cinepro Posted January 11, 2015 Posted January 11, 2015 I think the math in my post about the surge was off. The "surge" would technically be the increase in numbers when new, younger missionaries are overlapping the numbers of regular missionaries who were already serving. Once the overlap is gone, then all the missionaries are "new" missionaries who were called after the age change and the bump caused by this overlap would be over. In other words, if there were 50,000 missionaries serving in 10/12 when the change was announced, and only one person chose to leave early in that month (10/12) and the rest of the missionaries (men and women) decided to serve their missions at 19 and 21 as usual, then that would be a surge of "1". But by 10/14, every missionary serving in 10/12 would be home, and that one missionary would still be serving but he would have been out there anyway by then. So by 10/14, the increase from "overlap" would be over, but you would see an increase in real numbers from more elders choosing to go, and way more sisters choosing to go. Like my relative here. I'm pretty sure it's hot chocolate...
Thinking Posted January 11, 2015 Posted January 11, 2015 (edited) But looking at convert baptism rates alone is a rather narrow metric. Suppose the global influence of the devil (as prophesied in the vision shown to Nephi) has grown so intense that a greatly expanded missionary force is necessary just to hold the covert rate steady. In that event, the expansion of the missionary force would not have been a failure. And more often than in the past, today's missionaries are being used to rescue and reactivate those who have fallen away. Not to be neglected is the converting influence that missionary service has on the missionary himself or herself. If fewer young people end up falling away because they are involved earlier in full-time service to God, that would be a huge blessing. If the numbers are good, shout them from the rooftops. If not, create some unmeasurable, unverifiable situation that somehow makes them good. Edited January 12, 2015 by Thinking 1
Hamba Tuhan Posted January 11, 2015 Posted January 11, 2015 (edited) At least in my opinion and in my experience. How often do you go on splits with your missionaries? I've been serving as the WML in my ward for nearly 15 months now. We have three sets of missionaries in our small ward, four Elders and two Sisters. I spend 15-20 hours per week on splits with our Elders, and I work closely with our Sisters as well, including teaching alongside them. For what it may be worth, almost nothing you have written in this thread about missionaries or missionary work sounds familiar to me. I'm starting to think that we operate in parallel universes. Edited January 12, 2015 by Hamba Tuhan
rongo Posted January 12, 2015 Posted January 12, 2015 Aren't you in the south Pacific, Hamba? I've said several times that I think that my concerns apply much, much more to North America than to other parts of the world. I think, by nature, many other parts of the world don't lend themselves to a coddled, "protected" treatment of missionaries.
stemelbow Posted January 12, 2015 Posted January 12, 2015 I think the math in my post about the surge was off. The "surge" would technically be the increase in numbers when new, younger missionaries are overlapping the numbers of regular missionaries who were already serving. Once the overlap is gone, then all the missionaries are "new" missionaries who were called after the age change and the bump caused by this overlap would be over. In other words, if there were 50,000 missionaries serving in 10/12 when the change was announced, and only one person chose to leave early in that month (10/12) and the rest of the missionaries (men and women) decided to serve their missions at 19 and 21 as usual, then that would be a surge of "1". But by 10/14, every missionary serving in 10/12 would be home, and that one missionary would still be serving but he would have been out there anyway by then. So by 10/14, the increase from "overlap" would be over, but you would see an increase in real numbers from more elders choosing to go, and way more sisters choosing to go. Like my relative here. I'm pretty sure it's hot chocolate... I"d say you're probably still off. Some kids at 18 in 10/12 were probably still planning to go at 19. They may have been enrolled in school and had planned to finish one year of school. So if there were 50,000 in 10/12, these were all be home by now, sure, but if the number we have today includes many who left when they were 18 and 19, then we may still have some overlap. all the 18 year olds and soon to be 19 year olds in 10/12 could represent two groupings, but many could have left together--not really starting their missions until 2013. The 18 year old that left in 2013 and 14 could be going out with many a 19 year old who went forward with their previous plan, like finishing a year of school. It's like the number that started per year could have been doubled in 2013 over what left in 2011, for instance. and we might not see the number even out until later 2015. Even out, though, most likely won't happen. Some boys who might not have left at 19 might have gone at 18. And it seems likely that the number of girls going has increased. So we may still see a pretty good increase. I just don't think we'll be able to know that increase until a little more down the road.
