Israel Iran Armageddon

[rodheadlee]

So what does this dustup do for the time line for the Return of the King? I guess it would be kind of ironic if Iran hit the Dome of the Rock with one of their missiles. I don't think they are very good at aiming those things.

Nehor, I await your synopsis, or anyone else for that matter. 

Of course we've eaten all of our food and water storage and our Armageddon getaway sailboat is a  900 Mi away from where I work. We would like to bring it up North but I'm having trouble getting the engine running. I'm not a very good diesel mechanic.

[CV75]

6 hours ago, rodheadlee said:

So what does this dustup do for the time line for the Return of the King? I guess it would be kind of ironic if Iran hit the Dome of the Rock with one of their missiles. I don't think they are very good at aiming those things.

Nehor, I await your synopsis, or anyone else for that matter. 

Of course we've eaten all of our food and water storage and our Armageddon getaway sailboat is a  900 Mi away from where I work. We would like to bring it up North but I'm having trouble getting the engine running. I'm not a very good diesel mechanic.

I think the timeline for the Second Coming is either set (and only the Father knows it as of the latest intel from the New Testament) or is somewhat flexible/conditional -- and both can be the same thing. Each day brings us closer, that is for sure.

[longview]

I think North Korea with its madman despot could easily and stealthfully gift Iran with both the nuclear device and the rocket to boost it. Iran firmly believes this kind of extremism hasten the advent of the "prophesied" messianic hero called the Mahdi, the twelfth imam. The jihadist believe the following:

• The Mahdi is the hero who will usher in an era of divine justice.

• Extreme warfare and global chaos are seen as necessary preconditions for his appearance.

• These apocalyptic beliefs motivate acts of terrorism and mass violence, as extremists believe they are divinely mandated to bring about the end times.

[The Nehor]

Here is my amateur read of the geopolitical situation.

First we deal with objectives. Israel’s stated goal is to disrupt Iran’s nuclear program. I am cynical that this is the primary reason. Israel in general and Netanyahu in particular love to beat the drum that Iran having nuclear weapons is imminent. Over a decade ago Netanyahu was saying that Iran was months away from a nuclear bomb and that has been said again and again ever since. The reality is that Netanyahu has a lot of domestic troubles. He is very unpopular at the moment and his coalition is starting to fracture. A court decision last year stripped the Haredi (Ultra-orthodox) of their protection from the draft. On the ground though the Haredi are still almost unanimously ignoring call up orders. Netanyahu is also facing investigations for corruption and recently very narrowly avoided a call to dissolve parliament. Gaza is not serving as a sufficient distraction so this is likely motivated at least in part by a desire to distract from his troubles and hopefully get a win that will keep him in power.

Iran’s goal is to survive and get a nuclear deterrent. Also to keep their unpopular regime in power. They really didn’t want or need this conflict.

Currently Israel claims to have total air superiority and that seems to be true. Israel also boasts impressive missile defenses. Israel managed to kill a lot of Iran’s top defense officials and has hit a lot of Iran’s infrastructure. Iran can retaliate with their own long-range missiles but most are shot down. Contrary to what some think Iran’s missiles are not inaccurate by modern standards but many miss or hit other targets due to Electronic warfare and other methods of diversion or an incomplete interception.

Everything is not necessarily going Israel’s way though. Israel’s interceptors are expensive and can only be built so fast. If supplies run low Israel could be in trouble and would be forced to ration them or limit their use to defending key areas. Israel has a very fragile infrastructure. If Iran can take out Israel’s desalination plants or cut off power to them Israel could be in big trouble very quickly. Disabling the port at Haifa would also cut off vital supplies to Israel.

Part of Israel’s strategy is to take out the missile launchers. Israel has claimed they have got about half of them. I am dubious. We also don’t know how big Iran’s stockpile of missiles is. Do they have enough to run Israel out of interceptors? We don’t really know.

Can Israel disrupt Iran’s nuclear program? Probably not. Most of the facilities are deep underground and Israel can’t get to them. Building a nuclear bomb is trivial at this point. The key is to create enough fissile material to have a bomb. After that you also have the problem of delivering the payload to the target. This is where North Korea is at. They have nuclear bombs but no reliable way to deliver them to a target in the face of US and South Korean missile defenses. This is part of the impetus behind North Korea’s new blue water destroyers. Some may have seen the failed launch of the second destroyer which didn’t go so well. Having longer ranged naval vessels that could deliver a nuclear weapon to a target complicates defending against an attack.

