Covid cases, hospitalizations, death trends and other touchy subjects…

[Bernard Gui]

17 minutes ago, Calm said:

 However, I agree that if medicine comes up with a comparable safe treatment/preventative for lung cancer and obesity or anything else that is a signify problem and there are people refusing to use these solutions based on unfounded conspiracy theories or vague fears, there will likely be a great increase of public condemnation by others for not taking advantage of those treatments/preventatives because that is how humans behave. 

To the point of condemning them to death? Sorry, I won’t go there. Not even as a joke. 

[pogi]

2 minutes ago, Bernard Gui said:

Giving due diligence to your audience is really commendable. The same kind of attention to detail would be beneficial when folks are told to mask up. That’s not asking too much. 

Thanks.

@Bernard Gui and @juliann and @smac97

I really do like you guys (most of the time) despite my absolute frustration with the events of the day which are emotionally spilling over into this thread.  I think this has gotten the better of us. I apologize for any misunderstandings.  I really do just want what is best for the community I serve in public health, and for our nation, and world, but my emotions are getting the better of me.  I hope that we can all see eye to eye someday and speak and share in ways that make a difference for good in saving lives, reducing suffering, and relieving the blessed hospital workers who are experiencing all of this at a level that I wouldn't wish on anybody.  We all seem to believe the same things - masks (I hope I will not be called out for not clarifying that different masks offer different levels of protection here) and vaccines save lives.  I hope we can work towards reducing doubt in these areas.  This should be the American cause, but people who seem to agree in America can't seem to agree on anything anymore.  I am at a loss.  I am emotionally spent over Covid. I need some time away. 

 

[Bernard Gui]

19 minutes ago, pogi said:

Thanks.

@Bernard Gui and @juliann and @smac97

I really do like you guys (most of the time) despite my absolute frustration with the events of the day which are emotionally spilling over into this thread.  I think this has gotten the better of us. I apologize for any misunderstandings.  I really do just want what is best for the community I serve in public health, and for our nation, and world, but my emotions are getting the better of me.  I hope that we can all see eye to eye someday and speak and share in ways that make a difference for good in saving lives, reducing suffering, and relieving the blessed hospital workers who are experiencing all of this at a level that I wouldn't wish on anybody.  We all seem to believe the same things - masks (I hope I will not be called out for not clarifying that different masks offer different levels of protection here) and vaccines save lives.  I hope we can work towards reducing doubt in these areas.  This should be the American cause, but people who seem to agree in America can't seem to agree on anything anymore.  I am at a loss.  I am emotionally spent over Covid. I need some time away. 

 

Sounds like we are in cahoots.

Vaya con Dios, cuate.

Edited September 9, 2021 by Bernard Gui

[SeekingUnderstanding]

38 minutes ago, Bernard Gui said:

So you stand with Kimmel?

As a means of venting frustration (among the vaccinated people that watch his show)? Yes. In actual practice (I.e. turn the unvaccinated away at hospitals)? No*. It’s hyperbole. As one prong in a multi prong effort to encourage vaccination? Not sure. Shame and shunning can be a motivator, but it can also put people off. 

*I am definitely in favor of charging more for both health insurance and care for those that are unvaccinated though by choice (I.e. without a health exemption). 

[Calm]

I know I need a vaccination from the debate, though I still want the info thread available for stuff like bsjkki just posted on how antibodies morph over time (the body is so cool).

I have asked for the thread to be locked, but it might not happen for awhile.  And of course if anyone is eager to continue or start a conversation, they should start their own thread.   

[Tacenda]

42 minutes ago, Calm said:

I know I need a vaccination from the debate, though I still want the info thread available for stuff like bsjkki just posted on how antibodies morph over time (the body is so cool).

I have asked for the thread to be locked, but it might not happen for awhile.  And of course if anyone is eager to continue or start a conversation, they should start their own thread.   

I appreciated this thread, and the freedom to post. I learned that we all need to do what we think is best, and ultimately do no harm.

Today I worked half day in a 1st grade class with a hearing impaired little boy with hearing aids. I was wearing my mask, and before going into the school I made sure to check the sides to make sure there wasn't a gap...thanks to Juliann and Gui.  

But when I found out that I needed to wear a mic connected to this boy's hearing aid, I asked the teacher who was there but in another room testing, if it'd be best to not wear it, and she didn't say yes, but I could tell from her face it might interfere with him hearing me speak so I took the mask off. So I think we all need to do the best we can and understand how situations are all different. 

