Co-vid 19: What Is and Isn't Known, Discussion and Debate

[ksfisher]

30 minutes ago, Calm said:

Yeah, I saw that.  It didn't say how it worked so we can't do the same unfortunately.

We can't all be McGyver, can we

[pogi]

48 minutes ago, T-Shirt said:

So, no, what happened in New York was not going to happen all across America, not even close.  

And you know this how?  Because New York is on Mars?  That is how some people looked at New York.  Is Italy on Pluto?  Based on the info we had at the time, there was no reason to think that this couldn't happen elsewhere, here, on planet earth where the virus is in pandemic mode.  Keep in mind, we are only a few months into this. There is still reason to be alarmed. I am still raising the alarm. 

PS. what happened in New York with freezer trucks did, and is, happening elsewhere.  Maybe not to the same scale, but it is happening. 

https://www.forbes.com/sites/jemimamcevoy/2020/07/17/repeating-nys-nightmare-texas-and-arizona-request-refrigerated-trucks-for-filling-morgues/#ebd0a812214b

It's no different than the flu though, right?  Just a little wind is all.  Nothing to be alarmed about.

Edited August 12, 2020 by pogi

[T-Shirt]

Another thing that bothers me is all of the fear being spread about opening schools.  I don't know what is going to happen, but I can read statistics and they just don't seem to support all of the fears that are spread.  I agree with being cautious, but sometimes it seems there can be no discussion about it, you either agree that closing schools is right or you get shouted down and accused of wanting to kill grandparents.  Statistics form the CDC website indicate the following:

Deaths in the United States from Covid-19 for those under 15 as a percentage is .000014%.  Flu deaths for the same age group over the same period of time is 2.25 times higher.  Covid deaths for those under 25 is .00008%.  Covid deaths for those under 55 is .003%.  It is certainly possible that in a school environment cases could increase, but it is also possible, with all of the masks and cleaning, it could be better than a typical school year with the cold and the flu.  Furthermore, of those who actually contract the virus, the death rate for those under 15 is .0009%, those under 25 is .005% and those under 55 is .22%.  Logically, if precautions are taken to protect older folks and those who are high risk, the benefits of opening schools could far outweigh the risks.

[T-Shirt]

41 minutes ago, pogi said:

It's no different than the flu though, right?  Just a little wind is all.  Nothing to be alarmed about.

I never said this, so knock it off!  Every time someone calls you on something, you get nasty. Why?  When you first made the post in question, it was June 9th.  What occurred in those pictures happened in March and April.  Even on June 9th, nothing even remotely close to what happened in NY, in March and April, was happening anywhere else, and I think you probably knew it.

Edited August 12, 2020 by T-Shirt

[T-Shirt]

41 minutes ago, pogi said:

If you would have read the article about Hart Island, you would have understood that burials there increased from around 2 dozen/week, but when Covid struck they had to hire contract workers to keep up with the influx and were burying 2 dozen/day. 

I would appreciate it if you would not accuse me of something, the truth of which  you have no way of knowing.  I read the article and searched for more information so I could fully understand.  I even alluded to the fact that they were burying a significant number of Covid patients there.  You posted the images and the link on June 9th.  The article you linked to was from April 10th.  On June 9th, these mass burials were no longer happening in NY and nothing even remotely close has happened anywhere, then or since then.  You made it sound like what was happening in NY was coming to everyone.

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I was trying to illicit respect for the virus and a reality-check, rather than fear,

I think you were trying to cause fear.  But, I understand, you are close to it everyday, overworked and overwhelmed, I can't image the anxiety that could cause.

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because many seemed intent on diminishing the super typhoon happening in New York, to mere "wind".  No worse than a regular flu season.  I posted those pics to accentuate that this is no normal flu season.  When is the last time anyone has seen anything like that in a normal flu season, anywhere? 

I don't know who these, "many" are, there are always going to be those who are irrational, but that can be said for both sides.  You haven't heard me say that it is no worse than the flu or the wind.

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If warning people that the wind can be deadly and that we should prepare because there is a storm-a-brewing, is "fear-mongering", than I am guilty as charged.  Alarmist? yes.  I hope so. 

