Update on missionaries

[stemelbow]

We had a regional conference yesterday.  Elder Ballard's remarks were pretty good. 

Elder Hallstrom reported there are under 72,000 missionaries serving today.  That's a near 3 percent decline from the first of the year, as was reported.  The problem is, we were told then that the number of missionaries would grow upwards from the 74,000.  I wonder when we're going to hit the bottom after the surge?  When we were at 88,000 missionaries it was predicted we'd be at 100,000 in a couple years from that point (so in 2019).  That seems unlikely unless, of course, some really big changes come. 

The year I came home from my mission (1997) it was reported we had 56,531 missionaries.  Which was .56% of the Church.  Today we have under 72,000 (put it at 71,990 for evaluation purposes).  Which puts us at .47% of the Church.  So before the raising the bar we had more missionaries per member than we have today.  We also had more than twice the growth rate back then.  As it was we had more missionaries for the Church in '97 then we did in 2014 when the surge was at its peak (1997=.56% of the Church were missionaries; 2014=.55% of the Church were missionaries).  It was also said yesterday, by Elder Hallstrom that the percent of young women serving missions has doubled since 2012 (when we were down to 58,000 missionaries).  If the percent of young women serving missions had remained constant or somewhat constant from 1997 to 2012, then what we may have is far less young men serving missions now, percentage-wise in particular.   

For instance, if 7% of the missionaries were young women in 1997 or 2012, that'd mean 14% of the missionaries are young women today.  14% of the 71,990 is 10,078.  7% of the 58,000 is 4,060.  Or if we consider 1997, 3,957.  Let's do this, then.  non young women serving in 1997 could have been 52,574 (.52% of Church population)  Today non young women missionaries might be 61,912 (.39% of the Church population).  The Raising the Bar campaign likely is the biggest factor here, as it is many LDS young males are being excluded from missionary service because of it.  That was 2001, as I see it.  So in 2003, the first year that saw a pretty significant decline in missionaries, considering the same scenario as above, we'd see .43% of the Church as non young women serving missions.  Elder Hallstrom did not report what the percentage is today, only that it is twice as much as it ever has been.  And sadly, in my searches I'm not finding anything reporting the number of young women missionaries.  Side note:  He also indicated young men serving missions is a priesthood obligation, and there's no such obligation for young women. 

So we have far less young men serving missions today then we've had for many many years, or so it seems.  Our other problem is, as has been reported to me by our local leaders as being a Church wide problem, many of our young men missionaries are heading home early.  Additionally our growth rate is as low as it's ever been in the past 100 years. 

This is meant as an update to some fo the past discussions we've had:

http://www.mormondialogue.org/topic/67003-missionary-number-has-declined/#comment-1209590103

Scott from the thread here linked:

Quote

The number was at about 58,000 when the age changes were announced in 2012. The change in age started a surge that topped out at nearly 90,000 and began to diminish as the surge worked through the pipeline. Sources tell me it has bottomed out at 75,000 -- still well above the 58,000 of 20012 -- and is now rising again. One online observer (quoted in a SL Trib blog post) predicted that if past growth opatterns hold true, the number will be back up in the eighthy-thousands within the next year or two. 

As it was back then Scott was claiming that the actual missionaries in the field were closer to 75,000 than the reported 74,079.  But we were told by Scott that the number had bottomed out at 75,000, when at that time it was closer to 74,000 (74,049).  Today we have less than 72,000 as Elder Hallstrom reported, which could be I suppose anywhere from 71,001 to 71,999.  I like positivity so I consider it as 71,990 (the high end). 

And another thread

http://www.mormondialogue.org/topic/64782-surge-has-subsided-but-missionary-work-continues-apace/#comment-1209454367

In this above thread, Scott challenged Mike Reeds assumption that "in two or three more years it will fall, I suspect, unless another change is made".  It has steadily fallen since MIke said so, near 2 years ago.  I'm curious how much more it will fall.  So far we know that in 2012 the percent of missionary to member was at .40%, now it's back down to .46%.  I'm curious if we'll get closer to .40% in the coming year.  It has gotten me curious if the leaders anticipated that the number of missionaries going home early would be so significant that it's been reported as a problem we face today? 

I welcome predictions or clarification, or ideas shared on all of this.  I love the year end reports. 

[waveslider]

Perhaps the age change was done because it may not be too far away that it just isn't safe to send any missionaries abroad at all. Instead of just a plan to get the numbers up it was just a last ditch effort to get as many missionaries out there that we can before massive civil unrest or something. I'm not saying that is in fact the case, but it is a likely scenario judging by the way the world economy looks to me.

