evidence justifies experimental data as "true".

Yet again as I know you understand, it always comes down to Cartesian dualism. 

Spiritual "inquiry" seeks for spiritually creating meaning in human lives, while experimental inquiry seeks to find the mechanics of changing the physical environment.

Science specifically eschews teleology, religion is about nothing but teleology.

These are two separate ways of seeing, and describing the world, which are often confused 

Yes, and @Fair Dinkum entirely misses this point.  You state it so well, Mark.  When is your book coming out?  We need it.

[Fair Dinkum]

59 minutes ago, Robert F. Smith said:

"Rhetorical rubbish" is it?  I already cited Einstein's rejection of your view on randomness.  Aside from being a brilliant mathematician and physicist, Einstein was also a fine cellist and philosopher.  I remember being surprised at the clarity and depth of his philosophical writings.  He and other physicists have argued that, even at the subatomic level, everything is mechanistic and determined, all cause and effect.  And that there can be no free will.  I also spoke as follows of the complexity of that cause and effect sequence in the universe: "You are making a decision in a case in which human ability cannot be stretched so far.  Perhaps eons from now, humans will be able to track such complex correlations (maybe with advanced quantum computing), but that would constitute a breakthrough tantamount to Newton's invention of the calculus.  Once again, you are substituting opinion for fact, which leaves you in the same quandary you accuse people of faith."

Your appeal to authority is duly noted and yet falls apart once we move into the randomness of Quantum Mechanics.  Even Einstein struggled with the randomness of particles at the Quantum Level. Zing.

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Perhaps I am speaking here of matters which you simply have not bothered to consider.  The hoi polloi does in fact believe in free will.  I understand that.  I also realize that people don't like to believe that everything they do is mechanical and deterministic.  They prefer a faith in being independent, free humans, a faith which you obviously also enjoy.  Because you are unable to separate faith and reason, you yourself end up subject to the very same apriori faith approach taken by religious folk.

I thought I was conferring with someone approaching this question from a position of faith.  Clearly you're a horse of a different colour but what colour that is I'm still trying to figure out.

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You have tried and failed to make your own subjective fallacy a matter of secular reason.  If you were to apply logic and reason to your faith claims about randomness and free will, you would surely come up short, and that may be why you so vigorously reject the obvious.  Or maybe I am expecting too much of you.  Are you still wet behind the ears, Fair Dinkum?  You initially came across as someone who is well-read.  Perhaps I was wrong.

I'm disappointed, we hardly know each other and yet you've already felt the need to employ a passive aggressive ad hominid approach to defending your point of view.  I must be scoring points for you to result to this approach.

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Perhaps someone out there has argued that the 2 worldwide LDS Fasts (and prayer) have flattened the COVID curve, and that they have actual evidence for it.  I have yet to see that.  Thus far, you are the only person I have found making the claim that this is a key LDS belief. 

Strawman, I have never made this assertion. Please re-read my OP.

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Sounds like a red herring to me.  However, believing such a claim (or perhaps even disbelieving it) seems to me a matter of faith not fact, and certainly not a matter subject to logic or reason.  Again, you seem unable to separate the two concepts, faith and reason.  Both your premises and conclusions are false and misleading.

I believe I've both made my case and defended it as well.  I do apologize for my falling into your trap earlier however when you goaded me and I retaliated. 

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As an archeologist, when I excavate a site, I apply strict reason and logic (science) to the effort, recording everything and gathering materials to be taken back to the lab for closer examination.  When done systematically, under the rules of scientific sampling, the results coming from the lab work are often quite surprising. 

You're an archeologist?  You have my respect. Archeology is on my "Wish I had done that " List

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Since you obviously prefer the apriori approach, your conclusions may differ.

The Scorpion and the frog comes to mind, I get it, it's just your nature. I forgive you.

Edited April 16, 2020 by Fair Dinkum

[Fair Dinkum]

43 minutes ago, JAHS said:

 I think everyone expected the infection to eventually level off anyway even if we did not fast for it. I think what's important is that any fast a person participates in will have a successful outcome for that person and all the people who have participated, regardless of what they were fasting for. The effect will be different for all people. They will have become a little more humble, a little more trusting in God, a greater feeling of love for their fellow man, and be more faithful and spiritual because of it.  That is the real measure of success for the fast.

