Lds Church Population By 2020 - Will It Even Be Close To The 35 Million Rodney Stark Predicted?

[Bikeemikey]

Anyone have thoughts on this...

Here is an article about church vital statistics from 1992.

http://eom.byu.edu/index.php/Vital_Statistics

Although projections based on current growth rates are usually not precise predictions of the future, such projections do indicate future possibilities. Using past patterns of growth as a baseline, religious sociologist Rodney Stark has projected an LDS population of 265 million by the year 2080. Using this projection, Stark has predicted that the LDS Church will become the next major world religion. If growth rates for the total membership observed between 1980 and 1989 remain constant, the membership will increase to 12 million by the year 2000, to 35 million by 2020, and to 157 million by the mid-twenty-first century (Fig. 2). But some regions are growing faster than others. If regional rates of growth remain constant, growth will be even more dramatic in some areas.

[Gray]

I'd guess 17 or 18 million members of record by then, maybe 6 million active

Edited April 30, 2014 by Gray

[strappinglad]

Maybe 2 million more members.

If we use the growth rate of the young lad from age 13 to 16 and extrapolate to age 50 we get a 15 foot tall human.

Of course , if China were to suddenly open up, all bets are off.

[Bikeemikey]

Maybe 2 million more members.

If we use the growth rate of the young lad from age 13 to 16 and extrapolate to age 50 we get a 15 foot tall human.

Of course , if China were to suddenly open up, all bets are off.

I served my mission in Taiwan... It would be very interesting to see what would happen in China.

[strappinglad]

Personally , I don't think the administration of the church could handle the influx of even 5 million more new members in 6 years. There would have to be a massive change in " the way things are done" .

[Freedom]

Church growth up until about 1999 was around 4-5%/year. It suddenly dropped to 2%. Within 10 years, growth could be as low as 1%/year or it could jump back up to 4%. Impossible to say. 

[eddie]

I think it will be around 20 million.  With the influx of new missionaries, it is taking some adjustment to accommodate them, but as they do get settled and end up opening new areas, the number of converts will rise.

 

It is difficult to say whether a compound growth rate will apply, there are too many variables, but when "the Bar was raised" and the number of missionaries dropped, the growth rate dropped a little as well.   The newer model will IMO see more baptisms simply because there are more missionaries.

[pogi]

If we reintroduce polygamy and start having 10-18 children per wife, we could be well beyond that figure without any missionary effort.  That is, if you count born in the covenant children as members. 

[Calm]

And if we start cloning ourselves the numbers will be even higher.

[pogi]

And if we start cloning ourselves the numbers will be even higher.

 

I think it would be easier and cheaper to just start baptizing family pets. 

[Calm]

Might as well just count all the proxy work and be done with it.

[rockpond]

Anyone have thoughts on this...

Here is an article about church vital statistics from 1992.

http://eom.byu.edu/index.php/Vital_Statistics

 

 

We aren't even close to those numbers.

 

Our current trend puts us at 20 million members around the year 2030.  And that's IF we can keep up the current trend.

[Bikeemikey]

I think it would be easier and cheaper to just start baptizing family pets.

That is funny....

[Bikeemikey]

We aren't even close to those numbers.

Our current trend puts us at 20 million members around the year 2030. And that's IF we can keep up the current trend.

I see on again off again data from people mining the church membership stats suggesting that the church has actually had a number of years of membership shrinkage lately... do you (or anyone else) know of any good resources for this kind of data/information?

[eddie]

I see on again off again data from people mining the church membership stats suggesting that the church has actually had a number of years of membership shrinkage lately... do you (or anyone else) know of any good resources for this kind of data/information?

 

No.

 

I am working on a growth chart right now, but the last time there was any shrinking membership, was between 1838 and 1839.   By 1841 they had gotten above the 1837 level.  I will post the rates of growth and percentages later today.

[rockpond]

I see on again off again data from people mining the church membership stats suggesting that the church has actually had a number of years of membership shrinkage lately... do you (or anyone else) know of any good resources for this kind of data/information?

 

I don't.  I think that someone keeps the data online somewhere if you can find it via google (I found it somewhere a while back).  Now, I keep a spreadsheet with the numbers that they announce in the annual statistical report plus some other calcs built into it.

 

Per the numbers provided by the church, we have not had any year-over-year decreases in total membership.  But, we have had a gradually declining growth rate over the past 4-5 decades.

 

The only problem with the membership data provided by the church is that, when you do the math, it shows that we have a mortality rate that is about half that of the civilized world.  I know that we have a great health code that we live by but it's unlikely that it cuts our mortality rate in half.  So, you have to assume that they are leaving names on the records long after people actually die (probably because they don't actually know when each and every member dies).

 

I also look at what I refer to as "real growth".  I define that as the increase in the number of Stakes/Districts and Wards/Branches.  The average growth rates for those church units has been hovering just below 1% over the past decade or so.  Meanwhile, our total membership growth rate has been hovering around 2% over the same timeframe.  This could suggest that we are losing the equivalent of half of the new members.  Or, it could mean that we are intentionally letting wards/stakes grow larger.  But, since we aren't building larger church buildings, I believe it's the former.

[Bikeemikey]

No.

I am working on a growth chart right now, but the last time there was any shrinking membership, was between 1838 and 1839. By 1841 they had gotten above the 1837 level. I will post the rates of growth and percentages later today.

