Lds Church Population By 2020 - Will It Even Be Close To The 35 Million Rodney Stark Predicted?

[Bikeemikey]

Well I have finished the data using almanacs that have numbers back to 1830. There have been 4 years when the church numbers actually shrank. 1839, 1855, 1856, and 1857. The largest percentage decrease was in 1857 when there was a 15% decrease in membership.

After 1850 the largest percentage increase was 15% in 1853. In a more modern context the largest percentage growth occurred in 1961, 1962, and 1963 when there was a 7.2% increase each year. The lowest percentage growth of the 20th and 21st centuries occurred in 1930 and 1937 with 0.9% growth rate.

Having said all of this yearly stats are difficult to gauge, so I also ran some numbers by decade. This is the % increase each decade, and the total number of net numbers of new members. (It isn't a convert baptism, age of 8, or other measurement. It is a combination of deaths, new converts, and 8 year olds etc.)

1830's 98% 16,180

1840's 65% 31,295

1850's 9% 5,199

1860's 29% 27,350

1870's 30% 38,256

1880's 27% 49,516

1890's 31% 83,418

1900's 24% 93,514

1910's 22% 109,483

1920's 21% 137,665

1930's 17% 133,511

1940's 31% 216,007

1950's 31% 504,774

1960's 40% 1,114,276

1970's 33% 1,473,311

1980's 30% 2,668,622

1990's 28% 2,991,777

2000's 20% 2,755,993

From 2010 to 2013 there have been 896,585 new net members. if the trend continues of the first four years of this decade continues until 2019 we will be at 17.7 million.

Having said all of this, by looking at growth from a decade long perspective, you can see that it fluctuates for various reasons. I don't expect it to stay the same, there was a decrease in the number of missionaries from 2003-2011, and the 36,196 missionaries that were serving in 2002 was only surpassed in 2013 by the 48,892.

While I don't doubt the rationale and purpose behind raising the bar, I believe it was a bigger factor in the smaller number of converts in the first decade of this century. I am glad more sisters are going and elders at 18, there will be dividends both temporally and spiritually for this.

Thanks for the data.

[eddie]

I should have stated called, not serving.  The number of missionaries called dropped in 2003 from 36196 to 30467, and even more in 2005 to 29548.

[juliann]

If we reintroduce polygamy and start having 10-18 children per wife, we could be well beyond that figure without any missionary effort.  That is, if you count born in the covenant children as members. 

That doesn't make any sense at all. Polygamy doesn't produce any more children than monogamy does, historically those who shared a husband had less children than those who didn't. So if you want more children, marry monogamously, make a really good salary, and find a woman who doesn't mind being pregnant for most of her life.  Good luck with that.

[Coreyb]

That doesn't make any sense at all. Polygamy doesn't produce any more children than monogamy does, historically those who shared a husband had less children than those who didn't. So if you want more children, marry monogamously, make a really good salary, and find a woman who doesn't mind being pregnant for most of her life.  Good luck with that.

Salary doesnt have to affect the amount of children a couple has, just ask my parents, or most people who live in poverty

[Duncan]

I should have stated called, not serving.  The number of missionaries called dropped in 2003 from 36196 to 30467, and even more in 2005 to 29548.

 

 

I recall Elder Earl Tingey of the 70 coming here and saying they expected that drop, someone said I don't know if it's true but Pres. Hinckley gave a BYU devotional 20 or so years earlier and mentioned using birth control and so couples apparently heeded the message, but who knows

[BCSpace]

Lds Church Population By 2020 - Will It Even Be Close To The 35 Million Rodney Stark Predicted?

 

Growth rates have not been constant in line with 1992 which was the qualification for the prediction, so probably not.

[Stargazer]

Personally , I don't think the administration of the church could handle the influx of even 5 million more new members in 6 years. There would have to be a massive change in " the way things are done" .

 

Probably a large reason why the Great Apostasy occurred was because the church grew too fast for the leadership to keep up, given the slowness of communications.  In these days of instant communications, this definitely  makes it different.  If a new branch president can be in quick communications with an experienced leader, then it makes it much better than in "olden days".

