Generalizations About Mormons Extracted From Utah Statistics

[strappinglad]

Subscriptions (registrations on the system) or subscribers (people using the service)?

 

 

 

Yes, there could be a lot of " Looky Lous " that really are not testing the waters .

[KevinG]

Yes, there could be a lot of " Looky Lous " that really are not testing the waters .

 

That would be another interesting analysis.  Total number of visits/paid subscriptions.  I would be willing to bet Utah and the Bible Belt would rate higher than DC on that measure.

[SeekingUnderstanding]

3mm is the entire population of Utah.

 

So the number of active LDS in Utah according to our shared stats is.

 

3,000,000 x .58 (self identified Mormons) x .35 (activity rate) = 525,000

 

Compared to a worldwide rate of 15mm x .35 (assuming a similar rate of activity worldwide) = 5,250,000

 

So the percentage of active Utah Mormons compared to worldwide active Mormons would be 1%

 

I'm not sure I buy that either.  Suffice it to say Mormonism is no longer centered in Utah or even the United States, and the culture and behaviors of  Mormons are as widely varied as many other groups.

 

Just for clarity, your math comes out to 10% not 1%. Plus we need to compare apples to apples. 2 million members on the roles in Utah vs 15.3 million outside of Utah. Cumorah.com estimates the activity rate in the states (defined as attending more often than not) at about 40% vs world wide 30%. I'd suggest that Utah (based on the wards I've been able to survey comes in much higher than 40% - my local ward has at least 80% activity). So worldwide 4.59 Million active members. Utah has at least 0.8 million (assuming 40% activity). This would put Utah at at least 17.4% of the world's active mormons. If we assumed a 50% activity rate for Utah, then more than 20% of active mormons would live in Utah.

[Okrahomer]

That would be another interesting analysis.  Total number of visits/paid subscriptions.  I would be willing to bet Utah and the Bible Belt would rate higher than DC on that measure.

 

Another poster on the other thread mentioned this, but it's worth noting again that there is a correlation between the AM data and household access to high-speed internet services.  Here's an interesting chart from the US Census for 2013.  Note how similar it is (with some outliers) to the AM chart.

[KevinG]

Just for clarity, your math comes out to 10% not 1%. Plus we need to compare apples to apples. 2 million members on the roles in Utah vs 15.3 million outside of Utah. Cumorah.com estimates the activity rate in the states (defined as attending more often than not) at about 40% vs world wide 30%. I'd suggest that Utah (based on the wards I've been able to survey comes in much higher than 40% - my local ward has at least 80% activity). So worldwide 4.59 Million active members. Utah has at least 0.8 million (assuming 40% activity). This would put Utah at at least 17.4% of the world's active mormons. If we assumed a 50% activity rate for Utah, then more than 20% of active mormons would live in Utah.

 

Thank you.  I always hand my memos to my staff for proofing for this very reason!

[KevinG]

Another poster on the other thread mentioned this, but it's worth noting again that there is a correlation between the AM data and household access to high-speed internet services.  Here's an interesting chart from the US Census for 2013.  Note how similar it is (with some outliers) to the AM chart.

 

Soooo.... if you want your spouse to stay faithful don't allow them access to high speed internet.  

[Okrahomer]

Soooo.... if you want your spouse to stay faithful don't allow them access to high speed internet.  

 

Seems like a no brainer.

[Okrahomer]

An additional adjustment in your estimates may also be called for in order to account for the fact that both infants and children are included in LDS membership figures; therefore, both because of this counting practice as well as a significantly higher birthrate, LDS membership skews young.  Adjusting for this would shift the estimates downward; unless one insists that Utah Mormon babies and children are somehow using the AM website too.

[SeekingUnderstanding]

An additional adjustment in your estimates may also be called for in order to account for the fact that both infants and children are included in LDS membership figures; therefore, both because of this counting practice as well as a significantly higher birthrate, LDS membership skews young.  Adjusting for this would shift the estimates downward; unless one insists that Utah Mormon babies and children are somehow using the AM website too.

Not sure if this was addressed to me, but since I was only trying to set the record straight between Kevin and HappyJackWagon, I doubt it. The original study posted by Rockpond only that ranked the states, only looked at the adult portion of the population.

