President Nelson Video

[Robert F. Smith]

33 minutes ago, CV75 said:

I think he was speaking in general about the governments of the world - that are acting in good faith and helpful --  as he would not be grateful for any acting in bad-faith and have not kept people safe as a result. His primary message is about what the Church is doing within the parameters she operates in, which are often impacted by political and financial conditions and constraints that fall under the purview of governments.

He did not say that gov't worldwide was acting in good faith.  Indeed, unlike the governments of the world, the LDS leaders put our safety and well-being first.  The first concern of all gov't is political and financial.  Safety of citizens is always the last consideration, if it is even taken into account at all.  Pres Nelson knows this, but is trying to be nice and encouraging to all governments -- even though most won't pay any attention at all to his comments.  Sorry to be so cynical, CV, but that is the unhappy reality.

[Robert F. Smith]

45 minutes ago, Tacenda said:

I didn't say it,  was this from the c/p timeline of world disasters? I wouldn't know about most of it.

I did not say that you said it, Tacenda.  I was responding to the anonymous quotation -- which put faith in the frightened little boys who are our gov't leaders.  I have no faith in them at all.

[Tacenda]

37 minutes ago, Robert F. Smith said:

I did not say that you said it, Tacenda.  I was responding to the anonymous quotation -- which put faith in the frightened little boys who are our gov't leaders.  I have no faith in them at all.

That's fine, I didn't really think you thought I did, but why do you think the leaders were frightened little boys, any sources? I'm pretty bad with US history, sadly. 

[CV75]

51 minutes ago, Robert F. Smith said:

He did not say that gov't worldwide was acting in good faith.  Indeed, unlike the governments of the world, the LDS leaders put our safety and well-being first.  The first concern of all gov't is political and financial.  Safety of citizens is always the last consideration, if it is even taken into account at all.  Pres Nelson knows this, but is trying to be nice and encouraging to all governments -- even though most won't pay any attention at all to his comments.  Sorry to be so cynical, CV, but that is the unhappy reality.

I said, "I think he is acknowledging that government, health, and civic leaders in general are acting in good faith, and that the Church will proceed specifically in good faith ("Your safety and well-being will always be our utmost concern.")." Offering such acknowledgement is one way to be nice and encouraging given the interests and purview of governments. After all, they are instituted of, and those acting in relation to them are accountable to, God for the benefit of man. I think he is speaking of governments generally and Church actions specifically, and relative to their own sphere of control. And if the safety of citizens was always the last consideration, all nations would be just like [who]? There is also a distinction between "utmost" (his word) and "last (or first -- your word)" since there can be parallel priorities.

[The Nehor]

3 hours ago, Scott Lloyd said:

Do you still think most of us will get the virus? I think I recall you saying that earlier. 

Yes. Most states have not yet peaked on the first wave and some states are already reopening. The last few days have seen increases almost everywhere and that cannot be blamed on the opening. Not that quickly. So that increase is with the measures in place. We will find out the results of opening up in those states in a week and a half to two weeks. People are also talking about a second wave but we have not seen the first wave crest yet.

Edited May 7, 2020 by The Nehor

[The Nehor]

In more positive news USA #1!!!!!!!!

 

[Tacenda]

28 minutes ago, The Nehor said:

In more positive news USA #1!!!!!!!!

 

Is this both entertaining and real? 😞

[The Nehor]

22 minutes ago, Tacenda said:

Is this both entertaining and real? 😞

The numbers match the reporting as of a few days ago (I think it was posted yesterday).

I would add the caveat that many nations are underreporting. It is possible China (and possibly India) are still actually ahead in total cases but that is all anecdotal and China has booted out most foreign journalists so it is hard to be sure how things are going there. Some think Russia is ahead of us too but I doubt it since Russia is probably still in the very early stages.

If you watch at the very end there are questions marks at the end so the last second of movement is extrapolated but yeah, we are way ahead. It is also worth noting that this is total cases and not per capita and the US is the third most populated nation in the world (after only China and India who each have over four times as many people). Still not good of course and the idea that we are going to contain it at this point makes me laugh. My state's governor thinks we will open up and start contact tracing. I don't believe it. Too many cases. Even if you could without general testing you have a chain of asymptomatics and you lose the thread of contact and then you have a superspreader with 100 people infected, over half of whom show no symptoms but are spreading it.

[Scott Lloyd]

1 hour ago, The Nehor said:

Yes. Most states have not yet peaked on the first wave and some states are already reopening. The last few days have seen increases almost everywhere and that cannot be blamed on the opening. Not that quickly. So that increase is with the measures in place. We will find out the results of opening up in those states in a week and a half to two weeks. People are also talking about a second wave but we have not seen the first wave crest yet.

