Coronavirus and General Conference

[Bernard Gui]

9 minutes ago, Robert F. Smith said:

I was more or less oblivious to Polio when I was a kid.  Had no idea it even existed, until one day at elementary school we all lined up and each of us got a sugar cube with the vaccine in it.  Tasted pretty good.  Can't recall now whether that was the Salk or Sabine vaccine.  It saved millions of kids from Polio.

My best friend contracted it and was put in an Iron Lung. He ended up with an atrophied left leg and walked with a limp. I remember getting the sugar cubes in the school gym, also.

[Calm]

29 minutes ago, Bernard Gui said:

My best friend contracted it and was put in an Iron Lung. He ended up with an atrophied left leg and walked with a limp. I remember getting the sugar cubes in the school gym, also.

I have a friend whose 1st grade class was part of the test group for one of the vaccines they were working on for polio.

He found out in 5th grade iirc of the whole class only four of them were still alive and he was the only one still walking of the four.

I think of that when I hear of frustration with the safety testing of new drugs these days.

In my high school years, one of the girls my age in my ward was deaf...measles outbreak in 62 I believe.  You just didn't see it in kids much younger than me.

Wonder how this will affect the anti-vaxxers (sp?)

Edited March 7, 2020 by Calm

[Calm]

1 hour ago, Bernard Gui said:

So, if Amazon, Microsoft, Boeing, T-Mobile, etc., all find that their workers are more productive not coming in to work, then the multi-billion dollar light rail system being forced on us will not be needed.

I remember in the 60s there was a series called the 21st Century with Walter Cronkite.  Everyone was going to be working and going to school from home.

Maybe this will finally make that prediction come true.

[mfbukowski]

6 hours ago, carbon dioxide said:

.  I trust that Pres Nelson will do the right thing regardless.

Gosh

 I wonder if he knows anything about medicine....  🤔

[mfbukowski]

4 hours ago, provoman said:

Corona virus is/was in Utah as of 3 days ago; "Medical Center in Murray is treating a patient with coronavirus inside a special unit separated from the hospital."

though the State Of Utah claims "doesn't have a confirmed case of COVID-19", claiming that since the diagnosis was not made in Utah it is not a confirmed diagnosis in Utah.

Broadcast tv, Internet, radio, are all available for use for Conference. If gathering in Conference Center is cancelled, I will feel sad for those who traveled for it. 

 

..... and brought the virus with them anyway, cancelled or not

 

[mfbukowski]

51 minutes ago, Calm said:

Wonder how this will affect the anti-vaxxers (sp?)

Evolution will take its course 

 

[Meadowchik]

3 hours ago, Calm said:

I remember in the 60s there was a series called the 21st Century with Walter Cronkite.  Everyone was going to be working and going to school from home.

Maybe this will finally make that prediction come true.

The high school for our kids where we used to live (in France) has closed for two weeks due to the concerns over the virus. And a branch of the college my older kids attend here (but not their branch, yet still local) has closed.

[pogi]

13 hours ago, ksfisher said:

Contagiousness

How far a virus will spread comes down to what’s known as the reproduction number, or R0. It relates to how many people each infected person will pass the illness on to. 

There have been various estimates for new coronavirus so far from different sources, but the WHO put a preliminary estimate as between 1.4 and 2.5.

The pandemic (H1N1) 2009 influenza virus, which was also known as swine flu, had a R0 of between 1.2 to 1.6, according to the WHO, which made controlling its spread easier than viruses with higher transmissibility.

Measles has a much higher R0 at 12 to 18 people.

Those estimates are “preliminary”.  We simply don’t have a good idea of actual number of cases to make a good estimate,  They are going to be much higher than is being reported.  The way it spreads on cruise ships even when people are quarantined suggests it is much more contagious than the swine flu ever was.

Measles is extremely contagious.  The difference is that we are not immuno-naive to it.  Anyone born before 1957 is considered immune because it was so prevalent and contagious that virtually everyone got it.  The younger generations are mostly vaccinated, so measles is not near as concerning as a novel virus with a high mortality rate.

