Brian 2.0 Posted October 6, 2013 Posted October 6, 2013 (edited) President Uchdorf said (and I'm paraphrasing): "At a time when other churches are declining in numbers we are growing" and then touted the 15 million number. I am not saying he is being misleading, but if the activity rate is declining faster than that total number of members stat is growing, then I would say there is some "declining" going on. Average Sacrament Meeting attendance would be a great number to look at year after year. We have that stat, do we not? I always see the clerk walking up and down the aisle taking the number. I'm assuming those numbers aren't public since I never heard about them, but if they are reported all the way up to SLC then that would be the stat to watch. Do we have any indication of that stat? Edited October 6, 2013 by Brian 2.0
jkwilliams Posted October 6, 2013 Posted October 6, 2013 Probably the best number for determining the relative growth of the church is the size of church units (wards and branches), which tends to be higher if activity rates are lower.
webbles Posted October 6, 2013 Posted October 6, 2013 There's a blog that has some good posts on church growth. You can find it at http://ldschurchgrowth.blogspot.com/. He has a post about a year ago answering the question "Is the LDS Church Growing?" (http://ldschurchgrowth.blogspot.com/2012/08/is-lds-mormon-church-growing.html) In that post, he gives areas where it looks like the church is growing and areas where it looks like the church is stagnating. His conclusion is that the church is growing but "remains relatively small and has slowed within the past decade." He also has a post where he tries to surmise the activity rate using seminary and institute enrollment (http://ldschurchgrowth.blogspot.com/2011/02/assessing-member-activity-rates-by.html) and another dealing with members per church unit (http://ldschurchgrowth.blogspot.com/2008/04/latter-day-saints-per-congregations.html).
rongo Posted October 6, 2013 Posted October 6, 2013 President Uchdorf said (and I'm paraphrasing): "At a time when other churches are declining in numbers we are growing" and then touted the 15 million number. I am not saying he is being misleading, but if the activity rate is declining faster than that total number of members stat is growing, then I would say there is some "declining" going on. Average Sacrament Meeting attendance would be a great number to look at year after year. We have that stat, do we not? I always see the clerk walking up and down the aisle taking the number. I'm assuming those numbers aren't public since I never heard about them, but if they are reported all the way up to SLC then that would be the stat to watch. Do we have any indication of that stat?I don't know that the average attendance number is available, but it directly affects the quarterly budget allotment given to the unit. It is based on the average attendance during "counting months" (March, June, September, December). My ward is "hurt" by this because many families travel for the entire summer and holidays (spring break in March, Christmas break, etc.). So, our ward funding was not representative of our actual, overall attendance ---- just "sweeps months." I had an extended conversation with a fellow teacher at my middle school last week --- a former Pentacostal minister. He wanted to know how many Mormons there are. I told him there are 14 million nominal members, but about 5 million "active" members.
thesometimesaint Posted October 6, 2013 Posted October 6, 2013 Depends of what you consider active. Semiofficially if you attend one Sacrament Meeting a month or if you want to be considered active you are.
Anijen Posted October 6, 2013 Posted October 6, 2013 To push further thesometimesaint's point of view; I could think of a scenario where the member hasn't been to church in 10 years, not to a single church function, yet I would consider him/ or her completely active. 1
rongo Posted October 6, 2013 Posted October 6, 2013 I think >1 sacrament meeting per month fits within ca. 5 million or so. About 2/3 don't even do that.
