New HBO News Segment focuses on LGBT issues, touches on Monson, Priesthood

[Daniel2]

13 minutes ago, Bob Crockett said:

Google my name and Rutgers.

Good grief. Would it REALLY have been so hard to simply post the link?!!

For those interested, here it is:

[ALarson]

17 minutes ago, Daniel2 said:

Good grief. Would it REALLY have been so hard to simply post the link?!!

For those interested, here it is:

Seriously.  I'll take a look at it though.

However, I'm not following his logic that it was the black vote that "single most significant factor" in the passing of Proposition 8.

Bob is entitled to his opinion, but I don't see that the facts back it up:

http://www.nytimes.com/2008/11/15/us/politics/15marriage.html

Quote

 

On Oct. 28, Mr. Ashton, the grandson of the former Mormon president David O. McKay, donated $1 million. Mr. Ashton, who made his fortune as co-founder of the WordPerfect Corporation, said he was following his personal beliefs and the direction of the church.

“I think it was just our realizing that we heard a number of stories about members of the church who had worked long hours and lobbied long and hard,” he said in a telephone interview from Orem, Utah.

In the end, Protect Marriage estimates, as much as half of the nearly $40 million raised on behalf of the measure was contributed by Mormons.

 

I'd imagine that the money donated by the church and the ads that the money paid for, influenced black voters as well as others.  Same with all the canvassing of neighborhoods by church members.

Edited January 12, 2018 by ALarson

[Bob Crockett]

5 minutes ago, ALarson said:

And how many Mormons voted in favor of Proposition 8?  

 

My article was based off of the Pew polling data.   I don't pretend to have done the research myself.  It is based on exit polling data and statistics.   Apparently, there were not enough data to make conclusions about Mormons, statistically speaking.  I think there are about 200,000 to 300,000 Mormons in California.  I would expect that given typical voting behavior and politics among Mormons and activity rate, and demographtics, one would expect that about 20% of that number would have voted for Prop 8.  Too low to hit Pew's numbers.  

19 minutes ago, CA Steve said:

In order for these numbers to mean anything, one would also have to know how many black voters voted against it. (Or the total number of black voters). Do you have that information?

As I have said, my article was based on Pew polling data as well as many published articles.  It seems that 70 or 80 percent of black voters voted in favor of Prop 8.   I think it likely that the Mormon vote would have been similar to the evangelical vote, and it would have been under 55%.  

[ALarson]

On 1/10/2018 at 3:22 PM, kiwi57 said:

How very noble, or something. But I'm not trying to bait you (or even to "bate" you, whatever that may mean.) You keep throwing out there these casual references to a "policy" which, on investigation, has been shown to never have existed. You've offered evidence for that policy which, on examination, has been shown to mean exactly the opposite of what you think it means. I've pointed this out to you - and yet you keep right on blithely asserting a claim that has been discredited.

Why can't you just own up that there was no such "policy" as you claim?

You're being ridiculous here, kiwi. 

Can you deny that at one time, church leaders instructed local leaders that being gay could be cured and that they should advise their gay members to date and marry the opposite sex?

http://www.mormondialogue.org/topic/70036-new-hbo-news-segment-focuses-on-lgbt-issues-touches-on-monson-priesthood/?do=findComment&comment=1209785745

 

[ALarson]

3 minutes ago, Bob Crockett said:

My article was based off of the Pew polling data.   I don't pretend to have done the research myself.  It is based on exit polling data and statistics.   Apparently, there were not enough data to make conclusions about Mormons, statistically speaking.  I think there are about 200,000 to 300,000 Mormons in California.  I would expect that given typical voting behavior and politics among Mormons and activity rate, and demographtics, one would expect that about 20% of that number would have voted for Prop 8.  Too low to hit Pew's numbers.   

Mormon voters turned out in very high numbers (I know, I was living in that state at the time).  I highly doubt that only 20% of the members voted.  You are trying to state things as facts that you really cannot back up.  

You are entitled to your opinion (regarding the black vote), but that's pretty much all it is....an opinion.

[Bob Crockett]

3 minutes ago, ALarson said:

Seriously.  I'll take a look at it though.

However, I'm not following his logic that it was the black vote that "single most significant factor" in the passing of Proposition 8.

Bob is entitled to his opinion, but I don't see that the facts back it up:

http://www.nytimes.com/2008/11/15/us/politics/15marriage.html

I'd imagine that the money donated by the church and the ads that money paid for, influenced black voters as well as others.  Same with all the canvassing of neighborhoods by church members.

