Avatar4321 Posted April 3, 2015 Posted April 3, 2015 Haven't seen any threads analyzing expected growth numbers. I always look forward to that.
Duncan Posted April 3, 2015 Posted April 3, 2015 I'd honestly be surprised if they announced new Temples. It's been two years since the last one was announced but I get the impression they are trying to get through the backlog of ones already announced
cinepro Posted April 3, 2015 Posted April 3, 2015 There's a fairly comprehensive overview (and predictions) on the "other" board from "alf 'o mega" (he does this every year. The thread title is "Handicapping the Statistical Report XI".Here are highlights of the projections. You can go over to the other thread for charts and more stats:Stakes2009: 2,8652010: 2,8962011: 2,9462012: 3,0052013: 3,0502014: 3,096 (five-year linear projection)Last year's growth rate for stakes was about 1.5%, which is about the average growth rate for the last ten years. The linear projection, predictably, says that this rate will continue. I'll take the under (but just barely). Predicted number of stakes for 2014: 3,094 (an increase of 44). ___________________________________________________________Missions2009: 3442010: 3402011: 3402012: 3472013: 4052014: 394 (projected) ast year's mission total included over fifty new missions created in the wake of the expanded missionary force. This one-time anomaly has thrown off the TREND function, which expects a drop in the number of missions. I don't expect that, so it's an easy call to say the projection is low.Predicted number of missions for 2014: 412 (an increase of seven).___________________________________________________________ Wards and Branches2009: 28,4242010: 28,6602011: 28,7842012: 29,0142013: 29,2532014: 29,431 (projected) Wards and branches are projected to slow their growth in 2014. I'm guessing that their growth will be a little higher than the projection, though.Predicted number of wards and branches for 2014: 29,455 (an increase of 202).___________________________________________________________ Total Membership2009: 13,824,8542010: 14,131,4672011: 14,441,3462012: 14,782,4732013: 15,082,0282014: 15,402,040 (projected: linear)2014: 15,426,945 (projected: exponential) This is the largest and therefore least volatile statistic on the report. Since the numbers are so large, this is the one category in which I also present a non-linear projection.After a big year in 2012 (2.36%), 2013 settled back to a fairly average growth rate (2.03%). The projections remember 2012 and are calling for another bumper year. I'm going to guess that they've been seduced by an anomaly.Predicted total membership for 2014: 15,395,426 (an increase of 313,398).___________________________________________________________ New Children of Record2009: 119,7222010: 120,5282011: 119,9172012: 122,2732013: 115,4862014: 117,567 (projected) New Children of Record took a nosedive last year. The projection says we'll recover a bit this year. I'll see that recovery and raise them a few hundred innocents.Predicted new children of record for 2014: 117,805 (an increase of 2,319).___________________________________________________________ Converts Baptized2009: 280,1062010: 272,8142011: 281,3122012: 272,3302013: 282,9452014: 279,460 (projected) Convert baptisms have increased and decreased in strict alternation since 2006, and the projection calls for the pattern to continue with another decrease. I'll bet that the projection is too high, however.Predicted number of converts baptized for 2014: 278,771 (a decrease of 4,174).___________________________________________________________ Full-time Missionaries2009: 51,7362010: 52,2252011: 55,4102012: 58,9902013: 83,0352014: 81,088 (projected) This will be the second statistical report after the big missionary surge. The projection is for a decrease, which will undoubtedly happen sometime. I just don't think it's quite yet.Predicted number of full-time missionaries for 2014: 85,538 (an increase of 2,503).___________________________________________________________ Do not make a habit of cross-posting
Calm Posted April 3, 2015 Posted April 3, 2015 (edited) I'd honestly be surprised if they announced new Temples. It's been two years since the last one was announced but I get the impression they are trying to get through the backlog of ones already announcedIIRC they said last conference or the one before that exactly that. Found this: “When all the previously announced temples are constructed and dedicated, we will have 170 operating temples throughout the world,” President Thomas S. Monson said during the October 2014 general conference. “Because we are concentrating our efforts on completing temples which were previously announced, we are not at the present time announcing any new temples. However, in the future, as we identify needs and locate properties, announcements of additional temples will be made.” https://www.lds.org/ensign/2014/11/news-of-the-church/progress-on-temples-continues?lang=eng They had the same sort of announcement in the Ensign the previous conference issue, but not before that. Edited April 3, 2015 by calmoriah
JLHPROF Posted April 3, 2015 Posted April 3, 2015 Haven't seen any threads analyzing expected growth numbers. I always look forward to that. Size doesn't matter. 1
rockpond Posted April 3, 2015 Posted April 3, 2015 My prediction is that in the wake of internet analysis, they'll begin scaling back which numbers are reported... Maybe not at this conference but within the next few years.
