bluebell Posted August 13, 2020 Posted August 13, 2020 57 minutes ago, bsjkki said: From the Frontlines. Intersting story from the doctors in the hospitals in Houston. (masks in this quote are N95) "“If you wear a mask, maintain six feet, and wash your hands, we’re going to be okay,” Dr. Glenn Davis, an internist and pediatrician who runs a private clinic on the north side of Houston, stated. “It really is that simple. Basically, I bathe in coronavirus all day. I’m bathing in coronavirus, and I haven’t gotten it yet, and neither has my family. Because I wear my mask, I maintain six feet, and I wash my hands.” Davis added that “90 percent” of the patients he has seen contracted the virus because they were not careful. “I could pretty much tell you where they got it,” he said. Dr. Reynolds Delgado, a cardiologist at Baylor St. Luke’s Medical Center who handles “the really bad COVIDs,” said he has closely examined patients “multiple hundreds of times,” and has been perfectly fine with an N95 mask. He added that none of St. Luke’s six infectious-disease doctors have gotten sick, despite examining “every single COVID case” since the pandemic began — an anecdote the hospital confirmed as accurate. “The masks really do work. That’s the point of all that,” he stated. https://www.nationalreview.com/2020/08/coronavirus-pandemic-houston-hospitals-defy-doomsday-predictions/ What about non-N95 masks I wonder?
strappinglad Posted August 13, 2020 Posted August 13, 2020 4 hours ago, pogi said: I recognize you stressing that we should protect vulnerable populations and take precautions, but you don't see what is happening in those nursing homes and how the virus gets in - despite every precaution. I do. Every. Single. Day. I intimately know and understand the tentacles of Covid and how it spreads. Your exaggerated faith in these preventive measures and precautions lead to a false sense of security. Of course they help, but nursing homes are not Covid proof in the face of increased community spread, despite all the precautions we take. Your comments are wishful thinking and naive to the facts. It will get in. And opening schools absolutely will have an "appreciable affect" on nursing homes (which represent around 40% of deaths). The other 60% of deaths are in the community. There will be an "appreciable affect" there too. Preventive measures help, but you exaggerate their effects to the point of suggesting that nursing homes "are not affected by schools being open". This is the opposite of fear-mongering, and is perhaps even more dangerous. I quoted you before and here is the context. Seems to me you are warning the opening of schools will have a serious effect on covid spread,no? You say that "despite all precautions " there will be community spread.
bsjkki Posted August 13, 2020 Posted August 13, 2020 24 minutes ago, bluebell said: What about non-N95 masks I wonder? I, personally, think masks work but are not perfect. N95 are much more protective but not feasible for the entire population. I find this article very informative about aerosols and transmission. https://www.uchealth.org/today/covid-19-and-airborne-aerosols-what-you-need-to-know/ Avoid crowds indoors. Wear masks. Stay at least 6 feet away from people. Open windows or use HEPA filters to refresh indoor air. Inexpensive changes can accomplish a great deal. If needed, upgrade heating, ventilation and air conditioning (HVAC) filters to what are known as MERV 13 filters in for places like commercial buildings and classrooms. Avoid indoor bars, restaurants, salons and churches that are not well ventilated or do not have air filtration systems. Instead go to places where service is offered outdoors. If you are outside, you don’t need a mask if you are not in close contact with people outside of your family, for example on an isolated mountain trail. But, if you are in closer proximity with people on a city street, you might want to wear masks. Imagine that the people you cross are smoking cigarettes. You don’t want to inhale or smell the smoke they exhale without a mask. In general, being outdoors is much safer than spending time indoors since there is almost always air flow and UV sunlight during the day destroys the virus quickly. Follow the advice of Japanese health authorities, which can be boiled down to the three Cs: avoid closed and poorly ventilated spaces, crowds and close contact. 3
pogi Posted August 13, 2020 Posted August 13, 2020 2 hours ago, strappinglad said: I quoted you before and here is the context. Seems to me you are warning the opening of schools will have a serious effect on covid spread,no?. It will have a serious effect. However, I never said we should shut down the schools and the economy, or that our efforts are pointless and will have no impact. I am validating the fears and concerns that people have and dismissing the false assurance that it will have “no appreciable effect” in the most vulnerable populations. We need to walk with our eyes open. 2 hours ago, strappinglad said: You say that "despite all precautions " there will be community spread. Do you pretend otherwise?
