The Grand Sign of the Coming of the Son of Man

[Kenngo1969]

I can't resist throwing this in, although it doesn't relate to "signs in heaven above," but, rather, those "in earth beneath" (@Stargazer, if you believe this is related too tangentially, or that it is unrelated, to the topic of the thread, let me know, and I will be happy to remove it).
 

Quote

 

Acts 2:17-19

17 And it shall come to pass in the last days, saith God, I will pour out of my Spirit upon all flesh: and your sons and your daughters shall prophesy, and your young men shall see visions, and your old men shall edream dreams:

18 And on my servants and on my handmaidens I will pour out in those days of my Spirit; and they shall prophesy:

19 And I will shew wonders in heaven above, and signs in the earth beneath; blood, and fire, and vapour of smoke: [Emphasis added by Kenngo1969]

 

And now, from the "signs in the earth beneath" department:

https://www.deseret.com/u-s-world/2023/7/11/23791052/iceland-fagradalsfjall-volcano-eruption-keeps-tourists-away

 

[rodheadlee]

13 hours ago, Stargazer said:

The grand sign of the coming of the son of man is the coming of the son of man himself? Seems a little self-referential, doesn't it?  Will the appearance of the glorified Jesus Christ be scoffed at as a mere astronomical event?

I suppose it could be. When people don't want to acknowledge an inconvenient fact they can become marvelously creative in finding ways of explaining the fact away.

 

This could be true though if it took years for the phenomenon to reach our solar system at a point where we could recognize it.

I'm not explaining it very well, but what if you look in the night sky for years and see this bright object heading for earth but have no idea what it is until it gets closer. What if you could see it during daylight hours too.

[rodheadlee]

20 hours ago, Sara H said:

The fact that there is not a significant indication of the second coming, which suggests that there will not be a second coming, is the grand sign of the second coming. Just a few short weeks ago, my husband and I were having a conversation about this very topic. As we were growing up, we had the misconception that we were members of the generation that had been predestined to be the Latter-day Saints who would assist Christ in establishing a theocracy on earth after his second coming. The longer I live, the less likely it is that thing will ever take place. My husband was taken aback when he began researching the history of our church because he discovered that every generation of Latter-day Saints has been instructed that their generation is the generation that is going to usher in the second coming. And now my children are of the opinion that theirs will be the generation that lives to see the return of Christ. 

 

My spouse is of the opinion that by the year 2100, only a small fraction of the population of the globe will even be aware of the fact that Christ will return. In eighty years, religion won't be anything like what we can even begin to envision it to be now. And I think that's the case. As time passes and we move further away from the turn of the millennium, the following generation will place less importance on any of the Abrahamic religions. And if there is no such thing as the latter days, how can people call themselves Latter-day Saints? I believe the brethren are aware of this, which is why there is a movement to redefine what we mean when we say "Mormonism." 

 

So, if Christ hasn't returned by the year 2050, what will happen then? How much longer do we have to wait before we start to consider the possibility that there won't be a significant sign? The name of the Latter-day Saint faith alone makes a strong assertion, more so than any other religion could possibly do so with only its name alone. Therefore, before we can discern any concrete evidence of Christ's return, the first thing we need to do is calculate how much longer the last days will last. 

 

When I joined the church back in 1983 it seemed to me the one thing that all churches agreed on is that we were living in the last days. My wife and I studied with quite a few different churches before we joined the Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-day Saints.

The Rebirth of the country of Israel was Major prophecy being fulfilled in my parents time. I believed at one time that this generation would not pass away until Christ returned. My dad's 90 now but he's doing pretty well so I guess we'll see what happens.

[Benjamin McGuire]

We shouldn't, of course, discount what those four eminent figures had to say about it:

Quote

Dr Ray Stantz: Fire and brimstone coming down from the skies. Rivers and seas boiling.

Dr. Egon Spengler: Forty years of darkness. Earthquakes, volcanoes...

Winston Zeddemore: The dead rising from the grave.

Dr. Peter Venkman: Human sacrifice, dogs and cats living together - mass hysteria.

