School during Covid

[Bob Crockett]

1 minute ago, The Nehor said:

Ummmm.......no.

Ummmm --- yes.  It is an assault upon the poor. The poor are not getting an education.  It must be obvious to all but the rigidly inflexible, as they have an incipient need to oppress the poor. 

See this article from Great Britain's medical journal:   https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lanpub/article/PIIS2468-2667(20)30084-0/fulltext

[The Nehor]

1 hour ago, Bob Crockett said:

Ummmm --- yes.  It is an assault upon the poor. The poor are not getting an education.  It must be obvious to all but the rigidly inflexible, as they have an incipient need to oppress the poor. 

See this article from Great Britain's medical journal:   https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lanpub/article/PIIS2468-2667(20)30084-0/fulltext

Avoiding a year and a half of suboptimal schooling is worth how many deaths?

You do know this virus is disproportionately killing the poor you are so worried about? What do these children need more? A year of better schooling or their mother or father or their grandparents?

The article doesn’t even advocate for opening up schools for in person education. It lists the problems and makes some suggestions about mitigating them. Why do Covid deniers take any indication of danger (physical, mental, emotional, economic, social, or whatever) as requiring us to let a pandemic burn through the population instead of developing solutions to the problems without subjecting people to an increased chance of sickness or death?

Edited December 7, 2020 by The Nehor

[Bob Crockett]

5 minutes ago, The Nehor said:

Avoiding a year and a half of suboptimal schooling is worth how many deaths?

You do know this virus is disproportionately killing the poor you are so worried about? What do these children need more? A year of better schooling or their mother or father or their grandparents?

The article doesn’t even advocate for opening up schools for in person education. It lists the problems and makes some suggestions about mitigating them. Why do Covid deniers take any indication of danger (physical, mental, emotional, economic, social, or whatever) as requiring us to let a pandemic burn through the population instead of developing solutions to the problems without subjecting people to an increased chance of sickness or death.

I am not a Covid denier.   On line schooling is the program of the privileged and the arrogant, and not folks that can't afford lunch.  

[The Nehor]

Just now, Bob Crockett said:

I am not a Covid denier.   On line schooling is the program of the privileged and the arrogant, and not folks that can't afford lunch.  

I know. We should fix that. Many school districts are making resources available to get the supplies and information needed to allow that kind of schooling to work for poorer kids. Schools are making food and getting it to kids. Let’s add some more meals to those programs. Why not give some economic benefits (yeah, free money) to their parents to let them be around to help their kids learn? I hear we can’t do these things so we have to let the pandemic run wild. Why can’t we do those things and more?

[rongo]

On 12/6/2020 at 9:56 AM, bsjkki said:

It is strange but my high school junior seems to be happier with all online versus hybrid.

Some kids really prefer online. Most of the ones I know prefer it because it isn't as demanding (not saying this is true of your child) and they can spend most of their day playing (even when they have Google Classroom time). 

[quote]Overall, school is awful. My district has no in person learning across all ages right now except for the kids in charter schools.[/quote]

This seems to be the consensus for most people. At the beginning of the school year in the Phoenix metro area, only Queen Creek Unified (a public district) and American Leadership Academy (a giant charter district) opened in-person. Both have remained open, and we're less than two weeks away from Christmas break! As I said, I switched over to ALA for many reasons, but their absolute commitment to in-person school was more than icing on the cake. 

[quote]So, the public neighborhood school kids are disadvantaged. I wonder, moving forward, if this will hurt public school enrollment. Parents are moving kids out and going private/charter school.[/quote]

This is happening big time, and it's a major concern for public districts. Most governments have shielded them from loss of funding due to falling enrollment for this school year (freezing their funding at last year's, regardless of their enrollment this year), but the question is what will happen after this school year. Will the families return? The really big metro Phoenix districts are expecting budget shortfalls next year of $24 million or more because thousands of students have left their system. Many have gone to charters that are open, and many others are either homeschooling or doing Prenda microschools. In Arizona, public schools are funded at $8000 per student ($7500 for online). Charters are funded at $9000 per student ($8500 online). Prenda is funded at $3500 per student.