Edited March 7, 2020 by pogi

[Bernard Gui]

11 hours ago, mfbukowski said:

..... and brought the virus with them anyway, cancelled or not

 

So, two local schools were closed last Thursday and are being sanitized this weekend. Sister Gui had to stay after school yesterday and scrub down her kindergarten room with disinfectant. The kids come back in on Monday. Does anyone else see the problem with this?

Edited March 7, 2020 by Bernard Gui

[Robert F. Smith]

4 hours ago, pogi said:

Those estimates are “preliminary”.  We simply don’t have a good idea of actual number of cases to make a good estimate,  They are going to be much higher than is being reported.  The way it spreads on cruise ships even when people are quarantined suggests it is much more contagious than the swine flu ever was.

Measles is extremely contagious.  The difference is that we are not immuno-naive to it.  Anyone born before 1957 is considered immune because it was so prevalent and contagious that virtually everyone got it.  The younger generations are mostly vaccinated, so measles is not near as concerning as a novel virus with a high mortality rate.

Here are some projections from the AHA via Dr. Liz Specht, https://twitter.com/LizSpecht

American Hospital Association "Best Guess Epidemiology" for #codiv19 over next 2 months for USA:

96,000,000 infections

4,800,000 hospitalizations

1,900,000 ICU admissions

480,000 deaths

[Calm]

10 hours ago, Meadowchik said:

The high school for our kids where we used to live (in France) has closed for two weeks due to the concerns over the virus. And a branch of the college my older kids attend here (but not their branch, yet still local) has closed.

Is it vacation time for the kids or are they doing work online?

How is the community handling child care?  I am wondering what happens with working parents and young kids in these situations.  Do neighbours take kids in or do they see it as a risk to their own family?  Are day cares required to stay open?

As far as I know, no one has died under 30, but I imagine many parents wouldn't be wanting to risk it.

[Calm]

5 hours ago, pogi said:

Anyone born before 1957 is considered immune because it was so prevalent and contagious that virtually everyone got it.

Why that cut off date if you know?

[Calm]

1 hour ago, Bernard Gui said:

So, two local schools were closed last Thursday and are being sanitized this weekend. Sister Gui had to stay after school yesterday and scrub down her kindergarten room with disinfectant. The kids come back in on Monday. Does anyone else see the problem with this?

I wonder if they will start doing what Singapore does, which is require either a note from home saying their temp was taken or it gets taken at the school (adults and children).

[pogi]

50 minutes ago, Calm said:

Why that cut off date if you know?

I think it’s largely based on serologic testing, but also based on timing of major measles epidemics.

Edited March 7, 2020 by pogi

[Calm]

13 minutes ago, pogi said:

I think it’s largely based on serologic testing, but also based on timing of major measles epidemics.

Thanks, I was thinking the last major measles outbreak was the year that I was born or the year before I was born, which would match, but then when I checked it was in 62 to 65 iirc.  But perhaps that last wasn't as massive.  

Edited March 7, 2020 by Calm

[Calm]

14 hours ago, mfbukowski said:

Evolution will take its course 

 

 

But seriously, I wonder if the fear of their kids getting this virus...the first time the risk has been so high for something that is being flooded in the media even if the risk to kids of death is apparently very low...will make them think the risk is worth the risk of autism or weakening the immune system or whatever they believe is worth the risk of no vaccines usually. 

Edited March 7, 2020 by Calm

[Bernard Gui]

2 hours ago, Calm said:

I wonder if they will start doing what Singapore does, which is require either a note from home saying their temp was taken or it gets taken at the school (adults and children).

How effective is that? You can be a carrier without outward symptoms such as fever. 

[mfbukowski]

44 minutes ago, Calm said:

 

But seriously, I wonder if the fear of their kids getting this virus...the first time the risk has been so high for something that is being flooded in the media even if the risk to kids of death is apparently very low...will make them think the risk is worth the risk of autism or weakening the immune system or whatever they believe is worth the risk of no vaccines usually. 

