Missionary number has declined

[stemelbow]

As you will recall a year ago or so Elder Holland predicted to have 100,000 missionaries by 2019.  At that time last year, there was a recent decrease of some couple thousand missionaries from the end of 2014 and the time the article was written.  Today it appears the number has gone down even more.  We're at 75,000 missionaries now--a 13,000 some odd drop from then end of 2014.  Is the age change bubble starting to come back down?  it appears that is the case.  I recall last year I had argued that we won't see the end of the age change bubble until about now.  Anywho, thought it'd be interesting to discuss.  What do we think needs to change for the number of missionaries to increase dramatically over the next 3 years to reach 100,000? 

Follow link to verify 75,000 number. 

http://www.deseretnews.com/article/865645872/Elder-Dallin-H-Oaks-speaks-at-Worldwide-Missionary-Broadcast-Our-message-for-missionaries.html

 

[Calm]

The conversation with Elder Holland.  At that time they had 85,000.  Looks like he is saying they were using statistical methods:

http://www.hughhewitt.com/a-conversation-with-lds-elder-jeffrey-holland/

Quote

But we’re greatly blessed, and they continue to come They continue to serve. And those numbers will increase. We’re projecting out probably within four years, the baseline number for the missionary force will be something around 100,000.

 

Edited February 9, 2016 by Calm

[smac97]

17 minutes ago, stemelbow said:

As you will recall a year ago or so Elder Holland predicted to have 100,000 missionaries by 2019.  At that time last year, there was a recent decrease of some couple thousand missionaries from the end of 2014 and the time the article was written.  Today it appears the number has gone down even more.  We're at 75,000 missionaries now--a 13,000 some odd drop from then end of 2014.  Is the age change bubble starting to come back down?  it appears that is the case.  I recall last year I had argued that we won't see the end of the age change bubble until about now.  Anywho, thought it'd be interesting to discuss.  What do we think needs to change for the number of missionaries to increase dramatically over the next 3 years to reach 100,000? 

Follow link to verify 75,000 number. 

http://www.deseretnews.com/article/865645872/Elder-Dallin-H-Oaks-speaks-at-Worldwide-Missionary-Broadcast-Our-message-for-missionaries.html

I'm not sure Elder Holland was speaking prophetically.  IOW, I think he was "predicting" based on the data available at the time.  

We also just had a recent discussion about this same topic.  I'll repeat my remarks made there, to wit:

Quote

As a general rule I'm content to let the conversion numbers fluctuate.  There are quite a few variables in play, some of which the Church can control, some which the Church can influence, and some which the Church can neither control nor influence.  Missionary lessons.  Missionary teaching and contacting.  Reducing tracting in favor of getting contacts from church members.  A sizable, all-at-once influx of younger missionaries.  The influence of hostile online sources of information/commentary about the Church.  Organized opposition to the Church.  Increasing secularism in the world.  Increasing sexualization of society in the world.  Endless "fun" alternative pastimes (computer games, social media, unending streaming of movies/tv/music, etc.) which, when taken to excess, detract from individuals pursuing personalized, spiritual journeys.  Yep.  All sorts of reasons.

The Church will sort some of these things out.  Our youth will need to be prepared to serve missions at younger ages.  We need to reduce/eliminate the perceived social stigma associated with service missions, or not serving a mission.  We need to improve the role of church members in missionary and retention and reactivation efforts.  We need to live the Gospel with more exactness.

So yes, we have a lot to do.  But at the end of the day, I'm still not going to feel very anxious about membership/conversion numbers.  The numbers will be exciting some times, discouraging at others.  But the work will proceed.  And the work, however "exciting" the numbers get, will, I think, never be earth-shattering.  "And it came to pass that I beheld the church of the Lamb of God, and its numbers were few, because of the wickedness and abominations of the whore who sat upon many waters..." (1 Nephi 14:12).  My surmise is that the membership size of the Church will ebb and flow, but will generally trend upward.  That is not to say that large-scale apostasy is not possible. It might happen some day. It happened in the early days of the Church. It also happened in the primitive Church as recorded in John 6 and described by Elder Neal A. Maxwell this way: 

Quote

The more declarative Jesus was, the more tentative some followers. Is this not the same today? As long as Jesus’ church and its prophets are doing certain things of which people fully approve, there is admiration. But when modern prophets begin to be declarative, then it is a very different matter!

“The Jews then murmured at him, because he said, I am the bread which came down from heaven.” (John 6:41.)