What Israel wants is for the US to use their bunker buster bombs to take out the underground facilities. These weapons have not been given to Israel. There is internal infighting in the US administration about whether this is a good idea. It is also worth noting that these bombs may not succeed even if used. Once you get to a certain depth it is very difficult to do anything even with advanced weapons. You could theoretically knock them out with ground troops but no one wants to go down that route.

It is worth noting that Israel and Iran don’t share a border and Iran doesn’t have a semi-reliable ally anymore they could move troops through. I also doubt Iran has the logistical ability to fight such a ground war even if Syria would let them through. It is also worth noting that in the past Iran would probably have relied on coordinating attacks with Hezbollah to overwhelm Israel’s defenses but Hezbollah doesn’t have the capability to help as much as it used to.

So Israel can hit Iran with relative impunity but history shows that you can’t force capitulation through strategic bombing. Since the end of World War 1 theorists argued you could but reality has shown it doesn’t work. There is a wildcard element in that rebellious elements in Iran might topple the government but I wouldn’t count on it and I think the likelihood of this happening is pretty low.

Will this usher in the end of days? Not likely. If Iran gets a bomb (or already has one) and uses it to target an Israeli city then Iran gets nuked by Israel. I don’t see this happening but that is the worst case situation I see.

Also, one side piece. Iran is claiming it has down several F-35 fighters. If true, this would be big. Iran’s air defenses and their own planes shouldn’t be able to touch a fifth generation fighter. I suspect Iran is lying. All of the images I have seen were faked.

Some have compared this conflict to the one in Ukraine but they are different. If either side in that conflict could establish local air superiority the way Israel has they would probably start winning. Neither side can. This is not a ground war so it matters a little less in this case. 

So where is this going? I see the two sides trading strikes until Israel either declares victory or one or both sides can’t continue. I personally hope the United States stays uninvolved. If you want some morbid humor you can watch the Tucker Carlson vs Ted Cruz interview where they play weaselly word games and cheap rhetorical tricks on each other when arguing about whether the United States should get involved. It is humiliating on so many levels.

I am being clinical and high-level. People are losing their lives for this and the horrors of conflict are all over the region including in Gaza where the conflict hasn’t stopped.

[The Nehor]

6 hours ago, longview said:

I think North Korea with its madman despot could easily and stealthfully gift Iran with both the nuclear device and the rocket to boost it. Iran firmly believes this kind of extremism hasten the advent of the "prophesied" messianic hero called the Mahdi, the twelfth imam. The jihadist believe the following:

• The Mahdi is the hero who will usher in an era of divine justice.

• Extreme warfare and global chaos are seen as necessary preconditions for his appearance.

• These apocalyptic beliefs motivate acts of terrorism and mass violence, as extremists believe they are divinely mandated to bring about the end times.

Not going to happen. North Korea is not giving a nuke to Iran. The retaliation that would provoke could bring down North Korea. Also why would North Korea want Iran to have a nuke? Kim Jong-un is not a madman. Acquiring a nuclear deterrent was logical for him. He and other despots were taking notes when the United States toppled the governments in Afghanistan and Iraq. If they had had nukes it wouldn’t have happened.

Gifting nukes to Iran would just be stupid. It also wouldn’t accomplish much. Even if they did gift the nuke and a delivery system and it got to Iran what happens? Do they shoot it at Israel? How does that benefit North Korea? It wouldn’t even benefit Iran as Iran then gets hit with Israel’s nukes.

Reminder: Israel is a nuclear power.

The problem with this kind of theorycrafting is it doesn’t consider motive. You just lump all the ‘bad guys’ as willing to help each other do evil and don’t consider motives and incentives or the fact that their goals aren’t in any kind of harmony. North Korea is not eager to kick off some kind of Jihadist end-times scenario.

