Ipod Touch Posted December 28, 2020 Posted December 28, 2020 As a person that is at higher-risk of complications with Covid, I've been very careful during the pandemic. Wearing masks, limiting travel, etc. I can't believe that it has been 9+ months since I've taken my spouse out to dinner or to go see a movie. I think what has surprised me most during this time is how discussion of pandemic *policy* has become so divided and toxic. How is remote learning going to impact our young children in the long-term? How will math and reading abilities be impacted? This is a critical time for young people and disrupting their education for even just one school year could have devastating long-term consequences. I think it is OK to talk about this and to think about a sustainable policy. To put this very bluntly, we've locked our kids away this year to -- broadly speaking -- save older and high-risk people from dying. Have we struck the right balance here? Maybe this was the right policy in March and maybe it is time to reexamine so that we don't strip our kids of another year in their crucial development. As I say, I personally wear a mask and don't think it is a big deal to do so. If nothing else, it makes others feel better. I understand that it does significantly reduce the possibility of spreading the virus to others. Having said that, I am reading about these huge upticks in hospitalizations in California and other places which imposed very strict mask mandates. At the same time, some states with less rigid mandates are not seeing the same increase in hospitalizations. Of course, the reverse is true as well. Some areas without mask mandates are surging now. And some places (like where I live) where we have strict mandates are doing fine. Given this, I think it is perfectly acceptable to ask if masks really are effective because it seems that it doesn't really matter if there are mandates are not. Virus is gonna virus. Of course I'm no expert. So there is a chance I've misunderstood the data or don't grasp some key elements of what is happening. That's ultimately why I play it safe and plan to just ride this out if I can. 2
Calm Posted December 28, 2020 Author Posted December 28, 2020 Out of 10 million people, only 300 asymptomatic cases when that is, what, 30%? How many actual cases were found? 1000? If more, then percentage of asymptomatic is much lower and therefore perhaps something else is going on?
Calm Posted December 28, 2020 Author Posted December 28, 2020 (edited) 1 hour ago, smac97 said: Not sure what to make of this: "The lockdown lobby?" Who is lobbying for lockdowns? Thanks, -Smac Your link took me to another page that made claims of asymptomatic spread. Are you sure that link is correct? Plus it is not just asymptomatic that is considered the problem but also presymptomatic, which may be infectious for several days. Then there are those that are symptomatic and go out anyway, whether mild or severe like the man who died on the UAL flight, who then spread it to those who tried to save his life (and failed). Edited December 28, 2020 by Calm
pogi Posted December 28, 2020 Posted December 28, 2020 (edited) 22 hours ago, rongo said: We're being asked to believe that influenza magically is drastically down, but it's madness to suggest that there might be mislabeling going on? No magic! Perfectly reasonable. It was actually predicted that this flu season would see reduced numbers due to masking and distancing. The flu is not as infectious as COVID, so these measures will help with the flu even more than Covid. But then we’d have to believe that these measures actually are having a positive effect, or that Covid really is as bad as the experts say. Perhaps that is “psychologically” too much to accept for some. “Public health measures like wearing a mask and avoiding close contact with others could help prevent the forthcoming influenza season from complicating the nation's response to the coronavirus pandemic, White House health advisor Dr. Anthony Fauci said Thursday.” https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.cnbc.com/amp/2020/10/01/fauci-says-public-health-measures-to-curb-coronavirus-spread-could-dampen-flu-season.html Edited December 28, 2020 by pogi 2
