Elder Holland and Double Digit Stake Creation Weekly

[DBMormon]

The main example I want addressed is the following 

Elder Holland in a Regional meeting claims that the Church is growing in such a rate that it is creating Double Digit NEW Stake creation "every week of our lives". 

his quote is
 

Quote

""We’re in the midst of incredible growth. Staggering Growth in the Church. It’s the single biggest problem we have. Its the best problem we could have, but the biggest. We are reeling under the implications of the growth we have in this church… A week ago Thursday we created 15 stakes. And we are doing that, mas o menos, every week… more or less. It might not be 15… the week before it was 12. Sometimes its 8 (said with a tone that indicates this is on the low side of things) or whatever and it will be a little uneven. But the point is, we’re talking double digits stakes every week, every week of our lives"

The Problem is that the Church every year tells us the number of stakes in the Church at year end of the previous year.  Elder Holland made this claim in April 2016 And from 2015 through 2017 the church consistently averaged around 1.6 new stakes per week.   It is not even double digits each month.  

Subtract the previous years # of stakes by the following years total and you get the number of additional stakes in the Church from the previous year.  

RESOURCES:
- 2015 LDS membership report
- 2016 LDS membership report
-  2017 LDS membership report

- The Youtube video of his claim
- response from a blogger trying to reconcile - The owner of this blog is trying to reconcile the claim and as you will see relies on anectdotal data as he struggles to have any real source for the claim further showing how much of a stretch the claim seems to be to reconcile
- Data exploration on this issue

I grant one possibility is that the Church closes 8.5 stakes for every 10 it creates but that also makes Elder Holland's imposition of the magnitude of the growth of the Church deceptive and dishonest.

This example above is the one I want to see addressed here

But I also want to establish that  I see a pattern of dishonesty coming from Elder Holland and happy to take comments on these as well.  I agree that a few of these have wiggle room to one degree or another but the for a few it feels to me to be deceptive behavior unless one is simply dead set on making excuses for him.

==============================================================================

1.) Elder Holland claims to hold the very copy of the book of Mormon that Bethsheba, Hyrum Smith wife, had in her possession from which Hyrum Smith the prophets brother read to her and had turned the corner of the page down from where he read.  The problem is that the copy Elder Holland holds up in his hand at General conference is distinctly different from the copy in the Church History department claimed to be the same book.  I have heard argument that several family members had copies with corners turned down and hence both books could be the very copy with the corner turned down.  I would love historical evidence of such and not just a claim.
RESOURCES:
- in depth run down of the issue
- Safety for the Soul conference Talk
- http://www.salamandersociety.com/foyer/prophets/jeffreyrholland/

2.) Elder Holland when asked about the Church's contribution to Prop 8 says that the Church did not give "One Red Cent" to the fight against Same Sex Marriage in California.  Problem is it gave a reported amount of almost $200,000.  Some want to debate over whether it was cash or in kind donations but to battle over rhetoric seems to be a sly way to find a loophole when someone seems to be asking about the Church's direct involvement and donations and contributions.  The question becomes one of what is a person asking and are we being deceptive in how we answer them.  
RESOURCES:
- https://www.mormonnewsroom.org/article/same-sex-marriage-and-proposition-8
- https://www.huffingtonpost.com/fred-karger/mormongate----the-churchs_b_163016.html
- http://www.missedinsunday.com/memes/lgbtq/proposition-8/
- https://www.nytimes.com/2008/11/15/us/politics/15marriage.html
- https://www.dailydot.com/irl/mormon-church-gay-marriage-prop-8/

3.) Elder Holland tells a faith promoting story about a missionary who out on his mission is led by the spirit to his older brother who had severed his relationship with his family years earlier.   Elder Holland had told this story for years and other General Authorities before him had shared it.    The problem is the story was a false faith promoting narrative.  Each telling contained different contradicting details and too far fetched to believe of a story-line.   Many including myself called BS before it was retracted.  Soon after the Deseret News picked up on the story, the far fetched details began to be questioned by Mormons and critics alike who sensed this tale was too big to hold water.  Hence Elder Holland through the Deseret News and Church PR quickly distanced himself from the story.   But even his side of how he came to learn the story was inaccurate is problematic and left many details void that would help his side of the story hold up.
RESOURCES:
-  Cache of Original Story
- https://www.deseretnews.com/article/865685840/Elder-Holland-withdraws-Church-News-missionary-story.html
- http://kuer.org/post/mormon-apostle-withdraws-embellished-story#stream/0

4.) Elder Holland when asked directly whether Mitt Romney would have made penalty oaths in the temple answers NO.  Problem, such is a flat untruth.  When called on it he stammers and stutters in an effort to regain balance in the conversation.  
RESOURCES:
- Youtube Clip showing the lie
- https://www.cityweekly.net/BuzzBlog/archives/2012/06/05/bbc-interview-with-lds-leader-earns-controversy
- https://www.reddit.com/r/mormon/comments/7c2tuq/did_holland_lie_semantic_analysis_of_jeffrey_r/
- Jonathon Streeter's dissection of this event
 

[SteveO]

Well that does it...I'm leaving the church

[Guest]

34 minutes ago, SteveO said:

Well that does it...I'm leaving the church

Does it ever feel like every time a GA speaks, it is like a President speaking? Much like the presscore all around spring into action to fact check every quote, every number, every hiccup, to find even a letter out of place, or is it me? 

