21 Reasons Why it Doesn't Matter if the Church is True-

[Ouagadougou]

2 hours ago, Calm said:

I agree that it is complicated, there are probably an infinite number of contributing factors.

That completely ignores my question though.

The claim was 26-32 teen gay suicides (number depends on report, perfectly happy to go for the lower number).  The reality was 10 teen suicides without differentiation for the 2% of the population that is likely homosexual and that other studies generally show a suicide rate of 4 times as much as the general American population.  Even with a four times death rate, one is at best (meaning at worst) approaching 10% of the suicides or 1 suicide where 26 were claimed.

will you make a definite statement rejecting her claim?

Their assumption is that there was one underlying cause for these suicides, right?  No, I do not agree with that. 

[Calm]

And what about the number claimed?  Do you still believe there were 26 suicides of gay teens, whatever the cause or even just 26 suicides of teens?

[Calm]

From the summary provided in Reiss' blog:

" Youth in the 15-19 age group who live in states with heavy Mormon populations are at higher risk for suicide. As Knoll put it, “These are objectively small numbers, but it means that (again, controlling for other factors) youth suicides are twice as high in states with the highest levels of Mormon residents compared to states with the lowest levels of Mormon residents.”

This association did not exist in any statistically significant way in 2009. Take a look at the second of the charts in Knoll’s post, which shows the greater frequency of teen suicide in 2014 versus 2009 in Mormon-heavy states such as Utah, Idaho, Wyoming, Nevada, and Alaska. In those states, teen suicide is increasing at higher rates than it is in many (not all) other states; in Utah the rate has actually doubled since 2009.

It is impossible to tell from this data whether there is a link to LGBT teens. The Center for Disease Control, which tracks suicides and other causes of death, does not include sexual orientation as a factor in its records. We simply don’t know whether there is an LGBT connection, though the indirect and anecdotal evidence recounted here certainly suggests it.

We don’t know the religion of the teens committing suicide.This study only shows definitively that all youth who live in areas with higher Mormon populations are at a greater risk for suicide, not that it’s Mormon teens in those states who are killing themselves. Knoll explains it is “impossible to definitely know from this data” whether a) a higher concentration of Mormons in a community drives more Mormon youth suicides; b) that same higher concentration actually causes more non-Mormon kids to commit suicide; or c) some combination of A and B.

This finding does not have anything to do with the LDS Church’s LGBT policy change in November 2015. Remember that this study only tracks suicide rates through 2014, which is the last year for which national stats are available. Knoll says that further research would need to be done to investigate any possible link there."

If I understand correctly, Knoll did his analysis by state and not county.  Looking at Colorado and Utah rates by county, less dense in Mormon areas made be higher in suicide rates (eyeballed it, feel free to doublecheck) thus it may be that the problem could be something else to do with the state and being in LDS dense areas has a protective effect.

The percentage of LDS in the entire US is less than the gay population (if one counts active LDS and expands it to the full LGBTQ community, it is probably much less half).  

Looking at one of his graphs he has plotted it by taking averages of the states by decreasing LDS density...by eyeballing has the individual states way off, it is only by combining them and ignoring actual values it looks like a decrease from what I can tell.  For example, at low density you have Louisana five or six times as high as his plot line.  There is so much variation I have my doubts it shows anything significant.  Will go check with my inhouse stat expert.

[Calm]

If you check out this Mormon density map, you can see that they clump together in the intermountain west.  There may be something affecting increased rates (such as altitude) that has nothing to do with the Mormon culture:

http://www.slate.com/articles/life/map_of_the_week/2012/02/mormon_population_in_the_u_s_an_interactive_map.html

Rather than comparing Mormon high density to low density, it would have been much better to measure LDS rates compared to nonLDS rates in the same area while controlling for other demographics as well.  

[Calm]

So my stat go to guy with the social psych doctorate confirmed there was too much variation in the graph showing the five year suicide rate change by state.  Combining high positive states with high negative states to yield a lower rate of change is in his opinion "crap stats".