Calm Posted December 28, 2020 Author Posted December 28, 2020 (edited) Quote Data from clinical laboratories in the United States indicated a 61% decrease in the number of specimens submitted (from a median of 49,696 per week during September 29, 2019–February 29, 2020, to 19,537 during March 1–May 16, 2020) and a 98% decrease in influenza activity as measured by percentage of submitted specimens testing positive (from a median of 19.34% to 0.33%). https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/69/wr/mm6937a6.htm Quote Seasonal flu cases in the northern hemisphere usually peak in February and tail off by the end of May. This year, unusually, lab-confirmed cases of influenza dropped precipitously in early April, a few weeks after the coronavirus pandemic was declared on 11 March (see ‘Flu season cut short by COVID-19 measures’). The data comes from tests of more than 150,000 samples from national influenza laboratories in 71 countries that report data to FluNet, a global surveillance system. https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-020-01538-8 Unless labs are lying and are not confirming actual cases (and why would they do that?), why would you (Rongo) think that influenza cases and therefore deaths would be still as prevalent as usual? Looking at the graph in the second link, influenza dropped even when COVID was not as widespread, so it appears unlikely they just labeled flu cases as COVID. Edited December 28, 2020 by Calm 1
Calm Posted December 28, 2020 Author Posted December 28, 2020 (edited) From Nature link: Quote In Hong Kong, the 2019–20 influenza season was 63% shorter than those of the previous five years, and the number of deaths from lab-confirmed flu was 62% lower1. A similar decline was seen during the 2003 epidemic of the related coronavirus that causes SARS (severe acute respiratory syndrome). Other infectious diseases might also have been affected this year, says study co-author, infectious-disease researcher Pak-leung Ho at the University of Hong Kong. In Hong Kong, compared with previous years, the number of chickenpox cases dropped by about half to three-quarters. In April, cases of measles and rubella were their lowest, globally, since at least 2016, according to provisional data available so far — only 36 cases of rubella were reported in April worldwide. Ho notes that typically these are diseases that affect children. “Closure of schools may have had the biggest impact,” he says This was during the time period very few cases of COVID (105 with 2 deaths, usually flu peaks at over 2000 new cases per week in while peaking at 1000 and dropping to very low 6 weeks or more early) were reported in Hong Kong, so mislabeling as COVID could not have been a factor. https://www.ft.com/content/ad7ae6b4-5eab-11ea-b0ab-339c2307bcd4 Edited December 28, 2020 by Calm
rongo Posted December 28, 2020 Posted December 28, 2020 (edited) 1 hour ago, pogi said: No magic! Perfectly reasonable. It was actually predicted that this flu season would see reduced numbers due to masking and distancing. The flu is not as infectious as COVID, so these measures will help with the flu even more than Covid. But then we’d have to believe that these measures actually are having a positive effect, or that Covid really is as bad as the experts say. Perhaps that is “psychologically” too much to accept for some. “Public health measures like wearing a mask and avoiding close contact with others could help prevent the forthcoming influenza season from complicating the nation's response to the coronavirus pandemic, White House health advisor Dr. Anthony Fauci said Thursday.” https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.cnbc.com/amp/2020/10/01/fauci-says-public-health-measures-to-curb-coronavirus-spread-could-dampen-flu-season.html That's circular, and contradictory. Masks and social distancing are the reason why influenza has plummeted this year. Why is Covid surging? Because people won't wear masks and socially distance. In reality, and as the CDC itself has admitted, they are purposely not counting influenza during Covid. https://www.cdc.gov/flu/weekly/overview.htm “Due to the ongoing COvID-19 pandemic, this system will suspend data collection for the 2020-2021 influenza season.” The CDC's reports on monthly influenza mortality no longer report them, and influenza deaths historically were conflated with pneumonia deaths (the Venn diagram of both had a lot of overlap). Worldwide, influenza is down 98% compared to 2019. C'mon, pogi! Flu cases and flu deaths are largely being subsumed by Covid cases and Covid deaths. Not to say that Covid isn't a thing, but a 98% drop in worldwide flu isn't due to masks and distancing. Edited December 28, 2020 by rongo
Calm Posted December 28, 2020 Author Posted December 28, 2020 3 minutes ago, rongo said: C'mon, pogi! Flu cases and flu deaths are largely being subsumed by Covid cases and Covid deaths. Not to say that Covid isn't a thing, but a 98% drop in worldwide flu isn't due to masks and distancing. So when it dropped so dramatically in Hong Kong, what was the cause?