The Nehor Posted August 13, 2020 Posted August 13, 2020 5 hours ago, bsjkki said: From the Frontlines. Intersting story from the doctors in the hospitals in Houston. (masks in this quote are N95) "“If you wear a mask, maintain six feet, and wash your hands, we’re going to be okay,” Dr. Glenn Davis, an internist and pediatrician who runs a private clinic on the north side of Houston, stated. “It really is that simple. Basically, I bathe in coronavirus all day. I’m bathing in coronavirus, and I haven’t gotten it yet, and neither has my family. Because I wear my mask, I maintain six feet, and I wash my hands.” Davis added that “90 percent” of the patients he has seen contracted the virus because they were not careful. “I could pretty much tell you where they got it,” he said. Dr. Reynolds Delgado, a cardiologist at Baylor St. Luke’s Medical Center who handles “the really bad COVIDs,” said he has closely examined patients “multiple hundreds of times,” and has been perfectly fine with an N95 mask. He added that none of St. Luke’s six infectious-disease doctors have gotten sick, despite examining “every single COVID case” since the pandemic began — an anecdote the hospital confirmed as accurate. “The masks really do work. That’s the point of all that,” he stated. https://www.nationalreview.com/2020/08/coronavirus-pandemic-houston-hospitals-defy-doomsday-predictions/ I will believe the ICU capacity is not in danger when they start reporting the numbers again. Anecdotal reports from the National Review don’t fill me with confidence.
The Nehor Posted August 13, 2020 Posted August 13, 2020 4 hours ago, strappinglad said: I quoted you before and here is the context. Seems to me you are warning the opening of schools will have a serious effect on covid spread,no? You say that "despite all precautions " there will be community spread. Short of a much more severe lockdown than we had in the past of course there is going to continue to be community spread.
bsjkki Posted August 13, 2020 Posted August 13, 2020 5 minutes ago, The Nehor said: Short of a much more severe lockdown than we had in the past of course there is going to continue to be community spread. This, we agree on.
bsjkki Posted August 13, 2020 Posted August 13, 2020 (edited) 56 minutes ago, The Nehor said: Short of a much more severe lockdown than we had in the past of course there is going to continue to be community spread. There is going to be community spread no matter what we do. https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2020/08/new-zealand-suspects-some-failure-border-after-covid-19-returns "The cluster of new cases caught the nation by surprise. The government announced yesterday that a person in their 50s living in South Auckland first tested positive for the virus after seeking medical care. Subsequently, three other members of the family tested positive; three others did not have the virus. The index case of the group had no history of overseas travel. All close contacts of the four cases were asked to self-isolate for 14 days; casual contacts will be in self-isolation pending test results." Edited August 13, 2020 by bsjkki 3
bluebell Posted August 13, 2020 Posted August 13, 2020 10 hours ago, bsjkki said: I, personally, think masks work but are not perfect. N95 are much more protective but not feasible for the entire population. I find this article very informative about aerosols and transmission. https://www.uchealth.org/today/covid-19-and-airborne-aerosols-what-you-need-to-know/ Avoid crowds indoors. Wear masks. Stay at least 6 feet away from people. Open windows or use HEPA filters to refresh indoor air. Inexpensive changes can accomplish a great deal. If needed, upgrade heating, ventilation and air conditioning (HVAC) filters to what are known as MERV 13 filters in for places like commercial buildings and classrooms. Avoid indoor bars, restaurants, salons and churches that are not well ventilated or do not have air filtration systems. Instead go to places where service is offered outdoors. If you are outside, you don’t need a mask if you are not in close contact with people outside of your family, for example on an isolated mountain trail. But, if you are in closer proximity with people on a city street, you might want to wear masks. Imagine that the people you cross are smoking cigarettes. You don’t want to inhale or smell the smoke they exhale without a mask. In general, being outdoors is much safer than spending time indoors since there is almost always air flow and UV sunlight during the day destroys the virus quickly. Follow the advice of Japanese health