Is the Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-day Saints in decline?

[boblloyd91]

Hey while I'm thinking about it, something that I've wondered is how demographics might be a factor in a resurgence in religion in the future. It seems that people who are atheistic and secular have few if any children, whereas conservative religious types have families. I know that Rod Dreher recently noted this on his blog. And of course, LDS are known for large families. This is one possible outcome in regards to what things will look like in the years to come 

[sunstoned]

5 hours ago, boblloyd91 said:

Hey while I'm thinking about it, something that I've wondered is how demographics might be a factor in a resurgence in religion in the future. It seems that people who are atheistic and secular have few if any children, whereas conservative religious types have families. I know that Rod Dreher recently noted this on his blog. And of course, LDS are known for large families. This is one possible outcome in regards to what things will look like in the years to come 

It is all relative.  You are correct that conservative religious types have more children. The fertility rate of Muslims (2.9) and relative to other religious groups are significant factors behind Islam's population growth.  In 2014, Utah's fertility rate was 2.33.

Edited January 31, 2022 by sunstoned

[Hamba Tuhan]

7 hours ago, boblloyd91 said:

Hey while I'm thinking about it, something that I've wondered is how demographics might be a factor in a resurgence in religion in the future.

These projections are based on trends that are six years old and so may have shifted a little, but here is some of what the Pew Forum sees coming by 2050:

• The number of Muslims will nearly equal the number of Christians around the world.
• Atheists, agnostics and other people who do not affiliate with any religion – though increasing in countries such as the United States and France – will make up a declining share of the world’s total population.
• The global Buddhist population will be about the same size it was in 2010, while the Hindu and Jewish populations will be larger than they are today.
• In Europe, Muslims will make up 10% of the overall population.
• India will retain a Hindu majority but also will have the largest Muslim population of any country in the world, surpassing Indonesia.
• In the United States, Christians will decline from more than three-quarters of the population in 2010 to two-thirds in 2050, and Judaism will no longer be the largest non-Christian religion. Muslims will be more numerous in the U.S. than people who identify as Jewish on the basis of religion.
• Four out of every 10 Christians in the world will live in sub-Saharan Africa.

In reference to the second point, when I was teaching for the Anglican Church, our proudly atheist philosophy instructor cornered me in the staff room after work one day and started grilling me about my religious views based on his observation that I prayed over my meals. I answered him honestly, and he said something about how it must be interesting holding to a 'minority position'.

I laughed out loud. I pointed out that the vast majority of the world's population is religious and that the percentage of those who are is actually increasing globally. 'I know it can be hard to see from inside your bubble', I pointed out, 'but you're the one with a minority -- and shrinking -- position'. It appeared he'd never realised that before, and it really bothered him.

Edited January 31, 2022 by Hamba Tuhan

[JustAnAustralian]

28 minutes ago, Hamba Tuhan said:

India will retain a Hindu majority but also will have the largest Muslim population of any country in the world, surpassing Indonesia

I find this one interesting. India is going to become a lot cosier.

[randy]

On 1/17/2022 at 12:16 PM, Teancum said:

 

I posted this in Poptarts thread on the decline of Christianity in general but thought it was worth  thread.

Form an Latter day Saint standpoint this article points out some disturbing trends and even the start of a decline in LDS membership starting in the 2030s.  

What steps can the Church do, if any, to stave this off?  Do you think the top leaders are worried? I think they must be.

Any other thoughts?

 

 

https://www.wherewillyougo.life/mormon-membership-will-begin-decline-by-2030/

 

Some quotes:

  Quote

The rate of growth in the Mormon Church is on a sharp decline (from 6.2% in 1990 to 1.2% in 2018)¹.

 

 

  Quote

 

If we assume that the respective rates for the entire Mormon Church are similar, then the rate at which people are currently leaving the official membership is about 2.9%.

I’m sure that it’s troubling to Mormon leaders that people are leaving Mormonism at double the rate that people are converting to Mormonism.⁶

 

 

 

 

  Quote

 

What the Future Holds

If this trend of slowing over the last 10 years, continues, Mormon membership will peak around the year 2034 and then begin to decline for the first time in modern history.