And no, not all jihadists believe that nor is Iran’s government focused primarily on ushering in the end of days by any means necessary. Iran didn’t want this conflict. This isn’t 3d chess where Iran is pushing all the pieces on the board to trigger a prophecy

Also after the Mahdi comes Jesus comes next so why would you want to slow that down? 😜

[longview]

3 hours ago, The Nehor said:

Iran’s goal is to survive and get a nuclear deterrent. Also to keep their unpopular regime in power. They really didn’t want or need this conflict.

They "really" didn't want or need this conflict? You are really off your rocker. I requested this info from chatGPT:

Quote

my prompt:  list the various factions and allies that Iran has been funding and supplying and directing around the middle east

ChatGPT said:

Iran has developed a broad network of proxies, allies, and affiliated factions across the Middle East over the past four decades. This network is part of Iran’s strategy to project power, counter U.S. and Israeli influence, and expand its ideological and geopolitical reach—often referred to as the "Axis of Resistance."

Here is a breakdown by country or region of the main groups Iran has funded, supplied, or directed:

---

1. Lebanon

▪ Hezbollah

• Iran’s most powerful and long-standing proxy.

• Founded in the early 1980s with IRGC (Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps) backing.

• Receives hundreds of millions in aid, weapons, and training.

• Functions as both a political party and a heavily armed militia.

• Has fought Israel multiple times and aids Iran in Syria.

---

2. Syria

▪ Syrian Government (Bashar al-Assad)

• Iran has provided financial support, weapons, and troops (including IRGC and militias).

• Coordinates with Russia in support of Assad.

▪ Liwa Fatemiyoun (Fatemiyoun Brigade)

• Comprised mostly of Afghan Shia fighters, trained and directed by the IRGC.

▪ Liwa Zainabiyoun (Zainabiyoun Brigade)

• Pakistani Shia fighters, also IRGC-directed.

▪ Other Iraqi and Lebanese militias operating in Syria

• Including Hezbollah and Iraqi groups like Harakat al-Nujaba and Kata’ib Hezbollah.

---

3. Iraq

▪ Popular Mobilization Forces (PMF) / Hashd al-Shaabi

• Umbrella of mostly Shia militias.

• Many PMF factions are aligned with or directly controlled by Iran.

Key Iran-aligned groups in the PMF:

• Kata’ib Hezbollah – IRGC-Quds Force proxy.

• Asa’ib Ahl al-Haq – Led by Qais Khazali; pro-Iran ideology.

• Harakat al-Nujaba – Close ties to Iran and Hezbollah.

• Badr Organization – Iran-backed since the 1980s.

---

4. Yemen

▪ Houthis (Ansar Allah)

• Zaydi Shia rebels who overthrew the Yemeni government in 2015.

• Receive training, drones, ballistic missile components, and funding from Iran.

• Engage in conflict with Saudi-led coalition.

• Increasingly used to target Israeli and Western ships in the Red Sea.

---

5. Palestinian Territories

▪ Hamas

• Sunni Islamist group ruling Gaza.

• Though historically Sunni, maintains strong ties with Iran due to shared opposition to Israel.

• Receives financial aid, weapons, and military training.

▪ Palestinian Islamic Jihad (PIJ)

• Stronger and more consistent alignment with Iran than Hamas.

• Heavily funded and armed by the IRGC.

• Acts as a direct proxy in Gaza.

---

6. Bahrain

▪ Saraya al-Ashtar

• Militant Shia group with suspected IRGC-Quds Force links.

• Has conducted attacks against Bahraini security forces.

---

7. Saudi Arabia (Eastern Province) and Kuwait

▪ Local Shia dissident groups

• Iran is accused of encouraging unrest among Shia populations in the Gulf monarchies.

• Evidence exists of past attempts at arming or directing subversive elements.

---

8. Afghanistan & Pakistan (as launch points or recruitment bases)

• Fatemiyoun and Zainabiyoun brigades are recruited from local Shia communities for foreign deployments, particularly in Syria.

---

Coordinating Arm:

▪ IRGC-Quds Force

• Iran’s elite external operations unit.

• Coordinates funding, weapons transfers, training, intelligence, and strategic direction of all these groups.

• Operates across borders, especially in Iraq, Syria, Lebanon, and Yemen.

