Mormonleaks: Utah Activity Rate is...

[rongo]

21 minutes ago, SeekingUnderstanding said:

Sacrament meeting attendance in my Utah ward is right around 70%. Our activity rate is closer to about 90%

I was a ward mission leader in Taylorsville, Utah, and my father-in-law was a WML in a wealthy, nearly 100% LDS part of Sandy. Neither area was anywhere near 70% attendance. There are a lot of LDS who don't want to go to church, even in heavily LDS pockets. I'm skeptical about your 70/90 activity rate/ attendance rate. 

If nothing else, the Address Unknown people on every ward roster in the Church is a big drag on the percentage. It simply isn't possible to have such high attendance percentages when there are so many people "of record" on our rolls who aren't there (and therefore won't be at church). 

Edited May 23, 2017 by rongo

[hope_for_things]

13 minutes ago, SeekingUnderstanding said:

I suspect that a 30% activity rate is much too low for the United States, but may be about right for a world wide estimation. I'm only aware of attendance rates in the few places that I've lived (only been in Utah for less than a decade), but all have been between 40 and 50% (before moving to Utah).

Hmm..  I'm thinking after checking a few web sites out that the 30% number I had stuck in my head was a worldwide estimate, rather than a US activity estimate.  

[SeekingUnderstanding]

44 minutes ago, rongo said:

I was a ward mission leader in Taylorsville, Utah, and my father-in-law was a WML in a wealthy, nearly 100% LDS part of Sandy. Neither area was anywhere near 70% attendance. There are a lot of LDS who don't want to go to church, even in heavily LDS pockets. I'm skeptical about your 70/90 activity rate/ attendance rate. 

If nothing else, the Address Unknown people on every ward roster in the Church is a big drag on the percentage. It simply isn't possible to have such high attendance percentages when there are so many people "of record" on our rolls who aren't there (and therefore won't be at church). 

Given that I pulled those numbers by averaging the 2016 and 1st Q2017 numbers from our statistical report (activity rates are from percent quarterly attendance for Primary, YM/YW, Relief Society and Priesthood meetings, not sacrament) you have this random guy on the internet word for them.

ETA: I'm not saying these numbers are typical. I was putting them out there for two reasons, First to state that there are some very active areas of the church that offset lower activity areas. Second to give a feel for the difference activity rates and attendance rates.

Just as a point of reference, our endowed member with recommend rate is between 85 and 90%.

Edited May 23, 2017 by SeekingUnderstanding

[Okrahomer]

3 hours ago, HappyJackWagon said:

I'm pretty surprised that the population of Utah is under 3 million. 55% activity rate is higher than I would have expected.

According to the US Census Bureau, Utah's population crossed the 3 million threshold last year.  It also became the fastest growing US state.

[Hamba Tuhan]

4 hours ago, clarkgoble said:

Right. More the point I'm making is that you have fully active people who are regularly missing meetings for a variety of reasons...

The point being that attendance stats probably should at best be about 15% below what the actual activity is. And that's ignoring the chronically ill as Calm noted. 

As I have repeatedly pointed out on this board, average sacrament meeting attendance =/= activity rate (despite the title of this thread). When I was last serving in the bishopric of our ward (3.5 years ago), our average sacrament meeting attendance (and not just from the reporting month) was right around 39%. Yet nearly 60% of the members on our ward list were attending sacrament meeting. The simple reality is that not every active member is present every single week. Illness, work, travel, stake callings, etc. all play a role. It's inaccurate and -- for those who understand this point -- disingenuous to extrapolate activity rates from average sacrament meeting attendance figures.

3 hours ago, rongo said:

I was a ward mission leader in Taylorsville, Utah, and my father-in-law was a WML in a wealthy, nearly 100% LDS part of Sandy. Neither area was anywhere near 70% attendance. There are a lot of LDS who don't want to go to church, even in heavily LDS pockets. I'm skeptical about your 70/90 activity rate/ attendance rate. 

I did my undergraduate degree at a public university in Utah after my mission, and I was called as the elders quorum president in our singles ward. I realise a singles ward may be anomalous, but our average sacrament meeting attendance fluctuated from a low of 87% to a high of 93%. (This despite the fact that some of the students in the ward lived so close to their parents that they went 'home' every weekend.) In one year, literally half of all the non-members living in our ward boundaries were baptised. This plus our efforts in reaching out to the handful of less-active men in the ward led to the necessity of creating a second quorum of elders.

Edited May 24, 2017 by Hamba Tuhan

[pogi]

4 hours ago, rongo said:

I'm skeptical about your 70/90 activity rate/ attendance rate. 