Calm Posted December 28, 2020 Author Posted December 28, 2020 (edited) On 12/26/2020 at 10:52 AM, Harry T. Clark said: I think we need to rethink lock-downs: https://thefreethoughtproject.com/covid-19-lockdowns-suicides-overdoses/ What do you think of masks and social distancing? While overdoses are dramatically higher this year than the previous two, 2017-18 was at a low point and there was an increase of almost 20% in 2018-19 and 2019-2029 was already higher before Covid hit. So it might be better to take a longer view when comparing. https://www.tfah.org/article/drug-death-rates-continue-rise-during-pandemic/ Undoubtedly overdoses have increased due to the pandemic for a variety of reasons. I have seen some claims that there were more deaths due to increase suicides than Covid, but the data doesn’t seem to agree from what I have seen at least nationwide. Increased overdose deaths were approximately 13,000 up till May 2020 for the past year. In April Covid related deaths more or less matched that each week. https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/COVID19/index.htm While lockdowns may not be the best solution, without significant compliance to masks and social distancing, it appears likely that Covid would have continued to outpace overdose deaths as it did in April. Edited December 28, 2020 by Calm 1
pogi Posted December 28, 2020 Posted December 28, 2020 (edited) 1 hour ago, rongo said: That's circular, and contradictory. Masks and social distancing are the reason why influenza has plummeted this year. Why is Covid surging? Because people won't wear masks and socially distance. In reality, and as the CDC itself has admitted, they are purposely not counting influenza during Covid. https://www.cdc.gov/flu/weekly/overview.htm “Due to the ongoing COvID-19 pandemic, this system will suspend data collection for the 2020-2021 influenza season.” The CDC's reports on monthly influenza mortality no longer report them, and influenza deaths historically were conflated with pneumonia deaths (the Venn diagram of both had a lot of overlap). Worldwide, influenza is down 98% compared to 2019. C'mon, pogi! Flu cases and flu deaths are largely being subsumed by Covid cases and Covid deaths. Not to say that Covid isn't a thing, but a 98% drop in worldwide flu isn't due to masks and distancing. Nothing circular or contradictory about it. As I have explained a million times, the measures being taken (as imperfect as they are) have a relative benefit. They will reduce overall numbers, they wont prevent surges. If they will reduce numbers for Covid, which they undoubtedly are and as studies have shown, they will also have a relative - and likely more profound - effect on flu because it is extremely less infectious. Not to mention the flu vaccine campaign on steroids this year! Flu vaccine was being pushed stronger that any year I can remember. Not to mention that the severity of flu dramatically fluctuates up and down from year to year. Could this be a relatively mild year for flu in general? On top of that we have the masking and distancing measures for the entire population - on top of that we have on-line schooling, etc. etc. - on top of that we had a major flu vaccine campaign - on top of that we have heightened measures being taken at facilities which are high risk for Covid AND flu like long-term care centers and assisted living facilities - on top of that we have high risk people in the general public taking extra precautions to protect themselves - on top of that, apparently the CDC isn't even counting flu data for this season (HELLO!!!). But of course, none of this can explain the relative decrease in numbers... The CDC may not be collecting flu data, but that DOESN'T mean that doctors and clinics are not testing for flu! Why in the world would someone be reported as dying from Covid when they tested negative for Covid and positive for flu? Are some deaths being misattributed to Covid? Absolutely! Deaths are misattributed every flu season too! The vast majority of deaths from flu or Covid, however, will have been tested before diagnosis. The numbers will not significantly be slanted. Just curious though. Do you truly not believe that any of the measures I listed above will have a significant impact on flu? Is it not possible that it is a mild flu season in general? If flu deaths are being misattributed to Covid, at what rate would you guess? Please answer the question. Edited December 28, 2020 by pogi 2