Edited September 9, 2021 by Tacenda

[Calm]

27 minutes ago, Calm said:

need a vaccination from the debate

That was supposed to be vacation…don’t know if that was an auto correct or my mind stuck on a hamster wheel. 

[Tacenda]

3 minutes ago, Calm said:

That was supposed to be vacation…don’t know if that was an auto correct or my mind stuck on a hamster wheel. 

I thought it fit perfectly, haha!

[Bernard Gui]

I’m reminded of the controversial story about the death of the great Russian composer Peter Tchaikovsky.

Russia suffered greatly in the world-wide cholera epidemic of the 1880s. It was common knowledge that cholera is transmitted through tainted water, so the government imposed strict regulations on hygiene and potable water. Tchaikovsky foolishly (or intentionally?) drank a glass of unboiled water at a restaurant or in his brother’s home and died from cholera a few days later.

I don’t believe Tchaikovsky deserved to die because he made a foolish and tragic error. Even with the best of information, people still make errors of judgment. It’s human nature. That is the wild card that gets dealt.

 

 

 

 

Edited September 9, 2021 by Bernard Gui

[Bernard Gui]

33 minutes ago, Calm said:

I know I need a vaccination from the debate, though I still want the info thread available for stuff like bsjkki just posted on how antibodies morph over time (the body is so cool).

I have asked for the thread to be locked, but it might not happen for awhile.  And of course if anyone is eager to continue or start a conversation, they should start their own thread.   

😉alert

You sure know how to pick ‘em! 

[Calm]

6 minutes ago, Tacenda said:

I thought it fit perfectly, haha!

Definitely works either way.

[Hamba Tuhan]

10 hours ago, rongo said:

No, polio is vastly more potentially dangerous than Covid is ... I don't think comparing polio to Covid is apt. 

According to the CDC, 72 per cent of those infected with poliovirus are asymptomatic.

For nearly all of the remaining 28 per cent, symptoms are similar to influenza and clear up in 2-5 days.

Only 0.5 per cent of those infected with poliovirus ever develop paralysis or weakness in arms or legs.

Of the less than 0.5 per cent who develop paralysis, on average only about 6 per cent die from it.

This means that polio has a 'survival rate' of around 99.97 per cent (with another 0.47 per cent suffering long-term effects).

Another way of phrasing this is that the infection fatality rate of polio is 0.03 per cent.

A study published in JAMA in January this year used CDC seroprevalence data to estimate actual (i.e. underreported) infection rates in the US through November 2020. It found that Covid at that point had an actual hospitalisation rate of 2.04 per cent and an infection fatality rate of 0.65 per cent. (This is considerably lower than the estimated 2 per cent case fatality rate, which only considers diagnosed cases.)

If accurate, these data mean that Covid-19 has an infection fatality rate 21.6 times greater than poliovirus. It also means that Covid has been killing 1.38 times more Americans than polio leaves with long-term health impacts.

So yes, you are right that it is not apt to compare polio to Covid ... but not for the reason you think. Covid is actually 'vastly more potentially dangerous'.

Edited September 9, 2021 by Hamba Tuhan

[Bernard Gui]

1 hour ago, SeekingUnderstanding said:

As a means of venting frustration (among the vaccinated people that watch his show)? Yes. In actual practice (I.e. turn the unvaccinated away at hospitals)? No*. It’s hyperbole. As one prong in a multi prong effort to encourage vaccination? Not sure. Shame and shunning can be a motivator, but it can also put people off. 

*I am definitely in favor of charging more for both health insurance and care for those that are unvaccinated though by choice (I.e. without a health exemption). 

🙃alert

Ironically, many of those self-righteous vaccinated fans who cheered his morbid joke may have willfully spread the virus to their vaccinated seat mates. I’m assuming those weren’t canned cheers. How could a responsible person host a show with a live audience in the midst of a raging epidemic?  Why would any responsible person go to such a show knowing there is a pandemic raging around them and they could catch or transmit the disease there even if they wear masks and are vaccinated? Perhaps those little COVID dudes are woke enough not to target his audience but only seek out those Right-Wing yahoos who deserve to die? 

