Covid II: Medical Info and Implications

[Calm]

12 minutes ago, bluebell said:

I thought that Delta was more infection and more severe?  

 More infections mean overall more severe cases, but rare of severity hasn’t been determined yet that I have been able to find…maybe Pogi has?

What I have found says it is at least as severe, but has slightly different symptoms.  

Quote

According to surveys conducted in the U.K., where Delta accounts for ~90% of current COVID-19 cases, symptoms of Delta tend to be a little different than other strains, but that does not necessarily mean the associated symptoms are more severe. Fever, headache, sore throat and runny nose are common, while cough and loss of smell are not. Other reports link Delta to more serious symptoms, including hearing impairment, severe gastrointestinal issues and blood clots leading to tissue death and gangrene. Research is ongoing to determine if Delta infection is associated with increased hospitalization and death. One early study assessing the risk of hospital admission in Scotland reported that hospitalization is twice as likely in unvaccinated individuals with Delta than in unvaccinated individuals with Alpha.  

https://asm.org/Articles/2021/July/How-Dangerous-is-the-Delta-Variant-B-1-617-2
 

also:

Quote

Still, it is difficult to determine whether Delta is actually making people sicker than previous forms of the virus or if it is simply circulating amongst more vulnerable populations where case numbers are high, vaccination rates are low and increased stress on hospital systems is impacting patient care and disease outcomes. 

 

Edited August 4, 2021 by Calm

[pogi]

16 minutes ago, rongo said:

More cases of what, though? I get that Delta variant is much more contagious (something like 1000 x more, akin to chicken pox in terms of infectiousness, is my understanding), but what I've also read is that it is milder (akin to a cold, and sans loss of taste and smell in most people). Why is the thought of children being exposed to Delta variant terrifying?

CFR that it is less severe.  Please don't post hearsay without backing it up on important matters such as this.  It is no wonder parents are not concerned about masks and the Delta variant in schools, based on careless and reckless gossip posting such as yours.

22 minutes ago, rongo said:

Long-term disabilities in children from Covid is being vastly overblown, from what I've read. By orders of magnitude. Children's immune systems, resistance to inflamation complexes, and ability to heal and recover make it not nearly as concerning than in older adults or people with comorbidities. 

Again, more gossip without sources.  I have done the research and studies suggest up to 50% of children can have multiple lingering symptoms form months, some can be disabling.  To avoid confusion again, that is the top range, worst case scenario. Most studies suggest anywhere between 15% to 50%. 

24 minutes ago, rongo said:

I don't think that children getting Covid should be a "run for the hills," bunker mentality issue. 

Straw man.   That is a completely unrelated response, nor is strongly recommending masks for children a "run for the hills" bunker mentality. 

26 minutes ago, rongo said:

There are a ton of articles. That's why I'm surprised you as a nurse are so terrified of your kids getting Delta variant.

If there are a ton of articles which show that the Delta variant is "no higher risk for hospitalization and death as compared to the flu" than it shouldn't be hard for you to post one here.  So far I have seen nothing to answer the CFR.

Who said I was "so terrified".  I wouldn't consider myself terrified in the least.  I do have some anxiety about sending my kids to school without vaccination or mask mandates in place during a giant spike in Delta cases in the state. 

I would be anxious if there was a flu strain as contagious as the delta variant going around with high transmission in my community right before school begins.  Why should I be less anxious with this?  I think you underestimate the flu in kids, even more so the Delta variant. 

 

[Calm]

5 hours ago, pogi said:

I firmly believe the benefit far outweighs any harm or risk of masks. 

What about types of masks?  Are you thinking if enough wear them, the percentage of decent masks will be high enough to make an impact or do you see potential problems if low quality masks are allowed (a lot of the masks I have seen on kids look useless to me for aerosols, given how quickly Delta transmits, seems like low quality masks give false perception of safety and might make things worse, as in parents assuming they work and therefore heading out to grandparents).

I switched to kn95 early on just because of comfort for me, I don’t fiddle with them as much…but I see the pleated disposable masks lots on kids at doctors and they fiddle with those.

[pogi]

12 minutes ago, Calm said:

 More infections mean overall more severe cases, but rare of severity hasn’t been determined yet that I have been able to find…maybe Pogi has?