While I never had access to the records, I grew up in a North East Orem neighborhood, and I honestly suspect our activity rates were even higher than that.  I knew our ward boundaries well as a deacon collecting fast offerings door-to-door.  I only knew of 2 non-member families in the ward boundaries, and 3 inactive families.  No joke!  There are pockets in Utah valley that are highly concentrated with active LDS families.  Our ward boundaries were very small because it was so concentrated.

Edited May 24, 2017 by pogi

[Gray]

14 hours ago, SeekingUnderstanding said:

I suspect that a 30% activity rate is much too low for the United States, but may be about right for a world wide estimation. I'm only aware of attendance rates in the few places that I've lived (only been in Utah for less than a decade), but all have been between 40 and 50% (before moving to Utah).

Yes, I think the worldwide activity rate is 35% or so, so it stands to reason it would be higher in the US, lower other countries (Canada excluded). My stake in the midwest has an activity rate of about 31-32% though

Edited May 24, 2017 by Gray

[RevTestament]

12 hours ago, pogi said:

While I never had access to the records, I grew up in a North East Orem neighborhood, and I honestly suspect our activity rates were even higher than that.  I knew our ward boundaries well as a deacon collecting fast offerings door-to-door.  I only knew of 2 non-member families in the ward boundaries, and 3 inactive families.  No joke!  There are pockets in Utah valley that are highly concentrated with active LDS families.  Our ward boundaries were very small because it was so concentrated.

I believe this to be true. Utah County is actually one of the very highest concentrations of active LDS in the entire church. Certain towns are still upwards of 90%+ LDS, and have pockets higher than that. I was once responsible for creating a ward map, and knew most of the families in it from Church.

[HappyJackWagon]

17 hours ago, rongo said:

I was a ward mission leader in Taylorsville, Utah, and my father-in-law was a WML in a wealthy, nearly 100% LDS part of Sandy. Neither area was anywhere near 70% attendance. There are a lot of LDS who don't want to go to church, even in heavily LDS pockets. I'm skeptical about your 70/90 activity rate/ attendance rate. 

If nothing else, the Address Unknown people on every ward roster in the Church is a big drag on the percentage. It simply isn't possible to have such high attendance percentages when there are so many people "of record" on our rolls who aren't there (and therefore won't be at church). 

Believe it. These pockets exist and help to pull up the overall average from other wards.

While I was bishop we had an average of 70-80% attendance every quarter. I thought it was pretty unusual, especially outside of Utah. But maybe it wasn't as unusual as I thought.

[pogi]

1 hour ago, HappyJackWagon said:

Believe it. These pockets exist and help to pull up the overall average from other wards.

While I was bishop we had an average of 70-80% attendance every quarter. I thought it was pretty unusual, especially outside of Utah. But maybe it wasn't as unusual as I thought.

They just had a dang good bishop!

[stemelbow]

21 hours ago, cinepro said:

...55%.

A recently leaked document includes notes on mission president training, in which it is revealed that in 2015:

 

 

Also,

Can't remember if we're allowed to link to the docs.

Ain't no big deal.  I guessed that. 

 

[stemelbow]

1 hour ago, HappyJackWagon said:

Believe it. These pockets exist and help to pull up the overall average from other wards.

While I was bishop we had an average of 70-80% attendance every quarter. I thought it was pretty unusual, especially outside of Utah. But maybe it wasn't as unusual as I thought.

Yeah, I'm in Utah and we're down below 50%, closer to 40, I'd guess is the average, as the years have rolled on.  Other wards in our stake are worse, though.  Other stakes near us do much better, I hear, and yet others do tons in our city (I live in Sandy) do tons better. 

[stemelbow]

5 minutes ago, pogi said:

They just had a dang good bishop!

I'm sure it plays a factor.  We've had 4 different bishops in our ward over the past decade and nothing has really changed in terms of activity.  The main thing I notice about those in our area who are on the rolls but have no intention of coming:  they don't relate, don't feel comfortable or that they fit in in anyway.  ""You can't come if you don't believe right." is basically the main message they've received over the years-generalizing a bit here.  Active members knock on their doors and make them feel lesser because they don't believe right and don't come.  But for the most part, they're good people who try their best to be charitable and nice to members anyway.  Sometimes they show up for different things just to support their neighbors.   

[HappyJackWagon]

11 minutes ago, pogi said:

They just had a dang good bishop!

Ha, ha. No. But thanks.

I actually live in an unusual area which attracts ultra-orthodox types. Most of the membership in my area are transplants from Utah/California but have come to my area for very Mormon reasons. We have very good, devout people. Very few Mormons are here by happenstance.

