Co-vid 19: What Is and Isn't Known, Discussion and Debate

[bsjkki]

1 minute ago, pogi said:

I haven't really hear anybody push for "long-term" lock downs.  I think everyone knows that is not sustainable.  Targeted short-term lock downs of specific businesses, schools, or churches should not be off the table though. 

I agree. No one should be shocked if certain schools close again due to an outbreak. Target things as needed.

[pogi]

12 minutes ago, webbles said:

But halving the number of tests should increase the percentage of positive tests.  I would assume that those who obviously sick would still be tested.

From my experience, your assumption is not accurate.  I will often see 1 tested positive case in a household with 6 others who later became symptomatic (considered probable cases).  They all just assume the have it (and why not?) because of their close contact with the index case, and don't test.  When this happens, percentage of positive tests will not increase. 

[bsjkki]

CDC has a tracking tool by county for the entire US. https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/cases-updates/county-map.html

[pogi]

10 minutes ago, ksfisher said:

How long would you guess a short-term lock down would need to last to be effective?

I guess it depends on what we are talking about specifically.  In some cases with small businesses, a week-long lock down might be good enough to identify and isolate/quarantine positive cases and their contacts, clean the facility, and assess and alter their practices to prevent future outbreaks. 

If we are talking about community wide lock-downs in a major outbreak city, then we probably need solid lock downs for around 4 weeks to have any impact. 

[bsjkki]

New CDC mental health survey and covid. The 18-24 year olds are not doing well. https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.insider.com/cdc-11-percent-us-adults-seriously-considered-suicide-in-june-2020-8%3famp?espv=1

 

• 11% of American adults reported seriously considering suicide in June, about double the percentage who did so last summer, a new CDC report finds. 
• Rates of suicide ideation were highest among 18- to 24-year-olds (25%) and unpaid caregivers for adults (30%). 
• Summary
  What is already known about this topic?
  Communities have faced mental health challenges related to COVID-19–associated morbidity, mortality, and mitigation activities.
  What is added by this report?
  During June 24–30, 2020, U.S. adults reported considerably elevated adverse mental health conditions associated with COVID-19. Younger adults, racial/ethnic minorities, essential workers, and unpaid adult caregivers reported having experi- enced disproportionately worse mental health outcomes, increased substance use, and elevated suicidal ideation.
  What are the implications for public health practice?
  The public health response to the COVID-19 pandemic should increase intervention and prevention efforts to address associated mental health conditions. Community-level efforts, including health communication strategies, should prioritize young adults, racial/ethnic minorities, essential workers, and unpaid adult caregivers.

• https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/69/wr/pdfs/mm6932a1-H.pdf

Edited August 13, 2020 by bsjkki

[webbles]

2 minutes ago, pogi said:

From my experience, your assumption is not accurate.  I will often see 1 tested positive case in a household with 6 others who later became symptomatic (considered probable cases).  They all just assume the have it (and why not?) because of their close contact with the index case, and don't test.  When this happens, percentage of positive tests will not increase. 

A month ago, would people in that situation get tested?  I always assumed that probable cases were not encouraged to get tested.  I think they did that at the beginning because of test supplies but I also thought they just continued with the policy since there really isn't a point in testing probable cases.

[pogi]

7 minutes ago, webbles said:

A month ago, would people in that situation get tested?  I always assumed that probable cases were not encouraged to get tested.  I think they did that at the beginning because of test supplies but I also thought they just continued with the policy since there really isn't a point in testing probable cases.

In Salt Lake County, we always encourage probable cases to get tested.  I can only speak from my own experience, but it feels like probable cases are testing less then they used to.  There were always some that would refuse to test, but it feels like people are much more 'meh" about it now.  I don't blame them either, but it makes it hard to report accurate numbers. 

[T-Shirt]

12 hours ago, pogi said:

However, I never said we should shut down the schools and the economy, or that our efforts are pointless and will have no impact.  I am validating the fears and concerns that people have and dismissing the false assurance that it will have “no appreciable effect” in the most vulnerable populations.  We need to walk with our eyes open.

Knock it off, Pogi!  If you're going to quote me, do so accurately.  You continue to spread misinformation and attribute things to me I have never said.  This is what I said:

Quote

I recognize this as a possibility, but once again, as I have stressed over and over ( you seem to miss it each time) it is very important to continue to follow guidelines and take extra precautions to care for the vulnerable.  If this is done, schools opening should have no appreciable affect on nursing homes.  In our State, visitors aren't even allowed in nursing homes.