Even that can be overblown.  You often accuse others of spreading misinformation.  Your post on June 9th was misinformation.

[pogi]

8 minutes ago, T-Shirt said:

Another thing that bothers me is all of the fear being spread about opening schools.  I don't know what is going to happen, but I can read statistics and they just don't seem to support all of the fears that are spread.  I agree with being cautious, but sometimes it seems there can be no discussion about it, you either agree that closing schools is right or you get shouted down and accused of wanting to kill grandparents.  Statistics form the CDC website indicate the following:

Deaths in the United States from Covid-19 for those under 15 as a percentage is .000014%.  Flu deaths for the same age group over the same period of time is 2.25 times higher.  Covid deaths for those under 25 is .00008%.  Covid deaths for those under 55 is .003%.  It is certainly possible that in a school environment cases could increase, but it is also possible, with all of the masks and cleaning, it could be better than a typical school year with the cold and the flu.  Furthermore, of those who actually contract the virus, the death rate for those under 15 is .0009%, those under 25 is .005% and those under 55 is .22%.  Logically, if precautions are taken to protect older folks and those who are high risk, the benefits of opening schools could far outweigh the risks.

Look, I am not against schools opening.  But to suggest that people have no valid reason to fear feels like pure complacency and pollyannaism to me.   One thing that bothers me is that people only focus on deaths, as if other morbidities and hospitalizations don't matter.  Let me guess, kids going back to school will only infect those under 55, right?  Is that why you stopped your statistics there?  But, if you obsess about deaths only, what about the statistic of 165,000 dead in under 6 months?  Does that not raise any flags?  How is school opening going to affect that number?  I guess we'll see, but to suggest that statistics don't support peoples fears is blind.  There are so many reasons that people are rightly concerned and even justifiably afraid of schools opening.  We are learning that kids may be important spreaders and when you combine that with more mild symptoms and more asymptomatic cases, that is a...problem.  Kids are going to be exposed to this virus like no time in US history, and then sent out into the world.  That should give us all pause. 

As you said, "I don't know what is going to happen", that is enough for some people to fear.  Why can't you just validate people?  What we are dealing with is unprecedented in modern history.   

[rodheadlee]

Too bad they don't announce abortion deaths like they do covid-19 deaths.

[pogi]

31 minutes ago, T-Shirt said:

I never said this, so knock it off!  

I thought it was you I was responding to back then.  I seem to recall me posting these pictures in response to someone comparing Covid to the flu.

33 minutes ago, T-Shirt said:

Every time someone calls you on something, you get nasty. Why?  

Because I don't like being dismissed as a fear-mongerer when I was simply emphasizing that "this is no flu" and needs to be taken more seriously.  

39 minutes ago, T-Shirt said:

What occurred in those pictures happened in March and April.  Even on June 9th, nothing even remotely close to what happened in NY, in March and April, was happening anywhere else, and you knew it.

 Why couldn't it have happened elsewhere T-Shirt?  Again, is New York on Mars or something?  Why couldn't have what happened in New York and Italy happen in India, Africa (I hate to think about what is going on in these places with high population density, poor sanitation, and where numbers are not accurately being tracked and reported), or even in Texas, Arizona, California, or Florida, etc?   2 months later and all is well?  More pollyannaism?   Sometimes it is necessary to emphasize the worst side of things when people are blind to the realities of what a virus is capable of...and New York is what this virus is capable of. It pushed New York to it's knees, but some still refuse to respect it. 

 

 

 

 

[rodheadlee]

I don't have any fingerprints left from washing my hands all the time. Every time I wash my hands I have to go pee then  I have to wash my hands every time I wash my hands I have to go pee so then I wash my hands then I have to go pee then I have to wash my hands again. It never ends.

[pogi]

59 minutes ago, T-Shirt said:

 You made it sound like what was happening in NY was coming to everyone.

Bologna. For the 3rd or 4th time, I used these pictures to demonstrate what this virus is capable of (this really happened, here, on planet earth - just a couple months before I posted it.  Still very fresh and raw) and to suggest that this is no flu.  I never once thought, or suggested, that we would see this in every city.  But I had absolutely no reason to believe that hospitals wouldn't be overrun and that Covid related deaths wouldn't skyrocket across the country (165,000 deaths in around 5 months with no end in sight).  And it is happening, just as I thought. 