“From that time many of his disciples went back, and walked no more with him.” (John 6:66.)

And by Sister Ardeth G. Kapp here: 

Quote

Sometimes we are shortsighted and are not aware of what awaits us just around the corner following our obedience. We do not “receive a witness until after the trial of [our] faith” (Ether 12:6). We don’t negotiate with our Father in Heaven on these matters. The laws are in place. We know that “there is a law. . . upon which all blessings are predicated,” and we know that when we receive any blessing “it is by obedience to that law” (D&C 130:20).

And so our Father, wanting us to qualify for all of the blessings, has given us laws and commandments. These commandments are given not to restrict us but to redeem us—not to just reform us but to exalt us. Therefore, as Nephi said, “Cheer up your hearts, and remember that ye are free to act for yourselves—to choose the way of everlasting death or the way of eternal life” (2 Nephi 10:23).

Some of us will resent, resist, even recoil from the apparent restrictions imposed upon us. And so it was in the Savior’s time. There were those who didn’t like what he taught. “This is an hard saying; who can hear it?” they said. “When Jesus knew in himself that his disciples murmured at it, he said unto them, Doth this offend you?” (John 6:60–61). And we read that “From that time many of his disciples went back, and walked no more with him” (John 6:66).

At the end of the day, the number of people who have accepted the Restored Gospel is not a first order piece of evidence in favor of (or against) the truth claims of the Restored Gospel. The Church is as true in 2016 with 15+ million members as it was in 1830 with six.

As to what we can do to increase the number of missionaries, see the second paragraph in the above quote.

That said, I'm not sure reaching an arbitrary benchmark number like 100,000 in a specific period of time is necessarily a good thing.  It may even be harmful.  I don't think LDS youth who are not ready for the rigors of missionary service should be subjected to added pressures of feeling obligated to contribute to this arbitrary "goal."

In fact, the more that I think on it, the less I am persuaded that Elder Holland was setting a goal (though I am open to correction on that).

Thanks,

-Smac

Edited February 9, 2016 by smac97

[Calm]

In 2012, there were 58,000 missionaries.  If the age shift bubble is over with, than that means a solid, enduring change of 17,000 or 8,500 per year.

Three years would make that around 25,000.

So I guess whether you find the 100,000 prediction reasonable, it would depend on if you expect numbers to keep growing in the same rate or if you expect other factors to apply to complicate things.

http://www.sltrib.com/blogs/3450134-155/from-surge-to-slump-no-but

Edited February 9, 2016 by Calm

[stemelbow]

9 minutes ago, Calm said:

The conversation with Elder Holland.  At that time they had 85,000.  Looks like he is saying they were using statistical methods:

http://www.hughhewitt.com/a-conversation-with-lds-elder-jeffrey-holland/

 

yes, it was kinda weird to me, the number at the end of 2014 was 88,000, they had a significant decrease over the month or two later and yet their statistical methods were telling them it'd reach 88,000 by 2019.  I figured they still had to wait until the age change increase bubble had ended, but got some flack for that around here, as I recall. 

I'm curious what it was that gave him the impression, or those who determined the baseline number.  Are we saying we should as should he back off that prediction? 

[stemelbow]

12 minutes ago, smac97 said:

I'm not sure Elder Holland was speaking prophetically.  IOW, I think he was "predicting" based on the data available at the time.  

We also just had a recent discussion about this same topic.  I'll repeat my remarks made there, to wit:

As to what we can do to increase the number of missionaries, see the second paragraph in the above quote.

That said, I'm not sure reaching an arbitrary benchmark number like 100,000 in a specific period of time is necessarily a good thing.  It may even be harmful.  I don't think LDS youth who are not ready for the rigors of missionary service should be subjected to added pressures of feeling obligated to contribute to this arbitrary "goal."

In fact, the more that I think on it, the less I am persuaded that Elder Holland was setting a goal (though I am open to correction on that).

Thanks,

-Smac

I agree I don't think it was setting a goal.  it seemed to be more about using statistical methods to forecast.  I recall, last year, I looked at the number of children of record being added to the Church and it increased around 2000, but I don't remember it being that steep of an increase.  I'll have to look. 

[ksfisher]

8 minutes ago, stemelbow said:

 Are we saying we should as should he back off that prediction? 

Is it the kind of thing that really matters that much?

[stemelbow]

15 minutes ago, Calm said:

In 2012, there were 58,000 missionaries.  If the age shift bubble is over with, than that means a solid, enduring change of 17,000 or 8,500 per year.

