The Nehor Posted March 19, 2020 Posted March 19, 2020 3 minutes ago, rongo said: Not if it is just a phase one run-through. In terms of testing overall responsiveness to "soft" governmental demands, I'd say it's been a success . . . Your theory is based on the idea that the governmental demands are unnecessary or excessive.
rongo Posted March 19, 2020 Posted March 19, 2020 1 minute ago, The Nehor said: Your theory is based on the idea that the governmental demands are unnecessary or excessive. Yes, it is. Thing is, if nothing happens, proponents will say that the draconian measures ensured that. And opponents will say that there was never anything there. And both will have no evidence except for opinion. 1
pogi Posted March 19, 2020 Posted March 19, 2020 48 minutes ago, The Nehor said: I know but still. The news was everywhere. But risk to travelers in South America was no greater than in the US, and was considered very low at the time. No travel advisories at all. Peru closed their borders with only 24 hours notice for foreigners to evacuate the country - totally unexpected. I think that those who are stuck there deserve a little more empathy. No one saw that coming or felt any urgent need to evacuate. 3
pogi Posted March 19, 2020 Posted March 19, 2020 25 minutes ago, rongo said: Thing is, if nothing happens, proponents will say that the draconian measures ensured that. And opponents will say that there was never anything there. And both will have no evidence except for opinion. Except that we do and will have even more evidence that there was something there. All we have to do is look to Italy and others. 1
pogi Posted March 19, 2020 Posted March 19, 2020 2 hours ago, bsjkki said: https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.politico.com/amp/news/2020/03/19/coronavirus-travel-advisory-level-four-137227?espv=1 The problem is tourists who get stuck in these closed border countries. Tourists are stuck in Peru and want the State department to rescue them. It makes sense to encourage Americans to come home before borders shut down. Some missionaries may find it difficult to come home at all. ”The advisory, which appears to be unprecedented, would instruct all Americans abroad to either return to the United States or prepare to shelter in place, given the global threat of the coronavirus outbreak. Americans also would be instructed not to travel abroad.” WOW! They did it! Well...I am out of a job for a while. https://travel.state.gov/content/travel/en/traveladvisories/ea/travel-advisory-alert-global-level-4-health-advisory-issue.html Think of all the travel, airlines, and tourism industries this effects. I can't even imagine how we are not going to sink into a deep dark economic depression from all of this! The entire world economy is closing down for business. 1
bsjkki Posted March 19, 2020 Posted March 19, 2020 (edited) Yep. “ In countries where commercial departure options remain available, U.S. citizens who live in the United States should arrange for immediate return to the United States, unless they are prepared to remain abroad for an indefinite period. “ I’m sorry you’re out of a job for awhile. 😢 Hopefully this will pass quickly and we will all get the financial assistance we need to weather this worldwide event. That $100 billion might be needed. I’m so grateful for a prophet who prepares. The tithing receipts are going to tank and the expenses for the church will increase. Edited March 19, 2020 by bsjkki 2
Calm Posted March 20, 2020 Posted March 20, 2020 (edited) 7 hours ago, rongo said: ETA: If we're really terrified of spreading this virus or bringing it here, does it make sense to fly tens of thousands of missionaries home from abroad? Doesn't it make more sense to hunker down there? Depends I think on whether the concern is for people currently in the US or all its citizens. Is it really worth it for parents to be paying $500? a month so their kids can sit in an apartment and be bored? If home, they can take classes online, babysit for parents who have to leave for work or get sick, or work on home projects or do the same missionary work that is allowed on lockdown. With countries closing borders and unknown how long this will be, forced separation of children from parents may not seem that appealing to most families even if not that different from voluntary separation. Edited March 20, 2020 by Calm
Calm Posted March 20, 2020 Posted March 20, 2020 (edited) 5 hours ago, rongo said: And both will have no evidence except for opinion. Italy's 50% death rate in their ICUs is not evidence? We have evidence of how bad it can get even in a developed country, imo. Edited March 20, 2020 by Calm 2
bsjkki Posted March 20, 2020 Posted March 20, 2020 (edited) Deleted...not Verified Edited March 20, 2020 by bsjkki 1
rongo Posted March 20, 2020 Posted March 20, 2020 35 minutes ago, Calm said: Italy's 50% death rate in their ICUs is not evidence? We have evidence of how bad it can get even in a developed country, imo. Well, Italy is Europe's oldest country (low birthrate, aging populace), and almost all of the deaths have been very old people. And, smoking has declined here, but remains very prevalent in Europe. There are demographic reasons why it is worse in some areas than in others. I still maintain that after three or four weeks, proponents of draconian measures will praise them as keeping things from getting bad, and opponents will point to them as never being needed. China, Iran, and Italy are very different from the U.S., other than . . . Seattle, the Bay Area, and New York City --- all of which have high Asian immigrant populations. Those are the only real hot spots right now, and they're not even that hot.