[stemelbow]

9 minutes ago, waveslider said:

Perhaps the age change was done because it may not be too far away that it just isn't safe to send any missionaries abroad at all. Instead of just a plan to get the numbers up it was just a last ditch effort to get as many missionaries out there that we can before massive civil unrest or something. I'm not saying that is in fact the case, but it is a likely scenario judging by the way the world economy looks to me.

hm...I'm curious what you mean.  you mean the Church did this so a lot of missionaries can get out there before some  thing really stops it?  Can you elaborate? 

[HappyJackWagon]

Interesting analysis. I would be interested in seeing actual numbers from the church because I would expect them to be similar to yours. In short, fewer YM going out. The surge as crested and is now falling and I think a lot of members have seen the carnage of so many young missionaries returning home early. I think there is a growing distrust among many members of the mission program as a net positive for all kids.

I have a son nearing mission age and I'm sure he'll feel pressure from the church to go. I also expect that the church will exert pressure on me to encourage him to go. But before I would even consider encouraging a mission for him I want the church to answer questions about the structure, policies, and full term service rate for missionaries.

The age change was an interesting experiment that I view is yielding a lot of bad fruit. The church is going to need to demonstrate that they are worthy of our trust before sending out a missionary.

[Calm]

Stem, There are seasonal variations I believe that are dependent on the school year.  (I understand that they like to make sure the missionary is available to start fall semester when they get back so there isn't a lot of lag time with little to do) Whether or not there has really been a drop would depend on if the number is taken at the same time of the year as the 74,000 count.  Did he say anything that would indicate one way or another?

Edited September 12, 2016 by Calm

[Duncan]

Did they say how many are available to go? I.E. how many MP Holders versus how many serve missions. 

[Scott Lloyd]

2 hours ago, Calm said:

Stem, There are seasonal variations I believe that are dependent on the school year.  (I understand that they like to make sure the missionary is available to start fall semester when they get back so there isn't a lot of lag time with little to do) Whether or not there has really been a drop would depend on if the number is taken at the same time of the year as the 74,000 count.  Did he say anything that would indicate one way or another?

Elder Hallstrom did not address that when he gave the number (I too attended the meeting). But he did say the number has stabilized after the decrease from the high of nearly 89,000, a decrease which he said had been "fully anticipated."

So apparently, Church leaders still believe the number has stabilized. Time will tell, I suppose.

Edited September 12, 2016 by Scott Lloyd

[waveslider]

2 hours ago, stemelbow said:

hm...I'm curious what you mean.  you mean the Church did this so a lot of missionaries can get out there before some  thing really stops it?  Can you elaborate? 

Imagine what life would be like if/when the U.S. dollar collapses and is all of a sudden completely worthless, so much so that you could throw millions of dollars in cash into the streets and no one would even bother to pick it up. Think of what would happen to not only the U.S. but to all the other nations that have tied their money to the U.S. dollar. What wars would start, as the world's most powerful military comes to a complete stand still, and other countries justify getting some kind of return on the debt that they are due, and will now never be able to get paid, without taking it by force? What will happen to all of the opec nations? There are many more questions like this that need to be asked, but I'm sure you can figure them out on your own as the thought is pondered.

Governments, including the U.S. government create zero revenue, except what is extorted in tax money. The current rate of debt is so bad that the total amount of tax revenue collected from people and corporations isn't even enough to pay off the interest let alone start to make any type of dent into the debt: http://usdebtclock.org/

This is only one scenario. I didn't even mention the proxy war the U.S. is fighting through Turkey, against Russia through Syria. This could very well trigger a WWIII event (which if you dig down into the rabbit hole deep enough you will see the connections to who controls oil reserves and how it is shipped is actually the root of it all in the first place, because the U.S. dollar's worth is only tied to petrol oil and not gold like it used to be, but that can't possibly be explained very well on this discussion board so I digress. If you want to learn the basics on this I suggest starting out with a few documentaries: https://youtu.be/6R_HLMfjGC4 https://youtu.be/B4wU9ZnAKAw https://youtu.be/Sboh-_w43W8 )

I also didn't mention all the cataclysmic disasters that have been prophesied as happening in the times of tribulations like huge Earth quakes, tsunamis, storms, droughts, floods, famines, pestilences, diseases, storms, etc.. There will be a time when the missionaries are all called home, and the only missionary work that will be performed will be locally: https://www.lds.org/manual/teachings-brigham-young/chapter-45?lang=eng

I am not saying this to promote fear, but these things aren't only prophesied, but sciences and math are starting to project a lot of the same things. I personally am grateful for the gospel, and although these things will by hard trials, we are promised to be able to endure them and grow in ways that will bless us further if we endure them properly, standing on holy ground. These are, after all, the signs that tell us that our Savior will return and are something to look for, not cower and fear from. This all said, I am not saying this is in fact why the age change on missionaries was changed, only that it is a possibility and it is at least worth consideration.

