Popular Post Judd Posted February 25, 2016 Popular Post Posted February 25, 2016 (edited) 4 hours ago, TheSkepticChristian said: Good point, but many of them were called to be apostles in their 40s and 50s. We know Presidents Hinckley and Monson were young. President Hunter at age 51. President Benson at age 34. President Kimball pretty young too. President Kimball had heart surgery. I don't see how can they detect health problem so early, they cannot predict heart problems for the distant future, especially 20 to 40 years ago. I know there are a lot of factors, but don't you think good healthcare and less physical work helps? What's the average life-expectancy for apostles anyway? Here's a better baseline population comparison: http://www.belnapfamily.org/brentjbelnap/institute/Preventive_Medicine_2008_Lifestyle_and_Mormon_Mortality_Enstrom.pdf Regarding good healthcare, my biased opinion as a physician is that access to care would not be nearly as large of a variable as genetics and lifestyle. There's a societal belief that healthcare access is a much bigger determinant of health than it really is, not to say there aren't important components and exceptions to that. That being said, the question of the absolute difference of quality of healthcare access between an apostle and another matched LDS peer would be fairly negligible, in my estimate (obviously no real data to support that assertion). Edited February 25, 2016 by Judd 6
TheSkepticChristian Posted February 25, 2016 Author Posted February 25, 2016 39 minutes ago, Judd said: as large of a variable as genetics and lifestyle. . true
Avatar4321 Posted February 25, 2016 Posted February 25, 2016 13 hours ago, Duncan said: I know a few guys who want to be Bishop and I hope to God above they never get it. I know two people who have publicly stated they want to be a General Authority, one now is totally and completely inactive and the other was my first Mission President. Funnily enough with the MP others around him were called to be a GA but not him! Thing that I don't get is one said they want to help others come unto Christ, which is a noble goal, but why can't you do that now? why wait for some big whippy flippy calling you can stay home with your wife and kids and do it today You can. I don't know their hearts but perhaps the problem is they want to be seen bringing people to Christ rather than just doing it 1
Avatar4321 Posted February 25, 2016 Posted February 25, 2016 6 hours ago, TheSkepticChristian said: Good point, but many of them were called to be apostles in their 40s and 50s. We know Presidents Hinckley and Monson were young. President Hunter at age 51. President Benson at age 34. President Kimball pretty young too. President Kimball had heart surgery. I don't see how can they detect health problem so early, they cannot predict heart problems for the distant future, especially 20 to 40 years ago. I know there are a lot of factors, but don't you think good healthcare and less physical work helps? The oath and covenant help more
Sevenbak Posted February 25, 2016 Posted February 25, 2016 12 hours ago, Johnnie Cake said: I'm good friends with 2 LDS General Authorities. Yes they know I'm a non-believer. I'm familiar with their daily schedules, spent time in their offices in the CAB...and while busy...let's not blow it out of proportion. They are hard working dedicated men who maintain a daily office schedule, have a pool of secretaries to handle their every beck and call. These men close shop at 5PM just like in corporate America and have their personal drivers take them home for the evening. They have their noon meals at the CAB...fully catered, They get the entire month of July off for vacation time and other perks like free university for their children and grand children at BYU, box seats to football games, gold plated health insurance, a chauffeured up scale car and while not the highly rumored incomes some critics believe they make...it is sufficient for their needs. Pretty much the same perks one would expect from any corporate officer in such a high management position. This is not a 24/7 job...but would I personally want it...heck no...no way in heck will I be working at the age Gee, that doesn't mesh with my observations. Elder L. Tom Perry pumping his own gas at a Maverick into a small sedan, for instance. Or President Monson's very small rambler home where he lived for decades as a member of the FP, and still would if not for security issues for the President. 2
Meadowchik Posted February 25, 2016 Posted February 25, 2016 18 hours ago, TheSkepticChristian said: Good point, but many of them were called to be apostles in their 40s and 50s. We know Presidents Hinckley and Monson were young. President Hunter at age 51. President Benson at age 34. President Kimball pretty young too. President Kimball had heart surgery. I don't see how can they detect health problem so early, they cannot predict heart problems for the distant future, especially 20 to 40 years ago. I know there are a lot of factors, but don't you think good healthcare and less physical work helps? No one needs to be able to predict future health....That's not the point. The thing is, they've already reached adulthood alive, which makes them a non-random sampling of the population which already avoids sigificant mortality-rate and premature death problems.