What I have found says it is at least as severe, but has slightly different symptoms.  

https://asm.org/Articles/2021/July/How-Dangerous-is-the-Delta-Variant-B-1-617-2
 

also:

 

You are right that it is still early in having any really solid data.   However, it is reckless to suggest that it is less severe and that parents shouldn't worry, especially considering the evidence that does suggest it could be more severe. 

This from our very own desseret news:

Quote

 

Kent Sepkowitz, a physician and infection control expert at Memorial Sloan Kettering Cancer Center in New York, wrote for CNN that the biggest issue with the delta variant is how it impacts children.
    •    He said there is new evidence that “children infected by the delta variant may develop a more severe form of the disease compared to illness caused by other forms of the virus.”
    •    Reasons for this include “higher viral loads, something different about how the virus is handled by less mature immune systems, or something else,” he wrote.

In a recent NPR interview, Dr. Rick Barr, who leads the Arkansas Children's Hospital, said that the "Delta variant is acting very, very differently with respect to kids ... just in the month of July, we have [admitted] over 40 to the children's hospital. .. and a number of those have ended up in the intensive care unit."

Sepkowitz isn’t the only expert to suggest this idea. Dr. Rick Barr, one of the leaders at Arkansas Children’s Hospital, told NPR that the delta variant has a different impact on children than other viruses.
    •    “Delta variant is acting very, very differently with respect to kids ... just in the month of July, we have (admitted) over 40 to the children’s hospital ... and a number of those have ended up in the intensive care unit,” he told NPR.

https://www.deseret.com/coronavirus/2021/8/3/22608137/delta-variant-worse-for-kids

 

 

[Calm]

2 hours ago, Rain said:

As a type 1 diabetic and formerly a child type 1 diabetic I get so weary of the arguments that it's only bad for those of us at high risk as if we were throw aways. I get it - that's why I'm more cautious,  but I will really be glad when we get past all this - I'm tired of being part of the "it's only" group.

Amen!

Parent of high risk child here.

[bluebell]

One of my friends just put this on Facebook.  She's an awesome middle aged woman, college educated, and not at all alt-right or extreme in any way.  She's not heavily into oils, or homeschooling, or any of those other things that sometimes lead a person to expect someone to be anti-max or anti-vaccine (not that being interested in any of those things is bad or automatically means someone is crazy).  On Facebook her posts are hardly ever political and very evenhanded and fair.

Quote

 

I am writing to ask you to vote against all vaccine mandates. Vaccine mandates violate fundamental human rights, notably the right to prior, free and informed consent for medical interventions. In a free society, everyone should have complete power and control over their own bodies. I urge you to do all in your power to ensure a return to the democratic principles upon which this country was founded.

Should employers/schools be able to mandate a medical procedure to their employees and then not pay for an injury should it happen? Though vaccines injure and fail in real-world conditions, legislation passed in 1986 left U.S. children and adults with a striking absence of legal protections from vaccine injury. Therefore, if any school or employer mandates vaccinations, citizens have no recourse to recoup lost wages or pay for medical bills. Why expect people to take on all of the risk of injury and lost wages when vaccine manufacturers don’t back their products? And especially when the chances of survival from COVID is 98.23% for adults and even higher for children at 99.985%.

President Biden’s announcement last week of coercive measures to vaccinate government workers and others including children was a red flag to all who value freedom. Not only is his plan a violation of our Constitution, it also violates the Nuremberg Code, designed to ensure informed consent for any medical procedure upon humans.

It’s time to end the use of COVID-19 as a pretext for governmental coercion and mandates. The public is waking up to the cascading negative impacts upon society from elected officials wielding unprecedented power over the citizens of this country. As your constituent, I urge that you:

-- Do not support any legislation or directive coercing people or mandating medical interventions--including vaccines

-- Do not support any legislation or directive requiring people to wear masks

-- Do not support any legislation or directive that deprives people of the right to congregate

-- Do not support any legislation or directive establishing lockdowns

-- Do not support any legislation where employers can enact coercive tactics to overrule a person’s rights to body autonomy

Most importantly, I ask that you defend our Constitution as you swore under oath to do when you took office. President Biden said that 164 million American adults have received the COVID vaccine. With 333 million adults in the U.S.,that means over 50% of people in America have not gotten the vaccine. This group is becoming a substantial voting block guaranteed to be paying attention to the actions of all elected officials.

