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Generalizations About Mormons Extracted From Utah Statistics


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I don't put much stock in most of these types of articles.  My own home town just came up on a list of 50 best places to live, and my first thought was, "what did they determine that based on?"

 

I think sethpayne actually has searched through the records/Database for his numbers (for those who joined this website and his stats).

Edited by ALarson
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OK.  First off -- I am NOT a Database Admin so there is always a chance my number is off.  But I am showing ~220,000 registered members who gave Utah Zip codes.

I should look at this stuff. I mess around with data and databases all day. I could even geo code the data.

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While I agree we can't draw too many firm conclusions about Mormonism taken directly from Utah statistics, I think it would be a mistake to act like there is no relationship at all.

 

You are not comparing the same thing with your numbers. (15 million total members versus 3 million ACTIVE Utah Mormons)

We don't know exact activity rates because the church doesn't release that info, however, earlier in the year an article slipped through the DN for a few hours listing the rate at @35%.

 

IF that's accurate we would then be looking 3 million active Utah Mormons against 5.25 million worldwide active mormons, thus making the relationship stronger. In other words, Utah would account for 57% of all active Mormons worldwide. I think that shows Utah is still significant culturally when considering active Mormons.

 

3mm is the entire population of Utah.

 

So the number of active LDS in Utah according to our shared stats is.

 

3,000,000 x .58 (self identified Mormons) x .35 (activity rate) = 525,000

 

Compared to a worldwide rate of 15mm x .35 (assuming a similar rate of activity worldwide) = 5,250,000

 

So the percentage of active Utah Mormons compared to worldwide active Mormons would be 1%

 

I'm not sure I buy that either.  Suffice it to say Mormonism is no longer centered in Utah or even the United States, and the culture and behaviors of  Mormons are as widely varied as many other groups.

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Here is the article BD linked:  http://fusion.net/story/185853/the-united-states-of-ashley-madison/

 

I don't see SLC numbers just Utah, so I will revise my calculations.

 

Population of Utah @3,000,000 (2.9mm in 2013)

 

Percentage of Ashley Madison Users .66% (.0066 out of every 1 person)

 

Total AM users in Utah 19,800

 

Percentage of Utahans that are active LDS 58%

 

Statistical likelyhood of the number of active Latter-day Sainst subscribing to AM = 11,000 or .3% of the population of Utah

 

This assumes LDS and non-LDS subscribe to AM at a constant rate.

 

Two observations:  1) 19,000 subscribers to Ashley Madison is a hell of a big number of adulterers online.  2) .3% of anything is a very insignificant trend for a general population.

 

Interesting.  As I say, the data I have shows over 200k in Utah but perhaps that is because this article is referring to the CC transactions and I'm looking at user profile data.  And actually, I did see a few times where it looks like the same person had multiple accounts ....  

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Interesting.  As I say, the data I have shows over 200k in Utah but perhaps that is because this article is referring to the CC transactions and I'm looking at user profile data.  And actually, I did see a few times where it looks like the same person had multiple accounts ....  

Kind of like Josh Duggar did? 

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I think sethpayne actually has searched through the records/Database for his numbers (for those who joined this website and his stats).

 

Yes.  And his numbers are probably the best at finding out where the credit cards are billed to.  

 

However- unlike the OP of the original thread on Marriage and Utah there are absolutely no statistics from the leaked data that can determine the activity rate, religion, or stance on gay marriage of those subscribing to Ashley Madison.  Certainly not enough to draw a conclusion that there is a smell of hypocrisy coming from Utah on the definition of marriage or fidelity. 

Edited by KevinG
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I think sethpayne actually has searched through the records/Database for his numbers (for those who joined this website and his stats).

 

Indeed.  I have a local copy of the AM member profile data that was posted online.   Without knowing how anyone else is pulling the data -- like are they using the CC transaction records and trying to tie those to users -- it is impossible to know why the numbers vary so much.

 

But as one tech writer said, it looks like this database was designed by a bunch of CS 101 students.

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Yes.  And his numbers are probably the best at finding out where the credit cards are billed to.  

 

 

I have purposely not tried to do that kind of match up.  My technical database skills aren't' quite up to it.  What I'm reporting on is the profile data entered by users.

 

Those folks using the CC transaction data -- data I have NOT touched -- are likely to get a better sense of how many folks paid for and continued to use the site.  Take my numbers with a grain of salt ... the queries look good to me but I could have something horked up.

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I should look at this stuff. I mess around with data and databases all day. I could even geo code the data.