Love this post also.

[Fair Dinkum]

43 minutes ago, Robert F. Smith said:

Not at all.  But the notion of free will or free agency is a faith-based belief, and not based on reason or logic.  Your belief in free will is clearly faith-based, which is entirely self-contradictory.

You're making assumptions.  Be careful.

[Fair Dinkum]

54 minutes ago, Robert F. Smith said:

Yes, and @Fair Dinkum entirely misses this point.  You state it so well, Mark.  When is your book coming out?  We need it.

It must be confirming to have allies. Argumentum ad populum,  doesn't strengthen your premise nor does it eliminate the randomness of our existence.

Edited April 16, 2020 by Fair Dinkum

[CV75]

50 minutes ago, Robert F. Smith said:

So it is very much a harmless practical exercise.  More than just "the opiate of the people."  Pres David O. McKay used to put a high value on meditation, which can achieve a like effect.  Is that the objective in the Prophet calling for a churchwide fasting and prayer?  Should we expect miraculous results?  Should we be disappointed if no obvious miracles occur?  Are miracles even possible?

By faith I count / consider all that I described as a miracle because fasting, prayer, and grace-attending action draw upon laws that are not of this world but made available through the condescension of God.

[The Nehor]

Woke up in the middle of last night a sweaty mess and had a brief moment of concern that I had caught and then started vomiting. Probably not. Just garden-variety mild food poisoning.

[The Nehor]

2 hours ago, JAHS said:

 I think everyone expected the infection to eventually level off anyway even if we did not fast for it. I think what's important is that any fast a person participates in will have a successful outcome for that person and all the people who have participated, regardless of what they were fasting for. The effect will be different for all people. They will have become a little more humble, a little more trusting in God, a greater feeling of love for their fellow man, and be more faithful and spiritual because of it.  That is the real measure of success for the fast.

We are way too early in this to be thinking any leveling off is permanent.

[Teancum]

On 4/15/2020 at 1:46 PM, Fair Dinkum said:

My FB feed is awash with members posting of the miraculous impact that the church wide fast has had on flattening the curve of the Corona Virus and the resulting downturn in the number of cases world wide as a result of this fast.  While I acknowledge the benefits of exercising faith and fasting for members of the church, I'm also skeptical that the fast had anything to do with the flattening of the pandemic curve.  I give that credit to the social distancing and governmental stay at home orders.

Fasting as a symbol of faith is wonderful and I am not disparaging fasting.  I just do not see any direct correlation between the flattening of the virus curve and the church wide fast.

For example, last Friday's fast was the second church wide fast called.  Following the first, deaths and infections increased unabated worldwide in spite of the fast.  I don't blame this increase in deaths on the fast either.  I just see this increase as the natural course of the infections from the virus following their natural course thorough society.

If we give credit for the flattening of the curve to God as a miracle due to the recent fast doesn't it then seem right to blame God for ignoring our first fast too? 

This seems like a very slippery slope.  Attributing this flattening to a miracle opens up responsibility for the endemic to God who again can assist in finding keys but seems totally deaf when it come to listening to the prayers of the families who have lost loved ones.

Life is completely random.  Humans, by our very nature, are susceptible to new infections and virus's that our species has not built up an immunity to.  The Corona Virus is no exception nor will it be the last to take its toll on the human family.

The fast has absolutely  nothing to do with flattening the curve. None. Not a whit.

[Teancum]

On 4/15/2020 at 2:43 PM, mfbukowski said:

I never thought I would say anything like this but I have a testimony that it turned the tide.

I feel very strongly about that. I believe that I had a revelation to that effect.

And I will never say that I didn't, I now feel a responsibility to testify of that.

Yea your are deluded if you think that. Revelation? Please...What governors and other leaders in other countries are doing is turning the tide. If it turned the tide maybe the virus should have just disappeared. I am sure the 31k who have died  in the US are feeling good about your "revelation."

[The Nehor]

2 hours ago, longview said:

There is a real possibility that COVID-19 deaths will only reach about half of the seasonal flu deaths.  In which case, we should be gearing up for herd immunity.  If necessary, help the aged and infirm with protective shield apparatus and self isolation.