Your last conclusion is not likely.  I was involved at the highest level in seeing how canvassing was going.  No canvassing was going on where the church does not have stable, uber-large wards.  In my valley of 300,000 persons with two stakes, for instance, a mostly white middle-class suburb which sends only Republicans to Congress, one of the stake presidents declined to get involved in the canvassing effort.  In my stake, only 4 of 8 wards got involved, and of the 4, only 2 in a very organized fashion.  So, I didn't see any canvassing to urban or south Los Angeles of any sort.

Yes, there were TV spots that the coalition bought.  But then, what of it?  Should the coalition have not done it, and why not?

Your NYT article is quite indicative of the PC reporting done on Prop 8.   Despite the existence of exit polling data, this article does not cite to it. Sure, the perception was that "Mormons tipped the scale," but there is nothing but anecdotal evidence to condemn the Mormons.  

[Bob Crockett]

5 minutes ago, ALarson said:

Mormon voters turned out in very high numbers (I know, I was living in that state at the time).  I highly doubt that only 20% of the members voted.  You are trying to state things as facts that you really cannot back up.  

You are entitled to your opinion (regarding the black vote), but that's pretty much all it is....an opinion.

My 20% number is based upon the rough assumptions of non-voters in the church,inactives and the  assumption that Mormons voted like Evangelicals.  It is extremely unlikely that more than 100,000 Mormons go to the polls in California given their numbers.  Hence, in exit polls, Mormon influence was neither detected nor reported -- at least on a statistical basis.

As to being entitled to my "opinion," it is contained in a prestigious law journal, peer reviewed, and based on exit polling data that isn't mine.

Edited January 12, 2018 by Bob Crockett

[ALarson]

Just now, Bob Crockett said:

Your last conclusion is not likely.  I was involved at the highest level in seeing how canvassing was going.  No canvassing was going on where the church does not have stable, uber-large wards.

Wow.  So, no black voters were influenced by the canvassing or the ads the church donations paid for?

That's really unbelievable that you'd even claim that, Bob.

I was involved with some of the door to door polling done by the church and I can tell you that many were blacks.

[Bob Crockett]

10 minutes ago, ALarson said:

Wow.  So, no black voters were influenced by the canvassing or the ads the church donations paid for?

That's really unbelievable that you'd even claim that, Bob.

I was involved with some of the door to door polling done by the church and I can tell you that many were blacks.

I think that you are now descending to absurd anecdotal argument.   I have nothing to say about your personal experience or the views of a particular black voter.  My article's conclusion is based upon statistics.  Either you have faith in the statistical method or you don't.  In my view, statistics don't lie, and the Pew pollsters are neutral. 

And, it is quite true -- polling was spotty and concentrated, just like in your personal experience, where wards were strong.

But, I might ask, what is wrong with ads and polling? Although I was against Prop 8, is there something wrong with the Coalition (mostly half Catholic and half Mormon) sponsoring such?  If so, why?  Do you think black voters lack free will in making voting decisions?  That seems to be the assumption of liberals, who try to impose limits on campaign advertising.  The voters just are stupid people who don't have any freedom of will.  Frankly, that kind of smugness is an outrage.  And I consider myself a liberal, usually voting Demo.

As far as my article being a mess, well, there's always a critic.  It has been quoted in major seminars on the topic; recently, at a Claremont Graduate University program on religious freedom by the headliner.  And, my conclusion is based upon Pew statistics.  And, no, I did not "twist" statistics.  Keep in mind, I opposed Prop 8.

Edited January 12, 2018 by Bob Crockett

[ALarson]

6 minutes ago, Bob Crockett said:

My 20% number is based upon the rough assumptions of non-voters in the church,inactives and the  assumption that Mormons voted like Evangelicals.

And that's a lot of "assumptions" used to try and make conclusions that you're stating as facts.

I started reading your article and IMO, it's a mess.  You really don't have much to back up your opinion that it was the black vote that was most influential in the passing of Proposition 8. 

I totally respect your right to your opinion, but can't see much that you've written which doesn't come down to "assumptions" and a twisting of what was in the pew numbers in an attempt to support your assumptions and opinion. 

You also do not know what influenced the black voters to vote as they did.  Or are you claiming they don't watch TV too and weren't influenced by the ads the church helped pay for?  

