pogi Posted September 7, 2021 Posted September 7, 2021 (edited) 1 hour ago, MustardSeed said: We are all weary. If I were to write a song about the last year and a half, I think that would be the title. God bless the hospital workers... Edited September 7, 2021 by pogi 3
Tacenda Posted September 7, 2021 Posted September 7, 2021 (edited) 12 minutes ago, bsjkki said: https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-021-00728-2 Think about what we know now that they did not know when this article was written. We now know the vaccines do not prevent transmission or infection. We have the highly contagious Delta right now and variants lining up behind it. Thanks, and thanks for your reply to my reply about herd immunity. It's a mystery for now, I'm thinking we may have this for awhile, and that just like the flu vaccine, it will vary on how effective it will be going forward, each year may vary... but the medical community sure pushed the flu vaccine for a reason, so I'm pretty sure it's a good thing. But too bad it's not like the polio vaccine and other vaccines that nearly eradicate in one fell swoop without having to get the vaccine yearly. Edited September 7, 2021 by Tacenda
bsjkki Posted September 7, 2021 Posted September 7, 2021 (edited) 1 hour ago, Chum said: Which part of the doc image you posted supports your assertion that vaccines themselves are incapable of leading to herd immunity? I thought it obvious. Here is another article. Once the vaccines were shown not to prevent transmission or infection, herd immunity was pretty much off the table. The variants will not stop either. This isn't like measles/polio/small pox. It's more like the flu and cold viruses. https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-08-13/the-world-may-never-reach-herd-immunity-against-covid-19 Get vaccinated because it still protects against hospitalization and death. Edited September 7, 2021 by bsjkki
Bernard Gui Posted September 7, 2021 Posted September 7, 2021 12 minutes ago, juliann said: That comment shouldn't have my name on it, I suspect Pogi said it. Thanx.
pogi Posted September 7, 2021 Posted September 7, 2021 26 minutes ago, bsjkki said: We now know the vaccines do not prevent transmission or infection. That is news to me. I am pretty sure it does prevent infection, and thus transmission, in a fairly large percentage of the population. https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/70/wr/mm7034e3.htm
rongo Posted September 7, 2021 Posted September 7, 2021 17 minutes ago, pogi said: Where her statement (which is often used by antivaxers) is misleading is that it doesn't take into account natural immunity. We absolutely can reach herd immunity through vaccination which will cover around 60% of us, and the other 40% will be protected after natural immunity is acquired after a much more mild infection (thanks to the vaccine). How does outright natural immunity stack up, compared to vaccination and a milder infection? I know the jury is still out on that ("more study is needed"), and I know that the preference of the medical community is no infections at all, but it seems to me in my experience that successfully recovering from Covid is superior to vaccination. Obviously, people who have health risk factors don't want the "brute force" approach, but my family and everyone we personally know who had and recovered from Covid appear to have solid immunity. We're past our first month of school without really any mitigation efforts, and it's not ripping through the community from what we can see. Granted, this is a community that has largely already had it (we were open for normal school from the get go last year), and the Queen Creek/San Tan Valley area was visibly much more "natural immunity" in its approach the whole time (100,000 - 150,000 in population). Aren't the "extreme lockdown/zero cases is the goal" countries (e.g., Australia, New Zealand) just postponing their Covid "waves" down the road (unless they stay locked down forever)? Wouldn't it be better to have a combination of vaccination and natural immunity, long term? It seems to me that it is better from an immunity standpoint to have the immune system react to the whole virus and viral proteins than just the small spike protein. That would seem to offer broader immunity, and hence the need for frequent booster shots.