bluebell Posted February 25, 2016 Posted February 25, 2016 On February 24, 2016 at 1:37 AM, TheSkepticChristian said: What about Bishop? Many want to be Bishop (the toughest church job). Only the dumb ones. 2
TheSkepticChristian Posted February 25, 2016 Author Posted February 25, 2016 3 hours ago, Meadowchik said: No one needs to be able to predict future health....That's not the point. The thing is, they've already reached adulthood alive, which makes them a non-random sampling of the population which already avoids sigificant mortality-rate and premature death problems. Nothing to do with premature death problems, it is not like the average, but here is another graph, life expectancy for those the reached 65. Prophets are still above life expectancy.
TheSkepticChristian Posted February 25, 2016 Author Posted February 25, 2016 17 hours ago, Judd said: That being said, the question of the absolute difference of quality of healthcare access between an apostle and another matched LDS peer would be fairly negligible, in my estimate (obviously no real data to support that assertion). How about
cinepro Posted February 25, 2016 Posted February 25, 2016 On 2/24/2016 at 0:12 AM, TheSkepticChristian said: I am also impressed that all the prophets live above the life expectancy! All of them! including above life expectancy in Utah, "Twenty years ago, the overall life expectancy for a man in Utah was about 74.3 years" What a miracle, it is God that is helping them live longer with their tough and stressful jobs! I am sure it has nothing to do with first class healthcare and healthy food. I am also sure that being a General Authority is very stressful. I am also sure that everyone else, regular LDS, have easier lives and less worries! It should also be pointed out that at least one prophet didn't live above the life expectancy for his generation.
cinepro Posted February 25, 2016 Posted February 25, 2016 Also, this: Survivorship Bias Survivorship bias, or survival bias, is the logical error of concentrating on the people or things that "survived" some process and inadvertently overlooking those that did not because of their lack of visibility. This can lead to false conclusions in several different ways. The survivors may be actual people, as in a medical study, or could be companies or research subjects or applicants for a job, or anything that must make it past some selection process to be considered further. Survivorship bias can lead to overly optimistic beliefs because failures are ignored, such as when companies that no longer exist are excluded from analyses of financial performance. It can also lead to the false belief that the successes in a group have some special property, rather than just coincidence. For example, if three of the five students with the best college grades went to the same high school, that can lead one to believe that the high school must offer an excellent education. This could be true, but the question cannot be answered without looking at the grades of all the other students from that high school, not just the ones who "survived" the top-five selection process.
TheSkepticChristian Posted February 25, 2016 Author Posted February 25, 2016 32 minutes ago, cinepro said: It should also be pointed out that at least one prophet didn't live above the life expectancy for his generation. Which one? Please look at the Graph
cinepro Posted February 25, 2016 Posted February 25, 2016 1 minute ago, TheSkepticChristian said: Which one? Please look at the Graph The one that didn't.
cinepro Posted February 25, 2016 Posted February 25, 2016 (edited) I apologize. If we're judging the life expectancy as the life expectancy at the age of 65 (for those who reached age 65), then there are two that didn't reach their expected expiration date. Edited February 25, 2016 by cinepro
Judd Posted February 25, 2016 Posted February 25, 2016 1 hour ago, TheSkepticChristian said: How about So is the suggestion that being an apostle is a significant variable in determining whether one is in the top half of earners versus bottom half of earners? 1
TheSkepticChristian Posted February 26, 2016 Author Posted February 26, 2016 (edited) 3 hours ago, cinepro said: I apologize. If we're judging the life expectancy as the life expectancy at the age of 65 (for those who reached age 65), then there are two that didn't reach their expected expiration date. Can you name them please, Joseph Smith doesn't count. Please make sure you look at the year, for example in 1977 the life expectancy was 80 for the top 50%. 3 hours ago, Judd said: So is the suggestion that being an apostle is a significant variable in determining whether one is in the top half of earners versus bottom half of earners? No Edited February 26, 2016 by TheSkepticChristian
Judd Posted February 26, 2016 Posted February 26, 2016 4 minutes ago, TheSkepticChristian said: No What was the purpose of the graph?