Both of us will probably look closer tomorrow, but that really jumped out at me as something that would have been trashed by my stat and research teacher.

I would love to see canard's input on this analysis by Knoll.

Edited November 14, 2016 by Calm

[Tacenda]

44 minutes ago, Calm said:

So my stat go to guy with the social psych doctorate confirmed there was too much variation in the graph showing the five year suicide rate change by state.  Combining high positive states with high negative states to yield a lower rate of change is in his opinion "crap stats".

Both of us will probably look closer tomorrow, but that really jumped out at me as something that would have been trashed by my stat and research teacher.

I would love to see canard's input on this analysis by Knoll.

Me too!

[ksfisher]

9 hours ago, Ouagadougou said:

These are Utah State Gov sites that clearly illustrate that youth suicides is a problem in Utah. 

Aren't youth suicided a problem everywhere?   I would think that any number, no matter how small, is too many.

Edited November 14, 2016 by ksfisher

[Ouagadougou]

2 hours ago, Calm said:

And what about the number claimed?  Do you still believe there were 26 suicides of gay teens, whatever the cause or even just 26 suicides of teens?

I wouldn't be able to say because there are conflicting numbers with regard to some of the stats.  The website below shows that,

"Suicide is the leading cause of death among Utah’s youths, and the rates are climbing. The rate of suicide among Utah youths ages 10-17 has tripled since 2007, according to figures out this month from the Utah State Health Department."

http://www.deseretnews.com/article/865659189/How-Im-addressing-Utahs-suicide-rate-in-my-own-home.html?pg=all

"UTAH -- Disturbing new data from the Department of Health indicates the leading cause of death among Utah children ages 10-17 is suicide."

http://fox13now.com/2016/07/10/suicide-now-leading-cause-of-death-for-utahns-ages-10-17/

I don't know how many of those suicides are gay or identify as gay.  

http://www.worldlifeexpectancy.com/utah-cause-of-death-by-age-and-gender

[The Nehor]

3 minutes ago, ksfisher said:

Aren't youth suicided a problem everywhere?   I would think that any number, no matter how small, is too many.

Yes, but unless you have a workable plan to stop it all together we just do the best we can keeping it down.

[Scott Lloyd]

4 hours ago, Calm said:

"2015 Prevention Needs Assessment data indicate that Salt Lake County and Tooele County Health District students had hsignificantly higher rates of psychological distress, TriCounty Health District students had significantly higher rates of making a suicide plan, and Toeele and TriCounty Health District students had significantly higher rates of attempting suicide compared to the state."

https://ibis.health.utah.gov/indicator/important_facts/SuicDth.html

If I understand the findings reported here, it would appear that the Utah counties considered most at risk are also those with a lower percentage of LDS:

http://www.sltrib.com/news/1842825-155/mormon-populace-picks-up-the-pace

I don't know what "tri-county" means, but Salt Lake County is the most urban county in the state. Tooele County is its neighbor to the west. My hunch is that suicide rates tend to be hihger in more urban areas.

 

Edited November 14, 2016 by Scott Lloyd

[Scott Lloyd]

16 minutes ago, Ouagadougou said:

I wouldn't be able to say because there are conflicting numbers with regard to some of the stats.  The website below shows that,

"Suicide is the leading cause of death among Utah’s youths, and the rates are climbing. The rate of suicide among Utah youths ages 10-17 has tripled since 2007, according to figures out this month from the Utah State Health Department."

http://www.deseretnews.com/article/865659189/How-Im-addressing-Utahs-suicide-rate-in-my-own-home.html?pg=all

"UTAH -- Disturbing new data from the Department of Health indicates the leading cause of death among Utah children ages 10-17 is suicide."

http://fox13now.com/2016/07/10/suicide-now-leading-cause-of-death-for-utahns-ages-10-17/

I don't know how many of those suicides are gay or identify as gay.  

http://www.worldlifeexpectancy.com/utah-cause-of-death-by-age-and-gender

What you seem to be missing (or ignoring) is that the number of teen suicides that Mama Dragons said were LBGTQ is higher than the total number of teen suicides for that period reported by the State Department of Health. Their numbers make no sense at all. Can't you at least admit that much?