For those of you who don't know the source, I am putting this here a bit tongue in cheek. But, the thing is, we want to have these signs - we like the idea of insider information. We want to relate the text to our own experience. And yet ... these these descriptions might be entirely symbolic. We want to provide a context about how bad things are - and yet, our present experience isn't that bad at all. We are nearing the day when all of the participants in WW2 will be gone (including the holocaust survivors). Our own experiences really don't match up to the expectations (I say this about humanity collectively - there are still some very bad places to be alive today). And Mormonism has compounded this a bit with its ongoing teaching that the most valiant souls were saved for those last days - the desire to find ourselves in the last days is perhaps, as much an effort to center ourselves in that idea of our being the most valiant. We can look around and find many, many expectations for the end that have been wrong - and it leads me to believe that we are (collectively) looking at all of this in the wrong way. It is far more likely that all of us are wrong together than that one of us has uniquely figured it out ... it is hard (to use the example just provided) to take a volcanic eruption in Iceland as signifying anything. Why? Iceland gets, on average, a volcanic eruption every four years. It's not a sign, it's a normal thing - just one that isn't normal for most of us in the context of our every day experience.

I have no expectation of an imminent second coming. I do not expect it in the lifetime of my children. I don't really expect it in the lifetimes of their children. And my focus is elsewhere - trying to be a better husband, father, grandfather, and in general, a better human being. The message of the gospel of Jesus Christ isn't esoteric. It isn't hidden. It is about who we are as individuals and what we do.

[rodheadlee]

It would only take about 30 minutes to send the world into a tailspin. 

[Stargazer]

3 hours ago, Benjamin McGuire said:

We shouldn't, of course, discount what those four eminent figures had to say about it:

I've watched that film more times that I care to admit, and your quoting from it made me laugh out loud!

3 hours ago, Benjamin McGuire said:

For those of you who don't know the source, I am putting this here a bit tongue in cheek. But, the thing is, we want to have these signs - we like the idea of insider information. We want to relate the text to our own experience. And yet ... these these descriptions might be entirely symbolic. We want to provide a context about how bad things are - and yet, our present experience isn't that bad at all. We are nearing the day when all of the participants in WW2 will be gone (including the holocaust survivors). Our own experiences really don't match up to the expectations (I say this about humanity collectively - there are still some very bad places to be alive today). And Mormonism has compounded this a bit with its ongoing teaching that the most valiant souls were saved for those last days - the desire to find ourselves in the last days is perhaps, as much an effort to center ourselves in that idea of our being the most valiant. We can look around and find many, many expectations for the end that have been wrong - and it leads me to believe that we are (collectively) looking at all of this in the wrong way. It is far more likely that all of us are wrong together than that one of us has uniquely figured it out ... it is hard (to use the example just provided) to take a volcanic eruption in Iceland as signifying anything. Why? Iceland gets, on average, a volcanic eruption every four years. It's not a sign, it's a normal thing - just one that isn't normal for most of us in the context of our every day experience.

As I've pointed out to @Sara H, I'm a fat old guy, and have seen many summers come and go. Events have happened. You young whippersnappers think your world have changed, but I've seen more of it. When I was born, the Korean War was in full swing. Just a couple of weeks before my arrival, MacArthur's landing at Inchon and the breakout of the Pusan perimeter had just taken place. My Dad, a former Marine, had gotten out just barely in time to avoid being involved in all this. I might not have been born if he hadn't. 

Nobody thinks volcanos in Iceland mean anything other than earth's "business as usual". Same with all the other volcanos we hear about all the time. Maybe if we get one of the supervolcanos going off it might raise some concerns. But this would probably be less concern over the 2nd Coming and more about the next few years and the resultant volcanic winter. 

3 hours ago, Benjamin McGuire said:

I have no expectation of an imminent second coming. I do not expect it in the lifetime of my children. I don't really expect it in the lifetimes of their children.

If I don't see it in my lifetime I won't be disappointed. Past that I really don't care all that much. I'll be too busy on the other side to worry about what's happening here. We don't talk much about patriarchal blessings on this forum, but mine strongly intimates that I will be very busy after I shuffle off this mortal coil.

But it wouldn't surprise me if it did happen in my lifetime. Not that I have a lot of that left.

3 hours ago, Benjamin McGuire said:

 

And my focus is elsewhere - trying to be a better husband, father, grandfather, and in general, a better human being. The message of the gospel of Jesus Christ isn't esoteric. It isn't hidden. It is about who we are as individuals and what we do.

That is absolutely where our focus must be, above all, but...