authorities, which can be boiled down to the three Cs: avoid closed and poorly ventilated spaces, crowds and close contact. I agree. I just wonder why he didn't address how the kind of mask he is wearing, most people aren't. Especially considering the recent findings that fleece masks/neck gators actually spread more droplets than wearing no mask at all, because of the way the droplets divide and spread when they are breathed out of that specific kind of fabric. @pogi, I keep seeing memes and things that say that N95 masks filter the air coming in but do not filter the outgoing air, so that the person wearing it is protected but, if the person is infected, there is no protection for anyone around him. Is that true? I've tried looking it up but couldn't find anything. Thanks! 1
pogi Posted August 13, 2020 Posted August 13, 2020 11 minutes ago, bluebell said: I agree. I just wonder why he didn't address how the kind of mask he is wearing, most people aren't. Especially considering the recent findings that fleece masks/neck gators actually spread more droplets than wearing no mask at all, because of the way the droplets divide and spread when they are breathed out of that specific kind of fabric. @pogi, I keep seeing memes and things that say that N95 masks filter the air coming in but do not filter the outgoing air, so that the person wearing it is protected but, if the person is infected, there is no protection for anyone around him. Is that true? I've tried looking it up but couldn't find anything. Thanks! That is only true for masks that have vents on them (N95 or not), like the ones below. The vents allow the air to pass unfiltered on exhale. I see them everywhere. There has not been very good public education about this because people don't seem to be aware. If there is no vent, then it is filtered. 3
pogi Posted August 13, 2020 Posted August 13, 2020 (edited) 6 hours ago, bsjkki said: There is going to be community spread no matter what we do. https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2020/08/new-zealand-suspects-some-failure-border-after-covid-19-returns "The cluster of new cases caught the nation by surprise. The government announced yesterday that a person in their 50s living in South Auckland first tested positive for the virus after seeking medical care. Subsequently, three other members of the family tested positive; three others did not have the virus. The index case of the group had no history of overseas travel. All close contacts of the four cases were asked to self-isolate for 14 days; casual contacts will be in self-isolation pending test results." This is true for the US, but not for New Zealand. Eliminating community spread is not beyond reach for them. The US is definitely past the point of no return. We fumbled. We can mitigate the spread at this point, but we can't eliminate it in the foreseeable future. 1 documented case of community spread in 102 days in New Zealand is absolutely remarkable, and a testament to the measures they took early on. They will quickly isolate this case and quarantine contacts and eliminate community spread once again. A tiny little blip is all this is. Edited August 13, 2020 by pogi 2
bluebell Posted August 13, 2020 Posted August 13, 2020 41 minutes ago, pogi said: That is only true for masks that have vents on them (N95 or not), like the ones below. The vents allow the air to pass unfiltered on exhale. I see them everywhere. There has not been very good public education about this because people don't seem to be aware. If there is no vent, then it is filtered. That's what I was thinking. Do they make N95 masks without the vent? Thanks for confirming.
pogi Posted August 13, 2020 Posted August 13, 2020 22 minutes ago, bluebell said: That's what I was thinking. Do they make N95 masks without the vent? Thanks for confirming. Yes, they do have them without the vent. You won't see hospital staff with vents. 1
bluebell Posted August 13, 2020 Posted August 13, 2020 59 minutes ago, pogi said: This is true for the US, but not for New Zealand. Eliminating community spread is not beyond reach for them. The US is definitely past the point of no return. We fumbled. We can mitigate the spread at this point, but we can't eliminate it in the foreseeable future. 1 documented case of community spread in 102 days in New Zealand is absolutely remarkable, and a testament to the measures they took early on. They will quickly isolate this case and quarantine contacts and eliminate community spread once again. A tiny little blip is all this is. It's interesting that they have no idea where the person got it from.