First of all, I made no assurance in this statement, false or otherwise.  Second, the statement had a very important component and a very big , "if" to it, which you completely ignored.  Thirdly I mentioned other countries opening schools without significant increases in deaths or cases.  Two of these countries are Sweden and Finland.  Do you know where Sweden and Finland are?  To quote someone on this board,  they're not on Mars!  It appears, with you, statistics only count if they are bad, scary or don't come from a conservative source.  I don't care if you like me and I don't care if you don't agree with me, but please have enough integrity to be honest about how you represent the things I have said.

Edited August 13, 2020 by T-Shirt

[ksfisher]

30 minutes ago, T-Shirt said:

Knock it off, Pogi!  If you're going to quote me, do so accurately.  You continue to spread misinformation and attribute things to me I have never said.  This is what I said:

First of all, I made no assurance in this statement, false or otherwise.  Second, the statement had a very important component and a very big , "if" to it, which you completely ignored.  Thirdly I mentioned other countries opening schools without significant increases in deaths or cases.  Two of these countries are Sweden and Finland.  Do you know where Sweden and Finland are?  To quote someone on this board,  they're not on Mars!  It appears, with you, statistics only count if they are bad, scary or don't come from a conservative source.  I don't care if you like me and I don't care if you don't agree with me, but please have enough integrity to be honest about how you represent the things I have said.

Interesting you mention Sweden.  Here's a month old article, but I think what they're saying is still applicable

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/07/17/how-sweden-fought-coronavirus-and-what-went-wrong.html

One of the places the article says things didn't go well was in schools:

"Sweden made a relatively unique decision in keeping schools open, particularly for younger children. Many countries, including the United States, are weighing opening up schools after the summer holiday -- and are eager to learn from countries like Sweden. 

But epidemiologists say there wasn’t sufficient data collected about infections among school-age children. 

“It’s really frustrating that we haven’t been able to answer some relatively basic questions on transmission and the role of different interventions,” Carina King, an infectious disease epidemiologist at the Karolinska Institute told Science Magazine. King shared that her team had been hampered by “the lack of funding, time, and previous experience of conducting this sort of research.”

 

And according to this site Sweden is 5th in the world in deaths per million, ahead of the US:

https://www.statista.com/statistics/1104709/coronavirus-deaths-worldwide-per-million-inhabitants/

 

People keep holding up Sweden as an example of what to do.  I love the country, served my mission there, but the numbers don't seem to put their response in a positive light.

Edited August 13, 2020 by ksfisher

[pogi]

58 minutes ago, T-Shirt said:

Knock it off, Pogi!  If you're going to quote me, do so accurately.  You continue to spread misinformation and attribute things to me I have never said.  This is what I said:

You knock it off.  If you don't want me to quote you, don't speak.  I have not mis-attributed anything to you.  

I know what you said.  I quoted you directly.  Here it is, once again:

19 hours ago, pogi said:

It absolutely is not a fact.  I was referring to the bold comment:

However, of those deaths, almost 50% are form nursing homes and care centers.  Those are not affected by schools being open. 

 

That sure as heck sounds like an "assurance" to me.  It is wrong of you to accuse me of spreading misinformation about things you have said, because if that was not intended as an "assurance" then you are a terrible communicator and it is your fault that you were misunderstood.   You need to learn to speak more clearly and be much more thoughtful and careful in your word choices if this was not intended as an assurance and assertion of "fact".

You later gave the same assurance:

Quote

 If this is done, schools opening should have no appreciable affect on nursing homes. 

This is both an assurance and false, making it a "false assurance".  So don't tell me to knock it off when it came straight from your mouth. 

58 minutes ago, T-Shirt said:

First of all, I made no assurance in this statement, false or otherwise.  

Yes, you did.  

58 minutes ago, T-Shirt said:

Second, the statement had a very important component and a very big , "if" to it, which you completely ignored.  

The big "if" makes it no less false and no less of an assurance.  And yes, I absolutely did address your really big "if".  I went as far as to say "I recognize" it, to make sure you understood that I am not ignoring it:

Quote

I recognize you stressing that we should protect vulnerable populations and take precautions, but you don't see what is happening in those nursing homes and how the virus gets in - despite every precaution.  I do.  Every. Single. Day.  I intimately know and understand the tentacles of Covid and how it spreads. Your exaggerated faith in these preventive measures and precautions lead to a false sense of security.  Of course they help, but nursing homes are not Covid proof in the face of increased community spread, despite all the precautions we take.  Your comments are wishful thinking and naive to the facts.  It will get in.  And opening schools absolutely will have an "appreciable affect" on nursing homes (which represent around 40% of deaths).  The other 60% of deaths are in the community.  There will be an "appreciable affect" there too.  Preventive measures help, but you exaggerate their effects to the point of suggesting that nursing homes "are not affected by schools being open".  This is the opposite of fear-mongering, and is perhaps even more dangerous. 

Did I "completely ignore" it as you claim, or are you the one who is actually spreading false statements about me?