pogi Posted December 28, 2020 Posted December 28, 2020 (edited) On 12/26/2020 at 8:22 PM, Danzo said: Aren't you in favor of having more people understand the process? That's why I commented about there being no "definition of what it means to die" from any disease. Your comment made it sound like Covid cases are much more difficult to classify because there is no definition for Covid deaths, so the ambiguous nature of it may cause doctors and examiners to falsely attribute other deaths to Covid. I was just clarifying that it is just as straightforward as classifying death for any other disease. It is also important to note (if people truly want to understand the process) that simply because some jurisdictions report all who test positive for Covid at the time of death as a Covid death, doesn't mean these numbers won't work themselves out in time. The reason they do this is because decision makers need quick data for a timely response, while death certificates can take up to 6 months or more to process. This is why flu numbers are not solidified until at least a year after the flu season has ended. It is no different with Covid. On 12/26/2020 at 8:22 PM, Danzo said: As my physician friend explained to me, at least in his jurisdiction, when the medical examiner makes the call it is because the person who died wasn't under the care of a physician at the time. They have less information to go on than a physician who was treating the patient at the time. This (according to him) is why the medical examiners office makes decisions that are less accurate than a physicians. The doctors have more and better information on the status of the patient on the days and hours before death. This is true, it is much more difficult for coroners and medical examiners, which makes them so much better at what they do than doctors. They do a thorough investigation into the medical records of the person and interview family members/friends as to the condition around time of death. Sometimes they will do an autopsy or take other tests. I have no doubt that there may be some lazy (this is true in any profession) coroners who don't do a thorough investigation and misattribute deaths to Covid out there. But I don't think it is right to suggest that the entire profession is corrupt or lazy, or not properly doing their jobs (which you weren't necessarily doing, but it may lead some to assume as much) because of your doctors friend's experience. Edited December 28, 2020 by pogi 2
rongo Posted December 28, 2020 Posted December 28, 2020 1 hour ago, Calm said: So when it dropped so dramatically in Hong Kong, what was the cause? Unreliable and manipulated numbers out of China. Do you take China's numbers at face value?
pogi Posted December 28, 2020 Posted December 28, 2020 On 12/26/2020 at 1:14 PM, rodheadlee said: Pogi did you get the vaccine yet? I haven't. I actually just received an email today stating that it is available for all employees who work in the infectious disease bureau (which I am), but I am not personally working with Covid patients directly (only on the phone), so I am going to pass and let other's who are at greater risk in the infectious disease bureau who are doing Covid tests etc. take the vaccine first. I will probably wait to get it with the rest of the general public to let high risk populations get it first. I am also hesitant to receive the Pfizer vaccine as I have a history of anaphylaxis. I will probably wait for the Moderna vaccine as it seems to be safer for allergic reactions and is more effective to boot. 4
Calm Posted December 28, 2020 Author Posted December 28, 2020 (edited) 43 minutes ago, rongo said: Unreliable and manipulated numbers out of China. Do you take China's numbers at face value? But that doesn’t make sense. Why would they half their influenza numbers and shorten the flu season by 6 weeks if trying to hide COVID? Wouldn’t it make more sense for them to hide COVID in flu? So does New Zealand manipulate numbers as well? https://www.rnz.co.nz/national/programmes/sunday/audio/2018767843/near-extinction-of-influenza-in-nz-as-numbers-drop-due-to-lockdown Massive drop in flu cases with no corresponding increase in Covid cases. So how can any mislabeling be going on? Edited December 28, 2020 by Calm 1
Calm Posted December 28, 2020 Author Posted December 28, 2020 Australia....compare last year’s with this year, dramatic decrease of flu during May and June when there was not a corresponding rise in COVID. https://www.newscientist.com/article/2242113-australia-sees-huge-decrease-in-flu-cases-due-to-coronavirus-measures/
rongo Posted December 28, 2020 Posted December 28, 2020 1 hour ago, pogi said: The CDC may not be collecting flu data, . . . Just curious though. Do you truly not believe that any of the measures I listed above will have a significant impact on flu? Is it not possible that it is a mild flu season in general? If flu deaths are being misattributed to Covid, at what rate would you guess? Please answer the question. 1) Why isn't the CDC collecting flu data? Why not continue to collect and publish that, as well as the Covid data? What is it about "due to the ongoing pandemic" that makes the CDC want to "suspend collection of influenza data" if the line of demarcation is clear-cut? 2) Yes, I believe that masking and not going anywhere will affect flu cases. Yes, it is possible that it is a mild flu season, but how would we know? The CDC is purposely deciding not to collect or report flu numbers for some reason. Anecdotally, as an in-person teacher the entire first semester, with no shutdowns, it appears to be at least an average flu season, based on absences for illness, which were noticeably higher in October and more so in November/December. Like in past years. I have nothing on which to base raw national numbers on, but I'm in good company. Neither does the CDC (by choice).