[quote]My college student is taking a semester off. This year has been horrible for her. Too isolated. She does not like online classes and misses the structure in person classes give to her schedule.[/quote]

My daughter loved her first semester at NAU (Flagstaff), but former students of mine at ASU and UofA have not liked it. 

[rongo]

Another thing I am seeing more and more of is kids graduating early, if they can (kids in former and current wards). With their junior and senior years shot (dances, athletics, concerts, plays, trips, clubs, etc.), there is a lot of incentive to just get the piece of paper and get out of there. No point in doing more Google Classroom if you really don't have to. 

Edited December 8, 2020 by rongo

[bsjkki]

2 hours ago, rongo said:

Another thing I am seeing more and more of is kids graduating early, if they can (kids in former and current wards). With their junior and senior years shot (dances, athletics, concerts, plays, trips, clubs, etc.), there is a lot of incentive to just get the piece of paper and get out of there. No point in doing more Google Classroom if you really don't have to. 

We’ve thought of the GED route for my Junior. My oldest daughter got her GED after dropping out. She missed 60 days of school with illness her sophomore year. Dropped out mid year Junior year. Took the test, passed, went to college after her health got a bit better and graduated in 3 1/2 years.

I think a lot kids could pass the GED test after sophomore year. For many age and rights of passage are important aspects of college that are now gone.

Edited December 8, 2020 by bsjkki

[rongo]

From my perspective, if Google classroom/online school became a permanent fixture in the life of a teacher, I would go do something else. I'm in a school system that is committed to traditional, normal, in person school with all of the trappings, but we are a hated minority. Most of the teacher misery right now is caused by having to teach online school. If I knew that I were facing years of this, I wouldn't do it. I am a performer, and my wit and charisma is a big part of why I love what I do and look forward to work. That would all vanish if I somehow had to become primarily a Zoom meeting facilitator, video producer, and grader. 

What saddens me is what the kids are missing out on in all of this. There are a lot of lectures about how selfish this view is, that we should happily make these sacrifices, for years if needed, to "flatten the curve" and "not kill people." I think the effect is much more far-reaching than missing out on prom and things like that. It also reaches into the (now) long-term experience of our youth with church, activities, missions, etc. I don't think we're going to know the full impact of all of this for quite some time. 

[bluebell]

32 minutes ago, rongo said:

we should happily make these sacrifices, for years if needed, to "flatten the curve" and "not kill people."  think the effect is much more far-reaching than missing out on prom and things like that. It also reaches into the (now) long-term experience of our youth with church, activities, missions, etc. I don't think we're going to know the full impact of all of this for quite some time. 

It also implies that mental health and quality of life is not as important as physical health or just being alive.  

[pogi]

29 minutes ago, rongo said:

From my perspective, if Google classroom/online school became a permanent fixture in the life of a teacher, I would go do something else. I'm in a school system that is committed to traditional, normal, in person school with all of the trappings, but we are a hated minority. Most of the teacher misery right now is caused by having to teach online school. If I knew that I were facing years of this, I wouldn't do it. I am a performer, and my wit and charisma is a big part of why I love what I do and look forward to work. That would all vanish if I somehow had to become primarily a Zoom meeting facilitator, video producer, and grader. 

What saddens me is what the kids are missing out on in all of this. There are a lot of lectures about how selfish this view is, that we should happily make these sacrifices, for years if needed, to "flatten the curve" and "not kill people." I think the effect is much more far-reaching than missing out on prom and things like that. It also reaches into the (now) long-term experience of our youth with church, activities, missions, etc. I don't think we're going to know the full impact of all of this for quite some time. 

There is nothing selfish about being saddened for the kids.   It is not the ideal situation for many students, although I personally hated public school and think most of it was a waste of time.  I would have missed the sociability side of it though, which is about all I got out of high-school.  

The trick is in finding the right balance between preserving normalcy and avoiding the potential downsides and negative effects of online schooling etc. and mitigating a surging pandemic that has killed over a quarter million people.  Good luck to anyone finding a middle ground that everyone will agree with.  It will effect everybody in different ways regardless of how we approach the response to the pandemic.  There is no win-win.  Normalcy is not an option in a scenario like this.  It is ok to be sad.  If we aren't sad in the midst of a pandemic like this, then there is probably something really wrong with us.