58 minutes ago, T-Shirt said:

Thirdly I mentioned other countries opening schools without significant increases in deaths or cases.  Two of these countries are Sweden and Finland. 

Sweden and Finland were not mentioned by you, and Nehor already addressed that.  You showed me absolutely no data to back up your claims, you just made a blank assertion. 

You are either just trolling me or you truly are a terrible communicator, either way, you should probably bow out like you said you would. 

Edited August 13, 2020 by pogi

[T-Shirt]

49 minutes ago, pogi said:

You knock it off.  If you don't want me to quote you, don't speak.  I have not mis-attributed anything to you.  

I know what you said.  I quoted you directly.  Here it is, once again:

That sure as heck sounds like an "assurance" to me.  It is wrong of you to accuse me of spreading misinformation about things you have said, because if that was not intended as an "assurance" then you are a terrible communicator and it is your fault that you were misunderstood.   You need to learn to speak more clearly and be much more thoughtful and careful in your word choices if this was not intended as an assurance and assertion of "fact".

You later gave the same assurance:

This is both an assurance and false, making it a "false assurance".  So don't tell me to knock it off when it came straight from your mouth. 

Yes, you did.  

The big "if" makes it no less false and no less of an assurance.  And yes, I absolutely did address your really big "if".  I went as far as to say "I recognize" it, to make sure you understood that I am not ignoring it:

Did I "completely ignore" it as you claim, or are you the one who is actually spreading false statements about me?

Sweden and Finland were not mentioned by you, and Nehor already addressed that.  You showed me absolutely no data to back up your claims, you just made a blank assertion. 

You are either just trolling me or you truly are a terrible communicator, either way, you should probably bow out like you said you would. 

I told you before, I was done responding to you and then you come on and tell more untruths.  I am done now, enjoy spreading your misinformation and untruths.  I have lost all respect for you.

Edited August 13, 2020 by T-Shirt

[Calm]

Can we drop the personal accusations and just leave it at “this statement is inaccurate based on _____”, please.

It is easy to make overstatement assuming others know what assumptions we are making in our head that turn the overstatement into a conditional or qualified conclusion, try not to take someone reacting to that as intentional misrepresentation, please.  Instead offer clarification where you believe you have been misread or misrepresented.

 

[pogi]

14 minutes ago, T-Shirt said:

and then you come on and tell more lies.  

You attack me over, and over, and over again. I am visibly angry about what I see as repeated empty attacks, but now I am lying?  You are not even going to try and clarify for me where and how I misunderstood what appeared to me to be a clear assertion, instead you are just going to call me a liar (without clarifying that either)?  CFR about the lying or retract

Edited August 13, 2020 by pogi

[Calm]

8 minutes ago, T-Shirt said:

I told you before, I was done responding to you and then you come on and tell more lies.  I am done now, enjoy spreading your misinformation and lies.  I have lost all respect for you.

This is going too far, T-Shirt.  Please delete this post.  I am reading both of your comments and can see how honest misunderstandings are taking place.

——-

I think it best in the future if we stay away from discussions about who is and isn’t fear mongering  or being dismissive of real danger even though that is an important subject as it too easily morphs into mindreading others’ intentions, etc. 

If necessary, please take discussions about fear monger if/head in the sand and the impact that will have to another thread. 
 

——

Pogi and T-Shirt, maybe best to step away for a bit if either of you feel the need to defend yourself more. I think both of you have made clear where you think the other went wrong, more discussion is likely just to lead to more frustration and possibly confuse things as misunderstandings pile up on other misunderstandings.

Edited August 13, 2020 by Calm

[T-Shirt]

2 minutes ago, pogi said:

CFR or retract

I have already showed, numerous times, where you have misrepresented my posts and have even attributed to me posts to me that were not mine.  You continue to do it and I am not the only one you do it to.  If someone posts something you disagree with, you bully them.  You just called me a liar and then edited it out.  I am done with you, you are a terrible mind reader, and a bully.  I will not retract the truth.

[T-Shirt]

3 minutes ago, Calm said:

This is going too far, T-Shirt.  Please delete this post.  I am reading both of your comments and can see how honest misunderstandings are taking place.

The thing that prompted this was that Pogi called me a liar.  He edited it out later.

[Ahab]

8 minutes ago, pogi said:

You are not even going to try and clarify for me where and how I misunderstood what appeared to me to be a clear assertion, instead you are just going to call me a liar (without clarifying that either)?  CFR about the lying or retract

Apparently not.  Less trouble and less hassle to just do what T-shirt did.  Your words have been evaluated and found wanting.  10 whips with a wet noodle await you.  Don't even try to get out of it.  Just take your licking and then go merrily on your way rejoicing.