Three years would make that around 25,000.

So I guess whether you find the 100,000 prediction reasonable, it would depend on if you expect numbers to keep growing in the same rate or if you expect other factors to apply to complicate things.

http://www.sltrib.com/blogs/3450134-155/from-surge-to-slump-no-but

That would be ridiculous huge, no?  I tend to think the great increase occurred because of the change--more missionary-aged men and women have gone as a percentage than it was before the change.  The rate of increase doesn't seem likely if that is the case.  It appears the age change provided a bump.  Too bad we didn't have this age change 20 or 30 years ago.  We might have even more missionaries now, if ya think about it, though. 

 

[stemelbow]

4 minutes ago, ksfisher said:

Is it the kind of thing that really matters that much?

I guess not.  But it'd be nice to know that when they speak they have reason to say what they say.  But in this case it seems no one is expecting his prediction to matter. 

[Johnnie Cake]

Were I the church, I'd be more concerned about the missionary to convert ratio than I would be to the number of missionaries in the field...something is amiss...Be it the message or the effectiveness of the missionary force The number of converts as a % of church membership continues to decline despite an increase in missionaries.  And now with this decline in missionaries...what exactly does that foretell?

[ksfisher]

4 minutes ago, stemelbow said:

I guess not.  But it'd be nice to know that when they speak they have reason to say what they say.  But in this case it seems no one is expecting his prediction to matter. 

I think it represents a good faith effort by the church, as expressed by Elder Holland, to predict the number of missionaries the church expects to have serving by 2019.  The closer we get to that date the more accurately the number can be refined.  Forecasting is important to any large organization. 

[Calm]

3 hours ago, stemelbow said:

 It appears the age change provided a bump. 

Someone if they haven't already, should go get numbers for about 10-20 years prior to 2012 to see what the average rate of change was for that time period.

[Scott Lloyd]

We had a discussion about this several weeks ago. Too bad stemelbow missed it. 

The number was at about 58,000 when the age changes were announced in 2012. The change in age started a surge that topped out at nearly 90,000 and began to diminish as the surge worked through the pipeline. Sources tell me it has bottomed out at 75,000 -- still well above the 58,000 of 20012 -- and is now rising again. One online observer (quoted in a SL Trib blog post) predicted that if past growth opatterns hold true, the number will be back up in the eighthy-thousands within the next year or two. 

Edited February 10, 2016 by Scott Lloyd

[Scott Lloyd]

One thing to keep in mind when observing missionary numbers is that there will be seasonal fluctuations that weren't present before. 

This is illustrated by the case of my son. He turned 18  in February but was not eligible for missionary service until he graduated from high school. He did not leave until September, less than five months shy of his 19th birthday. 

[The Nehor]

6 hours ago, Johnnie Cake said:

Were I the church, I'd be more concerned about the missionary to convert ratio than I would be to the number of missionaries in the field...something is amiss...Be it the message or the effectiveness of the missionary force The number of converts as a % of church membership continues to decline despite an increase in missionaries.  And now with this decline in missionaries...what exactly does that foretell?

The final burning of the wicked as the last of the elect are gathered?

[Calm]

1 hour ago, Scott Lloyd said:

The number was at about 68,000 when the age changes were announced in 2012. 

Unless I misread it (see my post with link above), it was actually at 58,000.

[Calm]

Quote

if past growth opatterns hold true, the number will be back up in the eighthy-thousands within the next year or two. 

Do you think it is likely to have a 25,000 additional missionaries in three years though (or almost four if the goal is for the end of 2019)?

[sjdawg]

Does this mean Scott Lloyd can stop his timer or does this reduction not count?

 

 

Edited February 10, 2016 by sjdawg

[Calm]

(as of December, reported the following April)

2009:  51,736

2010:  52,225

2011:  55,410

2012:  58,990

2013:  83,035

2014:  85,147

2015:  75,000ish and rising again as reported by Scott's sources.

Got these stats from lds.org.  Looks like growth was at most 3500 a year prior to the age change.  Someone has undoubtedly already charted this, but it does seem like it is unlikely that in a little under four years there would be a 25,000 gain.  Perhaps 20,000.  However, I am not a stat watcher for this and undoubtedly the Church has better records, especially of the number of potential missionaries that will be available.  

Edited February 10, 2016 by Calm

[sjdawg]

I'm curious to know if the age change will have an impact (positive or negative) on the number of returned missionaries that remain active in the church.