I was under the impression that if one adjusted for actual realistic ages of death (not the 110 figure the church currently uses) there is a hidden bubble of dead but counted members?

Also there have been years where the baptismal converts and child of record baptisms were less than the growth reported and some years it was more than the growth reported.

[Bikeemikey]

I don't. I think that someone keeps the data online somewhere if you can find it via google (I found it somewhere a while back). Now, I keep a spreadsheet with the numbers that they announce in the annual statistical report plus some other calcs built into it.

Per the numbers provided by the church, we have not had any year-over-year decreases in total membership. But, we have had a gradually declining growth rate over the past 4-5 decades.

The only problem with the membership data provided by the church is that, when you do the math, it shows that we have a mortality rate that is about half that of the civilized world. I know that we have a great health code that we live by but it's unlikely that it cuts our mortality rate in half. So, you have to assume that they are leaving names on the records long after people actually die (probably because they don't actually know when each and every member dies).

I also look at what I refer to as "real growth". I define that as the increase in the number of Stakes/Districts and Wards/Branches. The average growth rates for those church units has been hovering just below 1% over the past decade or so. Meanwhile, our total membership growth rate has been hovering around 2% over the same timeframe. This could suggest that we are losing the equivalent of half of the new members. Or, it could mean that we are intentionally letting wards/stakes grow larger. But, since we aren't building larger church buildings, I believe it's the former.

Thanks for the info...

[Alan]

Personally , I don't think the administration of the church could handle the influx of even 5 million more new members in 6 years. There would have to be a massive change in " the way things are done" .

 

This is a very relavent point.

There would have to be major changes to cope with these numbers. Such a church could not be run by 15 people at the top in my opinion.

I could see the formation of "national" churches to cope with this.

[eddie]

I take it back, between 1856-57 the membership shrank  (around the time of Johnson's Army came in.)  Didn't reach the 1856 level again until 1861,

[eddie]

I was under the impression that if one adjusted for actual realistic ages of death (not the 110 figure the church currently uses) there is a hidden bubble of dead but counted members?

Also there have been years where the baptismal converts and child of record baptisms were less than the growth reported and some years it was more than the growth reported.

 

In the 1999-2000 Almanac it states that converts began to be the bigger portion of new members around 1960.

[Bikeemikey]

This is a very relavent point.

There would have to be major changes to cope with these numbers. Such a church could not be run by 15 people at the top in my opinion.

I could see the formation of "national" churches to cope with this.

The church is already not run by 15 people at the top.

We have a extensive paid administration and bureaucracy.

Also, through out the scriptures it is not the case that prophets were always the leader of a church. In many instances the prophets of old were counter-institutional forces, not the leaders of the churches.

Edited April 30, 2014 by Bikeemikey

[Alan]

The church is already not run by 15 people at the top.

We have a extensive paid administration and bureaucracy.

Also, through out the scriptures it is not the case that prophets were always the leader of a church. In many instances the prophets of old were counter-institutional forces, not the leaders of the churches.

 

This is true.

However, I wasn't really referring to the bureacracy.

[Bikeemikey]

This is true.

However, I wasn't really referring to the bureacracy.

Our church has something other than bureaucracy?

[eddie]

I see on again off again data from people mining the church membership stats suggesting that the church has actually had a number of years of membership shrinkage lately... do you (or anyone else) know of any good resources for this kind of data/information?

 

Well I have finished the data using almanacs that have numbers back to 1830.  There have been 4 years when the church numbers actually shrank.  1839, 1855, 1856, and 1857.   The largest percentage decrease was in 1857 when there was a 15% decrease in membership.

 

After 1850 the largest percentage increase was 15% in 1853.  In a more modern context the largest percentage growth occurred in 1961,  1962, and 1963 when there was a 7.2% increase each year.  The lowest percentage growth of the 20th and 21st centuries occurred in 1930 and 1937 with 0.9% growth rate.

 

Having said all of this yearly stats are difficult to gauge, so I also ran some numbers by decade.  This is the % increase each decade, and the total number of net numbers of new members.  (It isn't a convert baptism, age of 8, or other measurement.  It is a combination of deaths, new converts, and 8 year olds etc.)

 

1830's 98% 16,180

1840's 65% 31,295

1850's 9% 5,199

1860's 29% 27,350

1870's 30% 38,256

1880's 27% 49,516

1890's 31% 83,418

1900's 24% 93,514

1910's 22% 109,483

1920's 21% 137,665

1930's 17% 133,511

1940's 31% 216,007

1950's 31% 504,774

1960's 40% 1,114,276

1970's 33% 1,473,311

1980's 30% 2,668,622

1990's 28% 2,991,777

2000's 20% 2,755,993

 

From 2010 to 2013 there have been 896,585 new net members.    if the trend continues of the first four years of this decade continues until 2019 we will be at 17.7 million.

 

Having said all of this, by looking at growth from a decade long perspective, you can see that it fluctuates for various reasons.   I don't expect it to stay the same, there was a decrease in the number of missionaries from 2003-2011, and the 36,196 missionaries that were serving in 2002 was only surpassed in 2013 by the 48,892.

 

While I don't doubt the rationale and purpose behind raising the bar, I believe it was a bigger factor in the smaller number of converts in the first decade of this century.   I am glad more sisters are going and elders at 18, there will be dividends both temporally and spiritually for this.