[sethpayne]

What are you using to look at the data?

 

I'm using MySQL Workbench to design the queries but the limit is a return of 50k records.  So to do larger queries I'm just running mysql from the command line and redirecting the output to a CSV file.

[sethpayne]

I'm not sure why this is relevant (?)  Didn't sethpayne state he didn't get into the credit card records for his stats here?

 

This is correct.  I am NOT looking at credit card transaction information.  Only the self-reported city input by the user when creating their profile(s).

[sethpayne]

I would just dump it into access but you could or should get the same results. I need to see if I can find time to look at though.

 

That should work.  Access can probably handle 32M records .... but make sure you are using a SSD.  

[ttribe]

I'm using MySQL Workbench to design the queries but the limit is a return of 50k records.  So to do larger queries I'm just running mysql from the command line and redirecting the output to a CSV file.

 

Uhh, you're a marketing guy...how did you learn how to manipulate and search big data using SQL queries?

[Okrahomer]

Not sure if this was addressed to me, but since I was only trying to set the record straight between Kevin and HappyJackWagon, I doubt it. The original study posted by Rockpond only that ranked the states, only looked at the adult portion of the population.

 No sorry. I meant it for KevinG.  He had earlier attempted to extrapolate estimates from available Utah data.  Edit to add:  See post #18

Edited August 21, 2015 by Okrahomer

[sethpayne]

I am officially lost then.

 

Carry on without me!      (I'm interested in finding out what Seth divines from the data.)

 

Ok.  So here's the deal with the data.

 

The "Impact Team" released what we could call 3 sets of data. 

 

1.  User profile information -- raw database dumps.  You have to have some technical background with databases (and Unix) if you want to really see what's here.  This dataset is HUGE!  32M+ records.  Member passwords have been "safely" encrypted.  There is nothing in this data that gives anyone's real name or address.  The problematic data here is self-reported email addresses, zip, city, st, and of course, their "preferences."  The REALLY problematic data is the latitude and longitude given for the last time each user accessed the site.  

 

All numbers I've given here come from this data set alone.  All of this data is self-reported and non-verified.  So even though I did find a BYU prof's email address in the database and saw that this user last accessed the site *near* campus, there is no way to conclude that it was actually this prof.  Anyone could have used that email and so its possible a student -- or someone else -- used it.

 

2.  CC Transaction data for many years -- these are all in excel spreadsheets.  No full CC numbers are included

 

This is the data that gives actual names and addresses.  If your name is in this list, you have been caught red-handed unless you can prove someone stole your CC, knew your billing zip and CC identification number.  This data -- even though it is in spreadsheets -- is more challenging for *me* to parse in any meaningful way.

 

3.  Internal AM company info -- Released to try and embarrass the AM parent company execs.  

 

So anyone reporting on paid users MUST be using the CC info.  How they are matching that up to any specific profile information is beyond me.  I'm not doubting them.  But I'm also not seeing any easy way to do this.

 

ETA:  Ok.  I'm dumb.  I see how folks are lining up the confirmed CC info with the self-reported profile info.  They are matching up the email address in both sets.  For some reason I didn't think the email was stored in the CC transactions but there it is... plain as day.

Edited August 22, 2015 by sethpayne

[sethpayne]

Uhh, you're a marketing guy...how did you learn how to manipulate and search big data using SQL queries?

 

 

The vast majority of my career was spent as a sales/systems engineer.  I know my way around Unix variants and cut my tech teeth on Linux back in 1998.  So I'm a technical marketing guy -- and these days have been doing more product development that pure marketing.

[ttribe]

 

The vast majority of my career was spent as a sales/systems engineer.  I know my way around Unix variants and cut my tech teeth on Linux back in 1998.  So I'm a technical marketing guy -- and these days have been doing more product development that pure marketing.

 

You're a rare bird...a hybrid if you will.  Anyone who can talk both the engineering lingo and the marketing lingo has to be valuable to a company that knows what that means to them.

 

I suggest you go ask for a raise...on my recommendation, of course.

[Calm]

Fire them.  Not for moral failings.  But anyone stupid enough to purchase Ashley Madison services from a work computer should not be teaching at Brigham Young University.  