[pogi]

32 minutes ago, stemelbow said:

I'm sure it plays a factor.  We've had 4 different bishops in our ward over the past decade and nothing has really changed in terms of activity.  The main thing I notice about those in our area who are on the rolls but have no intention of coming:  they don't relate, don't feel comfortable or that they fit in in anyway.  ""You can't come if you don't believe right." is basically the main message they've received over the years-generalizing a bit here.  Active members knock on their doors and make them feel lesser because they don't believe right and don't come.  But for the most part, they're good people who try their best to be charitable and nice to members anyway.  Sometimes they show up for different things just to support their neighbors.   

That is unfortunate that active members do not always practice what is preached, making it much more difficult for those who feel like they don't fit.  

[clarkgoble]

4 hours ago, RevTestament said:

I believe this to be true. Utah County is actually one of the very highest concentrations of active LDS in the entire church. Certain towns are still upwards of 90%+ LDS, and have pockets higher than that. I was once responsible for creating a ward map, and knew most of the families in it from Church.

 I'm in Provo and there are a surprising number of non-Mormon or "don't want anything to do with the Church" families in our ward boundaries. So  I suspect this really varies by location within Utah county. There's a fairly large hispanic population now. (I think it's 13% statewide) While many of those are Mormons, I believe many are Catholic or non-religious. In the ward I lived in when I got married in west Provo there was a very, very high non-Mormon population. I bet within the more established (i.e. old) upper middle class neighborhoods that the rates for Mormons are much higher. We live in a middle class neighborhood but one with fair turnover and many recent developments on the benches. So I suspect the influx of non-Mormons is more noticeable here.

[carbon dioxide]

12 hours ago, RevTestament said:

I believe this to be true. Utah County is actually one of the very highest concentrations of active LDS in the entire church. Certain towns are still upwards of 90%+ LDS, and have pockets higher than that. I was once responsible for creating a ward map, and knew most of the families in it from Church.

My ward boundaries in Lehi consists of three fairly short streets and and a few more houses off to the west side. 

[Ouagadougou]

On 23.05.2017 at 11:22 AM, cinepro said:

...55%.

A recently leaked document includes notes on mission president training, in which it is revealed that in 2015:

 

 

Also,

Can't remember if we're allowed to link to the docs.

It's even lower outside of Utah and the US.  If you estimate that 30% of the entire church is active (~16 million people), then that's around 5 million people out of 7.5 BILLION people on earth.  The church's overall size and influence is quite insignificant on the global scale.  

[Avatar4321]

On ‎5‎/‎23‎/‎2017 at 2:59 PM, Gray said:

Mole infiltration sounds like exmos are applying for jobs at the COB. Likely it's people who started out working there as believers, had a faith crisis, and are currently antagonistic toward Mormonism but keeping quiet to keep their jobs. 

 

but why would we want untrustworthy people who are in a state of rebelling working for us?

[Avatar4321]

On ‎5‎/‎24‎/‎2017 at 11:27 AM, pogi said:

That is unfortunate that active members do not always practice what is preached, making it much more difficult for those who feel like they don't fit.  

I hope this doesnt derail anything but if the members don't practice what they preach and the less active doesn't do it either, why shouldn't they get alone fine? Imperfect people getting along with imperfect people

[Gray]

13 minutes ago, Avatar4321 said:

but why would we want untrustworthy people who are in a state of rebelling working for us?

It's certainly not desirable to have someone antagonistic to your organization working for it. 

[Avatar4321]

12 hours ago, Ouagadougou said:

It's even lower outside of Utah and the US.  If you estimate that 30% of the entire church is active (~16 million people), then that's around 5 million people out of 7.5 BILLION people on earth.  The church's overall size and influence is quite insignificant on the global scale.  

and yet we will have power to influence the course of human history

[Ouagadougou]

1 hour ago, Avatar4321 said:

and yet we will have power to influence the course of human history

And so far that influence is less than 1% of humanity currently on earth...not that significant for the one and ONLY true church on earth.  

[Avatar4321]

46 minutes ago, Ouagadougou said:

And so far that influence is less than 1% of humanity currently on earth...not that significant for the one and ONLY true church on earth.  

i suspect you are conflating influence with church membership. But our influence spreads further than the number of baptized members are in the church.

 

for example, much of my extended family are not members if the Church. But they are influenced by the restored Gospel because of the impact.it has had in my life. I give them blessings. I serve them. I try to persuade them to live better lives when I need to.

our influence is not just felt by those who are baptized.

[stemelbow]

2 minutes ago, Avatar4321 said:

i suspect you are conflating influence with church membership. But our influence spreads further than the number of baptized members are in the church.

 

for example, much of my extended family are not members if the Church. But they are influenced by the restored Gospel because of the impact.it has had in my life. I give them blessings. I serve them. I try to persuade them to live better lives when I need to.

our influence is not just felt by those who are baptized.

To be clear, no one needs to be a member of the Church to do those things for their family, and as life experience has shown, most people who do the stuff you mention aren't members of the Church.