bsjkki Posted September 7, 2021 Posted September 7, 2021 19 minutes ago, pogi said: She partly right when it comes to the Delta variant, because Delta is so highly infectious herd immunity will require around 80%-90%+ (if I remember right) immunity in the community before it is achieved. So, when a vaccine is only 60%-70% effective at preventing infection, then even if the entire population was vaccinated, there would not be enough immunity from vaccination alone to produce the effect of herd immunity. What it will do though is cripple transmission rates and reduce the burden on hospitals - it will reduce suffering, and it will significantly reduce death. So, even if it doesn't achieve herd immunity (in and of itself), it will cripple the virus to levels we can cope with it without it affecting our economy and healthcare system, school system, etc. With the pre-Delta variants, the mRNA vaccines absolutely could have achieved herd immunity because the virus was much less infectious and the vaccine was much more (90%+) effective against it. That was the hope initially. Delta challenged our hopes. Where her statement (which is often used by antivaxers) is misleading is that it doesn't take into account natural immunity. We absolutely can reach herd immunity through vaccination which will cover around 60% of us, and the other 40% will be protected after natural immunity is acquired after a much more mild infection (thanks to the vaccine). I think I have proved my statement through epidemiologists. I'm not knocking the vaccine but it is better to have realistic expectations of what we are dealing with. I am not anti-vaxx. My statement is not misleading. But, I did think it was time to have a nice debate out it. I don't think we know enough yet to know what will happen long term. Pogi--we already know vaccine effectiveness wanes with time and boosters will be needed (maybe). I've even heard we would be better off spreading our two dose covid vaccinations further apart to build a longer lasting immunity. I think about how much we have learned in a few months. There is a lot left to be learned about this virus and we don't know what it will do next. 2
pogi Posted September 7, 2021 Posted September 7, 2021 20 minutes ago, rongo said: How does outright natural immunity stack up, compared to vaccination and a milder infection? I know the jury is still out on that ("more study is needed"), and I know that the preference of the medical community is no infections at all, but it seems to me in my experience that successfully recovering from Covid is superior to vaccination. Obviously, people who have health risk factors don't want the "brute force" approach, but my family and everyone we personally know who had and recovered from Covid appear to have solid immunity. We're past our first month of school without really any mitigation efforts, and it's not ripping through the community from what we can see. Granted, this is a community that has largely already had it (we were open for normal school from the get go last year), and the Queen Creek/San Tan Valley area was visibly much more "natural immunity" in its approach the whole time (100,000 - 150,000 in population). Aren't the "extreme lockdown/zero cases is the goal" countries (e.g., Australia, New Zealand) just postponing their Covid "waves" down the road (unless they stay locked down forever)? Wouldn't it be better to have a combination of vaccination and natural immunity, long term? It seems to me that it is better from an immunity standpoint to have the immune system react to the whole virus and viral proteins than just the small spike protein. That would seem to offer broader immunity, and hence the need for frequent booster shots. Rongo, we know that vaccines save lives MUCH more effectively than natural infection. We know that vaccines reduce hospitalizations. We know that vaccines reduce severity of infection. We know that vaccines completely prevent infection in many. We know that they reduce transmission. I am glad that your family did well, So, just to clarify, you think it would be better to just let it rip loose instead of mitigate efforts through vaccination? Quote A total of 90% of current COVID-19 patients in both hospital systems are not vaccinated, including young people who doctors believe thought they were bullet proof, that age alone would protect them. Medical experts say that may have been true before, but new strains of COVID-19 have flipped the switch. "The delta variant is a different animal. This is attacking young, healthy people creating critical illness, you are at risk, I promise you," Smith said. Doctors say the vaccinated individuals that do get sick, the so-called breakthrough cases, have a much better chance of a good outcome. "There's about a one in a million chance that someone who is vaccinated would not leave the hospital," Dr. Margaret Crossman said. https://www.wesh.com/article/you-are-at-risk-i-promise-you-doctors-say-florida-hospitals-filling-with-young-unvaccinated-people/37211833# Quote "We're now seeing people in their 30s, 40s and 50s — young people who are really sick," says Dr. Vishnu Chundi, an infectious disease physician and chair of the Chicago Medical Society's COVID-19 task force. Nationally, adults under 50 now account for the most hospitalized COVID-19 patients in the country — about 35% of all hospital admissions. Those age 50 to 64 account for the second-highest number of hospitalizations, or about 31%. Meanwhile, hospitalizations among adults over 65 have fallen significantly. https://www.npr.org/sections/health-shots/2021/05/01/992148299/covid-doesnt-discriminate-by-age-serious-cases-on-the-rise-in-younger-adults Young, healthy people are being hospitalized (and some dying) at alarming rates. Over 50% of hospitalizations are under 50 years old. That is almost entirely unnecessary and avoidable. Yes, it seems that natural immunity is stronger than vaccination. That is no reason to not get vaccinated though. If the vaccine doesn't prevent infection entirely in you, it will at least reduce severity of disease, and you will end up with natural immunity anyway. 1
pogi Posted September 7, 2021 Posted September 7, 2021 30 minutes ago, bsjkki said: I think I have proved my statement through epidemiologists. I'm not knocking the vaccine but it is better to have realistic expectations of what we are dealing with. I am not anti-vaxx. My statement is not misleading. But, I did think it was time to have a nice debate out it. It absolutely can be misleading if not placed in context of what we know about natural infection vs breakthrough infection. I know that you are not an anti-vaxer, but I have heard this fact used by them to mislead. We need to contextualize it. What is there to debate about? 33 minutes ago, bsjkki said: I don't think we know enough yet to know what will happen long term. Pogi--we already know vaccine effectiveness wanes with time and boosters will be needed (maybe). I've even heard we would be better off spreading our two dose covid vaccinations further apart to build a longer lasting immunity. I think about how much we have learned in a few months. There is a lot left to be learned about this virus and we don't know what it will do next. I'm not sure what this has to do with your original comment. You are right, there is a lot we don't know. But there is a lot we do know. We know that vaccinations save lives, reduce hospital burden, reduce health care costs, help our economy and schools, etc. Boosters will likely be necessary. Boosters are normal with vaccines. Inconvenient? Yes. But much less inconvenient than what we are seeing happen with natural infection right now.