Edited January 12, 2018 by ALarson

[ALarson]

4 minutes ago, Bob Crockett said:

 

But, I might ask, what is wrong with ads and polling? Although I was against Prop 8, is there something wrong with the Coalition (mostly half Catholic and half Mormon) sponsoring such

There is nothing wrong with ads and polling (never said there was).

6 minutes ago, Bob Crockett said:

Do you think black voters lack free will in making voting decisions? 

Of course, never stated they didn't.  

But all voters are influenced by what they read and see regarding an issue.  The church spent a great deal of money (and man power by the members) in a effort to pass Proposition 8.  To try to deny the influence that had is foolish.

Once again, you are entitled to your opinion on this, Bob.  I disagree and do not see any facts that back up what you're trying to claim.  

[CA Steve]

18 minutes ago, Bob Crockett said:

.So, I didn't see any canvassing to urban or south Los Angeles of any sort.

 

I did. Members in our stake went around and handed out signs to be placed  on front lawns.

[Bob Crockett]

4 minutes ago, ALarson said:

There is nothing wrong with ads and polling (never said there was).

Of course, never stated they didn't.  

But all voters are influenced by what they read and see regarding an issue.  The church spent a great deal of money (and man power by the members) in a effort to pass Proposition 8.  To try to deny the influence that had is foolish.

Once again, you are entitled to your opinion on this, Bob.  I disagree and do not see any facts that back up what you're trying to claim.  

Marisa Abrajano, Are Blacks and Latinos Responsible for the Passage of Proposition 8? Analyzing Voter Attitudes on California’s Proposal to Ban Sam-Sex Marriage in 2008, POLITICAL RESEARCH QUARTERLY 63:922, 924 (2010), available at http://prq.sagepub.com/content/63/4/922.   This is an article cited in mine which seems to challenge the PC correctness to which you seem wedded.

You keep repeating over and over the mantra that the voter had to have been influenced by the Coalition's media campaign, and I want to know what is wrong with that?  And, you say nothing, but your argument seems to suggest that voters lacked free will.  Further, you just don't understand the statistical argument -- exist polls did not mention the influence.  

Rather, in the days coming up to the campaign black pastors were thumping the pulpit about getting the vote out for Obama and, and the same time, striking down the rights of gays.  Blacks voted in huge numbers.  WIthout their vote, Prop 8 would not have passed.  

[Bob Crockett]

9 minutes ago, CA Steve said:

I did. Members in our stake went around and handed out signs to be placed  on front lawns.

Where?  By the way, that isn't canvassing.  Canvassing is having voter registration and calling on election day after having made contact on a door-to-door basis with a commitment to vote.  Canvassing means going to the polls on voting day and getting lists of people who have voted and who have not, so you call those who haven't with whom you've made contact before.  Did you do that?   That is the Chicago method of getting out the vote, and the method the Coalition used in California.  You contact on election day only those who previously committed to vote in your favor.  It has nothing to do with handing out signs. 

Edited January 12, 2018 by Bob Crockett

[ALarson]

22 minutes ago, Bob Crockett said:

You keep repeating over and over the mantra that the voter had to have been influenced by the Coalition's media campaign, and I want to know what is wrong with that?  And, you say nothing, but your argument seems to suggest that voters lacked free will.  Further, you just don't understand the statistical argument -- exist polls did not mention the influence.  

Rather, in the days coming up to the campaign black pastors were thumping the pulpit about getting the vote out for Obama and, and the same time, striking down the rights of gays.  Blacks voted in huge numbers.  WIthout their vote, Prop 8 would not have passed.  

But that does not mean that was the single most significant factor in passing Proposition 8.  We do not know how many Mormons voted (unless there was a poll of that by someone) and you have no idea how many voters were influenced or persuaded to vote "yes" because of the money donated by church members and the efforts made by members of the church.

Do you believe it would have passed without the money donated for ads and the canvassing that the church members did?  (And I've never claimed there was anything "wrong with that", but it most definitely was an influence on getting the proposition to pass.)

There really was not just one single "factor" (the black vote), but there were many factors involved.  

We will just have to agree to disagree as I'm not interested in arguing further on this. 

As far as I've seen, you really cannot back up your claim here as being anything other than your opinion.