The seasonal flu deaths for what year? The 2018-2019 flu season killed about 34,000 people. COVID has killed almost 27,000 so far and the yesterday the reported death toll was about 900. COVID numbers are also underreported due to shortage of test equipment. We may have already passed it. We are going to have a lot of pneumonia deaths and have to estimate how many came from COVID and how many from other causes. This is supposed to be a worse year for regular influenza but it may actually end up being a better year as the measures taken against COVID also mitigate flu transmission. Still, if the death rate does not drop (quickly and probably unrealistically) COVID is going to supass influenza deaths with ease.

A month ago there were about 107 COVID deaths. COVID got a late start in the US obviously compared to the flue. It also means we have had about 26k deaths in a month. No flu outside previous flu pandemics has ever come anywhere close to that many fatalities in that short of a period. Everything I have read and based on transmission rate I would say if we get out of this with under 100,000 deaths we were very fortunate.

[mfbukowski]

5 hours ago, SteveO said:

Out of curiosity...this happen Tuesday night?

No, Saturday.  Why?

Edited April 16, 2020 by mfbukowski

[SteveO]

8 minutes ago, mfbukowski said:

No, Saturday.  Why?

Got mine Tuesday night.  Was pretty awe inspiring.  Just wondering if maybe we were on the same wavelength

[JAHS]

3 hours ago, The Nehor said:

We are way too early in this to be thinking any leveling off is permanent.

Maybe. Where's your faith? 😉  This will eventually go the way of other past viruses and will just be a bad memory in a year or so.

[Robert F. Smith]

5 hours ago, CV75 said:

By faith I count / consider all that I described as a miracle because fasting, prayer, and grace-attending action draw upon laws that are not of this world but made available through the condescension of God.

Can't argue with that.

[Robert F. Smith]

5 hours ago, Fair Dinkum said:

It must be confirming to have allies. Argumentum ad populum,  doesn't strengthen your premise nor does it eliminate the randomness of our existence.

I thought Mark's statement was well made.  If you don't think so, so be it.  I prefer that you engage the actual issue, rather than simply dismiss it without a logical reason.

[Robert F. Smith]

5 hours ago, Fair Dinkum said:

You're making assumptions.  Be careful.

I recall many years ago when I lived in Jerusalem, a guy from SLC showed up at the LDS branch president's house.  He was a law student at the UofU.  He strongly expressed his belief in atheism, and was quite annoyed with me when I pointed out that it was a matter of faith to him.

[Robert F. Smith]

5 hours ago, Fair Dinkum said:

Your appeal to authority is duly noted and yet falls apart once we move into the randomness of Quantum Mechanics.  Even Einstein struggled with the randomness of particles at the Quantum Level. Zing.

......................................

Einstein was put off by Quantum Entanglement (spooky action at a distance), which is clearly impossible.  Yet that spooky action at a distance follows strict rules and does in no way have to be random.  Try again, Fair Dinkum.  https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jvZ5m3UMer4

 

[The Nehor]

54 minutes ago, JAHS said:

Maybe. Where's your faith? 😉

In Christ where it belongs.

54 minutes ago, JAHS said:

This will eventually go the way of other past viruses and will just be a bad memory in a year or so.

That is not the case with every disease in history. Black Death came in waves. Polio has probably been around for millenia. I know of no guarantee that this generation will not experience similar difficulties.

[JAHS]

28 minutes ago, The Nehor said:

In Christ where it belongs.

That is not the case with every disease in history. Black Death came in waves. Polio has probably been around for millenia. I know of no guarantee that this generation will not experience similar difficulties.

At least we will be able to live and thrive again regardless of how long it hangs around, just like we have been able to do with all the other diseases.

[Fair Dinkum]

2 hours ago, Robert F. Smith said:

I recall many years ago when I lived in Jerusalem, a guy from SLC showed up at the LDS branch president's house.  He was a law student at the UofU.  He strongly expressed his belief in atheism, and was quite annoyed with me when I pointed out that it was a matter of faith to him.

I agree with you

[The Nehor]

3 hours ago, JAHS said:

At least we will be able to live and thrive again regardless of how long it hangs around, just like we have been able to do with all the other diseases.

I was never much of a thriver but yes, we will either put it behind us or adapt.

[Meadowchik]

I think that a fast for spiritual purpose is more about orienting ourselves.