It is obvious that Iran has been and still is MASSIVELY funding an ALL-OUT subversion, infiltration and assault on BOTH Israel, the US and the West in general for MANY decades.

3 hours ago, The Nehor said:

Gifting nukes to Iran would just be stupid. It also wouldn’t accomplish much. Even if they did gift the nuke and a delivery system and it got to Iran what happens? Do they shoot it at Israel? How does that benefit North Korea? It wouldn’t even benefit Iran as Iran then gets hit with Israel’s nukes.

If NK succeeds in secretly shipping the device to Iran where mullahs will stash it in a secure location for long enough, then NK will bide its time and NOT boast about it. Iran will work at making preparations for the most strategic effect in a place and time. The 9/11 jihadist carried out a VERY impressive martyrdom operation that required extensive planning and preparations and millions of dollars in funding. They even had time for their compatriots to do a huge short on airline stocks.

3 hours ago, The Nehor said:

Reminder: Israel is a nuclear power.

It does NOT matter! If moslem soldiers are willing to die in martyrdom operations, so will the mullahs be willing to pit their ENTIRE nation (Iran) to become a martyr country. Remember: it wants to TRIGGER the advent of the Mahdi using extreme circumstances.

It won't necessarily be North Korea that supplies the weapon, it could be Red china. Xi has been massively building up the power of his military for decades. If either NK or the CCP (or even jointly) can cause a severe event in the middle east, that will enable a surprise attack on Taiwan, South China waters, and even Japan and South Korea. The US military will be stretched too thin. This kind of scenario will cause the US stock market to crash WORSE than 1929!

[Notatbm]

Well looks like they need to start cancelling missions for the foreseeable future. Need our youth to go fight this war. Former Sen Smith of Oregon and Boyd K Packer would want them to. Need to make the Middle East a democracy to prepare it for the gospel. 
 

This has potential to be a mess, but i think the people of Iran will have their own tea party soon. We just have to destabilize it enough. 

[Calm]

2 hours ago, Notatbm said:

looks like they need to start cancelling missions for the foreseeable future.

Unlikely even if there is a war that involves the US (a big if) and the draft gets reinstated (a much bigger if imo). In the past the Church had agreements that allowed for deferment until after missions when it came to being drafted, even if it was limited in numbers allowed to take it.

Edited June 22, 2025 by Calm

[Notatbm]

2 hours ago, Calm said:

Unlikely even if there is a war that involves the US (a big if) and the draft gets reinstated (a much bigger if imo). In the past the Church had agreements that allowed for deferment until after missions when it came to being drafted, even if it was limited in numbers allowed to take it.

I agree. I’m just joking as I know the church wouldn’t cancel (or nearly so) the mission program like they did in ww2. Plenty of non Mormons willing to fight if needed they don’t need any of our kids to help. 

[The Nehor]

The United States targeted and damaged three of Iran’s nuclear facilities. The President said they were obliterated but he is prone to hyperbole/lying any time he describes what he sees as his own accomplishments. Others have said they sustained damage but it is still being assessed.. It is not clear how much this will put back Iran’s nuclear program or if this is a one-time intervention or the start of a campaign.

[The Nehor]

13 hours ago, longview said:

They "really" didn't want or need this conflict? You are really off your rocker. I requested this info from chatGPT:

I am talking about this specific campaign which they do not want. Yes, Iran funds militants. Also ChatGPT’s list is out of date.

13 hours ago, longview said:

It is obvious that Iran has been and still is MASSIVELY funding an ALL-OUT subversion, infiltration and assault on BOTH Israel, the US and the West in general for MANY decades.

What dos all-out mean? And no, their target is not the United States. They do want to counter Israel’s regional influence and destabilize Israel to the extent they can. Iran was relatively muted during the Gaza campaign. They made some symbolic attempts at rhetoric but they didn’t want to be dragged into a military conflict. Israel has bombed them before. Iran knows they are weak if Israel comes out swinging. Hence why they did not want this specific engagement.

They don’t want it because the risk of losing it is very high. They are self-interested, not stupid. Yes, Iran would gladly destroy Israel if they could. They can’t and they don’t want this specific conflict.

