1 Million Members Have Left Over Gay Marriage????

[jkwilliams]

My understanding is that if you resign, it takes FP approval to be re-baptized.

 

Excommunicated members are brought back in (under most circumstances) through a disciplinary council held at the ward or stake level (depending on priesthood status).

 

That's interesting. I had no idea. 

[JAHS]

I agree.  Maybe resigned aren't on that list.  But their names need to be somewhere because the re-baptism process is different for resigned members vs excommunicated vs never-mo's.

 

Not sure how reliable Cumorah.com or where they get their info but here is what they say regarding how membership is counted:

 

"The LDS Church has most commonly emphasized and referenced membership growth when reporting and tracking the growth of the Church instead of other growth indicators such as congregational growth, increases in the number of stakes and districts, and the number of full-time missionaries serving. LDS Church membership consists of all baptized individuals on church records regardless of their current self religious affiliation or activity status, and children on record. Excommunicated and resigned members, investigators that were baptized but were not confirmed, deceased members, and children of record not baptized at age eight are eventually removed from church records."

 

http://www.cumorah.com/index.php?target=view_other_articles&story_id=669&cat_id=35

 

So Membership =  (Baptized members + Children of Record) - (Excommunicated + resigned + nonconfirmed + deceased + Children of record not baptized)

 

The fact that they are "eventually removed from church records", makes it hard to get an exact current number.

[rockpond]

Not sure how reliable Cumorah.com or where they get their info but here is what they say regarding how membership is counted:

 

"The LDS Church has most commonly emphasized and referenced membership growth when reporting and tracking the growth of the Church instead of other growth indicators such as congregational growth, increases in the number of stakes and districts, and the number of full-time missionaries serving. LDS Church membership consists of all baptized individuals on church records regardless of their current self religious affiliation or activity status, and children on record. Excommunicated and resigned members, investigators that were baptized but were not confirmed, deceased members, and children of record not baptized at age eight are eventually removed from church records."

 

http://www.cumorah.com/index.php?target=view_other_articles&story_id=669&cat_id=35

 

So Membership =  (Baptized members + Children of Record) - (Excommunicated + resigned + nonconfirmed + deceased + Children of record not baptized)

 

The fact that they are "eventually removed from church records", makes it hard to get an exact current number.

 

I'm not sure what "eventually removed from church records" means.  And while the conclusion is logical, I'm not sure what documented support exists.

 

More importantly, I'm not sure how to reconcile the data with that statement.  How can the death rate for a global, 15 million member church be half that of the worldwide average?

 

The only conclusion I can hypothesize is that we leave members on for some period of time after they die and we may also continue to count them after excommunication and possibly resignation.

[filovirus]

More importantly, I'm not sure how to reconcile the data with that statement. How can the death rate for a global, 15 million member church be half that of the worldwide average?

The only conclusion I can hypothesize is that we leave members on for some period of time after they die and we may also continue to count them after excommunication and possibly resignation.

I've heard that those members who have lost contact with the church are only removed when they hit their 99th birthday. This would give lag time and the death rate would bee off.

[Stone holm]

I'm not sure what "eventually removed from church records" means.  And while the conclusion is logical, I'm not sure what documented support exists.

 

More importantly, I'm not sure how to reconcile the data with that statement.  How can the death rate for a global, 15 million member church be half that of the worldwide average?

 

The only conclusion I can hypothesize is that we leave members on for some period of time after they die and we may also continue to count them after excommunication and possibly resignation.

 

I have never considered the "membership" numbers very reliable, we have "members" that haven't darkened the door of our Ward at anytime while I have livered here which is more than 20 years.  Probably, if you take the published figure and divide it in half -- you would probably be pretty close to the number of members that outside observers would consider members.

[rockpond]

I've heard that those members who have lost contact with the church are only removed when they hit their 99th birthday. This would give lag time and the death rate would bee off.

 

I've heard different ages... 110 was the latest number that I read (from an unofficial source).  But I don't think that alone can account for the very low death rate.