Scott Lloyd Posted April 3, 2015 Posted April 3, 2015 My prediction is that in the wake of internet analysis, they'll begin scaling back which numbers are reported... Maybe not at this conference but within the next few years.A good definition of few is more than two, but not many. Would you care to put a definite number to that -- or at least a range?
Scott Lloyd Posted April 3, 2015 Posted April 3, 2015 (edited) There's a fairly comprehensive overview (and predictions) on the "other" board from "alf 'o mega" (he does this every year. The thread title is "Handicapping the Statistical Report XI".Here are highlights of the projections. You can go over to the other thread for charts and more stats: ...... 2014: 81,088 (projected) This will be the second statistical report after the big missionary surge. The projection is for a decrease, which will undoubtedly happen sometime. I just don't think it's quite yet.Predicted number of full-time missionaries for 2014: 85,538 (an increase of 2,503).___________________________________________________________Alf O'Mega seems unaware of what the Missionary Department has said and of what I have reported: that we are already on the back end of the surge. The surge is already leveling out but the number hasn't decreased nearly to the extent of what was anticipated. Contrary to what Mike Reed has (ahem) "suspected," I don't anticipate it will fall back down to pre-surge levels. (In the interest of fairness, I'll point out that Mike would not define how far it would fall, though he did say he "suspects" the decrease would come in "the next two or three years.") Edited April 3, 2015 by Scott Lloyd
Avatar4321 Posted April 3, 2015 Author Posted April 3, 2015 Size doesn't matter. No.but I like hearing about the work progressing
rockpond Posted April 3, 2015 Posted April 3, 2015 A good definition of few is more than two, but not many. Would you care to put a definite number to that -- or at least a range? Will I get a countdown clock on your phone also? I'd say that by five reports from now the same metrics will no longer be reported (using April 2014 as baseline). I'll include this weekend as one of those five. So the deadline is the April 2019 report. Specifically, I think they'll remove some of the current metrics and possibly add new ones. If I were to place a bet on a new one that could be added, it might have something to do with temple work... perhaps names submitted or something along those lines.
Scott Lloyd Posted April 3, 2015 Posted April 3, 2015 Will I get a countdown clock on your phone also? Would you like one?
rockpond Posted April 3, 2015 Posted April 3, 2015 (edited) Would you like one? It would be an honor. And we can almost certainly count on you being alive for the final seconds of this one. (Though I'm still hoping you'll be alive when the Dehlin clock winds down.) Edited April 3, 2015 by rockpond
Scott Lloyd Posted April 3, 2015 Posted April 3, 2015 It would be an honor. And we can almost certainly count on you being alive for the final seconds of this one. (Though I'm still hoping you'll be alive when the Dehlin clock winds down.)OK. I'll start the clock tomorrow when the statistical report is read.
JLHPROF Posted April 3, 2015 Posted April 3, 2015 No.but I like hearing about the work progressing As do I. But the same prophets that prophesied the Church growing until it fills the world also have prophecies of a whittling down of the general membership to the few faithful before Christ's coming. So, while growth in the Church fulfills prophecy, so does a hearts core of members being pulled out of the general membership.It's not the size of the Church, but the number of members willing to live all of God's laws and requirements.
Mystery Meat Posted April 3, 2015 Posted April 3, 2015 As do I. But the same prophets that prophesied the Church growing until it fills the world also have prophecies of a whittling down of the general membership to the few faithful before Christ's coming. So, while growth in the Church fulfills prophecy, so does a hearts core of members being pulled out of the general membership.It's not the size of the Church, but the number of members willing to live all of God's laws and requirements. Could you provide some of these prophecies. I am not doubting what you say (in fact I am 90% sure you are right), I would just like to see them.