Edited January 12, 2018 by ALarson

[Bob Crockett]

11 minutes ago, ALarson said:

But that does not mean that was the single most significant factor in passing Proposition 8.  We do not know how many Mormons voted (unless there was a poll of that by someone).

Do you believe it would have passed without the money donated for ads and the canvassing that the church members did?  And I've never claimed there was anything "wrong with that", but it most definitely was an influence on getting the proposition to pass.

There really was not just one single "factor", but there were many.  

We will just have to agree to disagree as I'm not interested in arguing further on this. 

As far as I've seen, you really cannot back up your claim here as being anything other than your opinion.

It is a statistical fact that Pew reported that the 'single most important factor" in the passage of Prop 8 was being a black voter.  Do you deny that Pew reported that?

No exit poll revealed the Mormons as having an effect on the vote.  Deny that as well?  If so --- CFR.

There were many facts, yes, but I'm focusing on statistically significant facts.  I don't mean to impugn your intelligence, but there's a difference between the supposition of facts and statistically signficant facts.

As far as not backing up my claims -- how about the Pew statistical poll results and a peer reviewed article, and articles I cite agreeing with my assessment of the poll results?  Hmm.

Stats is a science.  It states a conclusion (a vote) and a significant factor in the vote (the black as a voter).  The statistics get dicey in the way the questions are framed, but the LDS Church had nothing to do with the polling.

Whereas I opposed Prop 8 (while supporting my priesthood leaders in getting out the vote for it at the same time; I had a personal appeal from my stake president and I was pleased to able to support my church when my personal politics disagreed; that is MY free will; when asked, I remembered my Catholic friends who oppose capital punishment only beause the Pope asked them to do so), I applaud the grassroots effort in getting out the vote for it.  It was done the way it should be done.  And, contrary to your supposition, voters have free will. 

Edited January 12, 2018 by Bob Crockett

[rockpond]

2 hours ago, Bob Crockett said:

It is in the statistical report from Pew in my article.  In terms of being of statistical significance, being black when interviewed in exit polls had the most significant relationship to a vote for Prop 8 than any other factor, like being religious or a Mormon.

Got it.  Thanks.  I understand the correlation.  But, I disagree with calling it the most significant factor in passing Prop 8 especially since, as I pointed out, you could remove the Black vote entirely and still get the same outcome.

[ALarson]

8 minutes ago, Bob Crockett said:

No exit poll revealed the Mormons as having an effect on the vote.  Deny that as well?  If so --- CFR.

I think I already stated:

13 minutes ago, ALarson said:

We do not know how many Mormons voted (unless there was a poll of that by someone) and you have no idea how many voters were influenced or persuaded to vote "yes" because of the money donated by church members and the efforts made by members of the church.

I'm moving on....IMO, you twisted information to fit your conclusion.  There is simply no way of knowing what the single most significant factor was in the passing of proposition 8.  Even if the black vote was significant (I'm not denying that), there is no way of knowing what the influence of the ads and canvassing done and paid for by church members had on those who voted.  It goes much deeper than just what you seem to want to state as a fact.

And now, I'm off of here for the day as I have a plane to catch.

Edited January 12, 2018 by ALarson

[rockpond]

1 hour ago, CA Steve said:

In order for these numbers to mean anything, one would also have to know how many black voters voted against it. (Or the total number of black voters). Do you have that information?

I did the math earlier using the figures from Bob's article.  Black vote was 718,997 in favor, 179,749 opposed.

So, if you remove all 898,746 Black votes from the Prop 8 totals you get:  6,282,087 yes votes, 6,221,733 no votes.  Same result, Prop 8 passes.  Much closer margin, but it still passes.

But, as Bob explained, he is considering the fact that the highest correlating factor to a "yes" vote was being Black.  I agree with him on that.

...

My opinion, if anyone cares (and no one should) is that the single most important factor in the passing of Prop 8 was the money that was spent on the campaign.

[Bob Crockett]

11 minutes ago, ALarson said:

There is simply no way of knowing what the single most significant factor was in the passing of proposition 8.  

1

Yes.  It is called "statistics."  The correlation factor for being a black voter was higher than anything else.  That means it was the single most significant factor.

Second highest factor:  Being black AND a religious person.  

It is not a matter of opinion.  It is a matter of science.   Of course, you have to have faith in (1) the methodology and (2) the questioning process.  Pollsters can mess up on that. 

