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Covid II: Medical Info and Implications


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2 hours ago, Harry T. Clark said:

Nurse Pogi, my point is that despite all that we are doing, the virus is continuing to spread.  Despite lock downs and mask mandates, the numbers are what they are. 

Which makes me fear what could/would have been, and what will be if we follow your layman's advice that contradicts the top medical agencies recommendations.  The fact that Covid is spreading does not disprove that mitigation efforts are having an effect.  That is nonsense. 

2 hours ago, Harry T. Clark said:

California locks down and Florida doesn't, yet the numbers are depressingly the same. 

Once again with the cherry picking and ignoring the details and big picture.  You can't compare state to state like that.  I can play the same game.  Lets compare South and North Dakota, Wyoming, Nebraska, and Indiana (low regulations) with Oregon, Washington, and Massachusetts (high regulations).  Florid seems to be an outlier.  Florida by far ranks better when compared to other low regulated states.  Instead of investigating why it is an outlier, you seem to want to uphold it as a model to follow and ignore the big picture and details.   Florida is the warmest state year around!!! This likely explains a lot of why it is doing better than other states with low regulations.  This can help in lots of ways, including allowing residents to eat outdoors all time of the year.  Other factors you don't even take a second to consider - is it the loose regulation rates, or is it the low infection rates that allow for looser regulations?  Even as it is, your map clearly shows most areas in Florida maxing out hospitalization beds.  It is also difficult to determine the variant of Covid in each state.  We know that some are more infectious than others.  There are WAY too many factors to consider before concluding that our mitigation efforts are not working and open up the entire Country simply by comparing Florida to California.  That IS careless and reckless.  How do you not see that?  I remember when people were holding up Montana and other states as models to follow because of their relatively low numbers.  Interesting how time changes things. 

3 hours ago, Harry T. Clark said:

Perhaps we should rethink our response?  Maybe it doesn't matter what we do and the virus will spread regardless?  Is it a crime to consider these questions? 

We should rethink it based on what?  Surely you have something more for me to consider than your comparison of 2 states in isolation from the rest of the nation.  It is not a crime, but it is reckless and dangerous to try and influence others to lose trust in our best hope - the CDC and other leading agencies which have demonstrated consensus - and to suggest that we should return to life as normal and pursue natural herd immunity despite all of our best scientists and medical experts advice/recommendations.  Your influence has an effect on lay people and politically motivated people, and you need to realize that you are gambling with lives. 

2 hours ago, Harry T. Clark said:

Also, you don't have any proof that millions will die if we opt to follow Florida or Sweden.  You are just promoting fear.

Can you dispute my math? If I am to believe your conclusions that positive cases are actually lower, how could I be wrong given natural herd immunity?

We have a new variant that it twice as infectious.  It will rapidly be the dominant strain in the states.  To loosen restrictions now would be the stupidest thing we could ever do.  Especially with the vaccine being distributed as we speak.  Seriously, to loosen our restrictions now...it is unthinkable.  We are too close to the finish line to carelessly gamble the lives of our people on your layman's comparison of 2 states. 

 

Edited by pogi
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1 hour ago, Harry T. Clark said:

How do you explain the recent rise in numbers despite all of the sacrifices all are doing?  https://covidtracking.com/data/national/hospitalization

I don't need to explain any rise.  I never said there wouldn't be a rise.  There are a multitude of factors that can lead to spikes (including a new variant throughout the US that is twice as infectious).  

The burden is on you to demonstrate that all the best medical and scientific institutions are wrong and that you, a lay person, are right in that the numbers would not be significantly different if we returned to life as normal.  Good luck!

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Even the prophet is fallible, but not the CDC?  Are you for real? 

CFR that I ever said they are infallible.  They absolutely are fallible, but they are less so than you in regards to infectious disease mitigation efforts.  These institutions are our greatest hope.  They are not perfect, but neither are prophets. 

Edited by pogi
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4 hours ago, Harry T. Clark said:

You are just promoting fear.

Unfair and wrong.  And as thread originator, I am saying you need to stop it. 

Edited by Calm
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5 hours ago, Harry T. Clark said:

Perhaps we should rethink our response?  Maybe it doesn't matter what we do and the virus will spread regardless?  Is it a crime to consider these questions? 

 

These are all good questions. All the data should be carefully studied. 
 

A German judge thought, based on the statistics, lockdowns went too far. 
 

http://enformtk.u-aizu.ac.jp/howard/weimar_ruling/

This is not to say all precautions should go (masks,social distancing) but all the consequences of preventions should be waged against the costs.

 

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This article came out today. Clark County wants to open schools ASAP as the suicide rate doubles. I know in my county, there have been no covid deaths for anyone under 40 but we have had suicides. Elementary school is in session but middle school and high school has been home since November. Charter schools are in session but not public schools.
 