pogi Posted August 13, 2020 Posted August 13, 2020 (edited) 24 minutes ago, bluebell said: It's interesting that they have no idea where the person got it from. Yeah, if it was not shipped in on a food product or something, then more cases will be popping up here and there because the index case has not been identified and will likely infect others. Once other's start getting infected, they should be able to track down the common link fairly quickly and identify and isolate the index case. Not knowing where a person got infected is the classic definition of "community spread" though. Transmission with known links is not really considered community spread. Quote Sometimes a person can trace how they got the virus because they will know they have been in contact with someone who is sick. In other cases, the cause is unknown. Community spread is when someone gets the virus without any known contact with a sick person. https://www.webmd.com/lung/qa/what-is-community-spread Edited August 13, 2020 by pogi 2
bsjkki Posted August 13, 2020 Posted August 13, 2020 https://www.google.com/amp/s/amp.cnn.com/cnn/2020/08/13/asia/new-zealand-cases-coronavirus-intl-hnk/index.html More info on New Zealand. My question, once the virus is in the ‘pandemic’ stage, are long term lockdowns feasible? The virus will find a way. I’m not against the 3c’s and taking precautions but don’t we need to figure out how to open schools, businesses, and churches? I wish the indoor ventilation issues were addressed more strongly. 2
The Nehor Posted August 13, 2020 Posted August 13, 2020 I had my doubts about the drop in reported cases being authentic though I hoped it was true. I thought that the drop in cases might be due to obfuscation of data in the reporting move but I looked at the testing numbers in Texas and the number of new cases a day has dropped by around 10% in the last two weeks but the number of tests performed has dropped by more than 50%. There is a similar though less severe pattern across a lot of the South. I smell a rat....no, make that lots of rats. Of course there will be a drop in cases when you halve the number of tests. Our slow and limited testing impaired our vision in knowing what is going on. It is like we shut one eye on top of that. 2
pogi Posted August 13, 2020 Posted August 13, 2020 30 minutes ago, bsjkki said: https://www.google.com/amp/s/amp.cnn.com/cnn/2020/08/13/asia/new-zealand-cases-coronavirus-intl-hnk/index.html More info on New Zealand. My question, once the virus is in the ‘pandemic’ stage, are long term lockdowns feasible? The virus will find a way. I’m not against the 3c’s and taking precautions but don’t we need to figure out how to open schools, businesses, and churches? I wish the indoor ventilation issues were addressed more strongly. It depends on what you mean by "lock-down". Do you consider us in lock-down right now because fans are not filling sports arenas, etc.? As far as I know, churches are open, businesses are open, and schools are opening all over. There are modifications to how these all run, but they are not locked-down. Some schools may need to go on temporary lock-down for big outbreaks, but nothing long-term if we are all able to do our part in prevention.
bsjkki Posted August 13, 2020 Posted August 13, 2020 12 minutes ago, The Nehor said: I had my doubts about the drop in reported cases being authentic though I hoped it was true. I thought that the drop in cases might be due to obfuscation of data in the reporting move but I looked at the testing numbers in Texas and the number of new cases a day has dropped by around 10% in the last two weeks but the number of tests performed has dropped by more than 50%. There is a similar though less severe pattern across a lot of the South. I smell a rat....no, make that lots of rats. Of course there will be a drop in cases when you halve the number of tests. Our slow and limited testing impaired our vision in knowing what is going on. It is like we shut one eye on top of that. Couldn’t the drop in tests be due to less people feeling sick or being exposed? Did they change the state’s testing criteria? In Colorado, only symptomatic can be tested. In Iowa, anyone can get a test. What are the rules in Texas?