Scott Lloyd Posted January 12, 2015 Author Posted January 12, 2015 If the numbers are good, shout them from the rooftops. If not, create some unmeasurable, unverifiable situation that somehow makes them good.Do you have a vested interest in the "numbers" not being "good"? 1
Duncan Posted January 12, 2015 Posted January 12, 2015 (edited) One thing i'm seeing is people older than 18, 19 are going on missions. They didn't go earlier and all of them have been fantastic!!!!! they are more mature, know what they are getting into and are just great people. 2013 was a mess for this mission, our ward sent home more missionaries than people we baptized, but this year was much better! Edited January 12, 2015 by Duncan
Scott Lloyd Posted January 12, 2015 Author Posted January 12, 2015 I"d say you're probably still off. Some kids at 18 in 10/12 were probably still planning to go at 19. They may have been enrolled in school and had planned to finish one year of school. So if there were 50,000 in 10/12, these were all be home by now, sure, but if the number we have today includes many who left when they were 18 and 19, then we may still have some overlap. all the 18 year olds and soon to be 19 year olds in 10/12 could represent two groupings, but many could have left together--not really starting their missions until 2013. The 18 year old that left in 2013 and 14 could be going out with many a 19 year old who went forward with their previous plan, like finishing a year of school. It's like the number that started per year could have been doubled in 2013 over what left in 2011, for instance. and we might not see the number even out until later 2015. Even out, though, most likely won't happen. Some boys who might not have left at 19 might have gone at 18. And it seems likely that the number of girls going has increased. So we may still see a pretty good increase. I just don't think we'll be able to know that increase until a little more down the road.Again, the impression I got from Elder Evans is that the numbers are ahead of earlier projections for this point in time. I assume they've taken all these factors into account. The Missionary Department is staffed with professionals, and they've been at this for a long time. 1
Scott Lloyd Posted January 12, 2015 Author Posted January 12, 2015 (edited) Also, in my observation at least, many young people who come from areas with a large LDS population are not challenged in some aspects of their faith until their mission. Many don't have the desire to learn historical and other criticisms of the church until they are on their missions. The problem is they are restricted in what resources they can access to learn and alleviate concerns.Why would their coming "from areas with a large LDS population" affect their being challenged in their faith or "their desire to learn historical and other criticisms of the Church"? And what would it have to do with their being "restricted in what resources they can access to learn and alleviate concerns"? If anything, I would say the opposite would be the case: a greater Church presence equates to more readily accessible information from both Church and non-Church sources. I live in an area that probably has the largest concentration of LDS population in the world and can tell you from that perspective that we don't typically restrict our young people's access to information. I see some regional prejudice and conclusion-jumping underlying your post. Edited January 12, 2015 by Scott Lloyd
Scott Lloyd Posted January 12, 2015 Author Posted January 12, 2015 One thing i'm seeing is people older than 18, 19 are going on missions. They didn't go earlier and all of them have been fantastic!!!!! they are more mature, know what they are getting into and are just great people. 2013 was a mess for this mission, our ward sent home more missionaries than people we baptized, but this year was much better!Interesting observation. Perhaps there is a momentum factor affecting not just 18- and 19-year-olds.
Duncan Posted January 12, 2015 Posted January 12, 2015 Interesting observation. Perhaps there is a momentum factor affecting not just 18- and 19-year-olds. yeah! I hope we get more! we need more sisters!!!! and senior couples!
stemelbow Posted January 12, 2015 Posted January 12, 2015 Again, the impression I got from Elder Evans is that the numbers are ahead of earlier projections for this point in time. I assume they've taken all these factors into account. The Missionary Department is staffed with professionals, and they've been at this for a long time. That's fine. I was just trying to respond to Cinepro. Indeed, we certainly could be missing things that they in the know are seeing. Just commenting. No offense.