[rockpond]

I have never considered the "membership" numbers very reliable, we have "members" that haven't darkened the door of our Ward at anytime while I have livered here which is more than 20 years.  Probably, if you take the published figure and divide it in half -- you would probably be pretty close to the number of members that outside observers would consider members.

 

Yeah, we have about 12-13% in our ward who have never stepped foot inside our ward building.

[Thinking]

My understanding is that if you resign, it takes FP approval to be re-baptized.

 

Which means that nobody's name is ever fully removed. Otherwise, how would they know? The records of those who resign are moved to a different folder, but they don't disappear into cyberspace.

[stemelbow]

I agree.  Maybe resigned aren't on that list.  But their names need to be somewhere because the re-baptism process is different for resigned members vs excommunicated vs never-mo's.

Well that's a good point. I'm just going to go with what we're told when numbers are reported. They say members on record. Those who have been ex'd and those who have their names removed aren't members. This would suggest all those on records who aren't members, officially, aren't counted in the total.

Thus, my DENr index seems reasonable.

[Gray]

I've heard that those members who have lost contact with the church are only removed when they hit their 99th birthday. This would give lag time and the death rate would bee off.

 

I've heard it's after they turn 110, but I don't know if there's a good source for that

[JAHS]

I've heard it's after they turn 110, but I don't know if there's a good source for that

110 years is the number they use for a deceased person to be elligible to have temple work done for them. Maybe they use the same number to remove the member record. 

[rockpond]

Well that's a good point. I'm just going to go with what we're told when numbers are reported. They say members on record. Those who have been ex'd and those who have their names removed aren't members. This would suggest all those on records who aren't members, officially, aren't counted in the total.

Thus, my DENr index seems reasonable.

 

You've done great work and I agree with your logic (and math).  But that still doesn't explain the death rate that runs about half the global average.

[Mike1991]

I actually started to investigate the church as a man who deals with same-sex attraction who can see with eyes wide open that it is not God's plan for his sons and daughters to raise children or marry as same-sex couples. I value the churches "not changing doctrine to suit popular opinion"'s stance. This gospel is centered on family and the temple, I don't believe that many people left over something like this, whatsoever!   

[Avatar4321]

You've done great work and I agree with your logic (and math).  But that still doesn't explain the death rate that runs about half the global average.

The word of wisdom would make faithful members potentially live longer than the average population. Also I'm not sure the demographic rates match the world. How many are youth or older members compared to global numbers. Too many variables without information to accurately look at numbers

[Calm]

But only on average for the US ten years for males and five years for females:

 

http://www.deseretnews.com/article/705377709/UCLA-study-proves-Mormons-live-longer.html?pg=all

 

The study revealed Mormon males had a life expectancy of 84.1 years — 9.8 years longer than that of U.S. white males. Mormon females had a life expectancy of 86.1 years — 5.6 years longer than U.S. white females.Enstrom explained in a telephone interview that there was less difference in the comparison of women than of men because women generally live substantially longer than men because of fewer risk factors in their occupations and lives.Another staggeringly significant fact to emerge from the study: The more strictly and constantly Mormons followed Mormon lifestyle elements, the longer they live.Other interesting findings from the study include:

• Religiously active LDS men, i.e. high priests, have 40 percent less chance, on average over the years, of dying than white American men.
• Active Mormon women have 27 percent less chance, on average over the years, of dying than white American women.
• Mormon men who never smoked, attend church at least weekly, obtained at least 12 years of education and are married have a 50 percent less chance, on average over the years, of dying than their national counterparts.
• Mormon women who do the same things have a 34 percent less chance, on average over the years, of dying than their counterparts. These are called optimal Mormon groups in the study.
• The probability of death is lowered to 52 percent for Mormon men and 40 percent for Mormon women who consistently live the Word of Wisdom, based on the measurement of moderate body mass index.
• If you add regular physical activity and seven to eight hours of sleep per night, the probability of death is 56 percent less for Mormon men and 43 percent less for Mormon women than their counterparts.

 

•  

Edited October 26, 2015 by Calm

[Meadowchik]

You've done great work and I agree with your logic (and math).  But that still doesn't explain the death rate that runs about half the global average.

 

Just catching this, but you're talking about the recording methods that keep people on the lists longer than the global average, right?