Let me bring this scripture to the fore one more time:

DC 45:39 And it shall come to pass that he that feareth me shall be looking forth for the great day of the Lord to come, even for the signs of the coming of the Son of Man.

This is a canonized revelation, not an offhand remark of Joseph Smith's. It contains very imperative words. He is saying "If you fear the Lord, you shall be looking for those signs." The Lord's words here, in my opinion, are a command, not a suggestion. So, whether the great day of the Lord comes tomorrow, or comes in a hundred years, we are advised to keep looking. And not to roll our eyes, thinking "Not that again! Sheesh!"

[Navidad]

My contribution is to acknowledge that methods of Biblical teaching include allegories, metaphors, and parables. Biblical apocalyptic literature is replete with each. I have never met anyone with special insight into which is which or how exactly to interpret any of these styles of literature. I know that growing up in the 1950s when my dad was a huge fan of literal prophetic teaching and preaching that he was positive of the imminent nature of the Lord's return. I was also a late teenager in the sixties with all of the Hal Lindsey "Late Great Planet Earth" hoopla.

I am now an old man, happily sitting at my desk, more worried about still being a good husband to my wife tomorrow that about imminence. Many years ago I went through a lot of what some of you are wrestling with now.  My contribution - forget about it! Not me. . . . not you . . . not anyone will know the how, why, when, or bottom-line "if" of eternity. Have faith and trust that God knows and we don't. Oh, and He isn't telling either. As we said as a kid, God's perspective is "That's for me to know and you to find out!" Where are we in the seventy week prophecy timeline?????

Me? I just would like one more day to work on my thesis and perhaps live long enough to graduate. After that, as long as I have my wife beside me, everything else is, as my mom would say, "gravy." Perhaps mashed potatoes with gray, with a dollop of horseradish on the side! I used to have horses here - four of then to be exact. I sold them all - no more four horsemen in my corral. Best to all.

[Stargazer]

Leaving aside Betelgeuse as a grand sign of the second coming, it's still interesting.

@Benjamin McGuire I commented earlier that just because the star isn't done fusing carbon, doesn't make us safe from core collapse, because while it is fusing carbon, it continues to fuse hydrogen and helium in other layers. My reading says that this is actually a rather unstable situation, and we do not know the effects of this and how it affects the eventual core collapse. A video published yesterday gives some interesting further information, including what effects Betelgeuse's rotation may affect the situation. Here it is... Though the clickbaity title might throw you off, it is not offering a wild-eyed prediction, but is commenting on a pre-print paper about the subject that hasn't been peer-reviewed yet. The videographer explains why he comments on the paper despite not being peer-reviewed: because rebuttals are already being posted. 

Edited to add: I didn't notice it at first, but the paper the guy is referencing is the same paper that launched this thread, with Saio as the principal author. But the video goes into detail that the Anton Petrov video does not.

 

Edited July 12, 2023 by Stargazer

[Anijen]

Where is Nofear when you need him?

[Kenngo1969]

3 hours ago, Anijen said:

Where is Nofear when you need him?

Speaking of which, where have you been?   

Good to see you!  

[The Nehor]

We are in the middle of something a lot of historians call “The Long Peace” that started after the Second World War. Military conflict is down worldwide. The economic incentives have moved away from armed conflict. In pre-industrial society if you had the resources to either develop the land you had to increase productivity or to assemble a military to get more land and the people to work it the latter gave better returns (assuming you win of course). Now you conquer land and you usually wreck its productivity and kill more of the population. Conflict may resurge but most of the conflicts and hotspots are revanchist powers try to retake territory they lost or think belongs to them and it doesn’t generally go well for them. In the old setup someone would have invaded Venezuela by now to get the resources but the calculus shows that it would cost more to rebuild everything that would be broken taking it.

Yeah, the United States has been in several conflicts but we are the hegemonic world power and get involved in a lot more conflicts. Comparing it to previous hegemonic powers we are still getting off easy in terms of the number of conflicts we get involved in. Of course that is cold comfort to the people fighting in the conflict but there are per capita less of them going to fight in it.

I keep hearing that we are on the verge of massive conflict due to prophecy but I don’t see it. Russia has been exposed as a paper tiger with only its nuclear threat credible. If Poland joined the conflict on the side of Ukraine it would probably be a decisive victory in a few months. If the US and NATO joined in it would take a few weeks. China hasn’t fought a conventional war in a long time and there is a serious question as to how effective they would be in a conflict.