No healthy adult or child should be injured or die from a vaccine imposed upon them by their government. As an elected official, you realize that the next election cycle is always right around the corner. Your constituents will be watching closely to see what actions you take and don’t take in the coming weeks.

 

I'm posting it not to address what it says (I pretty sure she didn't personally write it), but to show that these are the kinds of people that are fighting against masks and vaccines.  They aren't all fringe, extremist types.  They are regular people and they are actively campaigning against those things.  

If they are the minority, it's not be very much.

[Calm]

1 minute ago, pogi said:

However, it is reckless to suggest that it is less severe and that parents shouldn't worry, especially considering the evidence that does suggest it could be more severe. 

So agree.

[pogi]

7 minutes ago, Calm said:

What about types of masks?  Are you thinking if enough wear them, the percentage of decent masks will be high enough to make an impact or do you see potential problems if low quality masks are allowed (a lot of the masks I have seen on kids look useless to me for aerosols, given how quickly Delta transmits, seems like low quality masks give false perception of safety and might make things worse, as in parents assuming they work and therefore heading out to grandparents).

I switched to kn95 early on just because of comfort for me, I don’t fiddle with them as much…but I see the pleated disposable masks lots on kids at doctors and they fiddle with those.

Higher quality masks will certainly help more.  Lowe quality masks will help less, but will still help.  Few masks offer zero protection. Even if it simply reduces the quantity of virus entering the nairs or lungs, that could help reduce severity of disease.  I think if all kids are wearing masks, there will be a greater perception of this is not normal and thus we need to be more careful.  If most kids are not wearing masks, I think their attitude will equally be more lax about other precautions. Other precautions of distancing etc. will be in place. 

[Danzo]

29 minutes ago, pogi said:

I have done the research and studies suggest up to 50% of children can have multiple lingering symptoms form months, some can be disabling.  To avoid confusion again, that is the top range, worst case scenario. Most studies suggest anywhere between 15% to 50%. 

CFR

 

Over 4.2 million children have tested positive for Covid.  

CFR that 2.1 million are experiencing Long haul COVID.

https://services.aap.org/en/pages/2019-novel-coronavirus-covid-19-infections/children-and-covid-19-state-level-data-report/

Edited August 5, 2021 by Danzo

[pogi]

25 minutes ago, Danzo said:

CFR

 

Over 4.2 million children have tested positive for Covid.  

CFR that 2.1 million are experiencing Long haul COVID.

https://services.aap.org/en/pages/2019-novel-coronavirus-covid-19-infections/children-and-covid-19-state-level-data-report/

Give me a break Danzo.   I never claimed to have data which shows that 2.1 million kids are experiencing long covid.  That is not how studies work.  It uses statistics and doesn't account for every child.  Neither have I claimed that 50% have long covid.  How the heck is that not clear by now!  I said (proabably 4 or 5 times by now) that 50% is the "upper limi"t.  "Worst case scenario".  But most studies suggest "anywhere from 15% to 50%".  Seriously, quit coming after me for this.  I even clarified "to avoid confusion..."    Are you just trolling me now or something?

I have already posted the study I was referring to. 

I am done for now.  This is really irritating me. 

Edited August 5, 2021 by pogi

[Danzo]

2 minutes ago, pogi said:

Give me a break Danzo.   I never claimed to have data which shows that 2.1 million kids are experiencing long covid.  That is not how studies work.  It uses statistics and doesn't account for every child.  Neither have I claimed that 50% have long covid.  How the heck is that not clear by now!  I said (proabably 4 or 5 times by now) that 50% is the "upper limi"t.  "Worst case scenario".  But most studies suggest "anywhere from 15% to 50%".  Seriously, quit coming after me for this.  

I have already posted the study I was referring to. 

I am done for now.  This is really irritating me. 

Show me then that 600,000 children are suffering from long covid (15%).

If the numbers were anything close to what you are saying, it shouldn't be that hard to find.

[bsjkki]

The research seems to be showing long covid in kids happens less than adults and no where near the 50 percent number. I do think saying up to 50% is misleading when leading experts don’t believe that to be the case. The latest. 
https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.forbes.com/sites/graisondangor/2021/08/03/children-rarely-get-long-covid-study-finds/amp/

 

[rongo]

23 minutes ago, pogi said:

CFR that it is less severe.  Please don't post hearsay without backing it up on important matters such as this . . .