I thought BYU servers blocked such sites. Not so anymore?

[Calm]

 

Two observations:  1) 19,000 subscribers to Ashley Madison is a hell of a big number of adulterers online.  2) .3% of anything is a very insignificant trend for a general population.

According to some article that was linked to a number of users they called were actually single and looking for string free relationships or just curious and didn't followthrough...so not quite so many adulterers, but you can add instead a lot of fornicators and...well, not exactly voyeurs, don't know what to call them.

[Calm]

I'll have to remember this rationalization the next time a poster comes on here citing an article how Utah ranks highest/near the top for topics such as "most charitable state, "state with highest marriage satisfaction rates," "most educated state," etc., and then everyone jumps on board and pats one another on the back on how these positive results are the result of the church teachings, LDS mindsets, etc. I have seen numerous such posts over the years.

If you have from the individuals pointing out the current problems, you would have a point. I don't recall Kevin making that claim, I have always urge caution myself and I know other posters often do as well.

[Calm]

 And actually, I did see a few times where it looks like the same person had multiple accounts ....

iirc, the one BD cited said they eliminated duplicates.

[sethpayne]

I thought BYU servers blocked such sites. Not so anymore?

 

I imagine that these were accessed from mobile devices while a person was on campus.  So they would be using their wireless data and not the BYU network.

[SmileyMcGee]

Blue Dreams indicated that .66% (or .0066 of the adult population of Salt Lake City of @200,000) were users of Ashley Madison, then that leaves us with 1320 paid subscribers.

Given that the rate of Active Mormons in Salt Lake City is between 35-41% then conservatively speaking there are statistically 541 LDS subscribed wanabee adulterers in Salt Lake City.

Of those I wonder how many are active opponents of gay marriage. The smell of hypocrisy barely registers against the smell of dead brine shrimp on the edge of the Great Salt Lake.

Well...participating on AM isn't the only way to be a hypocrite... Edited August 22, 2015 by SmileyMcGee

[smac97]

Regarding this Ashley Madison ("AM") thing, I was reminded of the Savior's counsel and warning in Luke 12:1-3 - "Beware ye of the leaven of the Pharisees, which is hypocrisy.  For there is nothing covered, that shall not be revealed; neither hid, that shall not be known.  Therefore whatsoever ye have spoken in darkness shall be heard in the light; and that which ye have spoken in the ear in closets shall be proclaimed upon the housetops."

 

I'm not sure I would characterize the AM data dump as a literal fulfillment of this scripture, but perhaps a fulfillment in a Mosiah 13:30-31 kind of way: "Therefore there was a law given them, yea, a law of performances and of ordinances, a law which they were to observe strictly from day to day, to keep them in remembrance of God and their duty towards him.  But behold, I say unto you, that all these things were types of things to come."

 

I wonder if we can look at this event in a sobering, yet helpful, way. One of the most important themes in scripture is "remembrance."  We too easily forget our origins, our relationship with God, and God's omniscience.  Forgetting that last one seems to be particularly fraught with peril.  There are many scriptural exhortations about God, about His righteous judgment, and about the guilt we will feel if we don't "remember" that He sees and knows of everything we do.  "O how great the holiness of our God! For he knoweth all things, and there is not anything save he knows it."  (2 Nephi 9:20).

 

The shame being felt by many of the AM users who have been "caught" must be acute.  I'm thinking here of AM users who have used that website to facilitate gross wickedness in their lives, who have injured themselves and relationships with others, who have breached sacred trusts.  Others may have only signed up on the AM website but went no further then perusing out of idle curiosity.  These folks will still no doubt be very embarrassed, and their loved ones may still feel betrayed by even idle perusing by trusted people in their lives.

 

At the moment, this story is at the height of the public consciousness.  I therefore think it could be helpful for us as Latter-day Saints to humble ourselves, to abstain from judgment (this is often a toughie for me), and to "remember."  Remember who we are and our relationship with our Father in Heaven.  Remember why we are here.  Remember the vital nature of repentance and diligent obedience to the commandments of God.  Because as exquisitely embarrassed / humiliated / shamed many of the AM users will be, I can't help but think that this is but a type and shadow of the judgments to come, as evidenced by the following scriptures:

 

Jacob 6:9 - "Know ye not that if ye will do these things, that the power of the redemption and the resurrection, which is in Christ, will bring you to stand with shame and awful guilt before the bar of God?"