Of course anything could happen but the doom and gloom lament of the world’s conflicts increasing as the Second Coming rapidly approaches is very silly.

Natural disasters are increasing but many of those have causes we can attribute them to. This at least has a good chance of getting worse.

[Kenngo1969]

@The Nehor,

All of which, while incredibly fascinating, has absolutely nothing to do with the topic of the thread.

Just sayin'!

[The Nehor]

4 hours ago, Kenngo1969 said:

@The Nehor,

All of which, while incredibly fascinating, has absolutely nothing to do with the topic of the thread.

Just sayin'!

It does apply to some of the comments in this thread about conflicts though.

[Stargazer]

13 hours ago, The Nehor said:

We are in the middle of something a lot of historians call “The Long Peace” that started after the Second World War. Military conflict is down worldwide. The economic incentives have moved away from armed conflict. In pre-industrial society if you had the resources to either develop the land you had to increase productivity or to assemble a military to get more land and the people to work it the latter gave better returns (assuming you win of course). Now you conquer land and you usually wreck its productivity and kill more of the population. Conflict may resurge but most of the conflicts and hotspots are revanchist powers try to retake territory they lost or think belongs to them and it doesn’t generally go well for them. In the old setup someone would have invaded Venezuela by now to get the resources but the calculus shows that it would cost more to rebuild everything that would be broken taking it.

Yeah, the United States has been in several conflicts but we are the hegemonic world power and get involved in a lot more conflicts. Comparing it to previous hegemonic powers we are still getting off easy in terms of the number of conflicts we get involved in. Of course that is cold comfort to the people fighting in the conflict but there are per capita less of them going to fight in it.

I keep hearing that we are on the verge of massive conflict due to prophecy but I don’t see it. Russia has been exposed as a paper tiger with only its nuclear threat credible. If Poland joined the conflict on the side of Ukraine it would probably be a decisive victory in a few months. If the US and NATO joined in it would take a few weeks. China hasn’t fought a conventional war in a long time and there is a serious question as to how effective they would be in a conflict.

Of course anything could happen but the doom and gloom lament of the world’s conflicts increasing as the Second Coming rapidly approaches is very silly.

Natural disasters are increasing but many of those have causes we can attribute them to. This at least has a good chance of getting worse.

[I didn't really want to respond to you here, since I'd effectively be thread-jacking my own thread, but whatever. Perhaps we don't need to interact over this, if you feel inclined to read the book I'm about to mention. I don't have a "position" to defend on this, just that I've found the book and its author to be quite interesting and what he says to be very eye-opening. I don't know what his politics are, not that it matters. You might be tempted to disregard anything I post on non-gospel topics because of our political differences, but I urge you to disregard that difference for this post.]

As Kenngo said, this is off-topic (actual topic is the Betelgeuse supernova as a sign of the second coming), but you make some good observations. I fully agree with what you bring up in the idea of "the long peace" since the end of WW2. I'm a Boomer, and I have noticed this over my lifetime. 

But it may be ending. Are you familiar with Peter Zeihan, the geopolitical analyst and author? His book, The Accidental Superpower, attributes this "long peace" to the ascendancy of the US, and its willingness to be the international guarantor of global commerce. But, he says, this will soon be ending, because the US is losing interest in the job. From the Amazon UK description:

"In THE ACCIDENTAL SUPERPOWER, international strategist Peter Zeihan examines how the hard rules of geography are eroding the American commitment to free trade; how much of the planet is aging into a mass retirement that will enervate capital supplies; and how it is the ever-ravenous American economy that is rapidly approaching energy independence. Combined, these factors are overturning the global system and ushering in a new (dis)order. For most, that is a disaster-in-waiting, but not for the Americans. The shale revolution allows Americans to sidestep a dangerous energy market. Only the U.S. boasts a youth population large enough to escape the sucking maw of global aging. Geography will matter more than ever in a de-globalizing world, and America's geography is simply sublime."

I've been reading this book, and if Zeihan is right, we are gradually moving towards a different kind of time. The "long peace" may be ending. The Americans might be fine, but the rest of the world maybe not so much.