Again, more gossip without sources.  I have done the research and studies suggest up to 50% of children can have multiple lingering symptoms form months, some can be disabling.  To avoid confusion again, that is the top range, worst case scenario. Most studies suggest anywhere between 15% to 50% . . .

If there are a ton of articles which show that the Delta variant is "no higher risk for hospitalization and death as compared to the flu" than it shouldn't be hard for you to post one here.  So far I have seen nothing to answer the CFR.

Who said I was "so terrified".  I wouldn't consider myself terrified in the least.  I do have some anxiety about sending my kids to school without vaccination or mask mandates in place during a giant spike in Delta cases in the state. 

I would be anxious if there was a flu strain as contagious as the delta variant going around with high transmission in my community right before school begins.  Why should I be less anxious with this?  I think you underestimate the flu in kids, even more so the Delta variant. 

 

You just waved away the two I shared (one from the Cleveland Clinic: "It’s been rare to see a child get very ill from COVID-19 regardless of the strain. So far, it does not appear that the delta strain has caused more severe illness in children" and one from a Bay Area affiliate, quoting a Cal-San Francisco doctor saying that Covid just doesn't seem to gain purchase in kids). That's what I hate about the CFR wars here . . . the CFR people just keep saying "not good enough for me. CFR again" over and over.

I'll swap a CFR with you (I see Danzo beat me to it). Please share studies that have "up to half of all children with multiple lingering symptoms for months."

As for my CFR, here are some that specifically address whether Covid is less severe in children than the flu.

https://www.npr.org/2021/05/21/999241558/in-kids-the-risk-of-covid-19-and-the-flu-are-similar-but-the-risk-perception-isn

"The risk of serious COVID-19 illness in children is comparable to their risk from the flu, but many parents seem more concerned about coronavirus. The issue of risk perception has a lot do with it."

Granted, this doesn't support that Covid is less severe than the flu, but it does support what should be common sense, based on our observations of the last two years that at most they are similar. The mass hysteria has never been there with the flu.

https://www.statesman.com/story/news/politics/elections/2020/09/09/fact-check-is-flu-harder-on-kids-than-covid-19/113718780/

PolitiFact pegs this as "mostly true."

https://www.news-medical.net/news/20210614/Study-suggests-COVID-19-in-children-is-milder-than-the-flu.aspx

Title speaks for itself.

https://www.cbsnews.com/news/coronavirus-has-largely-spared-us-children-the-flu-has-killed-144-so-far-this-season/

More children died from flu than Covid last year.

---

 

 

 

[pogi]

3 minutes ago, Danzo said:

Show me then that 600,000 children are suffering from long covid (15%).

If the numbers were anything close to what you are saying, it shouldn't be that hard to find.

You must be trolling me.  But I will give you the benefit of the doubt that you really don't understand much about any of this, whatsoever. 

Once again studies don't work that way.  They use statistical analysis.   There is no national system tracking long-covid, so we are dependent on smaller scale studies which use statistical analysis to predict prevalence in the community.  There is no one calling families asking if their kids are still having any symptoms 2 months later.  Nothing even close to that exists.  Even if kids do go to their doctors to report the symptoms, there is no national database for doctors to report that too.  NO ONE IS TRACKING IT.  So, YES, it would be that hard to find that kind of information. 

[pogi]

5 minutes ago, rongo said:

You just waved away the two I shared (one from the Cleveland Clinic: "It’s been rare to see a child get very ill from COVID-19 regardless of the strain. So far, it does not appear that the delta strain has caused more severe illness in children" and one from a Bay Area affiliate, quoting a Cal-San Francisco doctor saying that Covid just doesn't seem to gain purchase in kids). That's what I hate about the CFR wars here . . . the CFR people just keep saying "not good enough for me. CFR again" over and over.

Nothing which compares hospitalization and death to the flu.  Nothing.  Show me one study which even says the word "flu" in it that you posted. 

6 minutes ago, rongo said:

I'll swap a CFR with you (I see Danzo beat me to it). Please share studies that have "up to half of all children with multiple lingering symptoms for months."

I already posted it.  

7 minutes ago, rongo said:

As for my CFR, here are some that specifically address whether Covid is less severe in children than the flu.