59 minutes ago, T-Shirt said:

I think you were trying to cause fear.

Nope.  It was in response to someone who said that it was no worse than the flu and that we aren't seeing bodies in the streets anywhere... I corrected them. 

59 minutes ago, T-Shirt said:

I don't know who these, "many" are, there are always going to be those who are irrational, but that can be said for both sides.  You haven't heard me say that it is no worse than the flu or the wind.

There have been several in these forums.  I might be confusing you for others, but I don't recall you ever giving this virus the respect it deserves either. If you think I am a fear monger, then you must not understand me or this virus. I am no fear-monger. 

 

Edited August 12, 2020 by pogi

[T-Shirt]

1 hour ago, pogi said:

Look, I am not against schools opening.  But to suggest that people have no valid reason to fear feels like pure complacency and pollyannaism to me.   

I never said this.  Covid should be respected and there is valid reason to fear, but some are spreading fear that far exceeds reality.  Spreading excessive fear is not helpful.

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One thing that bothers me is that people only focus on deaths, as if other morbidities and hospitalizations don't matter.

  I haven't done that.

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Let me guess, kids going back to school will only infect those under 55, right?  Is that why you stopped your statistics there? 

Are you reading my posts?  CDC statistics are in groups.  I was covering the groups that represented the vast majority of teachers.  81% of teachers are under 55.  I specifically said that protecting those who are older and  at risks is very important.  If school age kids live in a home with someone over 60 or high risk, they should probably consider other options.  Should we close schools to protect one or two percent when there are other options for them?

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But, if you obsess about deaths only, what about the statistic of 165,000 dead in under 6 months?  Does that not raise any flags? 

First of all, I am not obsessing over deaths.  I am quite distraught over the number of deaths.  However, of those deaths, almost 50% are form nursing homes and care centers.  Those are not affected by schools being open.  The age group of those attending school and the teachers represent 1% of that number.

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How is school opening going to affect that number?  I guess we'll see, but to suggest that statistics don't support peoples fears is blind. 

People are going to fear this and rightly so.  However, they should be given real numbers so their fear level can be more equal to reality and they can make informed decisions.

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There are so many reasons that people are rightly concerned and even justifiably afraid of schools opening.  We are learning that kids may be important spreaders and when you combine that with more mild symptoms and more asymptomatic cases, that is a...problem. 

Maybe, but, right now, there is very little data on this.

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Kids are going to be exposed to this virus like no time in US history, and then sent out into the world.  That should give us all pause. 

Well, since this virus has not ever existed in history, that is kind of an obvious point, but I understand the point you are trying to make.

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As you said, "I don't know what is going to happen", that is enough for some people to fear.  Why can't you just validate people?  What we are dealing with is unprecedented in modern history.   

I really am kind of tired of arguing over this.  All I am saying is that the spreading of excessive fear is happening all over the place, especially in the media.  It is not helpful.

Edited August 12, 2020 by T-Shirt

[T-Shirt]

11 minutes ago, pogi said:

I might be confusing you for others, but I don't recall you ever giving this virus the respect it deserves either. If you think I am a fear monger, then you must not understand me or this virus. I am no fear-monger. 

 

You should go back and read my posts then.  

[pogi]

37 minutes ago, T-Shirt said:

I never said this. 

The following sure sounds like, "no valid reason to fear" to me.  This is exactly what you said:

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...I can read statistics and they just don't seem to support all of the fears that are spread.

 

37 minutes ago, T-Shirt said:

Are you reading my posts?  CDC statistics are in groups.  I was covering the groups that represented the vast majority of teachers.  81% of teachers are under 55.  I specifically said that protecting those who are older and  at risks is very important.  If school age kids live in a home with someone over 60 or high risk, they should probably consider other options.  Should we close schools to protect one or two percent when there are other options for them?

Young teachers are a concern, but low on the list of my concerns about schools opening.  "Other options" aren't going to do much when millions of kids are infecting the community. 