[juliann]

😱      💤

 

[drums12]

Geez Bill...we get it.  You have made a cottage industry of making church leaders offenders for a word.   I've got plenty of things that bother me about the Church, its history as well as current practices.  But seriously, it seems like you sit around data mining everything LDS related to find something you can get mileage out of.  

Edited June 8, 2018 by drums12

[DBMormon]

In other words, yes he seemed to portray the growth 15 fold greater than it is and seemed to do so in order to create emotional experiences that the crowd would call a testimony and based on a view of the Church that deeply missed the mark from the realty of Church growth with no forthrightness about the number of stakes closed and how growth is only one of the big problems the church has but seeing as we have no explanation, we have little choice than to attack the poster for pointing out the dishonesty.  Thanks!  and no I am not upset, this is actually what I expected as it is a deeply in-group defense mechanism.  We often are able to see an issue when it presents itself outside our tribe but we get very defensive when it is inside.

[drums12]

6 minutes ago, DBMormon said:

In other words, yes he seemed to portray the growth 15 fold greater than it is and seemed to do so in order to create emotional experiences that the crowd would call a testimony and based on a view of the Church that deeply missed the mark from the realty of Church growth with no forthrightness about the number of stakes closed and how growth is only one of the big problems the church has but seeing as we have no explanation, we have little choice than to attack the poster for pointing out the dishonesty.  Thanks!  and no I am not upset, this is actually what I expected as it is a deeply in-group defense mechanism.  We often are able to see an issue when it presents itself outside our tribe but we get very defensive when it is inside.

I see you are using all the progressive, NOM, EX-MO jargon psychobabble

[Duncan]

http://ldschurchgrowth.blogspot.com/2016/04/10-new-stakes-to-be-created-each-week.html

 

Read this, he isn't talking about what you're talking about.

1) Who cares?

2) it's 2018 not 2008 anymore, move on with life

3) he probably told the story as he heard it related, he found out it was untrue and retracted it, he moved and so should you

4) Johnathon Streeter ? speaking of deception

[DBMormon]

Just now, drums12 said:

I see you are using all the progressive, NOM, EX-MO jargon psychobabble

or could such have nothing to do with Mormonism and be a social development reality in the real world?

in the end either we can reconcile Elder Hollands words or we can acknowledge he was telling untruths.  If we settle on the latter, we can excuse them away or they can be a barrier for us.  I care less about the second choice and was only working on the first - reconcilable with the data or an untruth by a church leader?

 

[ALarson]

10 minutes ago, DBMormon said:

In other words, yes he seemed to portray the growth 15 fold greater than it is and seemed to do so in order to create emotional experiences that the crowd would call a testimony and based on a view of the Church that deeply missed the mark from the realty of Church growth with no forthrightness about the number of stakes closed and how growth is only one of the big problems the church has but seeing as we have no explanation, we have little choice than to attack the poster for pointing out the dishonesty.  Thanks!  and no I am not upset, this is actually what I expected as it is a deeply in-group defense mechanism.  We often are able to see an issue when it presents itself outside our tribe but we get very defensive when it is inside.

DB, here's a thread where Elder Holland's statements were discussed.  IIRC, there were some here who wouldn't even watch the video clip.

Anyway....just thought you might be interested in this thread:

http://www.mormondialogue.org/topic/67488-elder-holland-10-new-stakes-every-week/

 

[Duncan]

13 minutes ago, DBMormon said:

In other words, yes he seemed to portray the growth 15 fold greater than it is and seemed to do so in order to create emotional experiences that the crowd would call a testimony and based on a view of the Church that deeply missed the mark from the realty of Church growth with no forthrightness about the number of stakes closed and how growth is only one of the big problems the church has but seeing as we have no explanation, we have little choice than to attack the poster for pointing out the dishonesty.  Thanks!  and no I am not upset, this is actually what I expected as it is a deeply in-group defense mechanism.  We often are able to see an issue when it presents itself outside our tribe but we get very defensive when it is inside.

or you misread what he is saying and implied

[DBMormon]

Just now, Duncan said:

http://ldschurchgrowth.blogspot.com/2016/04/10-new-stakes-to-be-created-each-week.html

 

Read this, he isn't talking about what you're talking about.