[california boy]

I can hardly believe we are talking about Prop 8 again and Mormons trying to shift the spotlight on some other group that was responsible for its passing.  There was not one group that cast the most votes for Prop 8.  It was the majority of the total number of voters that. passed Prop 8.   Duh.

The huge role the Mormon Church played in passing that proposition that took away the civil rights of gay couples was in the FUNDING and MANPOWER crucial to its passing.  Own what you did.  Don't look to what other groups did to downplay the actual role the church played in its passing.  Move on.

[Bob Crockett]

8 minutes ago, rockpond said:

I did the math earlier using the figures from Bob's article.  Black vote was 718,997 in favor, 179,749 opposed.

So, if you remove all 898,746 Black votes from the Prop 8 totals you get:  6,282,087 yes votes, 6,221,733 no votes.  Same result, Prop 8 passes.  Much closer margin, but it still passes.

But, as Bob explained, he is considering the fact that the highest correlating factor to a "yes" vote was being Black.  I agree with him on that.

...

My opinion, if anyone cares (and no one should) is that the single most important factor in the passing of Prop 8 was the money that was spent on the campaign.

 "The difference between the “yes” and “no” vote for Proposition 8 was 504,479 votes; the number of black voters who voted in favor of Proposition 8 was 718,997."

Your opinion about the single most important factor did not emerge in the polling data.  Being black was the single most important factor.  There's no indication they were swayed by the Coalition's media campaign. 

But, then again, I ask, what is wrong with the media campaign?  I opposed Prop 8.  I still oppose not extending the right to marry to gays.  And I will forever. But why must you make this point about the media campaign except to suggest there is something wrong with it?  What is your point?

[Bob Crockett]

32 minutes ago, california boy said:

I can hardly believe we are talking about Prop 8 again and Mormons trying to shift the spotlight on some other group that was responsible for its passing.  There was not one group that cast the most votes for Prop 8.  It was the majority of the total number of voters that. passed Prop 8.   Duh.

The huge role the Mormon Church played in passing that proposition that took away the civil rights of gay couples was in the FUNDING and MANPOWER crucial to its passing.  Own what you did.  Don't look to what other groups did to downplay the actual role the church played in its passing.  Move on.

And I dispute your assertion.  With statistics.  Surely as a social scientist that has meaning to you.  And bravo, as I agree with the ultimate outcome as the gays won in the end with the courts.  Why do you want to continue to blame the church?  The whole reason this has erupted in this thread is that somebody had the temerity to invoke the supposition that blacks support gay rights because it is similar to the struggle for racial equality.  I dispute such a silly proposition.  They are not the same. 

"Duh."   Dispatch your political correctness with factual precision.  I don't resent gays.  I resent liberal smugness (getting uptight that a church can have a political opinion and money to spend on it), and I'm sort of a liberal. 

Edited January 12, 2018 by Bob Crockett

[rockpond]

45 minutes ago, Bob Crockett said:

 "The difference between the “yes” and “no” vote for Proposition 8 was 504,479 votes; the number of black voters who voted in favor of Proposition 8 was 718,997."

Your opinion about the single most important factor did not emerge in the polling data.  Being black was the single most important factor.  There's no indication they were swayed by the Coalition's media campaign. 

But, then again, I ask, what is wrong with the media campaign?  I opposed Prop 8.  I still oppose not extending the right to marry to gays.  And I will forever. But why must you make this point about the media campaign except to suggest there is something wrong with it?  What is your point?

There was nothing wrong with the media campaign.  Both sides had the right to raise money and campaign.  Both sides did.  I think Mormons and the LDS Church should take credit for what they accomplished.

As for the votes... it is misleading to cite the 504k vote difference in relation to the 719k Black "yes" votes without also citing the "no" votes.  The "Black vote" was comprised of both yes/no votes.

[rockpond]

49 minutes ago, california boy said:

I can hardly believe we are talking about Prop 8 again and Mormons trying to shift the spotlight on some other group that was responsible for its passing.  There was not one group that cast the most votes for Prop 8.  It was the majority of the total number of voters that. passed Prop 8.   Duh.

The huge role the Mormon Church played in passing that proposition that took away the civil rights of gay couples was in the FUNDING and MANPOWER crucial to its passing.  Own what you did.  Don't look to what other groups did to downplay the actual role the church played in its passing.  Move on.

It's odd to me that so many LDS seem to want to not take credit for what they helped accomplish in California.  If it was the right thing to do, why downplay their role?