 

[rongo]

2 minutes ago, pogi said:

There is nothing selfish about being saddened for the kids.   It is not the ideal situation for many students, although I personally hated public school and think most of it was a waste of time.  I would have missed the sociability side of it though, which is about all I got out of high-school.  

The trick is in finding the right balance between preserving normalcy and avoiding the potential downsides and negative effects of online schooling etc. and mitigating a surging pandemic that has killed over a quarter million people.  Good luck to anyone finding a middle ground that everyone will agree with.  It will effect everybody in different ways regardless of how we approach the response to the pandemic.  There is no win-win.  Normalcy is not an option in a scenario like this.  It is ok to be sad.  If we aren't sad in the midst of a pandemic like this, then there is probably something really wrong with us.

 

When does it really end, though? I am going to be fascinated to see how the hardcore worriers act once the vaccine is widely distributed. I can't seen many of them acting any differently when it comes to masks, distancing, indignation at others, etc. I don't think the vaccine changes anything with many of them. Will the schools yo-yo between in and out of school during flu seasons now? And thousands of other questions like that. 

[Amulek]

On 12/5/2020 at 9:01 AM, rongo said:

What has your school experience been like?

Mostly positive. Both of our children elected to stay home and attend virtually for the first half of the school year, but they are both considering going back to the in-person option after the Christmas break.

For the younger one (elementary school), he has missed getting to be around his friends. However, since he's fairly bright and finishes assignments quickly, he has enjoyed having the extra free time at home during the day - which generally includes enough time either before or after lunch for him to get in an extra episode of Pokémon. 

For the older one (high school freshman), she still gets a good amount of socialization from seminary and YW activities, so that part hasn't been as bad for her. On the academic side of things, I think this has actually been a good transition for her into high school. She has had some struggles with a few classes and has had to take the initiative to ask her teachers for additional help or extra work to improve her performance. And, as of today, she now has all A's and is on track to close out her first semester with a 4.0 GPA (which was one of her goals).

I know that isn't typical for a lot of families though. My wife substitute teaches at our son's (low income) school, and she sees plenty of kids who don't have the support, temperament, etc. to really succeed in a virtual learning environment, and I worry those kids are just going to fall farther and farther behind. Hopefully, things will improve as we move into the new year and the vaccines start rolling out.

 

[pogi]

2 hours ago, rongo said:

When does it really end, though? 

When does what end?  On-line school?  I guess that is up to the school districts and will probably largely be based on numbers and risk assessment and will vary from place to place. 

What do you propose the end-game should be?

2 hours ago, rongo said:

I am going to be fascinated to see how the hardcore worriers act once the vaccine is widely distributed. 

Who exactly are the hardcore worriers in your opinion?  How large of a group are they?  If we have a successful vaccine campaign and can reach herd immunity, or at least get positivity rates down below 5% without any restrictions, and achieve sustainable ICU numbers, then I think you will start to see a changes in just about everybody.   If schools being opened are based on positive cases, then reduced community spread should be the goal for all of us.  That is the end game. 

2 hours ago, rongo said:

I can't seen many of them acting any differently when it comes to masks, distancing, indignation at others, etc.  I don't think the vaccine changes anything with many of them. 

 I disagree.  Once the threat is neutralized, things will go back to normal.  People aren't in favor of masks because they like wearing them.  People are not natural distancers.  This is not something that anyone wants to prolong beyond any reasonable risk. 

I think that the vaccine won't make a difference if people don't take it.  If enough people take it however, the vaccine will change everything for just about everybody.   I think you are likely mischaracterizing most people who have expressed worry over the pandemic and indignation.  I have felt indignation.  I have felt worry.  But I don't think that makes me unreasonable.  It doesn't mean that I want this to continue on indefinitely.  No one really wants that.   My feelings have been based largely on risk assessment, and will continue to be.   In fact, my fears have largely played out as predicted, despite the downplaying of the virus by many.  For most people who have expressed worry and indignation, it is rooted in numbers.  When the numbers are more favorable and we are no longer faced with a novel virus with devastating effects set loose in an immunologically naïve public and misguided public, then you will find that anxieties over public health will ease and that we have not been advocating for masks because we love wearing them - and we are not recommending distancing because we are recluse introverts.  Public health guidelines are dictated by risk assessment.  When the risk is largely neutralized, and the threat to our healthcare systems is at a sustainable level, and when immunity spreads throughout our community, and when positive transmission rates drop to around 5% without restrictions, you will find that things will go back to normal, but will incrementally get better as the risk is reduced, and more stringent as the risk is heightened. 