Scott Lloyd Posted April 3, 2015 Posted April 3, 2015 Could you provide some of these prophecies. I am not doubting what you say (in fact I am 90% sure you are right), I would just like to see them.I think it good to bear in mind that the prophecy from Daniel's interpretation of Nubuchadnezzar's dream about the gospel filling the whole earth will have its fulfillment after the coming of Christ, not necessarily before. 1
JLHPROF Posted April 3, 2015 Posted April 3, 2015 (edited) Could you provide some of these prophecies. I am not doubting what you say (in fact I am 90% sure you are right), I would just like to see them. Here are just a few: "The majority of the members of this Church are the very elect of our God. There are some that are not so good, who care not for God, for His servant Brigham, for Heber, nor for the Twelve Apostles. But the day will come when the Lord will choose a people out of this people, upon whom he will bestow his choicest blessings. Think of the great numbers who were baptized into this Church when the Work first commenced in England, and how few there are who have stood to this day—"many are called, but few are chosen." Heber C. Kimball JD 11:145 "A people will come forth from among us, who will be zealous of good works, willing to do the bidding of the Lord, who will be taught in His ways, and who will walk in His paths" - Daniel H. Wells, Des. News, Nov. 10, 1875. "I want to say to you, my brethren, the time is coming when we will be mixed up in these now peaceful valleys, to that extent that it will be difficult to tell the face of a Saint from the face of an enemy to the people of God. Then, brethren, lookout for the great sieve. For there will be a great sifting time, and many will fall; for I say unto you there is a test, a test, A TEST coming, and who will be able to stand?" (Heber C. Kimball; Life of Heber C. Kimball by Orson F. Whitney, p. 445) "I know there is a people in the hearts core of this people, that will arise in their majesty in a day that is near at hand, and push spiritual things to the front; a people who will stand up for God." - Orson F. Whitney; Deseret News 11 August 1889 "There must be a reformation. There will be a reformation among this people but He will plead with the stronger ones of Zion, He will plead with this people, He will plead with those in high places, He will plead with the priesthood of this church, until Zion shall become clean before him. I do not know but what it would be an utter impossibility to commence and carry out some principles pertaining to Zion right in the midst of this people. They have strayed so far that to get a people who would conform to heavenly laws it may be needful to lead some from the midst of this people and commence anew in the regions round about in these mountains. - Orson Pratt JD 15:360 "Before the great day of the Lord shall come, and the day of righteousness and peace dawn upon this fair creation, two potent cleansing forces shall be in active operation. The first of these is the preparation of a choice people, purified by an application to their lives, as individuals, and a community, of the principles of the Gospel of peace. Such a body will evolve from those called Latter-Day Saints . . . and from the remnant of the whole house of Israel will emanate the nucleus or foundation from which will spring the righteous, millennial population of our globe." - George Q. Cannon; Millennial Star 42:585 "If we make a bad use of the priesthood, do you not see that the day will come when God will reckon with us, and he will take it from us and give it to those who will make better use of it?" - Heber C. Kimball, JD vol. 6, p. 125 Important to notice that NOWHERE is a there a prophecy of a total apostasy or another restoration needed. Just that God will need to set in order his house and select those from among it that will do his will.Isaiah 24:5D&C 85D&C 112:24-26We needn't worry about a great apostasy, but it would be better to not need to be set in order so much. Edited April 4, 2015 by JLHPROF 2
JLHPROF Posted April 3, 2015 Posted April 3, 2015 I think it good to bear in mind that the prophecy from Daniel's interpretation of Nubuchadnezzar's dream about the gospel filling the whole earth will have its fulfillment after the coming of Christ, not necessarily before. I was thinking more of Joseph's prophecy: "Brethren, I have been very much edified and instructed in your testimonies here tonight, but I want to say to you before the Lord, that you know no more concerning the destinies of this Church and kingdom than a babe upon its mother’s lap. You don’t comprehend it.’ I was rather surprised. He said, ‘It is only a little handful of Priesthood you see here tonight, but this Church will fill North and South America—it will fill the world’” (in Teachings of Presidents of the Church: Joseph Smith [2007], 137)." And then from among that people God will select those who are faithful to separate out, according to the other prophecies I listed.
rockpond Posted April 4, 2015 Posted April 4, 2015 No.but I like hearing about the work progressingThis is one reason why I think they might start reporting some metrics associated with temple work... the data is certainly there (given the sophistication of our systems that run the temples).I know in my stake one of the new favorite metrics to discuss is the percentage of members submitting family file names to the temple. I'm not sure where, exactly, the data comes from but I know that our Stake President receives it. Family history work was an emphasis of last year's ward conferences and I believe it has yielded fruit.
carbon dioxide Posted April 4, 2015 Posted April 4, 2015 I think it good to bear in mind that the prophecy from Daniel's interpretation of Nubuchadnezzar's dream about the gospel filling the whole earth will have its fulfillment after the coming of Christ, not necessarily before.I agree but I guess one interpret filling the whole earth not to mean majority of the people but simply members are found everywhere. Something like lighting a match and the smell of the match fills the whole room but actual molecules from that match is very small to the overall number of molecules of air in the room.