We do not allow political posts. Please do not derail with speculation about world economies. 

[Scott Lloyd]

19 minutes ago, Duncan said:

Did they say how many are available to go? I.E. how many MP Holders versus how many serve missions. 

He didn't address that either, though he did say something that has been said in general conference before: that by all important indicators there are more people than ever before who are making and keeping sacred covenants. The context was that the Lord is "hastening the work in His time."

[ALarson]

5 hours ago, stemelbow said:

http://www.mormondialogue.org/topic/67003-missionary-number-has-declined/#comment-1209590103

Scott from the thread here linked:

As it was back then Scott was claiming that the actual missionaries in the field were closer to 75,000 than the reported 74,079.  But we were told by Scott that the number had bottomed out at 75,000, when at that time it was closer to 74,000 (74,049).  Today we have less than 72,000 as Elder Hallstrom reported, which could be I suppose anywhere from 71,001 to 71,999.  I like positivity so I consider it as 71,990 (the high end). 

And another thread

http://www.mormondialogue.org/topic/64782-surge-has-subsided-but-missionary-work-continues-apace/#comment-1209454367

In this above thread, Scott challenged Mike Reeds assumption that "in two or three more years it will fall, I suspect, unless another change is made".  It has steadily fallen since MIke said so, near 2 years ago.  I'm curious how much more it will fall.  So far we know that in 2012 the percent of missionary to member was at .40%, now it's back down to .46%.  I'm curious if we'll get closer to .40% in the coming year.  It has gotten me curious if the leaders anticipated that the number of missionaries going home early would be so significant that it's been reported as a problem we face today? 

Thanks, Stem.  All very interesting and looks like Mike Reed was correct (at least so far).  

[cinepro]

37 minutes ago, Scott Lloyd said:

that by all important indicators there are more people than ever before who are making and keeping sacred covenants. The context was that the Lord is "hastening the work in His time."

What does that even mean?  Obviously, the Church has the most members in absolute numbers than ever before, with more Temples available than ever before.  How could we not have more people taking the sacrament, getting baptized, and going to the Temple than "ever before"?  

Honestly, that sounds like someone is trying to shift the emphasis from growth to something else. 

It would be like a website (like this one) suddenly stopping talking about how many new members are registering (after talking about membership growth for the last 12 years) and emphasizing that now they are getting more posts than ever before.  That might be all find and dandy, but I think I'd wonder why they were talking about membership growth on the website all those years and then suddenly stopped and started emphasizing a different metric.

 

I'll also add that "hastening the work" has to be one of the worst catch-phrases I've seen come out of Salt Lake City.  What, exactly, does it mean?  It means everything, which means nothing.  To "hasten" something means to make it happen quicker or sooner.  What is happening "quicker" or "sooner" in "the work"?  Is it the age at which young men and women leave for missions, or the rate at which they return early?  Is it the rate at which people are hearing the gospel and joining the Church, or the rate at which the wheat is separated from the chaff and members (both new and old) are leaving?

Edited September 12, 2016 by cinepro

[stemelbow]

1 hour ago, HappyJackWagon said:

Interesting analysis. I would be interested in seeing actual numbers from the church because I would expect them to be similar to yours. In short, fewer YM going out. The surge as crested and is now falling and I think a lot of members have seen the carnage of so many young missionaries returning home early. I think there is a growing distrust among many members of the mission program as a net positive for all kids.

I have a son nearing mission age and I'm sure he'll feel pressure from the church to go. I also expect that the church will exert pressure on me to encourage him to go. But before I would even consider encouraging a mission for him I want the church to answer questions about the structure, policies, and full term service rate for missionaries.

The age change was an interesting experiment that I view is yielding a lot of bad fruit. The church is going to need to demonstrate that they are worthy of our trust before sending out a missionary.