No, no, no rongo.  Nice try, but the claim is that the Delta variant is less severe than the flu in children.  Remember how everybody is saying this is a whole new ball game?  I don't want info about Covid in general.  specifically about Delta.  That is your claim. 

[Calm]

6 minutes ago, bsjkki said:

I do think saying up to 50% is misleading when leading experts don’t believe that to be the case.

To the general public who aren’t trained in stats, I agree it is confusing and probably best to avoid….but I don’t have a problem with saying something like ‘????? (# of studies) studies among ???? Studies place long Covid as possibly as high as 50% while ??? studies show it at 15% though most studies place it between ???? and ????.’

But Pogi has been clear on what he meant, so inappropriate to act like he is claiming otherwise.

[pogi]

12 minutes ago, bsjkki said:

The research seems to be showing long covid in kids happens less than adults and no where near the 50 percent number. I do think saying up to 50% is misleading when leading experts don’t believe that to be the case. The latest. 
https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.forbes.com/sites/graisondangor/2021/08/03/children-rarely-get-long-covid-study-finds/amp/

 

That is based on one study.  There have been multiple studies and none of them completely agree with each other, the upper limit is 50% according to one study. 

[pogi]

FYI I am going to be out of town for a couple of days in the mountains with the youth.  Don't expect any responses from me for a bit.  Peace out!

[Calm]

As thread starter…

Focus on Delta variant now.  That is what we are dealing with.  So nice if it wasn’t (bizarre to be nostalgic for last summer).

If anyone can find severity stats on Delta, I would love to see them.  Been looking for several days, everything I have found is still projection or vague.

[Calm]

1 minute ago, pogi said:

FYI I am going to be out of town…. in the mountains with the youth.  Don't expect any responses from me….

So you are heading for the hills after all! (All in the editing  ).

Edited August 5, 2021 by Calm

[Calm]

I am thinking of shutting down this thread and moving on to Covid III:  Delta Force.

Would that be useful?

[Danzo]

10 minutes ago, pogi said:

You must be trolling me.  But I will give you the benefit of the doubt that you really don't understand much about any of this, whatsoever. 

Once again studies don't work that way.  They use statistical analysis.   There is no national system tracking long-covid, so we are dependent on smaller scale studies which use statistical analysis to predict prevalence in the community.  There is no one calling families asking if their kids are still having any symptoms 2 months later.  Nothing even close to that exists.  Even if kids do go to their doctors to report the symptoms, there is no national database for doctors to report that too.  NO ONE IS TRACKING IT.  So, YES, it would be that hard to find that kind of information. 

So you can't provide the CFR.

 

600,000 children with long covid should be a conservative number since it is likely that more children have had covid than have been tested.

If children were experiencing symptoms in these quantities people would notice. Pediatricians would notice. Primary care physicians would notice.

Doctors collect this type of information. They report this kind of information.  

Again, CFR that any credible health organisation thinks 15% of children who get long covid.

 

[bsjkki]

10 minutes ago, pogi said:

That is based on one study.  There have been multiple studies and none of them completely agree with each other, the upper limit is 50% according to one study. 

But more than one study suggests it is below 10 percent...as low as 1 percent.  I don’t think one study that says up to 50%, basically at this point, an outlier, should be thrown around. 
 

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.nytimes.com/2021/08/03/health/kids-covid-symptoms-recovery.amp.html

Same study. A bit more information about. I previously posted the study that had a control group.

 

 

Edited August 5, 2021 by bsjkki

[rongo]

Just now, pogi said:

Nothing which compares hospitalization and death to the flu.  Nothing.  Show me one study which even says the word "flu" in it that you posted. 

Um, every single one says the word flu. They came up in a search comparing Covid and flu in children.  Do you not even look at what we post for your CFRs?

Besides, that isn't how studies work, right? Statistical sampling and analysis instead of counting and reporting kids in hospital beds and all that.  

 

[pogi]

7 minutes ago, bsjkki said:

But more than one study suggests it is below 10 percent...as low as 1 percent.  I don’t think one study that says up to 50%, basically at this point, an outlier, should be thrown around. 
 

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.nytimes.com/2021/08/03/health/kids-covid-symptoms-recovery.amp.html

Same study. A bit more information about. I previously posted the study that had a control group.

 

 

Fair enough, I will consider it an outlier and throw it out. So now we are in a range of below 10%, maybe as low as 1% (another likely outlier) and as high as 30%