[eddie]

I recall Elder Earl Tingey of the 70 coming here and saying they expected that drop, someone said I don't know if it's true but Pres. Hinckley gave a BYU devotional 20 or so years earlier and mentioned using birth control and so couples apparently heeded the message, but who knows

The drop was far too sudden to be attributed to that, and every year except for 4 in 184, the Church of Jesus Christ of Latter Day Saints has had some type of annual growth rate.

In any event, the drop may or may not have been caused by the change in standard, but it takes missionaries to increase conversions, and while it is impossible to prove the lower growth was due to this, the relatioship whether spurious or not exists.

Though the growth rate was lower this year convert baptisms did slightly increase. I truly expect this to continue once the church gets the missionaries under control.

[Scott Lloyd]

Anyone have thoughts on this...

Here is an article about church vital statistics from 1992.

http://eom.byu.edu/index.php/Vital_Statistics

Old news!

Stark's prognostications were discredited long ago.

And it doesn't matter anyway. Worldwide predominance of the Church is not necessary for fulfillment of prophecy prior to the Second Coming. In fact, Nephi's vision indicates otherwise and presents a scenario that resembles conditions today with precision. The Church ofvthe Lamb of God, though few in numbers, will continue to prepare for His coming in glory.

Why are you dredging this up?

[Freedom]

I creates a chart in excel of all the church statistics since 1970.I don't know how to post it

[Alan]

I think we have to understand that the church does not, and should not, have to always grow.

Looking to growth rates suggests a very western, corporate mindset in my view.

 

In our ward council we emplasise growth, but we focus that in terms of the growth in discipleship and the deepening of faith. Straightforward numbers are not really considered.

[rockpond]

I think we have to understand that the church does not, and should not, have to always grow.

Looking to growth rates suggests a very western, corporate mindset in my view.

In our ward council we emplasise growth, but we focus that in terms of the growth in discipleship and the deepening of faith. Straightforward numbers are not really considered.

Valid point. But we'll need to redefine what it means to "hasten the work".

[thesometimesaint]

Valid point. But we'll need to redefine what it means to "hasten the work".

 

Hastening the work just means teaching the gospel to more people, not necessarily for more members.

[Bikeemikey]

Salary doesnt have to affect the amount of children a couple has, just ask my parents, or most people who live in poverty

In fact low income is often tied to higher numbers of children, not less.

Edited May 1, 2014 by Bikeemikey

[Bikeemikey]

Old news!

Stark's prognostications were discredited long ago.

And it doesn't matter anyway. Worldwide predominance of the Church is not necessary for fulfillment of prophecy prior to the Second Coming. In fact, Nephi's vision indicates otherwise and presents a scenario that resembles conditions today with precision. The Church ofvthe Lamb of God, though few in numbers, will continue to prepare for His coming in glory.

Why are you dredging this up?

More like very old news! Over twenty years old now.

Had someone at church on Sunday comment how the growth of the church would reach many hundreds of millions by the end of the century. Seems Starks article has become a deep seated mythology for some members.

I was curious what people of the forum thought.

[randy]

I believe that the Church is in fact reaching hundreds of millions of people in some form or fashion.  I agree with Scott's point...this isn't a numbers game we're involved in. As I see it, each one of us should strive to live the gospel to the best of our abilities and understanding, open our mouths every now and again and share something positive with our friends/family etc, then have faith that the spirit of the HG will do the converting. I will have faith that the fulltime Missionaries will come into the field better prepared to do the work...and each one of them will bear some good fruit.   The numbers will be what they will be.  We will keep doing this until the appointed time when the Savior will come again in his glory.

 

My understanding has always been that the Church's mandate was to be able to give everyone the opportunity to hear the gospel. We don't know, nor can we necessarily qualify what an "opportunity" consists of.  But, I believe the Church is doing everything within it's power and scope of influence to share with the world through every means at it's disposal...the gospel of Jesus Christ. I believe the Church is meetings it's mandate given it by the Lord.