37 minutes ago, T-Shirt said:

However, of those deaths, almost 50% are form nursing homes and care centers.  Those are not affected by schools being open. 

It's much closer to 40%.  But this line of thinking is precisely the complacency that I am fighting to disrupt.  You don't think that opening schools is going to dramatically increase community spread?  You don't think that increased community spread will make it's way into nursing homes via family members, visitors, janitors, CNA's, nurses, doctors, cooks, etc.?  Do you think that taking temperature first is going to keep Covid out? 

Not to mention the other 60%.

37 minutes ago, T-Shirt said:

I really am kind of tired of arguing over this.  All I am saying is that the spreading of excessive fear is happening all over the place, especially in the media.  It is not helpful.

Don't confuse me with the media.  My post that you are complaining about had a point, and when taken in context of the poster I was responding to, it is easy to see that it was not fear mongering.  Not to mention, I have been consistently posting for 31 pages now, but you seem to fit me into the square of one post I made, which was taken out of context. 

Edited August 12, 2020 by pogi

[T-Shirt]

54 minutes ago, pogi said:

The following sure sounds like, "no valid reason to fear" to me.  This is exactly what you said:

In context, I was referring to the excessive fear being spread.  I stand by that.

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Young teachers are a concern, but low on the list of my concerns about schools opening.  "Other options" aren't going to do much when millions of kids are infecting the community. 

They can only infect the community if the parents allow them to go out and interact with their neighborhoods.  We don't do that now, why would that change if schools are open?  If families are following guidelines, it is possible they could become infected by their child, but they should continue to wear masks and social distance and everything as it is now.  They should not infect others unless they get careless.

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It's much closer to 40%.  But this line of thinking is precisely the complacency that I am fighting to disrupt.

It's not complacency, it is a fact.  Someone could be complacent about that fact, but I had not advocated for that.  In fact I have repeatedly stressed the necessity of caring for this population.

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  You don't think that opening schools is going to dramatically increase community spread?  You don't think that increased community spread will make it's way into nursing homes via family members, visitors, janitors, CNA's, nurses, doctors, cooks, etc.?  Do you think that taking temperature first is going to keep Covid out? 

I recognize this as a possibility, but once again, as I have stressed over and over ( you seem to miss it each time) it is very important to continue to follow guidelines and take extra precautions to care for the vulnerable.  If this is done, schools opening should have no appreciable affect on nursing homes.  In our State, visitors aren't even allowed in nursing homes.

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Not to mention the other 60%.

Don't confuse me with the media.  My post that you are complaining about had a point, and when taken in context of the poster I was responding to, it is easy to see that it was not fear mongering. 

 

Give people real data and real information and skip the editorializing.  People are pretty smart and quite willing to comply with guidelines as long as they are treated like adults.  When people are treated like children and governments and media try to scare the crap out of them with over the top and highly exaggerated, "news", it never goes well, It only creates distrust and confusion.  The people who don't comply aren't going to comply no matter what you do.  They are an unfortunate problem, but whether schools are open or not does not change their behavior.  Other country's have opened their schools without any significant increase in cases and deaths.  Stop treating people like children and you will be surprised how much more compliance you get.

I will probably not respond anymore, I am tired of it and you have a tendency to twist what I say and attribute statements and attitudes to me that are not mine.  You and I agree on more than we don't.  I sincerely wish you all the best and pray for your safety. 

Edited August 12, 2020 by T-Shirt

[pogi]

52 minutes ago, T-Shirt said:

It's not complacency, it is a fact. 

It absolutely is not a fact.  I was referring to the bold comment:

However, of those deaths, almost 50% are form nursing homes and care centers.  Those are not affected by schools being open. 

This is wishful thinking, not fact, based on a lack of understanding of how the virus spreads in the community and into nursing homes etc. 

52 minutes ago, T-Shirt said:

I recognize this as a possibility, but once again, as I have stressed over and over ( you seem to miss it each time) it is very important to continue to follow guidelines and take extra precautions to care for the vulnerable.  If this is done, schools opening should have no appreciable affect on nursing homes.  In our State, visitors aren't even allowed in nursing homes.