 

If so, the large American cohort of Mormons gives LDS a generally higher life expectancy.  I'm not sure about how the global numbers are calculated, but infant mortality can play a role in shortening the global average while having a smaller effect on Mormons.

 

Personally, I would imagine that the Church has just as strong an interest in knowing how little members it has as opposed to how many, so I would presume whatever calculation their using is intended for accuracy, so they can have as clear a perspective as possible.

[sunstoned]

Which means that nobody's name is ever fully removed. Otherwise, how would they know? The records of those who resign are moved to a different folder, but they don't disappear into cyberspace.

They do keep track.  An example is the admissions or job applicant process at BYU.  As part of this process, a check is made for membership status.  If you are a former member, either excommunicated or voluntary name removal, this will come up in the check.  A colleague of mine was turned down for employment for this very reason.

[sunstoned]

Just catching this, but you're talking about the recording methods that keep people on the lists longer than the global average, right?

 

If so, the large American cohort of Mormons gives LDS a generally higher life expectancy.  I'm not sure about how the global numbers are calculated, but infant mortality can play a role in shortening the global average while having a smaller effect on Mormons.

 

Personally, I would imagine that the Church has just as strong an interest in knowing how little members it has as opposed to how many, so I would presume whatever calculation their using is intended for accuracy, so they can have as clear a perspective as possible.

What the church knows and what they choose to report could be two very different things.

[Meadowchik]

What the church knows and what they choose to report could be two very different things.

 

Sure. But without significant evidence of duplicity, there's not a reason to make accusations.  A strong, statistically-backed approximation would not be duplicitous.

[rockpond]

The word of wisdom would make faithful members potentially live longer than the average population. Also I'm not sure the demographic rates match the world. How many are youth or older members compared to global numbers. Too many variables without information to accurately look at numbers

 

 

But only on average for the US ten years for males and five years for females:

 

http://www.deseretnews.com/article/705377709/UCLA-study-proves-Mormons-live-longer.html?pg=all

 

•  

 

 

Just catching this, but you're talking about the recording methods that keep people on the lists longer than the global average, right?

 

If so, the large American cohort of Mormons gives LDS a generally higher life expectancy.  I'm not sure about how the global numbers are calculated, but infant mortality can play a role in shortening the global average while having a smaller effect on Mormons.

 

Personally, I would imagine that the Church has just as strong an interest in knowing how little members it has as opposed to how many, so I would presume whatever calculation their using is intended for accuracy, so they can have as clear a perspective as possible.

 

I'm gonna respond to all three posts here because I think the three of you raise some interesting points:

 

1. (Calm) I know that there's some data showing our lifestyle gives us a higher life expectancy.  But I've never been able to figure out how to convert longer life expectancy into mortality rates for a comparison.
2. (Meadowchik) Actually, US death rate is 8.15, global average is 7.8.  See https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/resources/the-world-factbook/geos/xx.html
3. (Avatar & Meadowchik) You both kind of touched on this one... I'm not sure how to factor in infant mortality.  Since infant mortality is generally defined as death within first year of life, it's hard to say what percentage of that infant mortality rate gets captured/missed in LDS membership numbers.  So that's a big hole in analyzing this.

My Summary:  Given the data available via Gen Conf, the triangulated death rate for church members tends to run about 4 per 1,000.  Global average tends to run around 8 per 1,000.  I don't think that our higher life expectancy from a healthier lifestyle can totally bridge that gap.  Keeping inactive members on the lists after their death (since their deaths aren't known to local wards/branches) would account for some of the gap.  Perhaps the rest of the gap can be accounted for by infant mortality numbers where those infants aren't captured in church records.

 

That actually helps me make sense of the numbers.  Thanks.  Your thoughts?

[Meadowchik]

I'm gonna respond to all three posts here because I think the three of you raise some interesting points:

 

1. (Calm) I know that there's some data showing our lifestyle gives us a higher life expectancy.  But I've never been able to figure out how to convert longer life expectancy into mortality rates for a comparison.
2. (Meadowchik) Actually, US death rate is 8.15, global average is 7.8.  See https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/resources/the-world-factbook/geos/xx.html
3. (Avatar & Meadowchik) You both kind of touched on this one... I'm not sure how to factor in infant mortality.  Since infant mortality is generally defined as death within first year of life, it's hard to say what percentage of that infant mortality rate gets captured/missed in LDS membership numbers.  So that's a big hole in analyzing this.