In Chicago, upper grades have been out of school since March. 
https://www.nytimes.com/2021/01/24/us/politics/student-suicides-nevada-coronavirus.html

And in Chicago, teachers vote not to return. https://apnews.com/article/us-news-teaching-coronavirus-pandemic-chicago-d51f2ebe1504cfe36eb5ea8467567389
 

My niece in Utah got the vaccine. She is a first year 8th grade math teacher. She has been teaching in person all year 

Edited by bsjkki
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16 hours ago, bsjkki said:

This article came out today. Clark County wants to open schools ASAP as the suicide rate doubles. I know in my county, there have been no covid deaths for anyone under 40 but we have had suicides. Elementary school is in session but middle school and high school has been home since November. Charter schools are in session but not public schools.
 

In Chicago, upper grades have been out of school since March. 
https://www.nytimes.com/2021/01/24/us/politics/student-suicides-nevada-coronavirus.html

And in Chicago, teachers vote not to return. https://apnews.com/article/us-news-teaching-coronavirus-pandemic-chicago-d51f2ebe1504cfe36eb5ea8467567389
 

My niece in Utah got the vaccine. She is a first year 8th grade math teacher. She has been teaching in person all year 

I hope others follow Clark County.  Too many young people have needlessly lost their lives.  https://thehill.com/homenews/state-watch/535598-las-vegas-to-push-reopening-schools-amid-surge-in-student-suicides 

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4 minutes ago, Harry T. Clark said:

I hope others follow Clark County.  Too many young people have needlessly lost their lives.  https://thehill.com/homenews/state-watch/535598-las-vegas-to-push-reopening-schools-amid-surge-in-student-suicides 

This is a huge tragedy.  I know a couple of years ago when a student in my son's school committed suicide it rocked the students off balance as well.  

All of this is such a complicated thing.  Suicide doesn't happen just because kids are out of school.  Some kids may actually be doing better because they are not being bullied at school.  Kids may be struggling because of lack of income that was caused by covid or by family members who have passed on from covid or other reasons.  I feel for Superintendent Jara  for having to weigh all the info and try to figure out what will make things best.

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21 hours ago, The Nehor said:

All the sacrifices? Compliance with Covid guidelines has been a joke for a large segment of the population.

Quit whining about it being “a crime” with the ‘just asking questions’ defense. It is a stupid rhetorical tactic. You aren’t seeking information. You are pushing misinformation and dodging having to defend your misinformation by pretending to be detached from it.

I'm not seeking information?  I'm trying to mislead?  Naw.  This hasn't been settled as science in general is never settled.  There are a lot of unanswered questions and confusing data coming out.  You may not be curious but you should be and you should be asking questions of our scientists and authorities.

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9 minutes ago, Rain said:

This is a huge tragedy.  I know a couple of years ago when a student in my son's school committed suicide it rocked the students off balance as well.  

All of this is such a complicated thing.  Suicide doesn't happen just because kids are out of school.  Some kids may actually be doing better because they are not being bullied at school.  Kids may be struggling because of lack of income that was caused by covid or by family members who have passed on from covid or other reasons.  I feel for Superintendent Jara  for having to weigh all the info and try to figure out what will make things best.

Rarely are things ever black and white and usually things are on a continuum.  However, I feel for kids that cannot go to school and be around other kids.  Zoom classes and zoom church have taken its toll.  There is something about being in the presence of others that lifts the spirit.  So, I can see how preventing kids from that interaction in school could affect some so negatively that they attempt or succeed in taking their lives.

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4 minutes ago, Harry T. Clark said:

So, I can see how preventing kids from that interaction in school could affect some so negatively that they attempt or succeed in taking their lives.

It is both inaccurate and dangerous to speak or treat suicidal behaviour as having one primary cause.  Later I will post the guidelines for disc using suicide while avoiding ways of speaking that increase risks.  Better to speak of risk factors that contribute to a more holistic view.

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30 minutes ago, Calm said:

It is both inaccurate and dangerous to speak or treat suicidal behaviour as having one primary cause.  Later I will post the guidelines for disc using suicide while avoiding ways of speaking that increase risks.  Better to speak of risk factors that contribute to a more holistic view.

It's dangerous to have an opinion regarding a possible cause for a child's suicide?  That seems a little excessive using that word "dangerous."  Dangerous to whom, potential causative agents?  Don't you think that there could be a primary cause for someone's suicide?  What if someone with a good job, family, etc. and otherwise healthy comes home from a trip, finds his spouse is in the middle of cheating on him and then shoots himself shortly thereafter?  Couldn't the unfortunate discovery be the primary cause or is that simply too dangerous to consider the obvious?  Sure, other factors may exist as many suffer through the above scenario and don't commit suicide.  However, some do commit suicide as a result of the above scenario, that being the primary cause as they weren't suicidal before.  Kids have committed suicide as a result of bullying from other kids, that being the primary cause.  I don't see how putting blame on bullying behavior is dangerous either. 