 

Mormon 9:3-6 "Then will ye longer deny the Christ, or can ye behold the Lamb of God? Do ye suppose that ye shall dwell with him under a consciousness of your guilt? Do ye suppose that ye could be happy to dwell with that holy Being, when your souls are racked with a consciousness of guilt that ye have ever abused his laws?  Behold, I say unto you that ye would be more miserable to dwell with a holy and just God, under a consciousness of your filthiness before him, than ye would to dwell with the damned souls in hell.  For behold, when ye shall be brought to see your nakedness before God, and also the glory of God, and the holiness of Jesus Christ, it will kindle a flame of unquenchable fire upon you.  O then ye unbelieving, turn ye unto the Lord; cry mightily unto the Father in the name of Jesus, that perhaps ye may be found spotless, pure, fair, and white, having been cleansed by the blood of the Lamb, at that great and last day."

 

Mosiah 2:38 - "Therefore if that man repenteth not, and remaineth and dieth an enemy to God, the demands of divine justice do awaken his immortal soul to a lively sense of his own guilt, which doth cause him to shrink from the presence of the Lord, and doth fill his breast with guilt, and pain, and anguish, which is like an unquenchable fire, whose flame ascendeth up forever and ever."

 

2 Nephi 9:14-15 - "Wherefore, we shall have a perfect knowledge of all our guilt, and our uncleanness, and our nakedness; and the righteous shall have a perfect knowledge of their enjoyment, and their righteousness, being clothed with purity, yea, even with the robe of righteousness.  And it shall come to pass that when all men shall have passed from this first death unto life, insomuch as they have become immortal, they must appear before the judgment-seat of the Holy One of Israel; and then cometh the judgment, and then must they be judged according to the holy judgment of God."

 

These passages would seem quite grim, but for their being counterbalanced by the many other scriptures about the beautiful gift of Repentance.  Here are some favorites:

 

D&C 58:42-43 - "Behold, he who has repented of his sins, the same is forgiven, and I, the Lord, remember them no more.  By this ye may know if a man repenteth of his sins—behold, he will confess them and forsake them."

 

D&C 18:11-13 - "For, behold, the Lord your Redeemer suffered death in the flesh; wherefore he suffered the pain of all men, that all men might repent and come unto him.  And he hath risen again from the dead, that he might bring all men unto him, on conditions of repentance.  And how great is his joy in the soul that repenteth!"

 

D&C 38:14 - "But now I tell it unto you, and ye are blessed, not because of your iniquity, neither your hearts of unbelief; for verily some of you are guilty before me, but I will be merciful unto your weakness."

 

Enos 1:4-6 - "And my soul hungered; and I kneeled down before my Maker, and I cried unto him in mighty prayer and supplication for mine own soul; and all the day long did I cry unto him; yea, and when the night came I did still raise my voice high that it reached the heavens.  And there came a voice unto me, saying: Enos, thy sins are forgiven thee, and thou shalt be blessed.  And I, Enos, knew that God could not lie; wherefore, my guilt was swept away."

 

So for me, now is not the time for schadenfreude (is there ever a time for that?).  Now is not the time for finger-wagging or tut-tutting or snickering or self-congratulation or mockery or sanctimony.  It doesn't matter that my name is not in the AM data.  I have other sins which, while not divulged by hackers in spreadsheets published to the world, are nevertheless known to God.  

 

For me, now is the time for humility.  For prayer.  For a renewed desire to repent.  For a renewed desire to live righteously, and to help and persuade others to do so.  Because at the end of the day, "there but for the grace of God go I."

 

Thanks,

 

-Smac

Edited August 22, 2015 by smac97

[MorningStar]

I don't understand it.  If you're so miserable in your marriage that you're going to intentionally plan to commit adultery, just get divorced!  I have more sympathy for people who unintentionally develop feelings for others.  Or how many of these people are "swingers" and their spouses don't care.