Very interesting to me.  I too would like this addressed in a more full way.  I haven't felt encouraged since the age change myself.

[stemelbow]

1 hour ago, Calm said:

Stem, There are seasonal variations I believe that are dependent on the school year.  (I understand that they like to make sure the missionary is available to start fall semester when they get back so there isn't a lot of lag time with little to do) Whether or not there has really been a drop would depend on if the number is taken at the same time of the year as the 74,000 count.  Did he say anything that would indicate one way or another?

He just said the number.  He didn't indicate much else about it. 

[stemelbow]

1 hour ago, Scott Lloyd said:

Elder Hallstrom did not address that when he gave the number (I too attended the meeting). But he did say the number has stabilized after the decrease from the high of nearly 85,000, a decrease which he said had been "fully expected."

So apparently, Church leaders still believe the number has stabilized. Time will tell, I suppose.

I don't recall the word stabilized being used, but if so I would have to wonder what that would mean. 

[stemelbow]

1 hour ago, Duncan said:

Did they say how many are available to go? I.E. how many MP Holders versus how many serve missions. 

No.  This was more about saying a number to encourage the members.  It wasn't really an effort to focus on what I've brought up in the OP. 

[stemelbow]

19 minutes ago, cinepro said:

What does that even mean?  Obviously, the Church has the most members in absolute numbers than ever before, with more Temples available than ever before.  How could we not have more people taking the sacrament, getting baptized, and going to the Temple than "ever before"?  

Honestly, that sounds like someone is trying to shift the emphasis from growth to something else. 

It would be like a website (like this one) suddenly stopping talking about how many new members are registering (after talking about membership growth for the last 12 years) and emphasizing that now they are getting more posts than ever before.  That might be all find and dandy, but I think I'd wonder why they were talking about membership growth on the website all those years and then suddenly stopped and started emphasizing a different metric.

Agreed.  I can't figure out what is possibly meant by this.  I think Scott is thinking it means that the quality of converts is up.  But, I'd question that.  How could we measure such a thing? 

[ALarson]

2 minutes ago, stemelbow said:

Agreed.  I can't figure out what is possibly meant by this.  I think Scott is thinking it means that the quality of converts is up.  But, I'd question that.  How could we measure such a thing? 

Maybe by looking at retention numbers?  But those have been down too, haven't they?

[Gray]

30 minutes ago, cinepro said:

I'll also add that "hastening the work" has to be one of the worst catch-phrases I've seen come out of Salt Lake City.  What, exactly, does it mean?  It means everything, which means nothing.  To "hasten" something means to make it happen quicker or sooner.  What is happening "quicker" or "sooner" in "the work"?  Is it the age at which young men and women leave for missions, or the rate at which they return early?  Is it the rate at which people are hearing the gospel and joining the Church, or the rate at which the wheat is separated from the chaff and members (both new and old) are leaving?

I've seen it applied to anything and everything church related. I'm not sure anyone knows for sure what it means.

[stemelbow]

1 hour ago, Calm said:

Stem, There are seasonal variations I believe that are dependent on the school year.  (I understand that they like to make sure the missionary is available to start fall semester when they get back so there isn't a lot of lag time with little to do) Whether or not there has really been a drop would depend on if the number is taken at the same time of the year as the 74,000 count.  Did he say anything that would indicate one way or another?

I'm trying to figure out how to apply your idea of seasonality.  Should we expect a low every September?  What season is our best in terms of number of missionaries?  Either way it seems true that less of our young men are choosing to go on missions these days, then they have for the past, 20 years or so, or less are worthy to go.  seems like a big deal.

[Gray]

6 minutes ago, ALarson said:

Maybe by looking at retention numbers?  But those have been down too, haven't they?

I was speaking to a woman the other day, who mentioned she was in some kind of masonic order for women. She mentioned that they have fewer and few members these days. 

Times are tough for all kinds of groups that have formal affiliation and regular meetings. 

[stemelbow]

1 hour ago, waveslider said:

Imagine what life would be like if/when the U.S. dollar collapses and is all of a sudden completely worthless, so much so that you could throw millions of dollars in cash into the streets and no one would even bother to pick it up. Think of what would happen to not only the U.S. but to all the other nations that have tied their money to the U.S. dollar. What wars would start, as the world's most powerful military comes to a complete stand still, and other countries justify getting some kind of return on the debt that they are due, and will now never be able to get paid, without taking it by force? What will happen to all of the opec nations? There are many more questions like this that need to be asked, but I'm sure you can figure them out on your own as the thought is pondered.