He did an interview with Joe Rogan, parts of which I've seen (it's a long show, as usual for Rogan), but I've not been able to track down the full show for free (not necessarily wanting to pay for Rogan's show). I found a long-form interview with Zeihan on the Chris Williamson show on YouTube that seems to cover a lot of the material in the book. You may or may not find it interesting: The New World Order Is Here: Brace for the Collapse - Peter Zeihan

As I said, we needn't discuss this, but I just thought you would find it interesting.

What do you think about Betelgeuse's supernova being a sign of the second coming?

[The Nehor]

10 hours ago, Stargazer said:

[I didn't really want to respond to you here, since I'd effectively be thread-jacking my own thread, but whatever. Perhaps we don't need to interact over this, if you feel inclined to read the book I'm about to mention. I don't have a "position" to defend on this, just that I've found the book and its author to be quite interesting and what he says to be very eye-opening. I don't know what his politics are, not that it matters. You might be tempted to disregard anything I post on non-gospel topics because of our political differences, but I urge you to disregard that difference for this post.]

As Kenngo said, this is off-topic (actual topic is the Betelgeuse supernova as a sign of the second coming), but you make some good observations. I fully agree with what you bring up in the idea of "the long peace" since the end of WW2. I'm a Boomer, and I have noticed this over my lifetime. 

But it may be ending. Are you familiar with Peter Zeihan, the geopolitical analyst and author? His book, The Accidental Superpower, attributes this "long peace" to the ascendancy of the US, and its willingness to be the international guarantor of global commerce. But, he says, this will soon be ending, because the US is losing interest in the job. From the Amazon UK description:

"In THE ACCIDENTAL SUPERPOWER, international strategist Peter Zeihan examines how the hard rules of geography are eroding the American commitment to free trade; how much of the planet is aging into a mass retirement that will enervate capital supplies; and how it is the ever-ravenous American economy that is rapidly approaching energy independence. Combined, these factors are overturning the global system and ushering in a new (dis)order. For most, that is a disaster-in-waiting, but not for the Americans. The shale revolution allows Americans to sidestep a dangerous energy market. Only the U.S. boasts a youth population large enough to escape the sucking maw of global aging. Geography will matter more than ever in a de-globalizing world, and America's geography is simply sublime."

I've been reading this book, and if Zeihan is right, we are gradually moving towards a different kind of time. The "long peace" may be ending. The Americans might be fine, but the rest of the world maybe not so much.

He did an interview with Joe Rogan, parts of which I've seen (it's a long show, as usual for Rogan), but I've not been able to track down the full show for free (not necessarily wanting to pay for Rogan's show). I found a long-form interview with Zeihan on the Chris Williamson show on YouTube that seems to cover a lot of the material in the book. You may or may not find it interesting: The New World Order Is Here: Brace for the Collapse - Peter Zeihan

As I said, we needn't discuss this, but I just thought you would find it interesting.

It is an interesting idea but I don't attribute the current situation entirely to the United States ascendancy. While it is a caretaker of the current geopolitical order most of the world and especially the parts of the world that have the economic and military muscle to do something about it like the current status quo. If the US steps down or steps back I suspect the current order will continue. I base this primarily on how oddly things are going. Normally when a hegemonic power like the United States rises up the peer and near-peer rivals band together to combat it. Instead most of the mid-tier powers allied with the hegemonic power. The rules have changed. We are still in the beginning of sorting out what an industrialized world's geopolitics are but I don't think we will go back to business as usual. The response to the invasion of Ukraine has demonstrated that most of the world is not okay with pre-WWII sphere of influence politics anymore. Who knows what the future holds but I don't think it will revert to interstate anarchy again.

10 hours ago, Stargazer said:

What do you think about Betelgeuse's supernova being a sign of the second coming?

From what I have read I don't think Betelgeuse is likely for quite a while. Statistically it is likely the next supernova in our galaxy will be some unknown star.

If God wanted to put on a show I would bet on Eta Carinae. It would be pretty bright and while the impact on the Earth itself would be minimal it could knock out satellites and spacecraft and kill astronauts. It is hard to know how far along it is since there are at least two stars there and we don't know exactly how having another star or stars around would impact when it goes BOOM or the nature of the boom. Alarmists have suggested it could fire off a gamma ray burst that would annihilate most or all life on Earth. This is unlikely. Eta Carinae is far enough away that we really don't have a good grasp of when it will pop off. It is one of those could blow tomorrow or could blow in a hundred thousand years or longer.