Edited November 14, 2016 by Scott Lloyd

[Tacenda]

Has this been posted? http://www.sltrib.com/news/4075258-155/story.html

[Calm]

13 minutes ago, Ouagadougou said:

I wouldn't be able to say because there are conflicting numbers with regard to some of the stats.  The website below shows that,

There are no conflicting numbers with the government stats of how many suicides occurred during that time period.  It was only one number for suicides and another for total deaths ever given out.  This has nothing to do with suicide rates or changes or estimates.  They counted how many deaths of teens occurred during that time period and how many of those were listed as suicide.

Wendy Montgomery claimed there were 26 deaths of Utah LGBT teens by suicide during that time period when the actual number  the government stated was 25 total for teens, including accidents, illness, homicide, and suicide.  Suicides were 10 iirc (11 if I have mixed them up with accidents) with two undetermined, so at most 13 possible suicides among all teens, not just LGBT teens.

So tell me how there are any conflicting numbers that can change 26 to 13 if one assumes that every last suicide was LGBT or 1 or 2 suicides if one makes an estimate based on the rate of suicide of LGBT vs. general population and the population density of LGBT?

The math isn't that hard to understand.  26 LGBT suicides claimed by Montgomery, 25 actual deaths total for teens.  How can more LGBT teens commit suicide than total teens die?  Please point to any data that explains that.

Edited November 14, 2016 by Calm

[Calm]

1 minute ago, Tacenda said:

Has this been posted? http://www.sltrib.com/news/4075258-155/story.html

I believe I did including a significant quote from it, though it might have glitched.

[Ouagadougou]

1 minute ago, Scott Lloyd said:

What you seem to be missing (or ignoring) is that the number of teen suicides that Mama Dragons said were LBGTQ is substantially higher than the total number of teen suicides for that period reported by the State Department of Health. Their numbers make no sense at all. Can't you at least admit that much?

I just looked at the State Department of Health numbers and yes, there are conflicting numbers, so yes.  

[Calm]

10 minutes ago, Scott Lloyd said:

I don't know what "tri-county" means, but Salt Lake County is the most urban county in the state. Tooele County is its neighbor to the west. My hunch is that suicide rates tend to be hihger in more urban areas.

 

Tri-county means Daggett, Duschene and Uintah counties, if google led me correctly, all counties with lower percentage LDS (though not the lowest).  They may be also the more mountainous which may be a more significant variable given the known, but not understood intermountain effect on suicide.

Edited November 14, 2016 by Calm

[Scott Lloyd]

1 minute ago, Calm said:

Tri-county means Daggett, Duschene and Uintah counties, if google led me correctly, all counties with lower percentage LDS (though not the lowest).

So can we conclude from this that suicide rates are higher in more urban areas of the state and in areas of the state with less concentration of Mormons? Or am I missing the message?

[Calm]

3 minutes ago, Ouagadougou said:

I just looked at the State Department of Health numbers and yes, there are conflicting numbers, so yes.  

CFR conflicting numbers for the numbers that were reported by the state from the time of th policy leak to the claim by Montgomery was published.

[Calm]

3 minutes ago, Scott Lloyd said:

So can we conclude from this that suicide rates are higher in more urban areas of the state and in areas of the state with less concentration of Mormons? Or am I missing the message?

Not making any message save that a claim that higher density LDS means increasing suicide risks doesn't appear to be founded on detailed enough stats (for example, variation across the states seem to indicated more LDS dense counties have less suicides so a state rate would be overweighted for LDS population).

Edited November 14, 2016 by Calm

[Scott Lloyd]

Just now, Calm said:

Not making any message save that a claim that higher density LDS means increasing suicide risks.

Got it.