[why me]

10 hours ago, Johnnie Cake said:

Were I the church, I'd be more concerned about the missionary to convert ratio than I would be to the number of missionaries in the field...something is amiss...Be it the message or the effectiveness of the missionary force The number of converts as a % of church membership continues to decline despite an increase in missionaries.  And now with this decline in missionaries...what exactly does that foretell?

I think that it has more to do with secularism especially in the west. Not easy to get any religious message across. Also, christian churches are perhaps losing members to the secular view. I also think that one reason for more orthodoxy in islam is the threat of secularization. I see this happening in europe as muslim parents are dressing their daughters in the hajib at an earlier age. I also think that people are more reluctant to change their faith, especially if they are only nominal members. They may see very little use in changing their faiths. I also think that recent books on atheism have played a part in all this. Such books can tend to be best sellers.

It foretells that christianity is in trouble, at least in the western world. And that Islam will continue its march over the world as nominal christians allow it to happen. In social darwinism, the strong succeed and the weak die. If true, it is no different with ideas or with a religious outlook.

Edited February 10, 2016 by why me

[Scott Lloyd]

6 hours ago, Calm said:

Unless I misread it (see my post with link above), it was actually at 58,000.

Yes, you are right. I stand corrected. I will fix my post accordingly. 

So that's a net gain of 17,000 since late 2012. 

[Scott Lloyd]

6 hours ago, sjdawg said:

Does this mean Scott Lloyd can stop his timer or does this reduction not count?

 

 

The clock is still running. 

Mike Reed predicted that the number would drop back down in two or three years. I took this to mean it would drop to the 2012 pre-surge level of 58,000. 

However, as we have seen, it stands at 75,000, which is s net gain of 17,000 since late 2012. And, as I said, my sources indicate that it has bottomed out and is now rising again. If it continues to do so, Mike Reed's prediction will be for naught. 

Bear in mind it was foregone that the number would fall a bit after the surge had topped out at 90,000 and those who were already on missions when the surge transpired came home. 

To put it another way, there were two cohorts in the mission field: those who were already there and those who came with the surge. The question has always been whether there would be a net gain once the surge had worked its way through the pipeline. That appears to have happened, as 17,000 is quite the net gain, no?

There were scarcely 17,000 in total at the time I left on my mission in August of 1974. 

Edited February 10, 2016 by Scott Lloyd

[Scott Lloyd]

7 hours ago, Calm said:

Do you think it is likely to have a 25,000 additional missionaries in three years though (or almost four if the goal is for the end of 2019)?

Are you referring to Elder Holland's prediction?  He may have been a bit optimistic. 

Be wonderful if it happened though. 

[stemelbow]

9 hours ago, Scott Lloyd said:

We had a discussion about this several weeks ago. Too bad stemelbow missed it. 

The number was at about 58,000 when the age changes were announced in 2012. The change in age started a surge that topped out at nearly 90,000 and began to diminish as the surge worked through the pipeline. Sources tell me it has bottomed out at 75,000 -- still well above the 58,000 of 20012 -- and is now rising again. One online observer (quoted in a SL Trib blog post) predicted that if past growth opatterns hold true, the number will be back up in the eighthy-thousands within the next year or two. 

Sure.  I've been in and out the past few months.  It was interesting as we discussed this last year.  The article that quoted Elder Holland suggested people were predicting the number to drop back down to the 70 thousands.  And yet the Church, and those who were saying Elder Holland may be on to something were saying the surge from the age change was over but the number was staying in the 80 thousands.  I think it might have even been you who were trying to make an issue out of someone else suggesting the number might drop back down again, which it did, as many predicted.  Here's the post: 

Also last year as this was discussed it was assumed by many that the age change bump was over with, but I and others continued to argue we can't be sure, and it's likely the number will drop further.  The article that quoted Elder Holland suggested the number was only going to rise from the 85,000 there were at that time.  But it dropped to the 70 thousand that people were arguing against. 

That's some fun recollection.  Dropping from a high of 88,000 Dec 2014 to 75,000 now is a pretty steep drop, that'd average 1,000 per month.  I'd maintain we'd need some pretty drastic changes to happen for the 100,000 to be realized.  So I wonder, perhaps, if Elder Holland and others have some changes to make.  It appears he might not have realized the number would decrease as it has, over the past year, but he might have known as holds out hope in that changes are yet to come.  What could those be?