That means that total membership would look something like this:

 

 

 

  Quote

 

My Prediction: Membership Will Decline Before 2030

I think that several factors are currently in-play that will make membership decline even faster.

• Convert Baptisms Will Decline:
  • People Are More Informed: I expect first-world convert baptisms to continue to decline. Today, educated people are used to doing research on the web before buying a sofa or even dry erase markers. So, most people will do some serious online reconnaissance before changing religions too. When they do, they are likely to discover true and disturbing history that their Mormon friends don’t even know about and are unprepared to address (e.g. Kinderhook plates⁷, the GAEL⁸, BOM witness accounts⁹).
  • Fewer Baseball Baptisms: You’ve probably heard stories about certain Mormon missions where huge numbers of people were baptized who really had no business being baptized. Today, this is commonly referred to as baseball baptisms (probably named after one well-known such event that occurred in England). This happened on my mission in the mid-’90s just before I arrived. From all accounts, it was awful. At that time, missionaries couldn’t call home and were encouraged to write only uplifting things to family. If they wrote to general authorities, their letters were returned to my mission president (who was a vindictive person and the cause of all the problems). Today, however, missionaries have their own phones and they are encouraged to call home once a week. Among other positive things that are sure to come from this, it will most likely reduce the number of baseball baptisms, because word about awful mission presidents will get out quickly.
• Resignations Will Increase:
  • Truth Crisis: The Mormon Church is in the midst of a crisis¹⁰. Many believing Mormons are leaving the Church after learning disturbing history of their own religion¹¹. Most believing Mormons are still completely unaware of this information. I suspect that this will change in the coming years as it becomes more normal to know “apostates” and information becomes more prevalent and difficult to avoid.
  • Doubling Down: I predict that this problem will be exacerbated as Mormon leaders continue to deny that a truth crisis exists — instead telling the world that they are being transparent and honest about their version of history¹². This will only compound the problem when more Mormons learn that this is not the case¹³. Many formerly faithful Mormons report feeling lied-to and deceived by their Mormon leaders, and that this was an important factor in their decision to leave¹⁴.
  • The Unpopular Side of Social Issues: One prominent example that has caused many Mormons to leave their religion behind, is the Church’s stance on homosexuality. They are slowly moving to be more accepting, but for many people, it’s too little, too late. Many Mormons will continue to question their faith until gay Mormons feel like first-class citizens in their own church.
    Another important social issue that’s causing many Mormons to question their faith is Church’s response (or lack thereof) to the spate of Mormon leaders in the news for accusations of sexual abuse.
  • Easy Resignation: Another factor that I predict will increase resignations is that a lot of former Mormons are being counted in the official numbers¹⁵ because they never took the time to remove their records. Removing your records used to be a cumbersome and irritating process. Today, you can do it for free on quitmormon.com in a few minutes. Former Mormons are more likely to resign in the future as they become aware of this resource.
• Fewer Mormon Children: The birth rate — even for Mormons — is on a decline.
• Boomers Will Die: Many baby boomers are senior citizens now, so, many of them will die in the next 10 years. Since they represent a spike in the population, this is likely to increase the death rate slightly.

In other words, I think that Rb will decine, Rc will decline, Rd will increase slightly, and Rr will increase.

 

 

 

  Quote

 

What Does This Mean?

I think that the leadership of the Mormon Church should be in full panic mode because the viability of their Church is being threatened.

Probably nothing can be done to reverse this trend in the short-term, but they can plan for the long-term health of the Church. I think that the only way to do this is to take accountability for their past inaccuracies and commit to complete honesty in the future¹⁶.

Personally, I don’t think there’s any chance they will do this.

I’m very curious to see what impact this will have upon Mormon Church membership numbers in the future.

 

 

 

This trend should be alarming and I agree with the bolded statement above that the LDS leadership is in full panic mode.  I also think long term they are fighting a losing  battle.  The historical issues and truth claims are easily researched and the plethora of problems so readily obvious it is easy for an investigator to do some homework and readily run away from the idea of joining the church. And we already see the church is bleeding many devote, committed, smart and economically well off member because of the almost impossible task of defending the sticky issues. 

Also I think many conservative religions will fall more out of favor over the social issues especially as older members die and younger people who have views contrary to many of the social positions of the the Church and other conservative religions simply opt out.

