We've ruined childhood and parenting. I suggest we factor that into falling birth rates and youth mental health issues.

[Robert F. Smith]

On 5/27/2025 at 11:21 AM, The Nehor said:

The excellent mental health facilities of the 1970s and 1980s that Reagan shut down? I don’t think I would describe those as “excellent”.

California now has the largest homeless population in America.  187,000 in 2024.  $24billion was spent on them in the last 5 years, and the problem has only grown.

On 5/27/2025 at 11:21 AM, The Nehor said:

I am not denying there is a problem with a lack of access to mental health care but wanting back the asylums of the past is silly.

I know of no one who is calling for a return to Arkham Asylum.  

On 5/27/2025 at 11:21 AM, The Nehor said:

The Hutterite growth rate is pretty marginal.

Yeh.  The Hutterites used to have 10 kids per family.  Now they have only 5.  They have good, modern schools (like Utahns), and manage their farms with modern tech.  When a community grows too large, they split in half, buy land and continue to operate.  They continue to grow in the USA and Canada.  Mental health problems among them are quite rare.

On 5/27/2025 at 11:21 AM, The Nehor said:

Commissars? What?

The Marxist ruling class in California, Oregon, and Washington.

[Calm]

2 hours ago, Robert F. Smith said:

Elitists often pooh pooh threats with statistical arguments that claim rarity. 

Who is claiming rarity  for human trafficking in this thread?

[The Nehor]

4 hours ago, Robert F. Smith said:

California now has the largest homeless population in America.  187,000 in 2024.  $24billion was spent on them in the last 5 years, and the problem has only grown.

How about coming up with a way to get them homes?

4 hours ago, Robert F. Smith said:

I know of no one who is calling for a return to Arkham Asylum.  

I am, that was a good game.

4 hours ago, Robert F. Smith said:

Yeh.  The Hutterites used to have 10 kids per family.  Now they have only 5.  They have good, modern schools (like Utahns), and manage their farms with modern tech.  When a community grows too large, they split in half, buy land and continue to operate.  They continue to grow in the USA and Canada.  Mental health problems among them are quite rare.

Insular communities are good at hiding mental health problems.

4 hours ago, Robert F. Smith said:

The Marxist ruling class in California, Oregon, and Washington.

Praising the authoritarian Christian co-ops and complaining that everyone you dislike is a secret commie? Ummmm…..okay.

[The Nehor]

5 hours ago, Robert F. Smith said:

79,000 minors being trafficked currently in Texas is not a small number.

Elitists often pooh pooh threats with statistical arguments that claim rarity.  Police take the same view, and even refuse to take a missing child report until a reasonable period has gone by.  Why?  Because runaways are so common.  In practice that does save precious resources, but it also means that crucial time is lost in recovering an actual abductee.  In one case, the parents had the mans to hire a private investigator who specialized in missing/abducted children, and he was able to recover the child within two weeks by monitoring online prostitution sites (which had photos).  The police didn't have the resources.

I didn’t say the numbers of minors being trafficked are low. I said that abduction is rarely used to acquire human trafficking victims. You don’t combat human trafficking by being paranoid about abductions. Using physical force is rare. Psychological manipulation is the favored method.

I remember that case. It was exceptional. Not normal. A lot of trafficking is done by the minor’s own family. They often come from marginalized communities. They are often manipulated into it.

It would be nice to believe that the average human trafficking victim is a white upper-middle class teenager with loving parents. Catch the bad guy, free the teen, problem solved. There is a reason you can remember that case. It got reported on and not because it was typical.

Tim Ballard’s special forces photo ops provide a nice solution for this rare type but it just almost never happens. Dealing with the reality of human trafficking is much messier and a real effort to end it would require us to confront flaws within our own society and try to fix them.

So no, convincing people their kids are likely to be abducted is spreading paranoia. Yeah, it might happen. It does occasionally. The vast majority of trafficking and kidnapping of minors involve people the victim knows, often family.