Scott Lloyd Posted January 12, 2015 Author Posted January 12, 2015 That's fine. I was just trying to respond to Cinepro.Indeed, we certainly could be missing things that they in the know are seeing. Just commenting. No offense.No offense taken. I just wanted to clarify my position.
rongo Posted January 13, 2015 Posted January 13, 2015 Scott Lloyd wrote: Interesting observation. Perhaps there is a momentum factor affecting not just 18- and 19-year-olds. I think that there has been a motivating effect on all young people, not just the 18-19 year-olds. I think we now have more people on missions, not just people caught up in the euphoria of the announcement. I think we all (well, not the apostates or those who wish the Church ill) agree that that is a very good thing. I just wish we were having them in North America do traditional missionary "work" ("It's not missionary work, it's missionary fun!") . . .
Duncan Posted January 13, 2015 Posted January 13, 2015 Scott Lloyd wrote: I think that there has been a motivating effect on all young people, not just the 18-19 year-olds. I think we now have more people on missions, not just people caught up in the euphoria of the announcement. I think we all (well, not the apostates or those who wish the Church ill) agree that that is a very good thing. I just wish we were having them in North America do traditional missionary "work" ("It's not missionary work, it's missionary fun!") . . . FWIW our sister missionaries tracted for 7 hours on saturday, didn't get in anywhere but they did it! and it was freeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeezing outside too! 1
readstoomuch Posted January 13, 2015 Posted January 13, 2015 Not every where in the world has a shortage of people to teach. Places like Boise, Spokane, Phoenix and focal areas in the United States (especially the West) may have 2-6 missionaries in very small ward boundaries. Amen to those that are busy and requesting more help. I just hope that all of the missionaries or as many as possible can have a positive experience. If they don`t it may not go well for them in the future. Another observation. Missionaries going out now are not as tough physically or emotionally as they seemed when I went out thirty plus years ago. I think that would go for the kids in this generation in general. Lds or non-Lds. We have worked with our missionaries about eye contact and callling on the phone. They love to text, just like my kids, but they don`t always have good phone skills. I think one of the reasons that they are going home more often, is that they have health insurance and go to the doctor more often. We often asked to drive them to doctors appts. We couldn`t afford to go to the doctor when I was a missionary. You had to be really sick. The more often you go to the doctor, the more likely they find something that you may need to go home for. 1
Paddy Posted January 13, 2015 Posted January 13, 2015 (edited) Why would their coming "from areas with a large LDS population" affect their being challenged in their faith or "their desire to learn historical and other criticisms of the Church"? And what would it have to do with their being "restricted in what resources they can access to learn and alleviate concerns"? If anything, I would say the opposite would be the case: a greater Church presence equates to more readily accessible information from both Church and non-Church sources.I live in an area that probably has the largest concentration of LDS population in the world and can tell you from that perspective that we don't typically restrict our young people's access to information.I see some regional prejudice and conclusion-jumping underlying your post.Just to clarify. I was speaking about access to information while on their missions, not prior to or after their missions. Edited January 13, 2015 by Paddy
Hamba Tuhan Posted January 13, 2015 Posted January 13, 2015 (edited) I've said several times that I think that my concerns apply much, much more to North America than to other parts of the world. I think, by nature, many other parts of the world don't lend themselves to a coddled, "protected" treatment of missionaries. I just don't see any inherent differences. Regarding missionaries, three of the six currently serving in our ward are Americans. Regarding the work, when I was released from the bishopric to serve as WML nearly 15 months ago, the training materials I accessed were those on lds.org. We are trying our best to implement what the Apostles have asked all Saints around the world to do. I just wish we were having them in North America do traditional missionary "work" ("It's not missionary work, it's missionary fun!") . . . In 2012, two converts were baptised in our ward. In 2013, six converts were baptised in our ward. In 2014, 11 converts were baptised in our ward. So far this year we already have two baptismal dates set. You can keep your traditions; I'd rather see the work actually hasten. By the way, missionary work done the Lord's way is genuinely fun -- for missionaries, for members, for non-member friends, for investigators, and for those who become new members. I love hearing men stand up in priesthood opening exercises each Sunday and happily report how much they enjoyed, for example, having their non-member friends around during the week for a FHE with the missionaries. Ironically, it often takes missionaries newly assigned to our ward some time to adjust to having a ward that's actually trying to follow the directions the Apostles have given us. We've actually had some push-back on occasion because the missionaries are so used to having to do everything on their own, and they initially find it hard to have members setting up appointments for them and telling them where/when they are needed. Then they see what we can accomplish by working in unity, and they're ready to be 'coddled'! Edited January 13, 2015 by Hamba Tuhan 3
rongo Posted January 13, 2015 Posted January 13, 2015 FWIW our sister missionaries tracted for 7 hours on saturday, didn't get in anywhere but they did it! and it was freeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeezing outside too!That sometimes happens. We often got let in when it was really hot (can we get you something to drink?) or really cold (unless they didn't want to let the cold in), even when the people had no interest. Made me appreciate hospitality and the good that is in people, even when not interested. Duncan, do your missionaries randomly knock on doors, or do they keep records? We prayerfully chose areas and "doored them out" (morning, afternoon, evening) to try to get as many as possible.