rongo Posted October 6, 2013 Posted October 6, 2013 To push further thesometimesaint's point of view; I could think of a scenario where the member hasn't been to church in 10 years, not to a single church function, yet I would consider him/ or her completely active.True. I hometeach a brother whose childhood polio came back. When he fell and broke his hip and knee, the doctor told him that it isn't worth it to operate, and he is now 100% wheelchair bound (previously, he could use a walker and go from room to room). He is fully active (we take him the sacrament). How many such members do you think there are worldwide? 3
Anijen Posted October 6, 2013 Posted October 6, 2013 True. I hometeach a brother whose childhood polio came back. When he fell and broke his hip and knee, the doctor told him that it isn't worth it to operate, and he is now 100% wheelchair bound (previously, he could use a walker and go from room to room). He is fully active (we take him the sacrament). How many such members do you think there are worldwide?I do not know, I am confidently sure it is not enough to make up for the truly inactive. When I hear the word "elect" I do not think of leadership or of prophets etc., I think of those who are active (even if they sometimes do not want to be), Sunday after Sunday they come and renew their covenants, these are they who I feel are the elect of God. Not for some grand reason, but because of their commitment to accept any calling, go out and serve their neighbors, and endure to the end. 1
ERayR Posted October 6, 2013 Posted October 6, 2013 I do not know, I am confidently sure it is not enough to make up for the truly inactive. When I hear the word "elect" I do not think of leadership or of prophets etc., I think of those who are active (even if they sometimes do not want to be), Sunday after Sunday they come and renew their covenants, these are they who I feel are the elect of God. Not for some grand reason, but because of their commitment to accept any calling, go out and serve their neighbors, and endure to the end. When I hear the word "elect" or think of the truly active I think of someone doing all they can, no matter how little or how much, to serve the Lord and their fellow man. Someone who has a testimony and is seeking guidance and revelation. 2
rpn Posted October 6, 2013 Posted October 6, 2013 Attending sacrament meeting is not a saving ordinance, baptism is. When I read about argument of the church's size, and activity or lack thereof, I recall that once a person is baptized, s/he accesses the atonement. Seems to me that for earthly measures, that should be enough to call someone a Saint, however the person struggles with living or wanting to live those baptismal covenants. 3
why me Posted October 6, 2013 Posted October 6, 2013 I think that we can look at the size of the wards. If the wards are basically crowded every sunday, then I would assume that the numbers are growing. The critics have been championing that the number of members leaving is huge. But I don't see that in the numbers. Without the influence of the internet in proclaiming church decline, most of us would consider the church to be in a healthy position.
rodheadlee Posted October 6, 2013 Posted October 6, 2013 I've attended 3 times in the last year but consider myself active. Same with my wife. I can't wait to get home and go to my new ward for the second time. I didn't think I'd be gone this long and I brought no church clothes. If I was in Key West, Marathon or Grand Cayman I'd go in my beach/ work clothes and no one would care. 2
rongo Posted October 6, 2013 Posted October 6, 2013 Have you received authorization to bless and administer the sacrament while at sea?
HairBear Posted October 6, 2013 Posted October 6, 2013 True. I hometeach a brother whose childhood polio came back. When he fell and broke his hip and knee, the doctor told him that it isn't worth it to operate, and he is now 100% wheelchair bound (previously, he could use a walker and go from room to room). He is fully active (we take him the sacrament). How many such members do you think there are worldwide? I am such a member. I am disabled, and I find it very hard to attend Church, but consider myself active. 1
Bill “Papa” Lee Posted October 7, 2013 Posted October 7, 2013 President Uchdorf said (and I'm paraphrasing): "At a time when other churches are declining in numbers we are growing" and then touted the 15 million number. I am not saying he is being misleading, but if the activity rate is declining faster than that total number of members stat is growing, then I would say there is some "declining" going on. Average Sacrament Meeting attendance would be a great number to look at year after year. We have that stat, do we not? I always see the clerk walking up and down the aisle taking the number. I'm assuming those numbers aren't public since I never heard about them, but if they are reported all the way up to SLC then that would be the stat to watch. Do we have any indication of that stat?Membership numbers are numbers, tracking inactivity is almost impossible, I recently had another hospital stay, I have not been to Church in months, now I am facing more surgeries. A few months ago I went to a funeral of a friend in a Ward I attended for 30 years. Many I knew weekly in Church thought we just stopped coming.