[Benjamin McGuire]

12 hours ago, Robert F. Smith said:

Elitists often pooh pooh threats with statistical arguments that claim rarity.  Police take the same view, and even refuse to take a missing child report until a reasonable period has gone by.  Why?  Because runaways are so common.  In practice that does save precious resources, but it also means that crucial time is lost in recovering an actual abductee.  In one case, the parents had the mans to hire a private investigator who specialized in missing/abducted children, and he was able to recover the child within two weeks by monitoring online prostitution sites (which had photos).  The police didn't have the resources.

You seem to be missing the argument.

It isn't that there aren't a lot of human trafficking cases. It's that most children who are pushed into this are pushed into this by people they know. The myth isn't that children are trafficked - the myth is that these children are mostly abducted - picked up off the streets at random. This is the myth that you seem to keep pushing. This doesn't mean that there aren't actual abductions - just they they are the exceptions.

[Amulek]

13 hours ago, Robert F. Smith said:

79,000 minors being trafficked currently in Texas is not a small number.

According to the March of Dimes, the population of children under the age of 20 in Texas in 2023 was 8,408,601. 

While I would love for that 79K number to be smaller, it's still just a fraction of a percent (0.94% to be precise). 

And I agree with what @The Nehor is saying about the likelihood of abductions - that's just not how most trafficking takes place. People aren't circling the malls in panel vans looking for unsuspecting kids / teens.

It's more likely to be something like the older boyfriend who says he's in love with a girl, and they just need a little money to get out of town - away from their parents so they can finally just be together - only they don't have enough money, but he knows a friend who is willing to give them some cash if she just does this one thing, this one time...

 

[Robert F. Smith]

19 hours ago, Calm said:

Who is claiming rarity  for human trafficking in this thread?

The Nehor, of course.

[Calm]

4 minutes ago, Robert F. Smith said:

The Nehor, of course.

No, he was saying stranger abductions are rare, not the more typical forms of human trafficking (such as runaways hooking up with predators, young women and young men for that matter being pimped out by their supposed older ‘significant other’, or even family members selling their kids).

Nehor:

Quote

 

The child abduction and satanic panic (with the fear of child sacrifice or sex slavery) were blown out of all proportion by bad actors. The solution isn’t to indulge those who fell for it. It is to correct the misperceptions.

Abduction meaning grabbed off the street or out of their bedroom, I am thinking since he was earlier referring to “stranger danger”

Nehor:

Quote

Most human trafficking doesn’t involve child abductees…. how (white) children were being abducted and trafficked by sexual predators

 

[Robert F. Smith]

16 hours ago, The Nehor said:

How about coming up with a way to get them homes?

Good idea, and that is the first thing that the most successful countries do.  Finland is an excellent example:

Quote

Finland provides them with permanent rental housing immediately. This is followed by wrap-around support, including mental health services, substance abuse programs, and job training, as needed. The logic is that having a stable home provides a foundation for individuals to address other underlying issues.

Unfortunately, the Commissariat of California only pretends to do that, and glories in a growing problem.  The Oligopoly makes plenty of money off this approach.

16 hours ago, The Nehor said:

...............................

Insular communities are good at hiding mental health problems.

A loving community is a wonderful way to keep from developing problems in the first place, and providing friendly hearts to listen and care when needed.

16 hours ago, The Nehor said:

Praising the authoritarian Christian co-ops and complaining that everyone you dislike is a secret commie? Ummmm…..okay.

More like creating and cultivating chaos, while destroying the Constitution.  Pol Pot loved that approach.

[Robert F. Smith]

16 hours ago, The Nehor said:

I didn’t say the numbers of minors being trafficked are low. I said that abduction is rarely used to acquire human trafficking victims. You don’t combat human trafficking by being paranoid about abductions. Using physical force is rare. Psychological manipulation is the favored method.

I remember that case. It was exceptional. Not normal. A lot of trafficking is done by the minor’s own family. They often come from marginalized communities. They are often manipulated into it.

It would be nice to believe that the average human trafficking victim is a white upper-middle class teenager with loving parents. Catch the bad guy, free the teen, problem solved. There is a reason you can remember that case. It got reported on and not because it was typical.

Tim Ballard’s special forces photo ops provide a nice solution for this rare type but it just almost never happens. Dealing with the reality of human trafficking is much messier and a real effort to end it would require us to confront flaws within our own society and try to fix them.