2 hours ago, rongo said:

Will the schools yo-yo between in and out of school during flu seasons now? 

Why would it? Even though some in the general public don't seem to be able to distinguish between the threat of the flu and covid, our public health officials certainly are able to make that distinction.  I think our school district officials can see the difference too. 

 

 

 

 

Edited December 8, 2020 by pogi

[rongo]

49 minutes ago, pogi said:

When does what end?  On-line school? 

And church with the whole ward able to go to all meetings, and activities, and being able to go to sports events, plays, movies, etc. Not just the end of online school

>>>What do you propose the end-game should be?

I think, like other coronaviruses, it's already endemic. I don't think it can be eradicated, and I don't think vaccines are going to provide immunity. I think we need to live with it, just like we do with colds and influenza. 

>>>Who exactly are the hardcore worriers in your opinion?  How large of a group are they? 

A teacher at my school got 3 Covid tests over a weekend, and 8 (including those 3) over a two week period. I'm not making it up or exaggerating; she told her classes in the context of railing against us being open. She also regularly tells classes that she has it on good authority that we will be shut down and won't reopen after the weekend (she is not in the know at all --- she is projecting and vocalizing wishful thinking). She desperately wants to test positive to shut down the school, and is frustrated to no end that she hasn't tested positive. People like her are not a large group, but they have disproportionate influence because of their terror/hysteria and their visibility and tenacity with social and traditional media. They are interviewed on any news station on a regular basis. They, along with media and political campaigns, affect larger groups of people who are not as fanatical as they are. 

>>>If we have a successful vaccine campaign and can reach herd immunity, or at least get positivity rates down below 5% without any restrictions, and achieve sustainable ICU numbers, then I think you will start to see a changes in just about everybody.   If schools being opened are based on positive cases, then reduced community spread should be the goal for all of us.  That is the end game. 

How long do you think this will take? Do you agree with Dr. Faucci that this won't be until 2022, even with a vaccine? What if over half of Americans refuse to take a vaccine --- how long does it get prolonged then?

 >>>I disagree.  Once the threat is neutralized, things will go back to normal.  People aren't in favor of masks because they like wearing them.  People are not natural distancers.  This is not something that anyone wants to prolong beyond any reasonable risk. 

I disagree. It is a form of virtue signaling for many (it makes them feel good and important, doing their part for the greater good, and superior to the knuckle-draggers who won't), and this is a powerful incentive that won't go away once the end game comes in. A lot of people have been turned into Bob Wiley (What About Bob?) germaphobes, and I think there will be interest in many to become a mask-wearing, obsessive hand-sanitizing culture, akin to much of Asia. Each cold and flu season will bring about calls for shutdowns and "distance learning." Support for this will vary by demographics and location. 

>>>My feelings have been based largely on risk assessment, and will continue to be . . . When the risk is largely neutralized, and the threat to our healthcare systems is at a sustainable level, and when immunity spreads throughout our community, and when positive transmission rates drop to around 5% without restrictions, you will find that things will go back to normal, but will incrementally get better as the risk is reduced, and more stringent as the risk is heightened. 

A few technical questions I don't know the answer to: When is it no longer a novel virus? How many years? Herd immunity is considered, what, 70%+ antibody presence? Am I correct in understanding that we still have no idea how long immunity lasts for contracted Covid or Covid vaccine? Should people who catch Covid naturally still be vaccinated? 

I have taught the entire semester not wearing a mask in class once. From 50% to 75% of my students don't wear them (it varies, and some kids wear them sometimes but not all the time. Some teachers require it and others don't. School policy largely leaves it up to the individual. We have 1900 students at our high school. While some would be angry and terrified at this, it does form a risk assessment of our own. For people who hear non-stop about the risk, not ever contracting it over many months teaches that there is a disconnect between what we're being told and our actual experience. We have somehow avoided outbreaks and deaths beyond the usual and customary cold and flu season over the last five months. 