If God wanted to burn the Earth a powerful enough gamma ray burst would do it and it could happen but that wouldn't be a sign. It would be the end of the world. It is unlikely though. The source would have to be close to the Earth to produce an extinction event and we haven't found any potential sources close enough.

Edited July 20, 2023 by The Nehor

[Stargazer]

6 hours ago, The Nehor said:

It is an interesting idea but I don't attribute the current situation entirely to the United States ascendancy. While it is a caretaker of the current geopolitical order most of the world and especially the parts of the world that have the economic and military muscle to do something about it like the current status quo. If the US steps down or steps back I suspect the current order will continue. I base this primarily on how oddly things are going. Normally when a hegemonic power like the United States rises up the peer and near-peer rivals band together to combat it. Instead most of the mid-tier powers allied with the hegemonic power. The rules have changed. We are still in the beginning of sorting out what an industrialized world's geopolitics are but I don't think we will go back to business as usual. The response to the invasion of Ukraine has demonstrated that most of the world is not okay with pre-WWII sphere of influence politics anymore. Who knows what the future holds but I don't think it will revert to interstate anarchy again.

Well, we shall see! Or not. But Zeihan's qualifications suggest he may be in a position to know something most people don't. 

6 hours ago, The Nehor said:

From what I have read I don't think Betelgeuse is likely for quite a while. Statistically it is likely the next supernova in our galaxy will be some unknown star.

There are certainly some currently unknown stars in our galaxy which could pop off as supernovae and surprise us. But these would most likely be supernova candidates that are not visible to us (even in telescopes) due to being behind the galactic disk. And thus very likely they would not be evident to the naked-eye as supernovae, even if viewable by naked eye. 

6 hours ago, The Nehor said:

If God wanted to put on a show I would bet on Eta Carinae. It would be pretty bright and while the impact on the Earth itself would be minimal it could knock out satellites and spacecraft and kill astronauts. It is hard to know how far along it is since there are at least two stars there and we don't know exactly how having another star or stars around would impact when it goes BOOM or the nature of the boom. Alarmists have suggested it could fire off a gamma ray burst that would annihilate most or all life on Earth. This is unlikely. Eta Carinae is far enough away that we really don't have a good grasp of when it will pop off. It is one of those could blow tomorrow or could blow in a hundred thousand years or longer.

Familiar information! You may have been reading the same things I have read about Eta Carinae. Whereas there is some idea in the astronomy community that we are expecting a serious show with Betelgeuse, and it is going to be "astronomically soon," the unique characteristics of Eta Carinae that you reference make any kind of time-scale prediction in its case largely guesswork. At 7,500ish light-years from Earth, Eta Car isn't going to be anywhere near as bright as Betelgeuse. One source I read suggested it would be magnitude -4, or about as bright as Venus. And you and I wouldn't see it, anyway, because it's a southern hemisphere star, not visible from any point on earth north of Cairo, Egypt.

Eta Car's particular situation as regards how its fusion processes are going (as well as the nature of its binary system) make it extremely unique -- no other known star has its profile. It had a brightness outburst back around 1840 that apparently threw off a large portion of its atmosphere (maybe 20 solar masses), and now we're seeing it through the large layer of "crud" (hydrogen and helium, mostly) that resulted. They aren't sure about much -- but it is still fusing hydrogen, predominantly by the CNO cycle. This suggests that a supernova outburst is still far to the future, even if it will be "astronomically soon." Which is why I think Betelgeuse will precede it, because Betelgeuse is now fusing carbon in its core.

6 hours ago, The Nehor said:

If God wanted to burn the Earth a powerful enough gamma ray burst would do it and it could happen but that wouldn't be a sign. It would be the end of the world. It is unlikely though. The source would have to be close to the Earth to produce an extinction event and we haven't found any potential sources close enough.

Correct. In fact, Betelgeuse is the only close supernova candidate. And at its distance there is no possibility it could cause an extinction event. Betelgeuse would have to be at least 50 light-years distant to be that. Although once believed to be further away, recent observations indicate that it is still too distant, at 548 light-years, to be any real danger (except to satellites and astronauts, I suppose).

The Homunculus Nebula containing Eta Carinae is sufficiently beautiful, that I must insert a Hubble telescope photo of it!

[The Nehor]

4 hours ago, Stargazer said:

Well, we shall see! Or not. But Zeihan's qualifications suggest he may be in a position to know something most people don't. 