pogi Posted December 28, 2020 Posted December 28, 2020 10 minutes ago, rongo said: 1) Why isn't the CDC collecting flu data? Probably a conspiracy. 10 minutes ago, rongo said: Anecdotally, as an in-person teacher the entire first semester, with no shutdowns, it appears to be at least an average flu season, based on absences for illness, which were noticeably higher in October and more so in November/December. Like in past years. You don't actually have any flu data to base this on. In case you haven't noticed, Covid has spiked dramatically from October through December. This is based on actual confirmed Covid test numbers, which you can't blame on misattributed flu deaths. If absentees for illness from October through November is average to previous years, this to me, suggests that flu cases are dramatically reduced once you account for the Covid spike.
rongo Posted December 28, 2020 Posted December 28, 2020 1 minute ago, pogi said: Probably a conspiracy. You don't actually have any flu data to base this on. In case you haven't noticed, Covid has spiked dramatically from October through December. This is based on actual confirmed Covid test numbers, which you can't blame on misattributed flu deaths. If absentees for illness from October through November is average to previous years, this to me, suggests that flu cases are dramatically reduced once you account for the Covid spike. Seriously. Why do you think the CDC decided not to collect and publish influenza data during Covid? How can we say that we can or can't attribute/misattribute flu deaths if we aren't even being told which is what?
pogi Posted December 28, 2020 Posted December 28, 2020 (edited) 32 minutes ago, rongo said: 1) Why isn't the CDC collecting flu data? 26 minutes ago, pogi said: Probably a conspiracy. Actually, I was right. It is a conspiracy...of the right wing media! https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/factcheck/2020/04/30/fact-check-cdc-still-tracking-flu-deaths-2019-20-typical/3044888001/ https://www.cdc.gov/flu/weekly/index.htm Edited December 28, 2020 by pogi 1
pogi Posted December 28, 2020 Posted December 28, 2020 (edited) 2 hours ago, rongo said: https://www.cdc.gov/flu/weekly/overview.htm “Due to the ongoing COvID-19 pandemic, this system will suspend data collection for the 2020-2021 influenza season.” As far as I can tell, this "tool" is specifically in reference to the following link and not in reference to tracking flu numbers/deaths overall: https://gis.cdc.gov/grasp/fluview/FluView8.html But of course, you would have known that if you actually read the link that you posted. Quote Additional P&I and PIC mortality data for current and past seasons and by geographic level (national, HHS region, and state) are available on FluView Interactive. Data displayed on the regional and state-level are aggregated by the state of residence of the decedent. Edited December 28, 2020 by pogi 1
pogi Posted December 28, 2020 Posted December 28, 2020 (edited) 3 hours ago, rongo said: Seriously. Why do you think the CDC decided not to collect and publish influenza data during Covid? What is your source, seriously? Facebook? Candace Owen’s? It certainly isn’t all the news outlets and CDC that you claimed to “like” before. Heaven knows you don’t subscribe to the Washington post! “(I like to use New York Times, Washington Post, CDC, Journal of the American Medical Association, etc. myself, so that people don't cry "fake news")“ I call bologna. You just posted “fake news” about the flu being spewed by Candace Owens and probably going viral on twitter and facebook. You even had me going for a second based on your claimed sources and your CDC link (that's what I get, I suppose, for trusting that people actually read their links in context and are not just cherry picking out of context). But something sounded terribly fishy... Edited December 28, 2020 by pogi