>>>Why would it? Even though some in the general public don't seem to be able to distinguish between the threat of the flu and covid, our public health officials certainly are able to make that distinction.  I think our school district officials can see the difference too. 

Public health officials and school districts are all over the map. There is no consistent, unified, consensus on how frequently businesses and schools should yo-yo between shutdown and opening. I'm afraid that bad flu outbreaks for years will lead to knee jerk reactions, borne out of the Covid experience. 

I guess my main summation is: being told that a vaccine will solve everything with this by the same people who have told us "just ____  to flatten the curve" is losing its impact. It's never been "just" anything, and we don't have reason to think they'll be correct about the vaccine. 

[Calm]

4 hours ago, bluebell said:

It also implies that mental health and quality of life is not as important as physical health or just being alive.  

It is much harder to measure.  And therefore harder to be certain about.  Or to persuade others.

[pogi]

4 hours ago, rongo said:

And church with the whole ward able to go to all meetings, and activities, and being able to go to sports events, plays, movies, etc. Not just the end of online school

>>>What do you propose the end-game should be?

I think, like other coronaviruses, it's already endemic. I don't think it can be eradicated, and I don't think vaccines are going to provide immunity. I think we need to live with it, just like we do with colds and influenza. 

>>>Who exactly are the hardcore worriers in your opinion?  How large of a group are they? 

A teacher at my school got 3 Covid tests over a weekend, and 8 (including those 3) over a two week period. I'm not making it up or exaggerating; she told her classes in the context of railing against us being open. She also regularly tells classes that she has it on good authority that we will be shut down and won't reopen after the weekend (she is not in the know at all --- she is projecting and vocalizing wishful thinking). She desperately wants to test positive to shut down the school, and is frustrated to no end that she hasn't tested positive. People like her are not a large group, but they have disproportionate influence because of their terror/hysteria and their visibility and tenacity with social and traditional media. They are interviewed on any news station on a regular basis. They, along with media and political campaigns, affect larger groups of people who are not as fanatical as they are. 

>>>If we have a successful vaccine campaign and can reach herd immunity, or at least get positivity rates down below 5% without any restrictions, and achieve sustainable ICU numbers, then I think you will start to see a changes in just about everybody.   If schools being opened are based on positive cases, then reduced community spread should be the goal for all of us.  That is the end game. 

How long do you think this will take? Do you agree with Dr. Faucci that this won't be until 2022, even with a vaccine? What if over half of Americans refuse to take a vaccine --- how long does it get prolonged then?

 >>>I disagree.  Once the threat is neutralized, things will go back to normal.  People aren't in favor of masks because they like wearing them.  People are not natural distancers.  This is not something that anyone wants to prolong beyond any reasonable risk. 

I disagree. It is a form of virtue signaling for many (it makes them feel good and important, doing their part for the greater good, and superior to the knuckle-draggers who won't), and this is a powerful incentive that won't go away once the end game comes in. A lot of people have been turned into Bob Wiley (What About Bob?) germaphobes, and I think there will be interest in many to become a mask-wearing, obsessive hand-sanitizing culture, akin to much of Asia. Each cold and flu season will bring about calls for shutdowns and "distance learning." Support for this will vary by demographics and location. 

>>>My feelings have been based largely on risk assessment, and will continue to be . . . When the risk is largely neutralized, and the threat to our healthcare systems is at a sustainable level, and when immunity spreads throughout our community, and when positive transmission rates drop to around 5% without restrictions, you will find that things will go back to normal, but will incrementally get better as the risk is reduced, and more stringent as the risk is heightened. 

A few technical questions I don't know the answer to: When is it no longer a novel virus? How many years? Herd immunity is considered, what, 70%+ antibody presence? Am I correct in understanding that we still have no idea how long immunity lasts for contracted Covid or Covid vaccine? Should people who catch Covid naturally still be vaccinated? 