While I have some quibbles with this I think it is a good breakdown of the current geopolitical order:

https://acoup.blog/2023/07/07/collections-the-status-quo-coalition/

4 hours ago, Stargazer said:

Familiar information! You may have been reading the same things I have read about Eta Carinae. Whereas there is some idea in the astronomy community that we are expecting a serious show with Betelgeuse, and it is going to be "astronomically soon," the unique characteristics of Eta Carinae that you reference make any kind of time-scale prediction in its case largely guesswork. At 7,500ish light-years from Earth, Eta Car isn't going to be anywhere near as bright as Betelgeuse. One source I read suggested it would be magnitude -4, or about as bright as Venus. And you and I wouldn't see it, anyway, because it's a southern hemisphere star, not visible from any point on earth north of Cairo, Egypt.

Eta Car's particular situation as regards how its fusion processes are going (as well as the nature of its binary system) make it extremely unique -- no other known star has its profile. It had a brightness outburst back around 1840 that apparently threw off a large portion of its atmosphere (maybe 20 solar masses), and now we're seeing it through the large layer of "crud" (hydrogen and helium, mostly) that resulted. They aren't sure about much -- but it is still fusing hydrogen, predominantly by the CNO cycle. This suggests that a supernova outburst is still far to the future, even if it will be "astronomically soon." Which is why I think Betelgeuse will precede it, because Betelgeuse is now fusing carbon in its core.

Correct. In fact, Betelgeuse is the only close supernova candidate. And at its distance there is no possibility it could cause an extinction event. Betelgeuse would have to be at least 50 light-years distant to be that. Although once believed to be further away, recent observations indicate that it is still too distant, at 548 light-years, to be any real danger (except to satellites and astronauts, I suppose).

While Betelgeuse looks to be fusing carbon most of what I have read suggests it is still early in that process. We could be wrong but most of what I have read suggests the explosion is still centuries out. Eta Carinae is a bit confusing. Again I am going off what I have read and it is a bit dated at this point some think the largest star in Eta Carinae is further along.

And to those reading note that when we talk about something being years or centuries out we mean time until we see it. If Betelgeuse is a sign and the Second Coming is soon (in human and not astronomical terms) then Betelgeuse has blown up already and it probably happened centuries ago. We are waiting for the light to get here. Betelgeuse is over 600 light years away. Eta Carinae is over 7,000 light years away and would have had to have exploded before the first Old Testament books were written.

[Stargazer]

5 hours ago, The Nehor said:

While Betelgeuse looks to be fusing carbon most of what I have read suggests it is still early in that process. We could be wrong but most of what I have read suggests the explosion is still centuries out. Eta Carinae is a bit confusing. Again I am going off what I have read and it is a bit dated at this point some think the largest star in Eta Carinae is further along.

The paper that I mentioned in the OP seems to be unsure about how far along it is in carbon fusing. Consider this, however, that while carbon is fusing, early or late in the process, it is producing iron. Thus the core is collecting iron at some rate. The iron core is thus growing. Do we know how much iron it takes before there isn't enough active carbon fusion going on to maintain homeostasis? I don't think we do (I'd like to find out if we have a decent idea). We're watching to see what actually happens, and it is kind of exciting! Could be centuries, could be decades, could be tomorrow! No, probably not tomorrow.

Eta Car is very complex. Some astrophysicists believe that it may possibly be not going supernova, but hypernova, due to a huge buildup of ejected material, which is the case for both Eta Car and Betelgeuse, but especially Eta Car. It seems to have thrown off 17% of its mass in the 1840s outburst. Not much is known about Eta Car B, including its mass, which is estimated to be 30 to 80 solar masses. Some astrophysicists have suspected that its 1840s outburst was due to Eta Car A swallowing a third stellar component. How far along is Eta Car A? It's currently still fusing hydrogen in the CNO process (which very large stars use in preference to the process the sun uses). But whether it's doing this in the core, or elsewhere isn't clear. So, heck, it could be fusing carbon at its core, too. 

Another fascinating future tale in the making!

5 hours ago, The Nehor said:

And to those reading note that when we talk about something being years or centuries out we mean time until we see it. If Betelgeuse is a sign and the Second Coming is soon (in human and not astronomical terms) then Betelgeuse has blown up already and it probably happened centuries ago. We are waiting for the light to get here. Betelgeuse is over 600 light years away. Eta Carinae is over 7,000 light years away and would have had to have exploded before the first Old Testament books were written.