I am personally doing all I can that is reasonable and then keeping my immune system strong.   Sleep, liquids, vitamin C etc- as if I have a cold, though I do not.  Common sense, no wacko stuff, masks, etc.

I wear long sleeve shirts and use my right sleeve for social contact, touching things etc.   Left sleeve is for scratching as necessary.  Right hand is for whatever I have to touch that the sleeve won't handle.   So right hand- my dominant one- is used pretty normally without worrying about gloves etc.  Left hand I try to keep "uncontaminated" for touching face etc as needed.

I keep up my immune system

If I should die before I wake, I pray the Lord my soul to take. 

 

[Meadowchik]

2 hours ago, Calm said:

Is it vacation time for the kids or are they doing work online?

How is the community handling child care?  I am wondering what happens with working parents and young kids in these situations.  Do neighbours take kids in or do they see it as a risk to their own family?  Are day cares required to stay open?

As far as I know, no one has died under 30, but I imagine many parents wouldn't be wanting to risk it.

In fact, it's even larger than I thought, it's the entire department! (region) I don't know what people will do. It's normally schooltime now. Maybe I'll hear more about those details from my friends still living there.

It's weird, because I sort of watched the (online) Chinese students of our teaching company go through this after Chinese New Year, lasting weeks, and now it's found its way here. 

I expect that if my childrens' schools get shut, so will my uni, so atleast I can be home with them. No matter what I am expecting some major disruption, but worth it if it can slow down transmission and save lives.

[Calm]

30 minutes ago, Bernard Gui said:

How effective is that? You can be a carrier without outward symptoms such as fever. 

True, but it gets out the obvious ones and gets help for kids that might not be getting the care they need by reminding the parents or likely grandparents with parents working to keep an eye on them at home.

Edited March 7, 2020 by Calm

[mnn727]

11 hours ago, pogi said:

Measles is extremely contagious.  The difference is that we are not immuno-naive to it.  Anyone born before 1957 is considered immune because it was so prevalent and contagious that virtually everyone got it.  The younger generations are mostly vaccinated, so measles is not near as concerning as a novel virus with a high mortality rate.

I was born in 1956 and never had it. Only kids diseases I have had was Mumps (as a kid) and Chicken Pox in my 30's -- not fun at all.

----

If you are sick - Stay Home - from Conference, from Church, from work, etc.

Stop infecting the rest of us!

[pogi]

23 minutes ago, mnn727 said:

I was born in 1956 and never had it. Only kids diseases I have had was Mumps (as a kid) and Chicken Pox in my 30's -- not fun at all.

----

If you are sick - Stay Home - from Conference, from Church, from work, etc.

Stop infecting the rest of us!

There is around a 1% chance you never had measles.  Whether you think you had it or not, you were likely exposed at some point.  I can’t tell you how many times I have heard the same thing where people think they never had measles only to find out they have immunity after having their titters done.  Sometimes the cases are mild and can be confused for something else.  

[Rain]

16 minutes ago, pogi said:

There is around a 1% chance you never had measles.  Whether you think you had it or not, you were likely exposed at some point.  I can’t tell you how many times I have heard the same thing where people think they never had measles only to find out they have immunity after having their titters done.  Sometimes the cases are mild and can be confused for something else.  

And then there are people like me who can't seem to get immune even after several vaccines. I also had a nurse who had the vaccine 7 times and still wasn't immune.

Edited March 8, 2020 by Rain

[pogi]

Just now, Rain said:

And then there are people like me who can't seem to get immune even after several vaccines. I also had a nurse who had the vaccine 7 times and still want immune.

Yep, that can happen rarely too.  Nothing’s 100%

[The Nehor]

5 hours ago, Calm said:

 

But seriously, I wonder if the fear of their kids getting this virus...the first time the risk has been so high for something that is being flooded in the media even if the risk to kids of death is apparently very low...will make them think the risk is worth the risk of autism or weakening the immune system or whatever they believe is worth the risk of no vaccines usually. 

You cannot predict what irrational people will do. Most likely whatever the charlatans in their anti-vax group say.