Harry T. Clark Posted December 28, 2020 Posted December 28, 2020 3 hours ago, Calm said: What do you think of masks and social distancing? While overdoses are dramatically higher this year than the previous two, 2017-18 was at a low point and there was an increase of almost 20% in 2018-19 and 2019-2029 was already higher before Covid hit. So it might be better to take a longer view when comparing. https://www.tfah.org/article/drug-death-rates-continue-rise-during-pandemic/ Undoubtedly overdoses have increased due to the pandemic for a variety of reasons. I have seen some claims that there were more deaths due to increase suicides than Covid, but the data doesn’t seem to agree from what I have seen at least nationwide. Increased overdose deaths were approximately 13,000 up till May 2020 for the past year. In April Covid related deaths more or less matched that each week. https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/COVID19/index.htm While lockdowns may not be the best solution, without significant compliance to masks and social distancing, it appears likely that Covid would have continued to outpace overdose deaths as it did in April. You don't know that. We have a surge despite mask/lockdown mandates. Masks only delay the spread and it is unclear how much of a delay there is when viruses can easily flow through masks. Lockdowns cannot eliminate the spread either as people still go to the favored stores to get their groceries, gasoline, basics and the like under lockdown conditions, exposing themselves to others in the crowded national chains that are allowed to remain open. The spread is inevitable. But, estimates are that the ultra rich gained $1 Trillion via the lockdown strategy that favored their companies. Amazon is profiting heavily and so is google. Small business, not so much. I get it that governments and leaders need to appear like they are doing something but maybe it is time to rethink what has been done given the devastation to the economy. Maybe you haven't felt it because you have a steady income?
Harry T. Clark Posted December 28, 2020 Posted December 28, 2020 10 minutes ago, pogi said: What is your source, seriously? Facebook? Candace Owen’s? It certainly isn’t all the news outlets and CDC that you referenced before. Heaven knows you don’t subscribe to the Washington post! This is what the CDC says about the flu - lower than usual. https://www.cdc.gov/flu/weekly/index.htm They say flu like illness is "probably" related to covid-19 here: https://www.cdc.gov/flu/season/index.html Is it possible that the CDC is conflating the two?
pogi Posted December 28, 2020 Posted December 28, 2020 (edited) 7 minutes ago, Harry T. Clark said: This is what the CDC says about the flu - lower than usual. https://www.cdc.gov/flu/weekly/index.htm They say flu like illness is "probably" related to covid-19 here: https://www.cdc.gov/flu/season/index.html Is it possible that the CDC is conflating the two? This is a diversion from my question. What is the source for the CDC not tracking the flu? Flu like illness is a separate indicator from positive flu or Covid, etc. most diseases are a “flu like illness”, that is what they call it when someone shows up with flu like (which are also Covid like) symptoms but they don’t have a diagnosis yet. Flu like illness numbers will always be higher than actual flu cases for that reason. Edited December 28, 2020 by pogi 2
Calm Posted December 28, 2020 Author Posted December 28, 2020 6 minutes ago, Harry T. Clark said: This is what the CDC says about the flu - lower than usual. https://www.cdc.gov/flu/weekly/index.htm They say flu like illness is "probably" related to covid-19 here: https://www.cdc.gov/flu/season/index.html Is it possible that the CDC is conflating the two? What about in countries that have both low rates of flu and very few Covid cases? How could they be conflated? Maybe you will address what rongo seems to be ignoring.
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