bsjkki Posted August 13, 2020 Posted August 13, 2020 3 minutes ago, pogi said: It depends on what you mean by "lock-down". Do you consider us in lock-down right now because fans are not filling sports arenas, etc.? As far as I know, churches are open, businesses are open, and schools are opening all over. There are modifications to how these all run, but they are not locked-down. Some schools may need to go on temporary lock-down for big outbreaks, but nothing long-term if we are all able to do our part in prevention. Yes, we are somewhat open. I think that is good. Open but with precautions. Some seem to argue we should lockdown again. I think we are past that. California is still more locked down than Colorado. It’s hard on people there.
webbles Posted August 13, 2020 Posted August 13, 2020 6 minutes ago, The Nehor said: I had my doubts about the drop in reported cases being authentic though I hoped it was true. I thought that the drop in cases might be due to obfuscation of data in the reporting move but I looked at the testing numbers in Texas and the number of new cases a day has dropped by around 10% in the last two weeks but the number of tests performed has dropped by more than 50%. There is a similar though less severe pattern across a lot of the South. I smell a rat....no, make that lots of rats. Of course there will be a drop in cases when you halve the number of tests. Our slow and limited testing impaired our vision in knowing what is going on. It is like we shut one eye on top of that. But halving the number of tests should increase the percentage of positive tests. I would assume that those who obviously sick would still be tested. In Texas, that definitely looks like it is happening. The positive test percentage has doubled since the beginning of August (https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/testing/individual-states/texas). In Utah, it doesn't look that way. The positive test percentage has hardly budged (https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/testing/individual-states/utah). A few other random samples: Mississippi hardly budged (https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/testing/individual-states/mississippi), Florida has gone down a little (https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/testing/individual-states/florida), Georgia hardly budged (https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/testing/individual-states/georgia), and Nebraska hardly budged (https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/testing/individual-states/nebraska).
pogi Posted August 13, 2020 Posted August 13, 2020 18 minutes ago, The Nehor said: I had my doubts about the drop in reported cases being authentic though I hoped it was true. I thought that the drop in cases might be due to obfuscation of data in the reporting move but I looked at the testing numbers in Texas and the number of new cases a day has dropped by around 10% in the last two weeks but the number of tests performed has dropped by more than 50%. There is a similar though less severe pattern across a lot of the South. I smell a rat....no, make that lots of rats. Of course there will be a drop in cases when you halve the number of tests. Our slow and limited testing impaired our vision in knowing what is going on. It is like we shut one eye on top of that. We are seeing the same thing in Utah. I think there is testing fatigue. I see it all the time - family contact gets infected and I encourage them to go get tested. They say "what's the point, I already know I have it?" It's hard to argue with that. Most people don't feel any civic duty to go have an uncomfortable swab shoved down their nose when they are already not feeling good, for the sole purpose of increasing reported positive cases by 1. Our numbers are definitely artificially low. Luckily, even though they are not reported, they are already in contact with the health department and on quarantine/isolation. We know who they are for the most part. 1
webbles Posted August 13, 2020 Posted August 13, 2020 I should have looked more at the Johns Hopkins site. This infographic is pretty cool: https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/testing/tracker/overview It shows you each state and the trend in new cases, cases per capita, and positive tests from last week and the week before.
pogi Posted August 13, 2020 Posted August 13, 2020 (edited) 13 minutes ago, bsjkki said: Some seem to argue we should lockdown again. I think we are past that. I haven't really heard anybody push for "long-term" lock downs. I think everyone knows that is not sustainable. Targeted short-term lock downs of specific businesses, schools, or churches should not be off the table in the face of outbreaks though. Edited August 13, 2020 by pogi
ksfisher Posted August 13, 2020 Posted August 13, 2020 1 minute ago, pogi said: Targeted short-term lock downs of specific businesses, schools, or churches should not be off the table though. How long would you guess a short-term lock down would need to last to be effective?
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