I recognize you stressing that we should protect vulnerable populations and take precautions, but you don't see what is happening in those nursing homes and how the virus gets in - despite every precaution.  I do.  Every. Single. Day.  I intimately know and understand the tentacles of Covid and how it spreads. Your exaggerated faith in these preventive measures and precautions lead to a false sense of security.  Of course they help, but nursing homes are not Covid proof in the face of increased community spread, despite all the precautions we take.  Your comments are wishful thinking and naive to the facts.  It will get in.  And opening schools absolutely will have an "appreciable affect" on nursing homes (which represent around 40% of deaths).  The other 60% of deaths are in the community.  There will be an "appreciable affect" there too.  Preventive measures help, but you exaggerate their effects to the point of suggesting that nursing homes "are not affected by schools being open".  This is the opposite of fear-mongering, and is perhaps even more dangerous. 

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I will probably not respond anymore, I am tired of it and you have a tendency to twist what I say and attribute statements and attitudes to me that are not mine.

I feel the same about you.

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  I sincerely wish you all the best and pray for your safety. 

Thank you.  I wish the best for you and your's too.  

Edited August 13, 2020 by pogi

[strappinglad]

42 minutes ago, pogi said:

what is happening in those nursing homes and how the virus gets in - despite every precaution.  I do.  Every. Single. Day.  I intimately know and understand the tentacles of Covid and how it spreads. 

So, no matter what we do , covid (nature) will find a way. All the precautions are wishful thinking. In essence we are straightening deck chairs on the Titanic. But , in the meantime , let's shut down the schools and the economy just in case it will make a slight difference in the timeline of the inevitable. 

[pogi]

8 minutes ago, strappinglad said:

So, no matter what we do , covid (nature) will find a way. All the precautions are wishful thinking. In essence we are straightening deck chairs on the Titanic. But , in the meantime , let's shut down the schools and the economy just in case it will make a slight difference in the timeline of the inevitable. 

Read what I said again (in context this time).  When did I say we should shut down the schools or that preventive measures won’t help?

Edited August 13, 2020 by pogi

[webbles]

In my search on sensitivity and specificity of the covid-19 tests, I found a press release from Co-Diagnostics, Inc (http://codiagnostics.com/co-diagnostics-releases-covid19-sensitivity-and-specificity-data/) that says that they have a 100% sensitivity and 100% specificity.  They are the testing agency behind TestUtah, TestIowa, and TestNebraska.  Shortly after that press release, Iowa announced their own evaluations of Co-Diagnostics and found it to be 95% sensitive and 99.7% specific (https://www.desmoinesregister.com/story/news/health/2020/05/14/iowa-governor-kim-reynolds-coronavirus-covid-19-briefing-thursday-data-maps-cases-unemployment/3106767001/).

A sensitivity and specificity of 100% would be really awesome but since Iowa found the number slightly lower, I'm going to use Iowa's results.

Iowa shows about 10% of the tested population have a positive result (https://coronavirus.iowa.gov/pages/case-counts).  Using that as the infection rate and using Iowa's sensitivity and specificity, the Positive Predictive Value is 97.23% and the Negative Predictive Value is 99.44%.  The chance that a random tested Iowan has a false positive is less than 2.77%.  The chance that it is a false negative is less than .56%.  If you assume that the infection rate is higher than 10%, the numbers get even better.

[The Nehor]

22 hours ago, webbles said:

Here's an example of dealing with mammograms: https://www.sciencefriday.com/articles/math-mammograms/

The article explains the math in a slightly graphical manner but the answer to the above is C.  Only one woman with a positive mammogram would actually have breast cancer if the three statements are true.  And this is with a test that has a 90% sensitivity and 91% specificity.

I was going to say it was a trick question because it did not say how many false positives. I have been debunking too much misleading news lately.  

[The Nehor]

8 hours ago, bsjkki said:

Interesting on school not closing in Sweden and what happened. https://mobile.reuters.com/article/amp/idUSKCN24G2IS?__twitter_impression=true

 

“The report, which has not been peer-reviewed, found that during the period of February 24 to June 14, there were 1,124 confirmed cases of COVID-19 among children in Sweden, around 0.05% of the total number of children aged 1-19. 