1) Who cares?

2) it's 2018 not 2008 anymore, move on with life

3) he probably told the story as he heard it related, he found out it was untrue and retracted it, he moved and so should you

4) Johnathon Streeter ? speaking of deception

I have read that.  The blog writer is also trying to reconcile the statement.  Holland said this in April 2016.  The blog writer starts with the assumption that Holland certainly isn't lying and is seeking to figure out from there how this makes sense.  He shares anecdotal data but has no actual source as evidence that the Church actually is creating double digit stakes ever week of our lives.   Feel free to take this link as evidence of nothing to see here, but it is anything but evidence.

1.) seems an acknowledgement from you that it wasn't accurate

2.) same as #1

3.) This story was told for three years by multiple GA's with contradicting details at every turn from telling to telling.  There is more to the explanation we have been given and such is not as cut and dry as the Holland or the Church wished to dismiss it as.

4.) As far as your response to the others.... another in-group mechanism is to not deal with the data on its merit.  Streeter has nothing to do with Hollands lie regarding Romney and the temple.  Dismiss Streeter? fine.  Holland still lied.

 

[DBMormon]

4 minutes ago, Duncan said:

or you misread what he is saying and implied

GREAT - give me a laid out way in which the data reconciles his quote?  help me see another possibility.  But simply saying "Maybe your wrong" is weak and a dismissal based on defensiveness.  It only holds up as a workable excuse in your head.  By all means lay out a way in which this can be reconciled

Edited June 8, 2018 by DBMormon

[bluebell]

1 minute ago, DBMormon said:

GREAT - give me a laid out way in which the data reconciles his quote?  help me see another possibility.  But simply saying "Maybe your wrong" is weak and a dismissal based on defensiveness.  It only holds up as a workable excuse in your head.  By all means lay out a way in which this can be reconciled

I believe on the other thread someone wondered if he misspoke and meant wards, because that actually made sense when compared with the numbers.

[DBMormon]

8 minutes ago, ALarson said:

DB, here's a thread where Elder Holland's statements were discussed.  IIRC, there were some here who wouldn't even watch the video clip.

Anyway....just thought you might be interested in this thread:

http://www.mormondialogue.org/topic/67488-elder-holland-10-new-stakes-every-week/

 

also as you likely saw in that thread, 250,000 new members is likely around 87,500 new active members 1 year later.  creating  approximately 85 additional stakes from the year prior shows that new stakes require much fewer active members per new stake.  Things have changed.  4,000 members per stake is a thing of the past.  My guess is all stakes will have about 2k to 3k going forward.

[DBMormon]

2 minutes ago, bluebell said:

I believe on the other thread someone wondered if he misspoke and meant wards, because that actually made sense when compared with the numbers.

he is free to correct the record.  But if IFS and BUTS were candy and nuts.

[Duncan]

1 minute ago, DBMormon said:

I have read that.  The blog writer is also trying to reconcile the statement.  Holland said this in April 2016.  The blog writer starts with the assumption that Holland certainly isn't lying and is seeking to figure out from there how this makes sense.  He shares anecdotal data but has no actual source as evidence that the Church actually is creating double digit stakes ever week of our lives.   Feel free to take this link as evidence of nothing to see here, but it is anything but evidence.

1.) seems an acknowledgement from you that it wasn't accurate

2.) same as #1

3.) This story was told for three years by multiple GA's with contradicting details at every turn from telling to telling.  There is more to the explanation we have been given and such is not as cut and dry as the Holland or the Church wished to dismiss it as.

4.) As far as your response to the others.... another in-group mechanism is to not deal with the data on its merit.  Streeter has nothing to do with Hollands lie regarding Romney and the temple.  Dismiss Streeter? fine.  Holland still lied.

 

You seem to start with the premise that he is lying and fit your evidence to show that, seems biased to me. Perhaps what Elder Holland was talking about is not what you are talking about

1) I don't know why that's an issue or why people should care???  show me that

2) I don't know if it was accurate and it's 2008, move on with life pal

3) Now your true colours show up again, thanks for showing your cards before the game is over. He apologized and said it shouldn't be shared, so here you are rehashing it again

4) Why do you use Streeter if he has nothing to do with it? He didn't lie, he was saying now he didn't do any oaths, remember pre 1990 is not the same as post 1990.