Reminds me of Edgar Allan Poe’s “The Mask (Masque) of the Red Death.” Kimmel as Prince Prospero and his sycophantic audience as the elites holed up in his palace. Who is that masked man?

end 🙃 alert

Irresponsible celebrity sending confusing messages

QED

Edited September 9, 2021 by Bernard Gui

[Bernard Gui]

49 minutes ago, Tacenda said:

I appreciated this thread, and the freedom to post. I learned that we all need to do what we think is best, and ultimately do no harm.

Today I worked half day in a 1st grade class with a deaf little boy with hearing aids. I was wearing my mask, and before going into the school I made sure to check the sides to make sure there wasn't a gap...thanks to Juliann and Gui.  But when I found out that I needed to wear a mike connected to this deaf young man's hearing aid, I asked the teacher who was there but in another room testing, if it'd be best to not wear it, and she didn't say yes, but I could tell it might interfere with him hearing me speak so I took the mask off. So I think we all got to just do the best we can and understand how situations are all different. 

I think you acted very responsibly. Good on ya! Those kids are lucky to have such a conscientious teacher.

 

Edited September 9, 2021 by Bernard Gui

[Hamba Tuhan]

4 hours ago, Bernard Gui said:

I do believe that if COVID is a life and death threat, then perhaps the government, the media, pop culture, and social media should be more concerned about proper protocols.

If?

[Bernard Gui]

30 minutes ago, Hamba Tuhan said:

If?

If/then argument. If X then Y.

If COVID is a life and death situation, then it should be treated as such.

Quote

Indeed. One poster in particular has repeatedly reminded us of your CDC's mask handling guidelines across various threads. The same organisation has compiled compelling evidence on the use of cloth masks as a public health measure. In summary:
 

That would be yours truly.

Not evidence for just any old cloth masks, though. 

Our government and its social media nannies could take on the responsibility of posting these parameters as warnings to those who buy or sell cloth masks to heed this compelling evidence about their products. Like they require warnings on cigarettes and junk food. That would be an easy, cheap, and responsible thing to do.

If this….

Quote

On Labor Day 2020, the seven-day average for new Covid cases in America stood at just over 39,000, according to Johns Hopkins University. On Monday [2021], the number was more than three times where it was at the same time last year, at just over 137,000. Meanwhile, 100,000 Americans were hospitalized with the disease, compared to 38,000 at the same time last year. Daily average deaths are far, far higher, going from 802 in 2020 to 1,385 this year. (You read that correctly. We’re losing 1,385 human lives a day to a disease for which a highly effective vaccine is near-universally available.) https://www.rollingstone.com/politics/politics-news/labor-day-covid-statistics-1221231/

then this…

Make every effort to use the best equipment and follow the best protocols.

 

 

Edited September 9, 2021 by Bernard Gui

[Calm]

1 hour ago, Bernard Gui said:

That would be an easy, cheap, and responsible thing to do.

Nothing is easy or cheap when government gets involved, imo. 
 

Trying to regulate the supplement industry, for example. 
 

Do you know health groups and others have been trying to get large, graphic warnings on cigarette packages demonstrated to be more effective at least for promoting more attempts to quit for quite awhile, but for some ‘unknown’ (cough, tobacco lobbyists, cough) reason, it hasn’t happened yet. 
 

Games the tobacco industry plays:

https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/investigations/2019/05/23/why-big-tobacco-and-juul-lobbying-raise-smoking-age/3758443002/

https://exposetobacco.org/news/ti-subversive-lobbying/

Edited September 9, 2021 by Calm

[Bernard Gui]

46 minutes ago, Calm said:

Nothing is easy or cheap when government gets involved, imo. 
 

Trying to regulate the supplement industry, for example. 
 

Do you know health groups and others have been trying to get large, graphic warnings on cigarette packages demonstrated to be more effective at least for promoting more attempts to quit for quite awhile, but for some ‘unknown’ (cough, tobacco lobbyists, cough) reason, it hasn’t happened yet. 
 

Games the tobacco industry plays:

https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/investigations/2019/05/23/why-big-tobacco-and-juul-lobbying-raise-smoking-age/3758443002/

https://exposetobacco.org/news/ti-subversive-lobbying/

I wonder if any mask makers’ lobbyists wield that kind of power. The government can shut down whole industries, school and university systems, music concerts, stores, restaurants, sports leagues, even the Olympics with just the stroke of a COVID pen. Takes about 5=seconds.  Surely it can put the heat on a few mask makers.