13 hours ago, longview said:

If NK succeeds in secretly shipping the device to Iran where mullahs will stash it in a secure location for long enough, then NK will bide its time and NOT boast about it. Iran will work at making preparations for the most strategic effect in a place and time. The 9/11 jihadist carried out a VERY impressive martyrdom operation that required extensive planning and preparations and millions of dollars in funding. They even had time for their compatriots to do a huge short on airline stocks.

Again why would North Korea do this? Also fissile material is traceable. If the bomb is used North Korea will almost certainly be exposed as the nation that gave it.

And again why would North Korea care about Iran’s regional squabbles with Israel and take that risk?

The 9/11 attack was performed by Al Qaeda. While Iran and Al Qaeda have grown a bit closer over the years they are not natural allies and have a lot of ideological differences. Seeing all muslim groups as a monolith is a gross oversimplification. Finding a handful of willing martyrs in a terrorist group is doable but does not mean most of the population or most of the leadership of Iran are eager to die as martyrs. That is not how people work.

13 hours ago, longview said:

It does NOT matter! If moslem soldiers are willing to die in martyrdom operations, so will the mullahs be willing to pit their ENTIRE nation (Iran) to become a martyr country. Remember: it wants to TRIGGER the advent of the Mahdi using extreme circumstances.

No, they aren’t and they won’t. If they wanted to immolate their own nation they could. If they wanted to die as martyrs all they had to do was grab every foreigner in the country one day and execute them all for religious reasons. You don’t need a nuke to get other nations to rip you to shreds. They don’t want to get ripped to shreds. You are denying people their humanity and turning them into caricatures of evil. This blinds you to reality. It also allows the people who dehumanize them to justify atrocities to stop them from doing things they weren’t actually going to do.

13 hours ago, longview said:

It won't necessarily be North Korea that supplies the weapon, it could be Red china. Xi has been massively building up the power of his military for decades. If either NK or the CCP (or even jointly) can cause a severe event in the middle east, that will enable a surprise attack on Taiwan, South China waters, and even Japan and South Korea. The US military will be stretched too thin. This kind of scenario will cause the US stock market to crash WORSE than 1929!

China has even less reason to give a bomb to Iran than North Korea and potentially much much more to lose. Supplying a nuke to a rogue state would result in sanctions that would cripple the Chinese economy. It would be an incredibly stupid move especially as China has in the last six months recently started to escape the economic control that US hegemony imposed on them.

There won’t be a surprise attack on Taiwan. The kind of mobilization of ships and troops needed to attack Taiwan will be seen months in advance by the US and intelligence agencies around the world. Even then it could potentially be defeated even if the United States doesn’t directly intervene. It is difficult to predict what will happen. It will be a peer competitor naval action in a confined and heavily fortified area to land troops. There will be missile launchers all over the area and drones delivering all kinds of payloads. And electronic warfare clashing in ways we haven’t seen and we have only a limited idea of how it would work. There hasn’t been a naval conflict like this before or an amphibious invasion like this before using current military tech. If Taiwan has prepared the way I think it has China may not even get ashore. Even if they do the available landing areas are horrible terrain for an invader. It would be a bloodbath for the Chinese. We also don’t know much about the state of the Chinese military. The last time they faced a peer nation in a military conflict was the Korean War. How well maintained is their military? Is it as rife with corruption as we found out Russia’s military is? Taiwan will be much more difficult than taking Ukraine would have been if Russia hadn’t gutted its own military. If China’s military has been allowed to waste away I don’t think they can pull it off.

The more likely tact China would take with Taiwan would be to blockade it and/or assault its other island possessions to pressure 

And China is not going to attack Japan or South Korea. Wars don’t inevitably crash stock markets.

You are catastrophizing and treating adversary nations like caricatures. You imagine that everyone in Iran is some kind of end-times fanatic and that for some reason non-muslims will be eager to help this along. So eager they will risk their own interests to do so. None of this is how geopolitics works.

[The Nehor]

13 hours ago, Notatbm said:

Well looks like they need to start cancelling missions for the foreseeable future. Need our youth to go fight this war. Former Sen Smith of Oregon and Boyd K Packer would want them to. Need to make the Middle East a democracy to prepare it for the gospel. 
 