cinepro Posted February 26, 2016 Posted February 26, 2016 (edited) 2 hours ago, TheSkepticChristian said: Can you name them please, Joseph Smith doesn't count. Please make sure you look at the year, for example in 1977 the life expectancy was 80 for the top 50%. In your OP, you said: Quote I am also impressed that all the prophets live above the life expectancy! All of them! So unless you have a unique definition of the word "all", Joseph Smith does count (he's the first one at the link you posted). But if you're saying that other than the ones that didn't make it to above-average life-expectancy all the prophets have had above-average life expectancy, then I would agree with you. President Lee lived to 74.75, which, according to the charts here is just a few months over the life expectancy for someone born in 1900 who reached the age of 60, but is less than the expectancy for someone who was born in 1900 and reached the age of 70 (he was born in 1899, but the stats are only for 1900). Edited February 26, 2016 by cinepro
cinepro Posted February 26, 2016 Posted February 26, 2016 2 hours ago, Judd said: What was the purpose of the graph? Well, obviously we can use the average life-expectancy of the Apostles and that graph to estimate what their stipend is.
TheSkepticChristian Posted February 26, 2016 Author Posted February 26, 2016 7 minutes ago, cinepro said: President Lee lived to 74.75, which, according to the charts here is just a few months over the life expectancy for someone born in 1900 who reached the age of 60, but is less than the expectancy for someone who was born in 1900 and reached the age of 70 (he was born in 1899, but the stats are only for 1900). Hallelujah you proved me wrong. Just one prophet wow
The Nehor Posted February 26, 2016 Posted February 26, 2016 It is a pretty fair bet that most of the prophets from here on out will beat the life expectancy charts simply because they already have when they outlive all apostles senior to them. 1
TheSkepticChristian Posted February 26, 2016 Author Posted February 26, 2016 7 hours ago, The Nehor said: It is a pretty fair bet that most of the prophets from here on out will beat the life expectancy charts simply because they already have when they outlive all apostles senior to them. It's not by age, it is the time they have serving as apostles. So why don't they die like 1 to 3 years after being called as presidents of the church? Most of them live 5+ years.
Walden Posted February 26, 2016 Posted February 26, 2016 On 2/24/2016 at 0:12 AM, TheSkepticChristian said: Dan Peterson wrote, " I’ve seen enough of the responsibilities of the Twelve, and of their daily schedules, to know that it doesn’t get any easier on their level, nor, really, much more glamorous. Can you imagine reaching the age of the three men just called to the Twelve, learning that you will spend the rest of your life in meetings, on planes, at airports, sleeping in guest rooms or hotels, living out of suitcases, dealing with weighty issues, confronted with urgent situations, facing difficult decisions, bearing enormous administrative loads? That you will never be permitted to retire? " It must be very tough to be a General Authority and probably very stressful. It sounds like a hard working job! Sounds like the job description of every other corporate executive leading billion-dollar corporations that I have known or read about...stressful, time-consuming, tiring, etc. What's Dan's point?
cinepro Posted February 26, 2016 Posted February 26, 2016 26 minutes ago, TheSkepticChristian said: It's not by age, it is the time they have serving as apostles. So why don't they die like 1 to 3 years after being called as presidents of the church? You mean like Lorenzo Snow, Joseph Fielding Smith, Harold B. Lee, and Howard W. Hunter?
Walden Posted February 26, 2016 Posted February 26, 2016 On 2/24/2016 at 0:30 PM, cinepro said: Be careful about that. Remember that you are comparing a number for general life expectancy (which includes people who die at a young age) with a group that is selected of men in their 50's or 60's and are known to be of good health (people with terminal illnesses or impairments aren't called to the Apostleship). I'm pretty sure the valid comparison would be to compare the life expectancy of General Authorities with other LDS men who have already reached the average age of the call for an Apostle. Please, if these were truly holy men, they would be living several hundred years, just like those truly holy men Noah, Moses, etc.
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