[DBMormon]

6 minutes ago, bluebell said:

I believe on the other thread someone wondered if he misspoke and meant wards, because that actually made sense when compared with the numbers.

this still doesnt work.  not even close
2015 - https://www.mormonnewsroom.org/article/2015-statistical-report-april-2016-general-conference
Wards and branches.................................................................................................... 30,016
Wards and Branches 30,304

2016 - https://www.lds.org/general-conference/2017/04/statistical-report-2016?lang=eng
Wards and Branches ......................................................................................................30,304

2017 - https://www.mormonnewsroom.org/article/2017-statistical-report-april-2018-general-conference
Wards and Branches................................. 30,506

that comes to 288 new wards which equals 5.5 new wards per week....... from 2015 to 2016 and  3.88 new wards per week from 2016 to 2017

Nice try though.
Lets try again

[ALarson]

11 minutes ago, bluebell said:

I believe on the other thread someone wondered if he misspoke and meant wards, because that actually made sense when compared with the numbers.

If you really listen to how specific Elder Holland was, he most likely was given incorrect information, remembered the facts inaccurately or he just simply misspoke.  As he stated it, it's not correct.

[DBMormon]

6 minutes ago, Duncan said:

You seem to start with the premise that he is lying and fit your evidence to show that, seems biased to me. Perhaps what Elder Holland was talking about is not what you are talking about

1) I don't know why that's an issue or why people should care???  show me that

2) I don't know if it was accurate and it's 2008, move on with life pal

3) Now your true colours show up again, thanks for showing your cards before the game is over. He apologized and said it shouldn't be shared, so here you are rehashing it again

4) Why do you use Streeter if he has nothing to do with it? He didn't lie, he was saying now he didn't do any oaths, remember pre 1990 is not the same as post 1990.

did Romney when he went to the temple make a oath involving penalties?  truth= yes.  Holland's answer = Yes
 

[DBMormon]

1 minute ago, ALarson said:

If you really listen to how specific Elder Holland was, he most likely was given incorrect information, remembered the facts inaccurately or he just simply misspoke.  As he stated it, it's not correct.

If we only gave critics as much charity

[Amulek]

12 minutes ago, DBMormon said:

14 minutes ago, ALarson said:

If you really listen to how specific Elder Holland was, he most likely was given incorrect information, remembered the facts inaccurately or he just simply misspoke.  As he stated it, it's not correct.

If we only gave critics as much charity

You mean critics who, rather than granting the possibility that an apostle was simply mistaken about figure, instead purport that he was intentionally lying, attempting to willfully deceive members of the church into forming false testimonies. 

Yeah, life can be tough sometimes. 

If it will make you feel better, I will happily send you just as many dollar bills as the church turned into the Prop 8 campaign. 

[JulieM]

7 minutes ago, Amulek said:

You mean critics who, rather than granting the possibility that an apostle was simply mistaken about figure, instead purport that he was intentionally lying, attempting to willfully deceive members of the church into forming false testimonies. 

Have you actually watched Elder Holland speaking?  Here’s a clip (it’s short).  Watch and give your impression.  He seems to really believe he’s being correct here.

http://www.mormondialogue.org/topic/67488-elder-holland-10-new-stakes-every-week/

 

Edited June 9, 2018 by JulieM

[bluebell]

48 minutes ago, DBMormon said:

Nice try though.
Lets try again

Nah, I'm good.  If i want to deal with snotty I'll go hang out with my 16 year old while he's mad at me about his screen time limits.

[Robert F. Smith]

1 hour ago, DBMormon said:

In other words, yes he seemed to portray the growth 15 fold greater than it is and seemed to do so in order to create emotional experiences that the crowd would call a testimony and based on a view of the Church that deeply missed the mark from the realty of Church growth with no forthrightness about the number of stakes closed and how growth is only one of the big problems the church has but seeing as we have no explanation, we have little choice than to attack the poster for pointing out the dishonesty.  Thanks!  and no I am not upset, this is actually what I expected as it is a deeply in-group defense mechanism.  We often are able to see an issue when it presents itself outside our tribe but we get very defensive when it is inside.

Instead of taking all this in paranoid fashion, Bill, you might want to take a closer look at the claims you are making.  Ask yourself whether Mike Quinn or Greg Prince would approach these issues the way you do.  None of us should have a problem with factual appraisals, regardless of the conclusions, and regardless of who gets hurt.  The problem is that, in your haste to find fault, you run amuck.  You need, instead, to be as methodical as a lawyer in assembling the false statements.  If they are only partially at fault, you need to own up to it, and if there is a legitimate explanation, you should be willing to graciously allow it.  Instead, you are out for blood.

On the Prop 8 funding, for example, if SLC HQ did not contribute to it, you need to say so directly.  If you are speaking of the funds raised by Mormons in California for that specific purpose, then that is what you should say.  You seem uninterested in the details.  Yet the LDS Church took great pains to separate all political actions in Calif on Prop 8 from official Church actions, and made sure that activities took place outside of chapels (in private homes, for example).  You should be prepared to provide a clinical and dispassionate description of that entire campaign. You need to stop being so defensive when people suggest that you do your thing in a more professional way.