This has potential to be a mess, but i think the people of Iran will have their own tea party soon. We just have to destabilize it enough. 

Unlikely, I doubt there will be a land invasion of Iran seeking a regime change. I am betting it stays an air power and missiles only conflict. Expensive but it doesn’t require a lot of manpower. Also the United States may not stay involved. The current administration is waffling over what happens next. My guess is the President declares victory and walks away while talking about negotiating for a peace that Israel likely won’t want yet and Iran may try to wait the conflict out. 

[Notatbm]

1 hour ago, The Nehor said:

Unlikely, I doubt there will be a land invasion of Iran seeking a regime change. I am betting it stays an air power and missiles only conflict. Expensive but it doesn’t require a lot of manpower. Also the United States may not stay involved. The current administration is waffling over what happens next. My guess is the President declares victory and walks away while talking about negotiating for a peace that Israel likely won’t want yet and Iran may try to wait the conflict out. 

Agreed no boots on ground, but we don’t know how the regime is gonna act going forward. They are dumb enough to ramp up the war via proxies so it shows up everywhere. I think  the proxies are going to fade away because now Iran probably can’t afford to fund and supply them. Israel will continue to attrit their ability to export their toys. 
 

people mention sleeper cells from time to time. I worked with saudis while I was in the military and the Saudis lived here in the states. They were more or less relatives of royalty and had lived here for up to a decade or more in many cases. They loved it here because they could drink, whore around, go to strip clubs etc. Even as men and family of royalty they were just like everyone else except they didn’t have to work. They chose Saudi military service and university in the states as an escape from Saudi except eventually they had to come home and bring all their training with them to the Saudi military. They hated living in saud because they had no freedom. In their opinions sleeper cells was a flawed tactic in the states once the people got here and were on their own. Sure they had funding but they could also disappear with ease and never be found. I’m thinking they might be on to something because the sleeper cells thing has always been on the table-so far so good but my work with them was back in 2004 so quite some time back. obviously things can change. 
 

tin foil hat on- maybe the Saudis are the sleeper cells 

Edited June 22, 2025 by Notatbm
Typos-my iPhone auto correct is as crazy as the iatolla

[rpn]

7 hours ago, The Nehor said:

The President said they were obliterated but he is prone to hyperbole/lying any time he describes what he sees as his own accomplishments.

If I'd been Iran's president, I would have removed that already enriched uranium to a site no where near the three sites the USA hit before I fired anything at Israel.  I'm thinking (though I'd like to be wrong), that taking out the 3 sites we did may not have solved the problem of the already sufficiently enriched matter.  

[Stargazer]

On 6/21/2025 at 9:39 PM, The Nehor said:

What Israel wants is for the US to use their bunker buster bombs to take out the underground facilities. These weapons have not been given to Israel.

I would like to point out that neither Israel nor any other US ally have aircraft that can carry the weapon that was used on Fordow (the GBU-57). The only currently operating aircraft that can carry the GBU-57 is the B-2. The B-1 and the B-52 could be modified to carry the bomb, but none of them have been modified (except one test B-52).

[Stargazer]

27 minutes ago, rpn said:

If I'd been Iran's president, I would have removed that already enriched uranium to a site no where near the three sites the USA hit before I fired anything at Israel.  I'm thinking (though I'd like to be wrong), that taking out the 3 sites we did may not have solved the problem of the already sufficiently enriched matter.  

SecState Marco Rubio said in a press interview that the Fordow facility had only refined to 60% U-235 (something which Iran has admitted). Further refinement would be necessary to increase the yield to weapons-grade, which is 90% U-235. But there is no other reason to refine to anything past 5% except to eventually make a bomb. Civil reactors only need 3 to 5% to produce electrical power. And just because they say they've only gotten to 60% doesn't mean they haven't gone further, as you've suggested.

 

 

[BCSpace]

One of my thoughts is that Israel is so prepared and on the ball militarily (the occasional setback notwithstanding) that it is unlikely they will ever be in much danger...UNTIL there is a general peace in the region.  That is when the countdown starts. With peace, Israel will lose its edge and be wide open to attack from its enemies, who are playing the long game. 

One could also look for the day when the United States no longer supports Israel as a sign that the time is at hand.