And by the way, I won't accuse Pogi of fearmongering like you requested.

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1 hour ago, Harry T. Clark said:

I'm not seeking information?  I'm trying to mislead?  Naw.  This hasn't been settled as science in general is never settled.  There are a lot of unanswered questions and confusing data coming out.  You may not be curious but you should be and you should be asking questions of our scientists and authorities.

There is a lot of data but you fixate on the outliers and reach a conclusion that the people who interpreted the data you presented didn’t go to. That is less seeking answers  and more seeking support for a conclusion already reached.

1 hour ago, Harry T. Clark said:

Rarely are things ever black and white and usually things are on a continuum.  However, I feel for kids that cannot go to school and be around other kids.  Zoom classes and zoom church have taken its toll.  There is something about being in the presence of others that lifts the spirit.  So, I can see how preventing kids from that interaction in school could affect some so negatively that they attempt or succeed in taking their lives.

Did public and private schooling creating the five day school week avert a bunch of suicides that were going on before?

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11 minutes ago, The Nehor said:

There is a lot of data but you fixate on the outliers and reach a conclusion that the people who interpreted the data you presented didn’t go to. That is less seeking answers  and more seeking support for a conclusion already reached.

Did public and private schooling creating the five day school week avert a bunch of suicides that were going on before?

1. This is a discussion board.  I think it's healthy to point out contrary views of data from doctors and scientists and I would think that everyone would want to consider all the alternatives.  You seem threatened by this and seem to want to lump anyone in disagreement with your static views as an enemy.  Nonetheless, we are just discussing, nothing more.

2. The clark county superintendent saw a doubling of teen suicides since the pandemic's start and thought it best to correct his course.  I can certainly see how isolating teens and children would lead to increased depression and suicide.  Yet you feel threatened by this somehow? Don't blame the pandemic response for anything dire that happened?  What if it turns out that leaders went a little overboard and we all learn from their mistakes? 

This isn't a contest as you seem to think it is.

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4 hours ago, Harry T. Clark said:

1. This is a discussion board.  I think it's healthy to point out contrary views of data from doctors and scientists and I would think that everyone would want to consider all the alternatives.  You seem threatened by this and seem to want to lump anyone in disagreement with your static views as an enemy.  Nonetheless, we are just discussing, nothing more.

2. The clark county superintendent saw a doubling of teen suicides since the pandemic's start and thought it best to correct his course.  I can certainly see how isolating teens and children would lead to increased depression and suicide.  Yet you feel threatened by this somehow? Don't blame the pandemic response for anything dire that happened?  What if it turns out that leaders went a little overboard and we all learn from their mistakes? 

This isn't a contest as you seem to think it is.

1. It is a threat. Choosing to believe fringe theories instead of going with experts and more established theories and facts has consequences.

2. Why don’t we provide more mental health resources, better distance education resources, and look into what is causing the depression and how it can be mitigated instead of deciding to ignore the health risks and let Covid spread? Why default to reopening? Even if there were no other options the report is there that there were 9 additional suicides over the previous year so nine more deaths per year. Clark County is averaging around 35 deaths from Covid per day. Which is the more pressing problem?

Of course it is a contest. We either follow the best information we have or we don’t. If we do we are likely to mitigate the number of deaths and those who long term problems stemming from this disease. If we don’t the number of deaths and people with long term problems are likely to be much higher. Beliefs have consequences. Reality doesn’t care “if we are just discussing”. Advocates shape policy. Policy has consequences.

 

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7 hours ago, Harry T. Clark said:

esult of the above scenario, that being the primary cause as they weren't suicidal before.  Kids have committed suicide as a result of bullying from other kids, that being the primary cause

What you do by claiming a primary cause is normalize suicide as a reaction to that behaviour and given the issue of suicide contagion, that can raise risk factors overall. 
 

There are many, many kids who are bullied, even in extreme fashion, and still don’t kill themselves.  Same with other risk factors.  
 