I have taught the entire semester not wearing a mask in class once. From 50% to 75% of my students don't wear them (it varies, and some kids wear them sometimes but not all the time. Some teachers require it and others don't. School policy largely leaves it up to the individual. We have 1900 students at our high school. While some would be angry and terrified at this, it does form a risk assessment of our own. For people who hear non-stop about the risk, not ever contracting it over many months teaches that there is a disconnect between what we're being told and our actual experience. We have somehow avoided outbreaks and deaths beyond the usual and customary cold and flu season over the last five months. 

>>>Why would it? Even though some in the general public don't seem to be able to distinguish between the threat of the flu and covid, our public health officials certainly are able to make that distinction.  I think our school district officials can see the difference too. 

Public health officials and school districts are all over the map. There is no consistent, unified, consensus on how frequently businesses and schools should yo-yo between shutdown and opening. I'm afraid that bad flu outbreaks for years will lead to knee jerk reactions, borne out of the Covid experience. 

I guess my main summation is: being told that a vaccine will solve everything with this by the same people who have told us "just ____  to flatten the curve" is losing its impact. It's never been "just" anything, and we don't have reason to think they'll be correct about the vaccine. 

 Religions, States, Counties, school districts, etc. will all have different approaches.  I don't think there is any singular "it" in - when will "it" end?  I think the response will be individualized by agency, institution, and place, and largely based on risk.  As risk increases, more strict measures are taken, as risk decreases, schools and churches open, etc.  I agree that vaccines are not the end all be all.   Testing is another critical component of returning to normalcy.  I know you make fun of your coworker for testing a lot, but that honestly is a good solution to getting back to normal.   Testing is getting better and easier every day.  There is now talk of home breathalyzer type tests that give instant results.  Highschool football teams understand this well.  They test frequently and regularly and this allows them to safely practice and be in close contact with reduced risk, and it is working!   Mask technology is improving with places like BYU coming out with simple technology to make masks that are more effective than N95's and are easy to breathe through.  All of this in conjunction with vaccines will drive numbers down to where we can get back to school, plays, sports events, concerts, etc.  But it only works if we work it.  That is where much of the indignation you speak of comes from - the resistance to measures that will get us back to normalcy.  Maybe there is some virtue signaling by some, but if that exists, I don't think it is the primary reason for the indignation.  Nobody wants this to continue.  We see countries like New Zealand, South Korea, and Taiwan back to normalcy without a vaccine.  They are going to church, attending sports events, etc. because they took it seriously.  We can get there too.  But the only way to get there is to embrace the abnormalcy (if that is a word).  The reason people are pissed off is because they WANT normal and the deniers and down-players are just drawing out and exacerbating the pandemic, making normalcy out of reach.  I think masks will be recommended until at least 2022.  I doubt that mandates will last that long though.  As numbers decrease, normalcy increases.   

I don't know if we will ever completely eradicate Covid, and it may be endemic to some degree, but we can have normalcy with endemic diseases that are largely controlled trough vaccinations and other measures.  We have for a long time.  This is out of control, however!  This is not acceptable.  We can't go back to normal in the state we are in.  It will devastate the health care system and an uncontrolled virus that is killing millions (and it will reach that level if we just go back to normal) will be even worse for the economy.  It would be a disaster of unprecedented proportions.  Measles is much more infectious than Covid and we have largely controlled that disease with vaccinations.  This one may require a booster every now and then, like many other vaccines (we don't know yet), but with 90% + efficacy, it will work to help get the virus under control.  It is just one tool. 

Quote

I guess my main summation is: being told that a vaccine will solve everything with this by the same people who have told us "just ____  to flatten the curve" is losing its impact. It's never been "just" anything, and we don't have reason to think they'll be correct about the vaccine. 

Everything that public health professionals have advised will help flatten the curve (not eliminate the virus) if people actually follow it.  I don't know of anyone of any credibility who is suggesting that vaccines will solve everything.

Are you proposing that we should go back to normal right now? No masks, no distancing, full stadiums, concerts, etc.?

Edited December 9, 2020 by pogi

[The Nehor]

14 hours ago, rongo said:

And church with the whole ward able to go to all meetings, and activities, and being able to go to sports events, plays, movies, etc. Not just the end of online school

>>>What do you propose the end-game should be?