bsjkki Posted September 7, 2021 Posted September 7, 2021 1 minute ago, pogi said: It absolutely can be misleading if not placed in context of what we know about natural infection vs breakthrough infection. And my statement was about herd immunity. It was 100 percent factual. Everyone needs to have realistic expectations. From today: https://www.cnbc.com/2021/09/07/who-says-covid-is-here-to-stay-as-hopes-for-eradicating-the-virus-diminish.html?recirc=taboolainternal
bsjkki Posted September 7, 2021 Posted September 7, 2021 https://www.montereyherald.com/2021/09/07/breakthrough-when-the-fully-vaccinated-get-covid-19-anyway/
Chum Posted September 7, 2021 Posted September 7, 2021 12 minutes ago, bsjkki said: I thought it obvious. My asking was how I communicated that it wasn't obvious. 13 minutes ago, bsjkki said: Here is another article. Thanks for another article. However I asked for the text in your first article that supported your assertion. Would you please repost just that text? Thnx. 14 minutes ago, bsjkki said: vaccines were shown not to prevent transmission or infection This statement seems to land between confusing and falsehood but I'm not sure where. Vaccines function as they are supposed to. They do not do things that experts never said they would. I think our challenge here is you seem to be insinuating that any failure to reach herd protection is due to the [negative connotation] of vaccines. A less misleading analysis might note how unvaccinated people are a more direct cause of variants that hamper herd immunity.
Chum Posted September 7, 2021 Posted September 7, 2021 1 hour ago, pogi said: She partly right when it comes to the Delta variant, I do not believe so. She asserts that it is the vaccines themselves that are responsible. This seems preposterous.
bsjkki Posted September 7, 2021 Posted September 7, 2021 1 minute ago, Chum said: My asking was how I communicated that it wasn't obvious. Well, there wasn't a direct quote of my quote since it wasn't a quote. The whole article explains why herd immunity will be difficult and also said the vaccine doesn't prevent transmission and we are all aware of breakthrough infections. Transmission plus infection, plus all the other reasons the article listed will make herd immunity extremely difficult to attain. So, since to you it was not obvious, I have then added to the library of articles and quotes from the WHO and other epidemiologists that explain that herd immunity will be elusive and we should all prepare for that. This doesn't mean people should not get vaccinated. People should get vaccinated. Preventing death and hospitalization is a very good thing and we know the vaccines help for that.
bsjkki Posted September 7, 2021 Posted September 7, 2021 3 minutes ago, Chum said: I do not believe so. She asserts that it is the vaccines themselves that are responsible. This seems preposterous. CFR
Chum Posted September 7, 2021 Posted September 7, 2021 16 minutes ago, pogi said: It absolutely can be misleading if not placed in context of what we know about natural infection vs breakthrough infection. I know that you are not an anti-vaxer, but I have heard this fact used by them to mislead. We need to contextualize it. Dear @bsjkki, this is super important. Sincerely, Chum.
bsjkki Posted September 7, 2021 Posted September 7, 2021 8 minutes ago, Chum said: This statement seems to land between confusing and falsehood but I'm not sure where. I don't understand how. It is accurate. It might decrease infections but California alone has over 112,000 breakthrough infections, 2944 hospitalizations and 306 deaths among the fully vaccinated.
Chum Posted September 7, 2021 Posted September 7, 2021 2 minutes ago, bsjkki said: Well, there wasn't a direct quote of my quote since it wasn't a quote. I don't know what this means. You made an assertion that vaccines themselves were responsible for a failure to reach herd immunity and not unvaccinated people. You posted an article that didn't support that at all. I asked for the specific text in that article that supported your assertion. You keep giving me everything but.
Chum Posted September 7, 2021 Posted September 7, 2021 1 minute ago, bsjkki said: I don't understand how. It is accurate It seems to carry an untrue inference that vaccines aren't effective.
bsjkki Posted September 7, 2021 Posted September 7, 2021 3 minutes ago, Chum said: Dear @bsjkki, this is super important. Sincerely, Chum. I still didn't ever say what you said I said. Prove it. Many of you seem to think anything said is an attack on vaccines. I was not attacking vaccines but just like the WHO and noted epidemiologists, I was contextualizing what they can and what they will not do. Raalistic expectations are important.
bsjkki Posted September 7, 2021 Posted September 7, 2021 54 minutes ago, pogi said: That is news to me. I am pretty sure it does prevent infection, and thus transmission, in a fairly large percentage of the population. https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/70/wr/mm7034e3.htm Dead link.
Chum Posted September 7, 2021 Posted September 7, 2021 Just now, bsjkki said: I was contextualizing what they can ... do. Where did you do this?
bsjkki Posted September 7, 2021 Posted September 7, 2021 1 minute ago, Chum said: It seems to carry an untrue inference that vaccines aren't effective. These vaccines will not create herd immunity. Epidemiologists agree with me. The WHO agrees with me. They are very effective in preventing hospitalization and death.
bsjkki Posted September 7, 2021 Posted September 7, 2021 1 minute ago, Chum said: Where did you do this? By making a blanket statement of what they 'will not do.' It was certainly a conversation starter. Think about what people are learning as they read through this. Please get vaccinated. I don't want people to suffer needlessly.
Chum Posted September 7, 2021 Posted September 7, 2021 3 minutes ago, bsjkki said: These vaccines will not create herd immunity. You've contextualized some by prepending "These". That's a bit of progress. Awesome!
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