I think this was mentioned in the thread, yes.

[The Nehor]

1 hour ago, Stargazer said:

The paper that I mentioned in the OP seems to be unsure about how far along it is in carbon fusing. Consider this, however, that while carbon is fusing, early or late in the process, it is producing iron. Thus the core is collecting iron at some rate. The iron core is thus growing. Do we know how much iron it takes before there isn't enough active carbon fusion going on to maintain homeostasis? I don't think we do (I'd like to find out if we have a decent idea). We're watching to see what actually happens, and it is kind of exciting! Could be centuries, could be decades, could be tomorrow! No, probably not tomorrow.

Eta Car is very complex. Some astrophysicists believe that it may possibly be not going supernova, but hypernova, due to a huge buildup of ejected material, which is the case for both Eta Car and Betelgeuse, but especially Eta Car. It seems to have thrown off 17% of its mass in the 1840s outburst. Not much is known about Eta Car B, including its mass, which is estimated to be 30 to 80 solar masses. Some astrophysicists have suspected that its 1840s outburst was due to Eta Car A swallowing a third stellar component. How far along is Eta Car A? It's currently still fusing hydrogen in the CNO process (which very large stars use in preference to the process the sun uses). But whether it's doing this in the core, or elsewhere isn't clear. So, heck, it could be fusing carbon at its core, too. 

Another fascinating future tale in the making!

The current estimate is that once a star starts fusing silicon into iron it takes less than a day to explode. It basically accelerates. Silicon is usually only fused for about a week, oxygen for a year, and carbon takes a millenia. The end of the process is quick.

[Stargazer]

10 hours ago, The Nehor said:

The current estimate is that once a star starts fusing silicon into iron it takes less than a day to explode. It basically accelerates. Silicon is usually only fused for about a week, oxygen for a year, and carbon takes a millenia. The end of the process is quick.

Yep. There's a nifty chart of the timescales for each of these steps in the original paper.

[Anijen]

On 7/19/2023 at 3:38 AM, Kenngo1969 said:

Speaking of which, where have you been?   

Good to see you!  

Last time I was on here it was getting very political. I have been Busy with my job. I am thinking about moving to Alaska and practicing up there.

[telnetd]

On 6/29/2023 at 2:45 PM, Benjamin McGuire said:

And if we really want to parse the non-canonical statement by Joseph Smith about the grand sign

There will be wars and rumors of wars, signs in the heavens above and on the earth beneath, the sun
turned into darkness and the moon to blood, earthquakes in divers places, the seas heaving beyond
their bounds; then will appear one grand sign of the Son of Man in heaven. But what will the world do?
They will say it is a planet, a comet, etc. But the Son of man will come as the sign of the coming of the
Son of Man, which will be as the light of the morning cometh out of the east” (Joseph Smith, Teachings
of the Prophet Joseph Smith, 286–87).

Sounds like a prophecy instead of a non-canonical statement.

[Calm]

On 7/26/2023 at 10:54 AM, telnetd said:

There will be wars and rumors of wars, signs in the heavens above and on the earth beneath, the sun
turned into darkness and the moon to blood, earthquakes in divers places, the seas heaving beyond
their bounds; then will appear one grand sign of the Son of Man in heaven. But what will the world do?
They will say it is a planet, a comet, etc. But the Son of man will come as the sign of the coming of the
Son of Man, which will be as the light of the morning cometh out of the east” (Joseph Smith, Teachings
of the Prophet Joseph Smith, 286–87).

Sounds like a prophecy instead of a non-canonical statement.

It can be both, but is there anything there that couldn’t be pulled from scripture?  And to conclude how the world will react doesn’t require a vision of the future in my view.

Edited July 31, 2023 by Calm

[telnetd]

On 7/31/2023 at 4:33 PM, Calm said:

It can be both, but is there anything there that couldn’t be pulled from scripture?  And to conclude how the world will react doesn’t require a vision of the future in my view.

Joseph Smith pulled from the vision/prophecy of the future given by Jesus in Matthew 24:29-31.

 

[rodheadlee]

We might not know the hour or the day but we know the season. Matthew 24 verse 32 through 34.