Tacenda Posted January 13, 2015 Posted January 13, 2015 I feel sad knowing I'll not get to go on a mission. Like Hamba said, a mission can be fun. I've never lived anywhere other than Utah and have always wanted to experience that. The opportunity to serve and get to know people from different faiths or walks of life sounds so interesting. But I blew it, not to make this about me though. Just sad about it.
Hamba Tuhan Posted January 13, 2015 Posted January 13, 2015 I feel sad knowing I'll not get to go on a mission. Like Hamba said, a mission can be fun. If you wish to experience the real fun of being a missionary, you can do it where you are, right now. If you don't know how to get started and would appreciate some tips, let me know.
Tacenda Posted January 13, 2015 Posted January 13, 2015 If you wish to experience the real fun of being a missionary, you can do it where you are, right now. If you don't know how to get started and would appreciate some tips, let me know.Which is probably why I should not want to be a missionary for the wrong reasons.
Duncan Posted January 13, 2015 Posted January 13, 2015 That sometimes happens. We often got let in when it was really hot (can we get you something to drink?) or really cold (unless they didn't want to let the cold in), even when the people had no interest. Made me appreciate hospitality and the good that is in people, even when not interested. Duncan, do your missionaries randomly knock on doors, or do they keep records? We prayerfully chose areas and "doored them out" (morning, afternoon, evening) to try to get as many as possible. yeah, they keep records, they said they warm up in their cars but I don't know what time they went out. i did that too, after being rejected at the door in the 5th level of for heat we simply asked for water and a lot of people just gave it to us!
Hamba Tuhan Posted January 13, 2015 Posted January 13, 2015 Which is probably why I should not want to be a missionary for the wrong reasons. Not when there are so many excellent right reasons. It was my privilege this past Sunday to officiate at the sacrament table alongside a good brother who was baptised the last Sunday in December. He's been married to a member for the past 20 years but hadn't really shown any interest until about a year ago when their home teacher (called a few months later as our bishop) started taking missionaries with him to visit this family. Even then the situation was not straightforward, and occasional bursts of 'Yes, I'm interested enough to listen' often disintegrated into 'No thanks, this isn't really a good time for me'. Finally he started having the lessons in earnest around October, and Bishop and I took turns attending. Still, nothing really seemed to click for him. Bishop and the Elders met with him before church three Sundays ago and told him that we'd be ready for him whenever he might be ready to take a leap of faith, even if it was that afternoon. After sacrament meeting later that day, I saw him make his way to the front of the chapel to chat with Bishop. Bishop then grabbed me and asked, 'Can we realistically have a baptismal service ready for 5:00 today?' I said yes and started filling the font, securing white clothing, etc. We were actually half an hour late due to clothing issues, but it was my privilege that afternoon to stand in waist-deep water, raise my arm to the square ... and completely choke up as the gratitude for being a part of such miracles surged through my soul. Monday last week we had a funeral in our ward, and the wife of this new member both attended and then helped with the tea held back at the chapel after the burial. Near the end of the clean-up, I overheard her speaking with her home teacher/bishop about how completely changed her husband now is and how much that change has altered the situation in their home, bringing a peace and strength and sweetness that she'd never before imagined despite his always being such a good and kind man. Good stuff! 2
Thinking Posted January 13, 2015 Posted January 13, 2015 Do you have a vested interest in the "numbers" not being "good"? No. I'm just pointing out a pattern that I sometimes see from apologists.
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