Stone holm Posted October 7, 2013 Posted October 7, 2013 I suspect we are growing slightly. I believe our Ward is baptizing people at a slightly faster rate than people are going inactive , we were growing at a faster rate before the SSM political debacle, but I think we are on the rebound if they would just let that issue and the political activism fade away. I suspect that it may have had the opposite effect down South.
ERayR Posted October 7, 2013 Posted October 7, 2013 I suspect we are growing slightly. I believe our Ward is baptizing people at a slightly faster rate than people are going inactive , we were growing at a faster rate before the SSM political debacle, but I think we are on the rebound if they would just let that issue and the political activism fade away. I suspect that it may have had the opposite effect down South. My ward is gaining 10 - 12 convert baptisms a year over the last four years. Our sacrament meeting attendance is up about 40 from four years ago.
Freedom Posted October 7, 2013 Posted October 7, 2013 Remember, this is global numbers. Membership growth in the Unites States and Canada have slowed significantly but as a global church we are growing. Although, in British Columbia we are baptising, I believe, 150/month. This is a ward every 3 months. Ward sizes have been increasing from an average of 427 members in 200 to an average of 509 in 2012. The numbers are as follows2000 - 4272001 - 4372002 - 4482003 - 4572004 - 4602005 - 4642006 - 4682007 - 4742008 - 4812009 - 4862010 - 4932011 - 5022012 - 509I draw these averages by dividing the total number of members each year by the total numbers of wards and branches. It isn't an exact science but I think the trend is clear.
Stone holm Posted October 7, 2013 Posted October 7, 2013 My ward is gaining 10 - 12 convert baptisms a year over the last four years. Our sacrament meeting attendance is up about 40 from four years ago.We used to be one of the fastest growing Wards in Northern New England. I think fluctuations are regional. Although actually, I suspect our convert baptism rate is still not too far off of that, had we not lost members during the heightened political activity our membership would be up as well. My old Ward in Indiana though has been stagnant for years.
Stone holm Posted October 7, 2013 Posted October 7, 2013 Remember, this is global numbers. Membership growth in the Unites States and Canada have slowed significantly but as a global church we are growing. Although, in British Columbia we are baptising, I believe, 150/month. This is a ward every 3 months. Ward sizes have been increasing from an average of 427 members in 200 to an average of 509 in 2012. The numbers are as follows2000 - 4272001 - 4372002 - 4482003 - 4572004 - 4602005 - 4642006 - 4682007 - 4742008 - 4812009 - 4862010 - 4932011 - 5022012 - 509I draw these averages by dividing the total number of members each year by the total numbers of wards and branches. It isn't an exact science but I think the trend is clear.Why is it growing faster in Canada? I can understand growth outside the U.S. But why in Canada?
ERayR Posted October 7, 2013 Posted October 7, 2013 We used to be one of the fastest growing Wards in Northern New England. I think fluctuations are regional. Although actually, I suspect our convert baptism rate is still not too far off of that, had we not lost members during the heightened political activity our membership would be up as well. My old Ward in Indiana though has been stagnant for years. Ward demographics is a big factor. If it is a ward of older people it is much more stagnate than a younger more vibrant ward.
Stone holm Posted October 7, 2013 Posted October 7, 2013 Ward demographics is a big factor. If it is a ward of older people it is much more stagnate than a younger more vibrant ward.Some truth there, however, the Indiana Ward was younger than the Vermont Ward . Having Sister missionaries played a major role in the baptism rate, I don't think we ever quite recovered from losing our pair of sister missionaries, I keep hoping we will get Sisters as part of the surge, but that hasn't happened.
The Nehor Posted October 7, 2013 Posted October 7, 2013 Rumors of our imminent plateauing and/or demise have been greatly exaggerated. 1
ERayR Posted October 7, 2013 Posted October 7, 2013 Some truth there, however, the Indiana Ward was younger than the Vermont Ward . Having Sister missionaries played a major role in the baptism rate, I don't think we ever quite recovered from losing our pair of sister missionaries, I keep hoping we will get Sisters as part of the surge, but that hasn't happened. A good ward mission leader is a requirement.
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