 

Mola -- if you are a data geek like me then you would have a blast.

 

PM me if you are interested in some scripts I used to import the MySQL data dumps.  I can even share with you some of the JOIN queries I used to check the data.  Would be really interesting to see if you get teh same results that I do.

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From the article itself:

 

 

So, we took the over-18 populations of the 50 states and the District of Columbia and divided our number of Ashley Madison people by the total adult population of each state to arrive at a per-capita number. FWIW, there turned out to be roughly 5.6 payments per person in the data with some variation between states (min: 4.9, max: 6.5).

Having seen a lot of this data first hand, I would not say this is the cleanest data set in the world. We know a few sources of error. 

 

http://fusion.net/story/185853/the-united-states-of-ashley-madison/

 

It is very difficult drawing sociological conclusions from data like this. 

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I have purposely not tried to do that kind of match up.  My technical database skills aren't' quite up to it.  What I'm reporting on is the profile data entered by users.

 

Those folks using the CC transaction data -- data I have NOT touched -- are likely to get a better sense of how many folks paid for and continued to use the site.  Take my numbers with a grain of salt ... the queries look good to me but I could have something horked up.

What are you using to look at the data?

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3mm is the entire population of Utah.

 

So the number of active LDS in Utah according to our shared stats is.

 

3,000,000 x .58 (self identified Mormons) x .35 (activity rate) = 525,000

 

Compared to a worldwide rate of 15mm x .35 (assuming a similar rate of activity worldwide) = 5,250,000

 

So the percentage of active Utah Mormons compared to worldwide active Mormons would be 1%

 

I'm not sure I buy that either.  Suffice it to say Mormonism is no longer centered in Utah or even the United States, and the culture and behaviors of  Mormons are as widely varied as many other groups.

Thanks for correcting my incorrect starting population. That makes a HUGE difference.

 

Is anyone else shocked that there may only be 525,000 active mormons in Utah? That can't be right, can it? Shouldn't we expect the activation rate to be higher in Utah than other places, like, say...the Phillipines?

Edited by HappyJackWagon
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For comparison -- there are ~66k member profiles that list "Seattle" as their city.  Seattle has a population of about 650k.

 

My bank card records indicate I have purchased sneakers from New Jersey.  But having never been to New Jersey or purchased sneakers from New Jersey, I reported it as a fraudulent transaction.

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Mola -- if you are a data geek like me then you would have a blast.

 

PM me if you are interested in some scripts I used to import the MySQL data dumps.  I can even share with you some of the JOIN queries I used to check the data.  Would be really interesting to see if you get teh same results that I do.

I would just dump it into access but you could or should get the same results. I need to see if I can find time to look at though.

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My bank card records indicate I have purchased sneakers from New Jersey.  But having never been to New Jersey or purchased sneakers from New Jersey, I reported it as a fraudulent transaction.

I'm not sure why this is relevant (?)  Didn't sethpayne state he didn't get into the credit card records for his stats here?

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A city near me with a population of just over a million, has just over 100,000 subscribers. That's one in 10.Then again, Sao Paolo has the most subscribers with about 350,000 and a population around 10 million  or about one in 30 . An interesting stat is the gender ratio .

Edited by strappinglad
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Thanks for correcting my incorrect starting population. That makes a HUGE difference.

 

Is anyone else shocked that there may only be 525,000 active mormons in Utah?

 

That is why I don't trust the data based on the articles you and I have cited.  I'm guessing that extrapolating general trends from these types of incomplete data creates very inaccurate pictures.

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I'm not sure why this is relevant (?)  Didn't sethpayne state he didn't get into the credit card records for his stats here?

 

Gift cards or fraudulent transactions would skew the city data.

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A city near me with a population of just over a million, has just over 100,000 subscribers. That's one in 10.

 

Subscriptions (registrations on the system) or subscribers (people using the service)?

 

That will make a big difference.

 

I just had a horrible thought.  What if we find out the activity rate and population of Ashley Madison paid subscribers is higher than that of the LDS Church in Utah!?!  :shok:

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In the article?  I can see that.

 

But not the numbers that sethpayne has found as he's not using CC info.

 

I am officially lost then.

 

Carry on without me!   :search:   (I'm interested in finding out what Seth divines from the data.)

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I am officially lost then.

 

Carry on without me!   :search:   (I'm interested in finding out what Seth divines from the data.)

Well, I only know sethpayne stated that he's not using credit card info that was given.  Other than that, I'm lost right there with you :)

 

It will be interesting to see what both sethpayne and Mola Ram find.

Edited by ALarson
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