 

[Calm]

This is what needs to be proved to be in conflict with other reported numbers:

"Preliminary figures for November and December show 10 suicides in the Beehive State for people ages 14 to 20, with two more cases "undetermined.""

[Calm]

"In 2015, 24.8% of Utah students reported they felt sad or hopeless, 16.6% reported they seriously considered attempting suicide, 13.5% reported they made a suicide plan, and 7.6% reported they attempted suicide one or more times. These were significantly higher than percentages reported in 2013 at 20.8%, 14.1%, 10.8% and 6.2% respectively (4). However, a 2013 study showed that Utah students who had positive family environments and attended religious services weekly were less likely to have considered suicide."

http://health.utah.gov/vipp/teens/youth-suicide/

Also:

"

Utah Youth Suicide Study

Utah has consistently had a higher youth suicide rate compared to the U.S. for more than a decade, prompting the development of the Utah Youth Suicide Study. Death certificates provided by the Office of the Medical Examiner and additional data from multiple government agencies were collected on 151 Utah youth suicides. Results showed:

• 89% of the suicide decedents were male.
• 63% of suicide decedents having had contact with the juvenile courts.
• 54% of the decedents who had contact with juvenile court had a referral(s) for substance possession, use, or abuse and 32% had one felony referral.
• 23% had a special education evaluation, primarily for behavioral disorders.
• 35% had either a suspension or expulsion from school.
• Only 1% of the suicide decedents were in public mental health treatment at the time of death.

Research indicates at least one in five youth under age 18 who have been arrested, have serious mental health problems. However, mental health services for youth in juvenile offender facilities are insufficient. Even fewer resources are available for juvenile offenders involved with probation officers outside juvenile facilities in Utah. Early mental health interventions through the juvenile court system can be a cost-effective way for reaching teens at risk for suicide. Treatment should include both psychiatric care and in-home behavioral intervention."

Edited November 14, 2016 by Calm

[Calm]

I am not sure you can get anything but the preliminary report for November and December 2015 as mentioned in several papers at the time as such tend to lag being publicly reported by a year or two.

I found a report for the total of 2014 for Utah, age 15-24 though, released Jan 2016.

Total for the full year, 12 months was suicides (not differentiated by orientation/identity):

http://www.worldlifeexpectancy.com/utah-cause-of-death-by-age-and-gender

Edited

We will need to wait two more months to have the official total count for 2015 it seems.

major oops because I read female only, which was 22; male was 80, giving total suicides 102 for 15-24 for 2014.

10-12 for that two month period is on track given that late spring and early summer tends to have the highest suicide rate and winter the lowest (on average it is 8.5 a month).

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Seasonal_effects_on_suicide_rates

Edited November 14, 2016 by Calm

[Scott Lloyd]

32 minutes ago, Calm said:

"In 2015, 24.8% of Utah students reported they felt sad or hopeless, 16.6% reported they seriously considered attempting suicide, 13.5% reported they made a suicide plan, and 7.6% reported they attempted suicide one or more times. These were significantly higher than percentages reported in 2013 at 20.8%, 14.1%, 10.8% and 6.2% respectively (4). However, a 2013 study showed that Utah students who had positive family environments and attended religious services weekly were less likely to have considered suicide."

 

So, according to the bolded portion above, the very thing that some are blaming for higher incidence of suicide in Utah -- the influence of the Church -- might be the very instrument that is mitigating the tendency for youths in the state to consider suicide.

The thought occurred to me that there tends to be a lot of talk in the rumor mill about Mormon parents driving their gay kids to commit suicide by kicking them out of the house, inflicting guilt upon them, withholding affection, what not.

However, the ideal in Mormonism is that in such situations there will be an outpouring of love and support for the children, even as there is disapproval for the gay behavior or lifestyle. That is certainly what the Church teaches (see the mormonandgay.org website). My intuition tells me that the love and support makes a great deal more difference in the end than does the acceptance or approval of the lifestyle.

[Calm]

I didn't bold it, btw.  The site did.