....and yet here I am, 64 yrs old, family baptized in 1964....married for 48 yrs, 6 grown wonderful kids..and 23 grandbabies.....and I'm still active in the Church!  Dummy me!  Somehow, during all this time...i guess i never cracked a book and researched anything on my own.  Just put my ole blinders on and away I went!   Funny though...I did crack a book,  I did do my own research...and I'm still active in the Church, this in spite of all you enumerated above.  The Church has always, and still brings me joy!  It has blessed me and my family generationally.  I'm sorry your experience hasn't been the same.

[Teancum]

23 minutes ago, randy said:

....and yet here I am, 64 yrs old, family baptized in 1964....married for 48 yrs, 6 grown wonderful kids..and 23 grandbabies.....and I'm still active in the Church!  Dummy me!  Somehow, during all this time...i guess i never cracked a book and researched anything on my own.  Just put my ole blinders on and away I went!   Funny though...I did crack a book,  I did do my own research...and I'm still active in the Church, this in spite of all you enumerated above.  The Church has always, and still brings me joy!  It has blessed me and my family generationally.  I'm sorry your experience hasn't been the same.

Great for you!  And so..... what?  Does that negate that others leave the church and that the church is losing members faster than it has for a long time?

[randy]

14 hours ago, Teancum said:

Great for you!  And so..... what?  Does that negate that others leave the church and that the church is losing members faster than it has for a long time?

No...it simply means what I said,  it has brought me and my family joy and happiness. Thats all...no more or less than that.  As far as the Church gaining or losing members...not sure why you're getting your undies all in a wad over it. People have agency. Let it go man. Folks will make their own choices and live with the blessings or lack thereof.  This isn't rocket science.

[Teancum]

7 hours ago, randy said:

No...it simply means what I said,  it has brought me and my family joy and happiness. Thats all...no more or less than that.  As far as the Church gaining or losing members...not sure why you're getting your undies all in a wad over it. People have agency. Let it go man. Folks will make their own choices and live with the blessings or lack thereof.  This isn't rocket science.

My undies are not in a wad.  

[carbon dioxide]

8 hours ago, randy said:

No...it simply means what I said,  it has brought me and my family joy and happiness. Thats all...no more or less than that.  As far as the Church gaining or losing members...not sure why you're getting your undies all in a wad over it. People have agency. Let it go man. Folks will make their own choices and live with the blessings or lack thereof.  This isn't rocket science.

I think some people think the church will go through constant growth year after year.  Perhaps the church will be like the church among the Nephites.  Periods of growth and decline.  

The pride cycle may work in our day.  When times got good and the people prospered, the people got comfortable and being faithful was not as important.  When the people where forced to be humble whether it be a war or some other disaster, things changed.  The lord prefers the people to come to him willingly.  But compelling them to come out of fear or great need also works.  As we push further into this century, I see great changes happening.  

[JLHPROF]

2 minutes ago, carbon dioxide said:

I think some people think the church will go through constant growth year after year.  Perhaps the church will be like the church among the Nephites.  Periods of growth and decline.  

The pride cycle may work in our day.  When times got good and the people prospered, the people got comfortable and being faithful was not as important.  When the people where forced to be humble whether it be a war or some other disaster, things changed.  The lord prefers the people to come to him willingly.  But compelling them to come out of fear or great need also works.  As we push further into this century, I see great changes happening.  

Prophecies of end time decline due to apostasy are recorded.  Expecting continued exponential growth is a fools errand.

[randy]

13 hours ago, carbon dioxide said:

I think some people think the church will go through constant growth year after year.  Perhaps the church will be like the church among the Nephites.  Periods of growth and decline.  

The pride cycle may work in our day.  When times got good and the people prospered, the people got comfortable and being faithful was not as important.  When the people where forced to be humble whether it be a war or some other disaster, things changed.  The lord prefers the people to come to him willingly.  But compelling them to come out of fear or great need also works.  As we push further into this century, I see great changes happening.  

Amen to that!

[randy]

13 hours ago, JLHPROF said:

Prophecies of end time decline due to apostasy are recorded.  Expecting continued exponential growth is a fools errand.

and hearty double AMEN to that as well!