So no, convincing people their kids are likely to be abducted is spreading paranoia. Yeah, it might happen. It does occasionally. The vast majority of trafficking and kidnapping of minors involve people the victim knows, often family.

Nonsense.  The racist approach that every discussion must reference "white" is so sad.  Moreover, violence is normal after the psychological manipulation is successful.  And that includes immediate use of drugs on the victim, who is soon addicted and completely vulnerable.  Trafficking is conducted on a massive scale, and the victims are moved frequently.

[Robert F. Smith]

10 hours ago, Benjamin McGuire said:

...................

It isn't that there aren't a lot of human trafficking cases. It's that most children who are pushed into this are pushed into this by people they know. The myth isn't that children are trafficked - the myth is that these children are mostly abducted - picked up off the streets at random. This is the myth that you seem to keep pushing. This doesn't mean that there aren't actual abductions - just they they are the exceptions.

"People they know" may include a predator online.  Otherwise what you are saying is nonsense, and you are doing your own mythmaking, Ben..  Predators wait in various likely places to pick up and befriend runaways -- who soon find out that he or she is no friend.  Pretending the problem doesn't exist doesn't make it go away.

[Robert F. Smith]

8 hours ago, Amulek said:

According to the March of Dimes, the population of children under the age of 20 in Texas in 2023 was 8,408,601. 

While I would love for that 79K number to be smaller, it's still just a fraction of a percent (0.94% to be precise). 

And I agree with what @The Nehor is saying about the likelihood of abductions - that's just not how most trafficking takes place. People aren't circling the malls in panel vans looking for unsuspecting kids / teens.

It's more likely to be something like the older boyfriend who says he's in love with a girl, and they just need a little money to get out of town - away from their parents so they can finally just be together - only they don't have enough money, but he knows a friend who is willing to give them some cash if she just does this one thing, this one time...

Nonsense.  The most common source is runaways spotted by members of trafficking rings.  Moreover, both minors and adults are being trafficked.  Trying to minimize that is exceptionally cruel.  The rates have vastly increased over the years and many lives destroyed.  We need greater awareness, and we need law-enforcement to take it more seriously.  Why?  Because there is a litany of associated crime which needs to be addressed.

[Benjamin McGuire]

2 hours ago, Robert F. Smith said:

"People they know" may include a predator online.  Otherwise what you are saying is nonsense, and you are doing your own mythmaking, Ben..  Predators wait in various likely places to pick up and befriend runaways -- who soon find out that he or she is no friend.  Pretending the problem doesn't exist doesn't make it go away.

No - you are simply wrong on this point Robert. You are just spouting complete nonsense.

Family members or guardians are responsible for 41% of child human trafficking.

14% begin with an intimate partner.

11% begin with 'friends'.

66% of child human trafficking begins with someone well known to the victim.

Now, yes, we can include statistics for those on-line relationships. But - those are (according the research) relationships that last a significant period of time while the victim is being groomed. That is not a random abduction off the street. Those cases are, as I suggested, relatively rare. Now if you think that I am full of it, please, post your references (CFR). I note in passing that last night, I got to listen to the several hour class on recognizing human trafficking that my wife had to take for her social worker license renewal ...

Edited May 30, 2025 by Benjamin McGuire

[The Nehor]

3 hours ago, Robert F. Smith said:

The Nehor, of course.

I was very specific so technically you’re wrong. Also generally wrong.

[Robert F. Smith]

3 hours ago, Benjamin McGuire said:

No - you are simply wrong on this point Robert. You are just spouting complete nonsense.

Family members or guardians are responsible for 41% of child human trafficking.

14% begin with an intimate partner.

11% begin with 'friends'.

66% of child human trafficking begins with someone well known to the victim.

Now, yes, we can include statistics for those on-line relationships. But - those are (according the research) relationships that last a significant period of time while the victim is being groomed. That is not a random abduction off the street. Those cases are, as I suggested, relatively rare. Now if you think that I am full of it, please, post your references (CFR). I note in passing that last night, I got to listen to the several hour class on recognizing human trafficking that my wife had to take for her social worker license renewal ...