[rockpond]

Hastening the work just means teaching the gospel to more people, not necessarily for more members.

I've most often heard it explained as growing the church. But I think your definition works as well.

[rockpond]

In the 1999-2000 Almanac it states that converts began to be the bigger portion of new members around 1960.

Where can one get access to the church almanacs?

[thesometimesaint]

I've most often heard it explained as growing the church. But I think your definition works as well.

 

I think it can be used that way. But not that it must be used that way. IE: We are to be the salt of the earth. Too little salt and the bread tastes like sawdust, and too much salt it tastes bad too.

[Scott Lloyd]

I've most often heard it explained as growing the church. But I think your definition works as well.

As I understand it, there is a great deal more involved in hastening the work than increasing the number or rate of convert baptisms. Getting more people involved in doing family history --  more volunteers doing online indexing of genealogical records, getting members to take names to the temple from research of their own ancestral lines, online sharing of ancestral stories and photos -- is certainly a big part of it.

 

Another aspect is reactivation of members who have strayed and retaining converts.

 

The new youth curriculum introduced a couple of years ago with the goal of strengthening their testimonies and increasing their spiritual experiences is another major part of it.

 

I would say making the Church's positive influence felt in the world at large through individual and general humanitarian service and involvement in community affairs is another part of it.

Edited May 1, 2014 by Scott Lloyd

[Scott Lloyd]

Where can one get access to the church almanacs?

Deseret Book, if any are still available.

 

We (Deseret News) didn't publish one last year.

[eddie]

Deseret Book, if any are still available.

 

We (Deseret News) didn't publish one last year.

 

You can find them online.

 

I was sad to see them out of print this year,  I usually buy them every few years to monitor how things have changed.  I have in my possession a 2000, 2005, 2006, and 2010.   I am going to get the 2013 since it may be the last one.

 

https://www.google.com/search?q=lds+church+almanac&hl=en&gbv=2&prmd=ivns&source=lnms&tbm=shop&sa=X&ei=2IRiU-WCLJO4yAGP54CoDg&ved=0CAgQ_AU

[Scott Lloyd]

You can find them online.

 

I was sad to see them out of print this year,  I usually buy them every few years to monitor how things have changed.  I have in my possession a 2000, 2005, 2006, and 2010.   I am going to get the 2013 since it may be the last one.

 

https://www.google.com/search?q=lds+church+almanac&hl=en&gbv=2&prmd=ivns&source=lnms&tbm=shop&sa=X&ei=2IRiU-WCLJO4yAGP54CoDg&ved=0CAgQ_AU

Here's a web page where the 2013 book can be ordered. Looks like Deseret Book is clearing them out at quite a markdown.

 

I should mention here that the almanac has not officially been discontinued. For quite a period of time, it was published every two years. Then, it went to annual publication. Now, officially speaking, it has gone back to being published every two years.

[eddie]

As a sidenote, looking at membership stats from year to year, and country to country puts all of this into perspective.  I see all over that the LDS church is dying, the internet is hurting them etc etc, but the truth is that over the past 184 years there have been ebbs and flows.  Many other denominations are shrinking, but the LDS church is not.  The only place where the overall numbers have actually shrunk (with a minimum of 1000 members) is in Denmark, the land of many of my ancestors.

 

Everywhere else there are more now than there were in 2003.    There were a couple of places where the number of stakes and wards fell, mainly Louisiana.   California has fewer stakes, but more wards, and Chile has fewer stakes, because in the late 90's, 27 stakes were disbanded.

 

Outside of all of those, every place in the world has seen an increase, and though the church grew at a slower pace this past decade than it did in the 90's, there were several decades it grew more slowly.

[eddie]

Here's a web page where the 2013 book can be ordered. Looks like Deseret Book is clearing them out at quite a markdown.

 

I should mention here that the almanac has not officially been discontinued. For quite a period of time, it was published every two years. Then, it went to annual publication. Now, officially speaking, it has gone back to being published every two years.

 

Good to know, I am a bit of nerd tracking this stuff, particularly Italy.  (Went on a missions there.)  I did see the link, plan on buying one today.