But almost everyone? Do you understand the scope of that prediction? 
 

As widespread as it has been thus far, I don’t have a personal acquaintance with anyone yet who has been diagnosed with it, much less hospitalized. Not a relative, not a friend, not even a casual acquaintance. 

[Robert F. Smith]

2 hours ago, CV75 said:

I said, "I think he is acknowledging that government, health, and civic leaders in general are acting in good faith, and that the Church will proceed specifically in good faith ("Your safety and well-being will always be our utmost concern.")." Offering such acknowledgement is one way to be nice and encouraging given the interests and purview of governments. After all, they are instituted of, and those acting in relation to them are accountable to, God for the benefit of man. I think he is speaking of governments generally and Church actions specifically, and relative to their own sphere of control. And if the safety of citizens was always the last consideration, all nations would be just like [who]? There is also a distinction between "utmost" (his word) and "last (or first -- your word)" since there can be parallel priorities.

Nope.  Not what he said at all.

[Robert F. Smith]

3 hours ago, Tacenda said:

That's fine, I didn't really think you thought I did, but why do you think the leaders were frightened little boys, any sources? I'm pretty bad with US history, sadly. 

Well, take the Cuban missile crisis, for example:  Both Kennedy and Krushchev had a chance to stare for a moment at mutual annihilation, and they got scared.  Most govt leaders are just pompous little boys who never grew up -- Little Lord Fauntleroys pretending to be brave.  The first time things go wrong, they run to mommy.

[Calm]

On 5/7/2020 at 2:54 PM, Scott Lloyd said:

But almost everyone? Do you understand the scope of that prediction? 
 

As widespread as it has been thus far, I don’t have a personal acquaintance with anyone yet who has been diagnosed with it, much less hospitalized. Not a relative, not a friend, not even a casual acquaintance. 

How long has it been since you and your acquaintances could have been easily exposed?

Probably a couple of months at most. Early on infection is much lower in number because fewer have it to expose others. (I know people know this, just saying to make my line of reasoning clear)
 

If there is at least another year before we get a vaccine and chances of exposure rise exponentially during that time due to more social contacting, good chance most will get it unless there is something not currently known affecting infection rate, imo. 

Added:  pointed out the way I wrote it I am saying almost universal infection, when I meant almost universal exposure and therefore almost universal risk of infection...imo most will be exposed as the infection rate appears to be high enough to keep the disease spreading long enough to hit all corners and pockets of earth save perhaps a few isolated spots if spread is not inhibited in some fashion.

New Zealand appears to demonstrate even without a vaccine it can be stopped.  Here's hoping that sticks as they loosen up.

Edited June 2, 2020 by Calm

[Scott Lloyd]

48 minutes ago, Calm said:

How long has it been since you and your acquaintances could have been easily exposed?

Probably a couple of months at most. Early on infection is much lower in number because fewer have it to expose others. (I know people know this, just saying to make my line of reasoning clear)
 

If there is at least another year before we get a vaccine and chances of exposure rise exponentially during that time due to more social contacting, good chance most will get it unless there is something not currently known affecting infection rate, imo. 

I’m hearing that predictions of death are being dramatically revised downward because rate of exposure up to now has been much higher than thought. That is to say, incidence of illness/death stemming from exposure is at a much lower rate than earlier supposed. 
 

That’s what the British epidemiologist said who just “relinquished” his position after he ignored his own lockdown advice to cheat on his wife with his mistress. His earlier model was discredited because of inaccurate estimates of exposure. 
 

Also, the Trump administration said at last Sunday’s virtual town hall meeting that a vaccine is expected by year’s end. 

Edited May 7, 2020 by Scott Lloyd

[The Nehor]

48 minutes ago, Scott Lloyd said:

But almost everyone? Do you understand the scope of that prediction? 
 

As widespread as it has been thus far, I don’t have a personal acquaintance with anyone yet who has been diagnosed with it, much less hospitalized. Not a relative, not a friend, not even a casual acquaintance. 

I do. I think it will be 75%+ of the world's population. They are guessing the R0 rate of this thing is somewhere around 2.5. That means they suspect that, on average, each case infects about two and a half people. The doubling rate is about a week. That is amazing exponential growth but it takes a lot of time to build momentum. It has only been around four months since the first confirmed case in the US and we have had 1.2 million cases. By comparison flu viruses vary by strain but the R0 is around 1.3. Each person spreads it on average to one person and a third of a person and influenza contagiousness drops more in heat based on the data we have.