[pogi]

14 minutes ago, T-Shirt said:

The thing that prompted this was that Pogi called me a liar.  He edited it out later.

It looked like you were saying that you brought up Sweden and Finland.  I went back and didn't see that anywhere in your posts.  After re-reading, I noticed one vague post about schools opening elsewhere without affect, but there was no link or statistics (which you claimed I dismissed) or data associated with the assertion.  I edited it out. Now you should do the same. 

Edited August 13, 2020 by pogi

[T-Shirt]

18 minutes ago, pogi said:

You attack me over, and over, and over again. I am visibly angry about what I see as repeated empty attacks, but now I am lying?  You are not even going to try and clarify for me where and how I misunderstood what appeared to me to be a clear assertion, instead you are just going to call me a liar (without clarifying that either)?  CFR about the lying or retract

Show me one time I attacked you.  If you call, asking you to stop misrepresenting me, attacking, then I am guilty.  You have been a bully since the beginning of this thread, before I ever joined in.

[T-Shirt]

6 minutes ago, pogi said:

It looked like you were saying that you brought up Sweden and Finland.  I went back and didn't see that anywhere in your posts.  After re-reading, I noticed one vague post about schools opening elsewhere without affect, but there was no link or statistics (which you claimed I dismissed) or data associated with the assertion.  I edited it out. Now you should do the same. 

I said, "other countries".  The follow up posts was simply to mention two of them.  That changes nothing.

[Ahab]

8 minutes ago, T-Shirt said:

I have already showed, numerous times, where you have misrepresented my posts and have even attributed to me posts to me that were not mine.  You continue to do it and I am not the only one you do it to. If someone posts something you disagree with, you bully them.

Speaking of what is and isn't known, which is part of the title of this thread, I think sometimes you think people are trying to repeat what you said rather than make a comment regarding what you said.  The fact that we quote you sometimes before we say something doesn't mean we're going to just say what you said in some other words.  Your whole "I never said that" when referring to what we say seems to indicate that you don't know where to draw the line between what we say and what you say. We're not only going to just repeat whatever you say.  We are also here to share our own thoughts with whoever wants to read them.

[Calm]

8 minutes ago, T-Shirt said:

The thing that prompted this was that Pogi called me a liar.  He edited it out later.

Then please edit yours now.  
 

Pogi, if you have left any accusations of dishonesty, please remove them. 
 

I understand that both of you are highly frustrated and possibly angered by misrepresentations of your comments and it may seem impossible that these could be unintentional, but my experience with communication is such misunderstandings of comments leading to unintentional misrepresentations is all too common. Based on past posts, I see both of you as honorable individuals who would not intentionally try to make someone else look bad or misinformed when you know they are not just to make yourself look better. 
 

This is a very difficult subject to discuss, but everyone here is intelligent and in the past has shown the ability to self control, so I don’t think it is asking too much to have the two of you just step back and assume all that needed to be said on the subject has been said and move on after removing the more offensive personal stuff, specifically accusations of dishonesty.

[T-Shirt]

3 minutes ago, Ahab said:

Speaking of what is and isn't known, which is part of the title of this thread, I think sometimes you think people are trying to repeat what you said rather than make a comment regarding what you said.  The fact that we quote you sometimes before we say something doesn't mean we're going to just say what you said in some other words.  Your whole "I never said that" when referring to what we say seems to indicate that you don't know where to draw the line between what we say and what you say. We're not only going to just repeat whatever you say.  We are also here to share our own thoughts with whoever wants to read them.

Thanks for the lesson.  I asked you to remove a cheap shot aimed at me earlier but you didn't do it.

Edited August 13, 2020 by T-Shirt

[pogi]

20 minutes ago, T-Shirt said:

Show me one time I attacked you.  If you call, asking you to stop misrepresenting me, attacking, then I am guilty.  You have been a bully since the beginning of this thread, before I ever joined in.

"Fear monger" comes to mind.  Even after clarifying several times that it is not my intent to spread fear, you kept insisting it was my intent.   "Liar".  You said, "please have enough integrity to be honest about how you represent the things I have said", which also implies lying.  You patronize me with, "Are you reading my posts?"  You attacked me for posting "misinformation" about New York, when I didn't.  Shall I continue?  Oh, one more, "bully".

Edited August 13, 2020 by pogi

[Calm]

We are up to 33 pages, I am going to start a new thread so as to keep more up to date info easier to access.

I may ask for this thread to be closed (I will wait a bit longer to see if the personal stuff gets deleted)  and then wait a day or two (think I will ask this be closed today or tomorrow and then start the new one on Sunday or Monday) to give everyone a breather as sometimes we all need a break.  Please remember if you come across interesting or useful info once this gets locked so we don’t miss out.

Edited August 13, 2020 by Calm