pogi Posted March 20, 2020 Posted March 20, 2020 5 minutes ago, rongo said: I still maintain that after three or four weeks, proponents of draconian measures will praise them as keeping things from getting bad, and opponents will point to them as never being needed. China, Iran, and Italy are very different from the U.S., other than . . . Seattle, the Bay Area, and New York City --- all of which have high Asian immigrant populations. Those are the only real hot spots right now, and they're not even that hot. Are you a betting man? Are you willing to bet the lives of millions on it? I’m not. Are you suggesting that it is mostly Asians dying in Seattle and New York? Think again. Those are just the early epicenters of this virus, but it has infected every state now...let’s talk again in 1 month. Your tone will be more somber then. We are just getting started!
bsjkki Posted March 20, 2020 Posted March 20, 2020 My travel agent friend told all her clients to get out now. Come home before the flights cease. 1
rongo Posted March 20, 2020 Posted March 20, 2020 19 minutes ago, pogi said: Are you a betting man? Are you willing to bet the lives of millions on it? I’m not. I am, but it's probably a good thing that I'm not dictating policy with this. What I'm looking at looks more like particularly bad seasonal flu. https://www.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6 Are you suggesting that it is mostly Asians dying in Seattle and New York? Think again. Those are just the early epicenters of this virus, but it has infected every state now...let’s talk again in 1 month. Your tone will be more somber then. We are just getting started! I believe that most of the deaths so far have been Asian --- and a particular nursing home in Seattle. And, we keep hearing that Corona will eventually overtake the flu, but I'm not sure about that (12,000-30,000 US deaths per year, 210,000 - 370,000 cases per year). What was Italy's flu death rate in years past?
Calm Posted March 20, 2020 Posted March 20, 2020 37 minutes ago, rongo said: almost all of the deaths have been very old people. Which would indicate our very old people are at high risk. That's a lot of people. Smoking could be a factor. If it is, hopefully this gets more people off it for some longterm beneficial results from all of this.
Calm Posted March 20, 2020 Posted March 20, 2020 4 minutes ago, rongo said: What was Italy's flu death rate in years past? I heard typical death rate in their ICUs was around 15% in contrast to the current 50%. Even if one assumes some of that 50% is due to less available medical care, it seems likely to be higher than the usual flu of past years.
Tacenda Posted March 20, 2020 Posted March 20, 2020 (edited) 2 hours ago, Calm said: Depends I think on whether the concern is for people currently in the US or all its citizens. Is it really worth it for parents to be paying $500? a month so their kids can sit in an apartment and be bored? If home, they can take classes online, babysit for parents who have to leave for work or get sick, or work on home projects or do the same missionary work that is allowed on lockdown. With countries closing borders and unknown how long this will be, forced separation of children from parents may not seem that appealing to most families even if not that different from voluntary separation. I wish the church had gotten them out earlier. Edited March 20, 2020 by Tacenda
pogi Posted March 20, 2020 Posted March 20, 2020 4 minutes ago, rongo said: I am, but it's probably a good thing that I'm not dictating policy with this. What I'm looking at looks more like particularly bad seasonal flu. The flu is not contagious up to 2 days before symptoms appear (that is scary!) I have never seen a bad case of a flu kill 27 people in a nursing home within a couple weeks. I have not seen a flu strain that is airborne for hours and can infect people even while in isolation on a cruise ship. This is such a highly contagious disease that without extreme precautions by all, vulnerable populations will drop like flies like in nursing homes etc. We have an aging population with all the baby boomers and probably some of the highest rates of diabetes, hypertension, and cardiovascular disease in the world. Many, many people are going to die. By the time it has made its way through the population, it will far surpass hospitalizations and deaths from flu (even with the extreme measures we are taking). I don’t think you fully appreciate what we are dealing with here, how under prepared we are to deal with it, and how vulnerable our population really is. Can you show me any evidence that it is mostly Asians who are dying from this in the US? 2
Calm Posted March 20, 2020 Posted March 20, 2020 (edited) 5 minutes ago, Tacenda said: I wish the church had gotten them out earlier. The Church is caught between a rock and a hard place satisfying everyone as is obvious in this thread, imo. Makes sense to me they were paying attention to what is happening in each location, both disease and governmentwise. Hopefully the slower withdrawal worldwide put less stress on areas dependent on missionaries to run their meetings or provide necessary services. Edited March 20, 2020 by Calm
Duncan Posted March 20, 2020 Posted March 20, 2020 The missionaries here in Canada are in total shutdown, aside from shopping, they can't go anywhere, they are encouraged to do social media though
Calm Posted March 20, 2020 Posted March 20, 2020 5 minutes ago, pogi said: bad case of a flu kill 27 people in a nursing home Out of around 120 iirc, which would be 20%.