mormonnewb Posted April 4, 2015 Posted April 4, 2015 Will I get a countdown clock on your phone also? I'd say that by five reports from now the same metrics will no longer be reported (using April 2014 as baseline). I'll include this weekend as one of those five. So the deadline is the April 2019 report. Specifically, I think they'll remove some of the current metrics and possibly add new ones. If I were to place a bet on a new one that could be added, it might have something to do with temple work... perhaps names submitted or something along those lines. Does anyone pay much attention to these reports? The reason that I ask is because the numbers argue very heavily AGAINST Elder Holland's prediction of 100,000 missionaries in the field by the end of the decade (or at least, they argue against the wisdom of increasing the number of missionaries). Over the last five years, we've increased the number of missionaries from 50,000 to 80,000 and yet haven't shown any increase in convert baptisms. So if I were trying to convince the members to pony up another 20,000 missionaries, I would NOT cite these numbers in GC. That is, unless I was pretty sure that no one but the 12 of us were really paying much attention to them anyway. In that case, I might throw us a bone because otherwise, we'd have nothing to argue about. Seriously, I don't imagine that many people are keeping track of the numbers year-over-year. I suspect that most saints just listen for the big number (total membership) to see if we've crossed another million milestone (that's what I do). And in fairness, that is the only thing that one can do while hearing an oral report filled with large numbers that are read with exact precision. So I'm not sure there is any real reason to find a new metric (that we will pay just as little attention to). So Scott's countdown clock might run out on you here (but I have your back on the Dehlin clock). 1
carbon dioxide Posted April 4, 2015 Posted April 4, 2015 Does anyone pay much attention to these reports? The reason that I ask is because the numbers argue very heavily AGAINST Elder Holland's prediction of 100,000 missionaries in the field by the end of the decade (or at least, they argue against the wisdom of increasing the number of missionaries). Over the last five years, we've increased the number of missionaries from 50,000 to 80,000 and yet haven't shown any increase in convert baptisms. So if I were trying to convince the members to pony up another 20,000 missionaries, I would NOT cite these numbers in GC. That is, unless I was pretty sure that no one but the 12 of us were really paying much attention to them anyway. In that case, I might throw us a bone because otherwise, we'd have nothing to argue about. Seriously, I don't imagine that many people are keeping track of the numbers year-over-year. I suspect that most saints just listen for the big number (total membership) to see if we've crossed another million milestone (that's what I do). And in fairness, that is the only thing that one can do while hearing an oral report filled with large numbers that are read with exact precision. So I'm not sure there is any real reason to find a new metric (that we will pay just as little attention to). So Scott's countdown clock might run out on you here (but I have your back on the Dehlin clock).I really don't care about the number. I remember back in my mission days in the early 90s of there being a million or so members considered lost sheep. Basically they are on the rolls but the Church had no idea where they were. I am sure that number is bigger today. The total membership number is as meaningless as the number of 1 billion Catholics. Successful missionary work is not convert baptism. It is preaching the gospel. In my book a missionary that preaches the gospel effectively to 100 people and gets one baptism is just as effective as one that preaches to 100 people and gets 20 baptisms. Conversion is between the Lord and the investigator. It is not fair to the missionary to determine their effectiveness on the decision of the investigator that they have no control over. I see the role of the missionary to be two fold. To bring salvation to those who accept the gospel and damnation to those that choose to reject it. Their job is get people off the fence and get them to make a decision. 1
The Nehor Posted April 4, 2015 Posted April 4, 2015 I really don't care about the number. I remember back in my mission days in the early 90s of there being a million or so members considered lost sheep. Basically they are on the rolls but the Church had no idea where they were. I am sure that number is bigger today. The total membership number is as meaningless as the number of 1 billion Catholics. Last I heard roughly half the members of the Church were active. When I was on my mission we would be in wards with a 15% activity rate as many missionaries before I came out baptized the unready. I remember in my first area we went out looking for some of the less active and had a discussion with the Ward Mission Leader. If I remember correctly he said: "About 4 years back missionaries came through and would baptize loads of people and, with all due respect, they were a load of nutters." I met a lot of them. The majority were, in fact, nutters. I felt bad for the home teachers. In other areas I have seen 75%+ activity rates. The number is not meaningless. I just think of it as those who have made covenants and assume about half of them are actively trying to keep them. That is what the leadership knows. It is not a bragging point. It is a number. I suspect that we are not much better or much worse then other dispensations in this regard. 1
carbon dioxide Posted April 4, 2015 Posted April 4, 2015 The number is not meaningless. I just think of it as those who have made covenants and assume about half of them are actively trying to keep them. That is what the leadership knows. It is not a bragging point. It is a number. I suspect that we are not much better or much worse then other dispensations in this regard.It is not completely meaningless but it does not tell much about what is the true number of members. How many are counted as members but not only are inactive but have joined other faiths or have lost faith of any kind? I find the statistics about the number of wards created to be more important marker than membership totals. The Church does not make it a habit of building meetinghouses that are not going to be used.
The Nehor Posted April 4, 2015 Posted April 4, 2015 It is not completely meaningless but it does not tell much about what is the true number of members. How many are counted as members but not only are inactive but have joined other faiths or have lost faith of any kind? I find the statistics about the number of wards created to be more important marker than membership totals. The Church does not make it a habit of building meetinghouses that are not going to be used. And if it was a report on active members I would agree with you. Instead it is a measure of those who have made baptismal covenants. In our faith those covenants do not automatically lapse when you leave the church or stop believing.
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