Edited September 9, 2021 by Bernard Gui

[Calm]

1 minute ago, Bernard Gui said:

I wonder if any mask makers’ lobbyists wield that kind of power.

I wish no one did. 

[Hamba Tuhan]

7 hours ago, Bernard Gui said:

Not evidence for just any old cloth masks, though. 

Correct, the specific recommendation is for 'multi-layer cloth masks', the same ones that several in this thread have said don't work and shouldn't be used. So is what the CDC says like the Bible to you on this point or just when it provides your oft-quoted mask-handling guidelines?

[Bernard Gui]

7 hours ago, Calm said:

Nothing is easy or cheap when government gets involved, imo. 
 

Trying to regulate the supplement industry, for example. 
 

Do you know health groups and others have been trying to get large, graphic warnings on cigarette packages demonstrated to be more effective at least for promoting more attempts to quit for quite awhile, but for some ‘unknown’ (cough, tobacco lobbyists, cough) reason, it hasn’t happened yet. 
 

Games the tobacco industry plays:

https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/investigations/2019/05/23/why-big-tobacco-and-juul-lobbying-raise-smoking-age/3758443002/

https://exposetobacco.org/news/ti-subversive-lobbying/

Wow.

Isn’t that the nature of the beast.?

Any entity, individual, group, corporation that is under attack will do extraordinary things to survive. 

Edited September 9, 2021 by Bernard Gui

[Calm]

8 minutes ago, Bernard Gui said:

Any entity, individual, group, corporation that is under attack will do extraordinary things to survive. 

They have had decades knowing their product lowers the quality of life by damaging health and even killing their customers. They could have used that time to switch to another product. Instead they come up with more ways to seduce people into using it, including to youth imo. 
 

I don’t see anything but wickedness in this. 

[Bernard Gui]

1 hour ago, Hamba Tuhan said:

Correct, the specific recommendation is for 'multi-layer cloth masks', the same ones that several in this thread have said don't work and shouldn't be used. So is what the CDC says like the Bible to you on this point or just when it provides your oft-quoted mask-handling guidelines?

Please be fair. I have not said they don’t work. And please don’t twist my words to try to get an advantage.

They are not the best protection. Their effectiveness depends on their use. IJust like any other mask - even the best - they could actually be dangerous if used improperly. If folks want to use them then they should be informed. That’s the science.

Filson is a great outdoors Seattle clothing and accessories manufacturer. They outfitted the 1890s Alaska Gold Rushers. Their motto is “Why not have the best?” Their stuff really is the best. https://www.filson.com

In a life or death situation, why not?

[Bernard Gui]

12 minutes ago, Calm said:

They have had decades knowing their product lowers the quality of life by damaging health and even killing their customers. They could have used that time to switch to another product. Instead they come up with more ways to seduce people into using it, including to youth imo. 
 

I don’t see anything but wickedness in this. 

Agreed! We are witnessing the same thing with marijuana…but on steroids with government approval and encouragement. It’s a strange world in which we live.

Quote

1. I’m a pilgrim, I’m a stranger

   Cast upon the rocky shore

   Of a land where deathly danger

   Surges with a sullen roar,

   Oft despairing, oft despairing,

   Lest I reach my home no more.

2.  

3. 2. Misty vapors rise before me.

   Scarcely can I see the way.

   Clouds of darkest hue hang o’er me,

   And I’m apt to go astray

   With the many, with the many

   That are now the vulture’s prey.

4.  

5. 3. O my Father, I entreat thee,

   Let me see thy beck’ning hand;

   And when straying, may I meet thee

   Ere I join the silent band.

   Guide me, Father, guide me, Father,

   Safely to the promised land.

 

Edited September 9, 2021 by Bernard Gui

[SeekingUnderstanding]

9 hours ago, Bernard Gui said:

Why would any responsible person go to such a show knowing there is a pandemic raging around them and they could catch or transmit the disease there even if they wear masks and are vaccinated?

Again with the goal post moving. They are following cdc guidelines for the show. I don’t watch Kimmel, but to be in the audience you have to be vaccinated and masked (and they are specific about what type of face mask is appropriate). 
 

Sounds much safer than walking into an LDS chapel - that’s for sure. 

Edited September 9, 2021 by SeekingUnderstanding