My Summary:  Given the data available via Gen Conf, the triangulated death rate for church members tends to run about 4 per 1,000.  Global average tends to run around 8 per 1,000.  I don't think that our higher life expectancy from a healthier lifestyle can totally bridge that gap.  Keeping inactive members on the lists after their death (since their deaths aren't known to local wards/branches) would account for some of the gap.  Perhaps the rest of the gap can be accounted for by infant mortality numbers where those infants aren't captured in church records.

 

That actually helps me make sense of the numbers.  Thanks.  Your thoughts?

 

Yup.  I was thinking that the Mormon American numbers are better than the American numbers, both in life expectancy for those living beyond the first year, and for infant mortality.

 

(Tangent:  Outcries have been made for the comparatively poor infant mortality rates for America compared to other countries, but I think there are issues there that are not accounted:  First, measurement varies with country: some do not count a stillbirth or premature baby dying as an infant death, some even wait for weeks after birth to make the baby countable whether the baby lives or not.  Also, in America, there seems to be a great deal of resources applied to the saving of preemies, who have a lower risk of survival.  So because they are kept alive or measures are taken to prolong the gestation period, babies who would not be counted in other countries when they die prematurely are counted in America...This may be the one area for Mormons where infant mortality may be affected compared to the total population, presuming Mormons are less likely to abort because of an unhealthy fetus or difficult pregnancy.)

[Russell C McGregor]

I'm gonna respond to all three posts here because I think the three of you raise some interesting points:

 

1. (Calm) I know that there's some data showing our lifestyle gives us a higher life expectancy.  But I've never been able to figure out how to convert longer life expectancy into mortality rates for a comparison.
2. (Meadowchik) Actually, US death rate is 8.15, global average is 7.8.  See https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/resources/the-world-factbook/geos/xx.html
3. (Avatar & Meadowchik) You both kind of touched on this one... I'm not sure how to factor in infant mortality.  Since infant mortality is generally defined as death within first year of life, it's hard to say what percentage of that infant mortality rate gets captured/missed in LDS membership numbers.  So that's a big hole in analyzing this.

My Summary:  Given the data available via Gen Conf, the triangulated death rate for church members tends to run about 4 per 1,000.  Global average tends to run around 8 per 1,000.  I don't think that our higher life expectancy from a healthier lifestyle can totally bridge that gap.  Keeping inactive members on the lists after their death (since their deaths aren't known to local wards/branches) would account for some of the gap.  Perhaps the rest of the gap can be accounted for by infant mortality numbers where those infants aren't captured in church records.

 

That actually helps me make sense of the numbers.  Thanks.  Your thoughts?

 

 

Another factor is that the Church's higher than average birth rate gives it an overall younger age profile, despite longer lifespans. IOW, fewer people die in a younger population.

[Calm]

IOW, fewer people die in a younger population.

 

And given the WoW and missions, we probably have a significantly lower death rate for young adults as there would be less alcohol and drug related deaths and missionaries are less involved in accident causing behaviour.  

 

IIRC, being an active LDS young man (as measured by age appropriate Aaronic priesthood office) lowers a young man's likelihood to commit (or maybe attempt...it has been awhile since I read the study) suicide by 10 times compared to a nonLDS young man and 4 times less likely compared to an inactive LDS young man.  (I don't recall suggested explanations, one of course would the the less likely involvement in recreational drugs including alcohol, I suspect feeling a community purpose/ties would contribute as well as I believe strong community ties are shown to be helpful for the general population.

[Stone holm]

http://www.businessinsider.com/the-things-most-likely-to-kill-you-in-one-infographic-2015-2

[Stone holm]

http://www.businessinsider.com/the-things-most-likely-to-kill-you-in-one-infographic-2015-2

This is a link to the things most likely to kill you.