Finland recorded 584 cases in the same period, also equivalent to around 0.05%. 

"In conclusion, (the) closure or not of schools had no measurable direct impact on the number of laboratory confirmed cases in school-aged children in Finland or Sweden," the agencies said in the report, published last week.

The report showed that severe cases of COVID-19 were very rare among both Swedish and Finnish children aged 1 to 19, with no deaths reported. A comparison of the incidence of COVID-19 in different professions suggested no increased risk for teachers.”

Very dubious. Finland has a higher capita testing rate and testing of children is low in any case. I cannot find comparative testing rates of children in both nations. Since children are less likely to be tested (since they often have no symptoms or mild symptoms) checking their positive test rate is not that illuminating. Most of the deaths are going to be adults and older people who got the virus with a child as a carrier and we do see more total cases and deaths in Sweden. It also ignores the much more clear link between schools being open and Infection rates we got from Israel. I would like to see more comparisons. If this is generally true why not include Norway or Denmark? That it comes from the Swedish national medical agency makes this cherry picking even more suspicious. I do see it has gotten all over. Another rumor makes it around the globe before the truth gets out of bed.

[The Nehor]

4 hours ago, rodheadlee said:

Too bad they don't announce abortion deaths like they do covid-19 deaths.

So we could ignore them as well?

Abortion peaked in about 1990 in both absolute and per capita numbers. We actually passed the first wave on that and a second is unlikely.

[The Nehor]

All the talk about feat-mongering seems silly to me. I think most people in the US are not afraid enough.

[Calm]

4 hours ago, T-Shirt said:

However, of those deaths, almost 50% are form nursing homes and care centers.  Those are not affected by schools being open.

They will most definitely be from what I have seen.  Much of the staff in my mother's' and other assisted living centers are young college aged kids.  When the center had residents who got Covid, there is a good chance it was through a staff member as several of them had it as well and were asymptomatic..  One college age staff member quit when Covid showed up because she had a diabetic roommate.  Several others were told by their parents they had to quit because the parents were afraid the residents would give it to the staff.

And the connection to school isn't just college age as older staff members often have school aged kids or grandkids, who can pass the infection on to their parents/grandparents they live with, who then take it to work.

Edited August 13, 2020 by Calm

[Calm]

1 hour ago, The Nehor said:

also ignores the much more clear link between schools being open and Infection rates we got from Israel.

You have to look at multiple examples and not take single cases.  If one used my mother's assisted living center, one would conclude there was a low risk for all age groups as percentage of staff that got it was about the same as the residents and no one had more than a mild case with most asymptomatic.  I think there were about 30 who tested positive by the end of the four/five week quarantine.  However, the great majority of deaths if I look at the news lists older care center residents as victims, the complete opposite of the case in my mom's place.

Stats are such there will likely always be outlier cases just due to percentages.  I can get a great FB post that explains this very well, but bottom line means it is wise to look at multiple studies/cases and go with the majority.

[bsjkki]

From the Frontlines. Intersting story from the doctors in the hospitals in Houston. (masks in this quote are N95)

"“If you wear a mask, maintain six feet, and wash your hands, we’re going to be okay,” Dr. Glenn Davis, an internist and pediatrician who runs a private clinic on the north side of Houston, stated. “It really is that simple. Basically, I bathe in coronavirus all day. I’m bathing in coronavirus, and I haven’t gotten it yet, and neither has my family. Because I wear my mask, I maintain six feet, and I wash my hands.” Davis added that “90 percent” of the patients he has seen contracted the virus because they were not careful. “I could pretty much tell you where they got it,” he said.

Dr. Reynolds Delgado, a cardiologist at Baylor St. Luke’s Medical Center who handles “the really bad COVIDs,” said he has closely examined patients “multiple hundreds of times,” and has been perfectly fine with an N95 mask. He added that none of St. Luke’s six infectious-disease doctors have gotten sick, despite examining “every single COVID case” since the pandemic began — an anecdote the hospital confirmed as accurate.

“The masks really do work. That’s the point of all that,” he stated.

https://www.nationalreview.com/2020/08/coronavirus-pandemic-houston-hospitals-defy-doomsday-predictions/