Calm Posted March 20, 2020 Posted March 20, 2020 (edited) 26 minutes ago, pogi said: Can you show me any evidence that it is mostly Asians who are dying from this in the US? Unfortunately I can show this increase of Asian suffering in the US...(spoiler: isn't the Asians causing the problems) https://www.cnn.com/2020/02/20/us/coronavirus-racist-attacks-against-asian-americans/index.html Quote Rampant ignorance and misinformation about the novel coronavirus, experts say, has led to racist and xenophobic attacks against fellow Americans or anyone in the US who looks East Asian. "With news of the coronavirus, we've seen an uptick in fear of people who look like this," said Rosalind Chou, a sociology professor at Georgia State University. "Real people are affected." And the pain ranges from physical to verbal to financial. "We, the Asian community, are under attack," said Tanny Jiraprapasuke, who was born and raised in Los Angeles. https://www.theatlantic.com/international/archive/2020/03/coronavirus-covid19-xenophobia-racism/607816/ Even worse, it really doesn't matter where you live, someone is going to find an 'other' race to blame for their problems. Quote The denigration of certain populations is a familiar symptom of viral outbreaks. Disease, after all, fosters fear, which in turn fosters discrimination. During the 1853 yellow-fever epidemic in the United States, European immigrants, who were perceived to be more vulnerable to the disease, were the primary targets of stigmatization. During the SARS outbreak, which originated in China, East Asians bore the brunt. When the Ebola outbreakemerged in 2014, Africans were targeted. For this reason, the World Health Organization, which has overseen the global response to the coronavirus outbreak, opted against denoting a geographic location when officially naming the new virus, as it did with Ebola (named after the river in the Congo, where it was first detected) and the 2012 Middle East respiratory syndrome, known simply as MERS. “Stigma, to be honest, is more dangerous than the virus itself,” Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus, the WHO director-general, stated recently. Still, some media outlets and U.S. leaders continue to refer to the disease as the “Wuhan virus.”... As the coronavirus spreads, the xenophobia it foments quickly intertwines with the political conditions in the countries it touches, coloring the responses of populations and their governments. Right-wing parties in Europe, for example, have latched onto the outbreak to reiterate their calls for tougher immigration restrictions—Italy’s far-right leader Matteo Salvini was among the first to exploit the virus for his own kind of pandemic populism, erroneously linking the outbreak to African asylum seekers and urging border closures. Similar calls to suspend Europe’s open-border system, known as the Schengen Area, have been made by far-right politicians in Germany, France, and Spain. In the U.S., President Donald Trump pointed to the outbreak as further reason to construct a wall at the Mexico border. Edited March 20, 2020 by Calm
pogi Posted March 20, 2020 Posted March 20, 2020 13 minutes ago, Calm said: Unfortunately .I can show this: https://www.cnn.com/2020/02/20/us/coronavirus-racist-attacks-against-asian-americans/index.html https://www.theatlantic.com/international/archive/2020/03/coronavirus-covid19-xenophobia-racism/607816/ Maybe I missed it. Does this show that Asians are dying in higher rates in America?
Calm Posted March 20, 2020 Posted March 20, 2020 1 minute ago, pogi said: Maybe I missed it. Does this show that Asians are dying in higher rates in America? Absolutely not.... 1
bsjkki Posted March 20, 2020 Posted March 20, 2020 I think some missionaries might get stuck. Those who have a lot of time left on their missions who plan to stay might have to stay. I think being in quarantine with a companion would be awful if more than a few weeks. I would not want to depend on badly stretched health services if I needed care. Its not a good situation. 1
california boy Posted March 20, 2020 Posted March 20, 2020 9 hours ago, The Nehor said: I admit to a lack of sympathy for those in Peru that are stuck there. What possessed you to go play tourist in the middle of a pandemic? Ideally there will be quarantines like there were early on. I wonder how much longer we will keep planes flying as well. Even if the government does not do anything the airline unions are bound to start justifiably striking over how much unnecessary danger their people are being put in. As to tinfoil hat do you think this is a fake being perpetuated by every news organization on the planet? I don't think you realize how quickly things have escalated. I was in Spain for less than 2 weeks. When I booked my tickets, the virus was not even on the map. Even when I left, it was mainly in China with just a few cases in the Bay Area. In 5 days, Trump made his speech about closing borders to everyone. I probably got 30 messages within 15 minutes. Later that was clarified that citizens could return. But then Spain closed their borders a couple of days later even though Barcelona had less cases than San Francisco. People were making arrangements to fly to England because that country was not closed. Then two days later England was included. Rumors were going on that the airport would closed. Then there were rumors that the airline was laying off 50% of their workforce and cutting flights. You could only fly into 13 airports in the US. Fortunately one of them was San Francisco where I had my ticket. This all happened within 10 days. I can't tell you how lucky I feel that I made it home in the nick of time. Even with that, extra screening at the airport and told to remain quarantined for 14 days. Two days later, all of the Bay Area is in lockdown. I have total sympathy for those that are caught up in this mess. A single speech by the president of a country given on a minutes notice can turn your entire world upside down. I just feel incredibly lucky to be back home. 4
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