The curve did look like it was starting to flatten due to the lockdown but there were not any consistent and sustained drops in new cases in  any region that I have seen. I expect we will see exponential growth again in the next two weeks. The 6 ft social distancing thing everyone is pushing is better than nothing but it is not perfect protection. The masks mostly serve as protection for others as they catch some cough, sneeze, and breath particles if worn correctly but we are not sure what kind of a drop that could cause.

A lot is still unknown.

[Scott Lloyd]

49 minutes ago, The Nehor said:

I do. I think it will be 75%+ of the world's population. They are guessing the R0 rate of this thing is somewhere around 2.5. That means they suspect that, on average, each case infects about two and a half people. The doubling rate is about a week. That is amazing exponential growth but it takes a lot of time to build momentum. It has only been around four months since the first confirmed case in the US and we have had 1.2 million cases. By comparison flu viruses vary by strain but the R0 is around 1.3. Each person spreads it on average to one person and a third of a person and influenza contagiousness drops more in heat based on the data we have.

The curve did look like it was starting to flatten due to the lockdown but there were not any consistent and sustained drops in new cases in  any region that I have seen. I expect we will see exponential growth again in the next two weeks. The 6 ft social distancing thing everyone is pushing is better than nothing but it is not perfect protection. The masks mostly serve as protection for others as they catch some cough, sneeze, and breath particles if worn correctly but we are not sure what kind of a drop that could cause.

A lot is still unknown.

Time will tell, I suppose. 
 

As you say, a lot is still unknown. And a lot that was thought to have been known is turning out not to have been accurate. 
 

Edited to add:  “I’m reminded of the quote, “ ‘Tain’t what a man don’t know that gets him into trouble. It’s what he thinks he knows that just ain’t so.”

Edited May 7, 2020 by Scott Lloyd

[Calm]

1 hour ago, Scott Lloyd said:

I’m hearing that predictions of death are being dramatically revised downward because rate of exposure up to now has been much higher than thought. That is to say, incidence of illness/death stemming from exposure is at a much lower rate than earlier supposed

I was speaking solely about infection, not deaths.  If exposure has been much higher, than it is even more likely than thought before that most everyone will be exposed and get it. 
 

The vast majority of people can get infected by a germ and few, if any, die from it. Death rates are a different discussion, though tied of course to infection rates. 

Edited May 7, 2020 by Calm

[CV75]

1 hour ago, Robert F. Smith said:

Nope.  Not what he said at all.

We can each read the same text of what he said (i.e. uttered from his mouth) and form different interpretations of what he said (or, what he meant through the lens of our experience).

[The Nehor]

1 hour ago, Scott Lloyd said:

I’m hearing that predictions of death are being dramatically revised downward because rate of exposure up to now has been much higher than thought. That is to say, incidence of illness/death stemming from exposure is at a much lower rate than earlier supposed. 
 

That’s what the British epidemiologist said who just “relinquished” his position after he ignored his own lockdown advice to cheat on his wife with his mistress. His earlier model was discredited because of inaccurate estimates of exposure. 
 

Also, the Trump administration said at last Sunday’s town hall meeting that a vaccine is expected by year’s end. 

The tests for antibodies do show a little cause for optimism but a lot of them have been done in "hot zones" and this makes it hard to estimate the infection rate amongst the asymptomatic and mild symptoms people. You are right though. The more people who have had it the better even if it does show a higher contagiousness rate because it means the fatality and hospitalization rates are lower. If it is high enough it could mean that There should be a lot more data in the next two weeks with widespread testing to get a better handle on that.

Ferguson's model has been over the predicted death toll and Ferguson has a history of overdoing predicted death tolls. He predicted 2 million US deaths with no mitigation. I would put it at around 500k.

The Trump administration lost any credibility they had left when they put that idiot economic advisor charlatan out yesterday claiming deaths would fall to zero by May 15th. Someone needs to punch that guy in the face. It is becoming more and more obvious they will grab any model that tells them what they want to hear. The administration's death predictions were originally that it was contained, then 60,000 dead, and the latest is 100,000 dead. The administration seems to take any sign of hope for a cure or vaccine and leap it at it as if this is a miracle cure. His dabbling with chloroquine (no conclusive evidence of usefulness yet and many clinical trials ended early due to ethical concerns due to the side effects.  The disinfectant cure idea was laughable. I wasn't sure whether to laugh or to weep when he suggested using light on the virus. Really? You want to zap the interior of the lung with enough UV radiation to kill all the viruses. That would end in a guarantee of cancer throughout the entire lung. Humans have skin for a reason. Skin is resistant to UV and even it sometimes gets cancer. Shooting heavy doses of UV light inside lungs at the intensity needed to kill the virus throughout the entire lung would amount to murder.