While this is published for the LGBT community, the guidelines on the most effective ways to discuss suicide without having the unintended consequences of increasing their occurrence apply broadly (it is unfortunately not unknown for suicide prevention programs to actually see an increase of suicides among participants due to accidentally communicating the wrong message....see suicide clusters and contagion for more info).

https://www.lgbtmap.org/file/talking-about-suicide-and-lgbt-populations.pdf

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DON’T attribute a suicide death to experiences known or believed to have occurred shortly before the person died. The underlying causes of most suicide deaths are complex and not always immediately obvious. Making hasty assumptions about those causes, even when based on comments from family or friends or media reports, can result in statements that are later proven to be inaccurate. Don’t risk perpetuating false or misleading information by jumping to conclusions about the reasons for a particular suicide death. Also, directly attributing a suicide to bullying or another negative life event can increase contagion risk among vulnerable individuals who have similar experiences.


7. DON’T normalize suicide by presenting it as the logical consequence of the kinds of bullying, rejection, discrimination and exclusion that LGBT people often experience. Presenting suicide as the inexplicable act of an otherwise healthy LGBT person—or drawing a direct, causal link between suicide and the bullying or discrimination that LGBT people often face—can encourage at- risk individuals to identify with the victim (or the victim’s life circumstances) and increase risk of suicidal behavior.

 

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5 hours ago, Harry T. Clark said:

You seem threatened by this and seem to want to lump anyone in disagreement with your static views as an enemy. 

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you fixate on the outliers...


Please stop the personal commentary. There is no need for guesses about others’ mental state if your intent is to discuss the science and not try and shut someone down. 

Edited by Calm
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1 hour ago, The Nehor said:

1. It is a threat. Choosing to believe fringe theories instead of going with experts and more established theories and facts has consequences.

2. Why don’t we provide more mental health resources, better distance education resources, and look into what is causing the depression and how it can be mitigated instead of deciding to ignore the health risks and let Covid spread? Why default to reopening? Even if there were no other options the report is there that there were 9 additional suicides over the previous year so nine more deaths per year. Clark County is averaging around 35 deaths from Covid per day. Which is the more pressing problem?

Of course it is a contest. We either follow the best information we have or we don’t. If we do we are likely to mitigate the number of deaths and those who long term problems stemming from this disease. If we don’t the number of deaths and people with long term problems are likely to be much higher. Beliefs have consequences. Reality doesn’t care “if we are just discussing”. Advocates shape policy. Policy has consequences.

 

1. Are you serious that a view different from yours is a threat?  So, what exactly is threatening about what I have said?  What fringe theories do I supposedly believe in?

2. Take it up with the head of the Clark County School District.

3. These supposed experts are not above criticism.  Calm down with the us v. them rhetoric already.  I think you need to stop whining about people disagreeing with your opinions.

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42 minutes ago, Calm said:

What you do by claiming a primary cause is normalize suicide as a reaction to that behaviour and given the issue of suicide contagion, that can raise risk factors overall. 
 

There are many, many kids who are bullied, even in extreme fashion, and still don’t kill themselves.  Same with other risk factors.  
 

While this is published for the LGBT community, the guidelines on the most effective ways to discuss suicide without having the unintended consequences of increasing their occurrence apply broadly (it is unfortunately not unknown for suicide prevention programs to actually see an increase of suicides among participants due to accidentally communicating the wrong message....see suicide clusters and contagion for more info).

https://www.lgbtmap.org/file/talking-about-suicide-and-lgbt-populations.pdf

 

Maybe the Hill and the N.Y. Times should retract their stories?

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4 minutes ago, Harry T. Clark said:

Maybe the Hill and the N.Y. Times should retract their stories?

If not following guidelines issued for discussing suicide and if not following the science, then yes.

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1 hour ago, bsjkki said:

Interesting.  I had heard that the concern with covid was more with liver and kidneys than lungs (they, wherever I read it, were surprised by this). IF it really does have more to do with kidneys and liver than lungs and if it holds true that smokers have a harder time it makes me wonder how much smoking body parts other than lungs normally. 

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4 hours ago, Harry T. Clark said:

1. Are you serious that a view different from yours is a threat?  So, what exactly is threatening about what I have said?  What fringe theories do I supposedly believe in?

2. Take it up with the head of the Clark County School District.

3. These supposed experts are not above criticism.  Calm down with the us v. them rhetoric already.  I think you need to stop whining about people disagreeing with your opinions.

1. It is not that it is a view different from mine. It is that they are factually incorrect.

2. So you want to have a discussion but you pass the buck and I have to go to Vegas to have it? Nah.

3. “Supposed” experts? They are above criticism driven by bad information. Acting like all points of view are equally valid sounds nice but when one side is using real data and the other is not there can be no discussion. “Here is Dr. Noel Winner here to talk to us about the latest probe sent to Titan. In the interest of balance we also invited King Wingbat, an amateur Polka dancer who believes that the earth is flat, that other planets and stars are a deep state plot, and that winged monkeys have been sent by the CIA to fluoridate his water supply. Gentlemen, thank you both for joining us and we look forward to your debate.”

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