I suppose we are now defining people who are known to the victim as groomers, as you agree, which is what Rapha says:  “In the vast majority of instances of child trafficking, the perpetrator knows the child and has won their trust through grooming."  The groomer can be a coach, teacher. clergy, family member, or other predator "well known to the victim."

The stats are going to differ country to country.  In some impovrished areas, for example, labor trafficking, forced marriage, illegal adoption, etc., might be more common, and families far more likely to be involved as perps.

https://rapha.org/blog/understanding-human-trafficking?gad_source=1&gad_campaignid=22048188916&gbraid=0AAAAADkANIX314NlnKs-1TssB2hNLSO-H .

[Robert F. Smith]

3 hours ago, The Nehor said:

I was very specific so technically you’re wrong. Also generally wrong.

Thank you.

[Benjamin McGuire]

6 hours ago, Robert F. Smith said:

I suppose we are now defining people who are known to the victim as groomers, as you agree, which is what Rapha says:  “In the vast majority of instances of child trafficking, the perpetrator knows the child and has won their trust through grooming."  The groomer can be a coach, teacher. clergy, family member, or other predator "well known to the victim."

Sure - but, these are not cases of abduction by strangers. I am still looking for a CFR for your claims. Please provide it.

The issue, at least in this thread, is that it was the hype over massively inflated numbers published in the 1980s. The whole "stranger danger" thing was started following the publication of these numbers - but by the mid-1990s, had already begun to change its messaging because it had become clear that very few abductions came from real strangers. However, the damage had been done - and, as Stephen Dubner suggests in a 2009 blog post:

Quote

Which brings us back to Bruce Pardo and Atif Irfan. The people who didn’t seem to fear Pardo were friends and relatives. The people who did fear Irfan were strangers. And they all got it backward. In general, we fear strangers much more than we should. ... So the next time your brain insists on fearing strangers, try to tell it to cool out a bit. It’s not that you necessarily need to insist that it fear your friends and family instead — unless, of course, you are friends with someone like Bernie Madoff.

We do have information like this:

Quote

On average, fewer than 350 people under the age of 21 have been abducted by strangers in the United States per year since 2010, the FBI says. From 2010 through 2017, the most recent data available, the number has ranged from a low of 303 in 2016 to a high of 384 in 2011 with no clear directional trend.

This isn't just about human trafficking, of course, which would represent a smaller number than this. But, I think it works if we use this as representative. This report placed the number of 'stereotypical' stranger abductions in the US at 105 (more than half were sexually motivated crimes against adolescent girls). The same study showed that number in 1997 was 115, and suggested the difference wasn't statistically significant enough to discuss trends. These numbers suggest that stranger abductions are in fact a rare occurrence. Most of the time, when child trafficking crimes are committed against children, they are aided by some sense of trust between perpetrators and victims, who then leverage that trust to make the victims easier to control. These are US numbers.

But, the damage is done, and in a context where children have an increasing scarcity, parents are less likely to want to take any risks at all.

[Robert F. Smith]

On 5/30/2025 at 5:51 AM, Benjamin McGuire said:

Sure - but, these are not cases of abduction by strangers. I am still looking for a CFR for your claims. Please provide it.

..........................

As soon as you classify 95% of all missing children as runaways (as does Reuters), that automatically classifies them as not abductions, even if they are abducted from some location after they have runaway.  That also conveniently ignores “acquaintances,” whatever that means, since any predator who has groomed his mark online or in his capacity as coach, teacher, etc., automatically becomes an “acquaintance” and not a “stranger.” https://www.missingkids.org/content/dam/missingkids/pdfs/online-enticement-an-analysis-of-missing-children-and-youth-2020-2023.pdf .   Reuters:  https://www.reuters.com/article/world/us/kidnapped-children-make-headlines-but-abduction-is-rare-in-us-idUSKCN1P52BJ/ .

This matters, since “Non-family abductions include kidnappings committed by acquaintances and strangers. Acquaintance abductions make up 27 percent of all child abductions.”
27% of 840,000 missing children each year = 226,800  https://childsafety.losangelescriminallawyer.pro/missing-and-abducted-children.html .

This does not even include the transnational labor & sex trafficking of children across the border into the USA, as discussed by an HHS whistleblower. https://tuzarapost.substack.com/p/the-truth-about-child-abduction-statistics .