I think, like other coronaviruses, it's already endemic. I don't think it can be eradicated, and I don't think vaccines are going to provide immunity. I think we need to live with it, just like we do with colds and influenza. 

>>>Who exactly are the hardcore worriers in your opinion?  How large of a group are they? 

A teacher at my school got 3 Covid tests over a weekend, and 8 (including those 3) over a two week period. I'm not making it up or exaggerating; she told her classes in the context of railing against us being open. She also regularly tells classes that she has it on good authority that we will be shut down and won't reopen after the weekend (she is not in the know at all --- she is projecting and vocalizing wishful thinking). She desperately wants to test positive to shut down the school, and is frustrated to no end that she hasn't tested positive. People like her are not a large group, but they have disproportionate influence because of their terror/hysteria and their visibility and tenacity with social and traditional media. They are interviewed on any news station on a regular basis. They, along with media and political campaigns, affect larger groups of people who are not as fanatical as they are. 

>>>If we have a successful vaccine campaign and can reach herd immunity, or at least get positivity rates down below 5% without any restrictions, and achieve sustainable ICU numbers, then I think you will start to see a changes in just about everybody.   If schools being opened are based on positive cases, then reduced community spread should be the goal for all of us.  That is the end game. 

How long do you think this will take? Do you agree with Dr. Faucci that this won't be until 2022, even with a vaccine? What if over half of Americans refuse to take a vaccine --- how long does it get prolonged then?

 >>>I disagree.  Once the threat is neutralized, things will go back to normal.  People aren't in favor of masks because they like wearing them.  People are not natural distancers.  This is not something that anyone wants to prolong beyond any reasonable risk. 

I disagree. It is a form of virtue signaling for many (it makes them feel good and important, doing their part for the greater good, and superior to the knuckle-draggers who won't), and this is a powerful incentive that won't go away once the end game comes in. A lot of people have been turned into Bob Wiley (What About Bob?) germaphobes, and I think there will be interest in many to become a mask-wearing, obsessive hand-sanitizing culture, akin to much of Asia. Each cold and flu season will bring about calls for shutdowns and "distance learning." Support for this will vary by demographics and location. 

>>>My feelings have been based largely on risk assessment, and will continue to be . . . When the risk is largely neutralized, and the threat to our healthcare systems is at a sustainable level, and when immunity spreads throughout our community, and when positive transmission rates drop to around 5% without restrictions, you will find that things will go back to normal, but will incrementally get better as the risk is reduced, and more stringent as the risk is heightened. 

A few technical questions I don't know the answer to: When is it no longer a novel virus? How many years? Herd immunity is considered, what, 70%+ antibody presence? Am I correct in understanding that we still have no idea how long immunity lasts for contracted Covid or Covid vaccine? Should people who catch Covid naturally still be vaccinated? 

I have taught the entire semester not wearing a mask in class once. From 50% to 75% of my students don't wear them (it varies, and some kids wear them sometimes but not all the time. Some teachers require it and others don't. School policy largely leaves it up to the individual. We have 1900 students at our high school. While some would be angry and terrified at this, it does form a risk assessment of our own. For people who hear non-stop about the risk, not ever contracting it over many months teaches that there is a disconnect between what we're being told and our actual experience. We have somehow avoided outbreaks and deaths beyond the usual and customary cold and flu season over the last five months. 

>>>Why would it? Even though some in the general public don't seem to be able to distinguish between the threat of the flu and covid, our public health officials certainly are able to make that distinction.  I think our school district officials can see the difference too. 

Public health officials and school districts are all over the map. There is no consistent, unified, consensus on how frequently businesses and schools should yo-yo between shutdown and opening. I'm afraid that bad flu outbreaks for years will lead to knee jerk reactions, borne out of the Covid experience. 

I guess my main summation is: being told that a vaccine will solve everything with this by the same people who have told us "just ____  to flatten the curve" is losing its impact. It's never been "just" anything, and we don't have reason to think they'll be correct about the vaccine. 

Where are these people who actually like wearing masks and being stuck at home? Even most introverted homebodies want the option to leave. It is possible masks will stick around like they do in Korea where they are worn if you have the flu but no one outside of a few kooks want to wear them full time.