They have loosened vaccine restrictions and some vaccines are going into human testing soon. That is hopeful and scary. There is a reason we are usually much more methodical and vaccine trials even under the cautious model can kill people. We might have a vaccine by the end of the year but this is the President who if you say something will come out anywhere from 1 to 6 months from now will announce it should be out in 1 month. That assumes a vaccine is possible, that immunity sticks for an extended period, and that the virus does not mutate and other strains come to dominate or there are so many that a vaccination is more like our current flu shots. This already happened once with the virus. There was believed to be a mutation that came to dominate the original strain and that means the new virus is more contagious. That is also unpleasant. For the new strain to dominate an existing strain means it started out outnumbered but multiplied more quickly.

The nightmare scenario is that immunity will only last for a month or two or something short like that. Then this thing becomes endemic and we will have some really horrible choices to make. This is unlikely though. While other coronaviruses have had short-term immunity compared to most diseases it usually lasts at least a year and the nature of this virus does give some hope it will last longer.

 

[The Nehor]

22 minutes ago, Scott Lloyd said:

Time will tell, I suppose. 
 

As you say, a lot is still unknown. And a lot that was thought to have been known is turning out not to have been accurate. 

This is true and why the people who make the decisions are probably going to be burned for it no matter what happens. The best they can do is try to have the best minds coordinate and get the best data they can, act on that, and hope.  

[The Nehor]

2 hours ago, Robert F. Smith said:

Well, take the Cuban missile crisis, for example:  Both Kennedy and Krushchev had a chance to stare for a moment at mutual annihilation, and they got scared.  Most govt leaders are just pompous little boys who never grew up -- Little Lord Fauntleroys pretending to be brave.  The first time things go wrong, they run to mommy.

Wait.....are you suggesting that they were scared little boys because they didn't start shooting and if they were more mature they wouldn't have flinched and would have started shooting? I would argue that anyone in a position of leadership during the Cuban Missile Crisis who was not afraid would have been a naive little boy playing with toys.

Edited May 7, 2020 by The Nehor

[The Nehor]

Oh also, fun fact: In four months this thing just recently killed more Americans than the entire Vietnam War. Next up is World War 1 at 117k dead. That might be the last milestone. If my darker predictions are accurate we could pass WWII at 406k and I don't think we will hit the Civil War at 618k but who knows?

[Scott Lloyd]

20 minutes ago, The Nehor said:

Oh also, fun fact: In four months this thing just recently killed more Americans than the entire Vietnam War. Next up is World War 1 at 117k dead. That might be the last milestone. If my darker predictions are accurate we could pass WWII at 406k and I don't think we will hit the Civil War at 618k but who knows?

That’s the way of pestilence. They harm and kill a lot of people. 
 

What I hate to see is unmitigated blaming of people who are doing their best to contain it, however imperfect or ineffectual their efforts might be. 

[bluebell]

36 minutes ago, The Nehor said:

Oh also, fun fact: In four months this thing just recently killed more Americans than the entire Vietnam War. Next up is World War 1 at 117k dead. That might be the last milestone. If my darker predictions are accurate we could pass WWII at 406k and I don't think we will hit the Civil War at 618k but who knows?

Has it killed more than the normal flu season?  Sincere question, I haven't looked and am wondering.

[Robert F. Smith]

1 hour ago, The Nehor said:

Wait.....are you suggesting that they were scared little boys because they didn't start shooting and if they were more mature they wouldn't have flinched and would have started shooting? I would argue that anyone in a position of leadership during the Cuban Missile Crisis who was not afraid would have been a naive little boy playing with toys.

They were little kids all along, playing at war, just the way many little boys do.  As long as its just pretend and there are no real consequences (aside from the loss of population to conventional weapons), they are content to  continue having fun.   But when mutually assured destruction (MAD) is near, their courage folds and they run to mommy.  The rules of proportional response and such are just fine, and well within the fun games they play with other people's lives.  But game theory goes out the window when the threat is existential.  Or haven't you noticed, Nehor?  I thought someone with your mordant wit would see it clearly.

[Robert F. Smith]

1 hour ago, CV75 said:

We can each read the same text of what he said (i.e. uttered from his mouth) and form different interpretations of what he said (or, what he meant through the lens of our experience).

You need a new lenscrafter.