Governments, including the U.S. government create zero revenue, except what is extorted in tax money. The current rate of debt is so bad that the total amount of tax revenue collected from people and corporations isn't even enough to pay off the interest let alone start to make any type of dent into the debt: http://usdebtclock.org/

This is only one scenario. I didn't even mention the proxy war the U.S. is fighting through Turkey, against Russia through Syria. This could very well trigger a WWIII event (which if you dig down into the rabbit hole deep enough you will see the connections to who controls oil reserves and how it is shipped is actually the root of it all in the first place, because the U.S. dollar's worth is only tied to petrol oil and not gold like it used to be, but that can't possibly be explained very well on this discussion board so I digress. If you want to learn the basics on this I suggest starting out with a few documentaries: https://youtu.be/6R_HLMfjGC4 https://youtu.be/B4wU9ZnAKAw https://youtu.be/Sboh-_w43W8 )

I also didn't mention all the cataclysmic disasters that have been prophesied as happening in the times of tribulations like huge Earth quakes, tsunamis, storms, droughts, floods, famines, pestilences, diseases, storms, etc.. There will be a time when the missionaries are all called home, and the only missionary work that will be performed will be locally: https://www.lds.org/manual/teachings-brigham-young/chapter-45?lang=eng

I am not saying this to promote fear, but these things aren't only prophesied, but sciences and math are starting to project a lot of the same things. I personally am grateful for the gospel, and although these things will by hard trials, we are promised to be able to endure them and grow in ways that will bless us further if we endure them properly, standing on holy ground. These are, after all, the signs that tell us that our Savior will return and are something to look for, not cower and fear from. This all said, I am not saying this is in fact why the age change on missionaries was changed, only that it is a possibility and it is at least worth consideration.

ok Gotcha.  So missionaries were sent out younger because this is all going to happen?  And yet for some reason with all the missionaries out there we ended up spreading the word to less than we have before? 

[stemelbow]

1 hour ago, Scott Lloyd said:

Elder Hallstrom did not address that when he gave the number (I too attended the meeting). But he did say the number has stabilized after the decrease from the high of nearly 85,000, a decrease which he said had been "fully expected."

So apparently, Church leaders still believe the number has stabilized. Time will tell, I suppose.

Hey Scott, I'm curious about your claim of rock bottom.  Do you think it was anticipated that the number of missionaries would drop this year?  It seems like all the talk from earlier this year was that we were at the bottom and were only going up from here.  Something about seeing the number back up into the 80 thousands in a year or two. 

[juliann]

In American areas where there are higher concentrations of Mormons, the missionaries don't have enough to do. The neighborhoods have had way too much repetitive tracting. That results in the pleas for members to have them in their homes to let them give lessons. My sister's area opened a new zone and they have multiple sets of missionaries in their ward. They also don't let them stay long enough to build relationships with youth anymore. My daughter was very inspired by a young elder in her earlier years when they stayed longer.  In other words, I have to wonder how appealing or useful missionary service looks to younger ward members anymore in the more populated areas.

[stemelbow]

12 minutes ago, ALarson said:

Maybe by looking at retention numbers?  But those have been down too, haven't they?

Not sure.  I thought it's been argued that retention has improved.  But then I'm not sure.

I also was skimming the book Planted yesterday and Mason mentioned that many members leaving today aren't new converts, necessarily, though they still leave, but he understood many members are those who were multi-generational Mormons...which hurts.  Most of them are just leaving quietly. 

 

[Duncan]

Just now, juliann said:

In American areas where there are higher concentrations of Mormons, the missionaries don't have enough to do. The neighborhoods have had way too much repetitive tracting. That results in the pleas for members to have them in their homes to let them give lessons. My sister's area opened a new zone and they have multiple sets of missionaries in their ward. They also don't let them stay long enough to build relationships with youth anymore. My daughter was very inspired by a young elder in her earlier years when they stayed longer.  In other words, I have to wonder how appealing or useful missionary service looks to younger ward members anymore in the more populated areas.

that was a big problem here until the MP scaled back on how many missionaries they needed, now instead of 3 sets of missionaries we have two and most wards have two instead of three. I had heard...that the 1st Presidency heard this also of too many missionaries in a ward so however or whatever they did now it's scaled back and things seem to be fine. Our ward though hasn't had a ward mission leader for 2 months now and the one before hardly did anything with it and when he did he really stepped into it, but I digress