You vastly overestimate how many people are that into “virtue signaling”. It is not virtue signaling to be annoyed at those who refuse to wear a mask despite what the persecuted anti-mask snowflakes want people to believe. It is a pandemic. It will end. People are not going to wear masks forever.

[Calm]

22 minutes ago, The Nehor said:

n most introverted homebodies want the option to leave

I can testify to that. Staying home is getting on my nerves even though I am not spending any more time isolated than I was. There is a big difference between choosing to stay home and being forced by circumstances to do so.

My daughter who is even worse than I am feels the same way. It is not fun being a recluse when everyone else is too.  

Edited December 9, 2020 by Calm

[rongo]

Alex Boye is speaking at our high school today, and individually with the choir and orchestra classes. I think our Fine Arts director, Jay Osmond, might have had something to do with that. Maybe Boye lives in the area; I don't know much about him other than he's an LDS vocal artist. 

We're three days away from making it through the semester without a shutdown!  

[rongo]

Took a (very poor quality) picture out my classroom window (I had to massively crop it to fit the size requirements). My 3rd, 4th, and 5th hour classes have a window that overlooks the theater. 

[rongo]

I had 8 online students this semester, and almost all of the online families want to continue with online in January. Our school district will be in-person, only in January, so those families will need to go elsewhere (we are literally surrounded with districts that are all online, so they have many to choose from). 

This was sent to us this morning by our principal:

---

Hello Staff....

 

Congratulations -- you made it!

 

Despite some very significant challenges; despite a very demanding requirement to support both in-person and online students; despite tremendous uncertainty; and coming amidst nine months of stress, tension, anxiety, and frustration in our homes and communities; you all made possible what most people said could not be done:  you delivered a full, uninterrupted semester of in-person education to over 1900 students.

 

It wasn't easy and it wasn't perfect.  But you successfully overcame myriad distractions and obstacles to make it happen.

 

As you've heard me say many times, I think that it will take philosophers, sociologists, and historians a decade or two to understand and articulate fully the impact COVID has had on our communities and our youth.  

 

But you can take great pride in the fact that you stood your ground in the fight against the negative impacts COVID could have on the education of our students.  And in doing so, you made a genuine and substantial difference in the daily lives, education, and social development of over 1,900 young adults.

 

You faced real and daunting adversity this semester -- and you did not back down.  Your commitment, flexibility, and innovation ensured that we fulfilled ALA's mission to provide "the best educational experience" for your students and families.

 

You did this when other schools could not or would not.  You should not underestimate the significance of this. 

 

When other schools -- and more importantly, other districts' teachers -- were fighting not to have in-person education, you chose to put your students first by showing up each and every day to teach in person.  That choice was an example for all of Arizona.

 

The fact that ALA's enrollment increased by over 1,000 students this year is a testament to our families' views on the importance of in-person learning.  

 

Having persevered through this semester, I know you are excited about the fact that next semester should be much less complex, although no less important, than this semester.  We will have the ability to focus on our students in a way that was difficult to do this semester.  I'm looking forward to a "return to basics" and a renewed emphasis on the things that make ALA what it is -- a positive campus culture, a moral and wholesome environment, and quality instruction provided by dedicated and caring teachers.

 

As we wrap things up today, I sincerely hope you all have a wonderful, relaxing, and joyful holiday.    Please enjoy every single minute of a holiday break that you have unquestionably earned.

 

We will see you all in 2021 -- 

[Chum]

Our school district gave us all the options they could. Kids can attend in-person, attend remotely and/or take virtual courses. Mine did all 3 for a while (because one of the trade classes couldn't be done remotely).

As for issues:  Monitoring portals have incomplete data - grades can be posted a week or more after submission, leading to low course grades that raise flags - teachers' tech issues lead to classes that don't open and that results in unexcused absences.

In other words, it's all the same issues that happen every year. I think that means they're handling the pandemic well.

[Chum]

On 12/9/2020 at 8:31 AM, The Nehor said:

Even most introverted homebodies want the option to leave.

Nope. We're mid-grade introverts at best & this is paradise compared to compulsory crowding. Social distancing means my personal space gets some personal space. Church has become heavenly. I never imagined living in such a psychologically healthy time.

Well, speaking to the pandemic, anyway.