Tacenda Posted November 13, 2016 Posted November 13, 2016 8 minutes ago, Calm said: Yes, the truth that those making the claims have never done actually studies to demonstrate this. While suicide numbers are collected by the government, neither religion nor sexual identity/orientation is. There are some good studies out there showing for older homosexuals iirc, activity in their faith may have a negative coorelation as well as leaving that faith actually increases the suicide rate, not decreases it. Iirc Nevo cited the study in the same thread that demonstrated the Mamadragon claim was impossible due to there not being even teen suicides in general (and possibly teen deaths even), let alone when you adjusted for percentage of religion and orientation. The studies are unclear, because a lot of death certificates don't state whether the individual was gay or not. Neither do the obituaries, all we have to go on is personal stories from the horse's mouth. Mama Dragons know of these individuals, there is a huge underground of individuals speaking up about it.
Calm Posted November 13, 2016 Posted November 13, 2016 If you had read your DN link to the end, you would have seen the MD claim cannot be true: "Utah won't have final numbers for some time, but preliminary numbers for November and December in the Utah medical examiner's database show 25 total deaths in the 14-18 age group, with 10 suicides, said Teresa Brechlin, the violence prevention coordinator at the Utah Department of Health." How can one get 32 gay teen suicides out of 25 total teen deaths due to accident, illness, and suicide? (Iirc, there were two due to illnesss and no homicides for that time period, the rest were pretty evenly split between suicide and accident). 3
Calm Posted November 13, 2016 Posted November 13, 2016 (edited) 8 minutes ago, Tacenda said: The studies are unclear, because a lot of death certificates don't state whether the individual was gay or not. Neither do the obituaries, all we have to go on is personal stories from the horse's mouth. Mama Dragons know of these individuals, there is a huge underground of individuals speaking up about it. I don't believe any death certificates show identity or orientation and most do not do religion either iirc. Again, tell me how one can get thirty two suicides from ten suicides, even if one believes that the much larger heterosexual demographic did not contribute any suicides for those months. I am not suggesting Wendy Montgomery lied, but she could have misunderstood to been lied to. You cannot claim credibly 32 gay suicides are possible when it is 10 suicides of teens in general. Death, age, and manner of death numbers are collected. Whatever claims based on personal stories are made must fit those parameters, do you not agree? If not, where do you believe the missing numbers (bodies) are? Edited November 13, 2016 by Calm 2
Tacenda Posted November 13, 2016 Posted November 13, 2016 1 minute ago, Calm said: I don't believe any death certificates show identity or orientation and most do not do religion either iirc. Again, tell me how one can get thirty two suicides from ten suicides, even if one believes that the much larger heterosexual demographic did not contribute any suicides for those months. Maybe the parents felt to put accident instead of suicide, not sure. I'd have to see some documentation of this.
Calm Posted November 13, 2016 Posted November 13, 2016 It doesn't help a very real problem to make up numbers for impact, attention, sympathy, or whatever. I can understand why someone would in this case. But it doesn't help get one's claims to be taken seriously by those who can actually do something about them if one uses impossible, over the top stats. 3
Calm Posted November 13, 2016 Posted November 13, 2016 (edited) 21 minutes ago, Tacenda said: Maybe the parents felt to put accident instead of suicide, not sure. I'd have to see some documentation of this. The parents don't have the choice, each possible suicide/accidental death is investigated. A death certificate is not issued on a parent's say so. Kids don't die at home and get shuffled off to get buried without authorities noticing. Even if each of the 13 accidents was actually a suicide, that still yields 23 suicides for all teens in Utah for that time period. Are you seriously suggesting no heterosexual teen (who number around 20 times the number of gay teens in the state according to the usual results found in studies) committed suicide during this time period? No accidental deaths...every kid who was a passenger in a car accident or hit while crossing a street was actually intent on killing themselves and no heterosexual deaths even though we know in the past there is a very troubling percentage...and we still don't come close to having 32 deaths claimed (23 only). I find it reprehensible to completely ignore the important numbers of deaths due to accidents and illness among the heterosexual population in order to inflate the numbers of gay teen deaths, even if done out of fear for one's loved one. These heterosexual kids deserve as much respect and awareness as the homosexual ones. Their deaths are as great a tragedy to their families and friends. Why is it okay to pretend they don't exist by rewriting the numbers but such a crime to 'be in denial' by insisting one use credible stats for gay teen suicides? Edited November 13, 2016 by Calm 4
Scott Lloyd Posted November 13, 2016 Posted November 13, 2016 (edited) 4 hours ago, Tacenda said: Maybe the parents felt to put accident instead of suicide, not sure. I'd have to see some documentation of this. I daresay most, if not nearly all, accidental deaths are investigated, particularly teen deaths. Consider the various means of self-inflicted death. There aren't all that many: hanging, asphyxiation, gunshot, jumping from a high place, poisoning or drug overdose, slitting wrists, rushing in front of a speeding car or train. It seems to me it would be very difficult to make a suicide appear accidental -- especially for a teenager. Edited November 13, 2016 by Scott Lloyd 2
Scott Lloyd Posted November 13, 2016 Posted November 13, 2016 (edited) 11 hours ago, Calm said: It doesn't help a very real problem to make up numbers for impact, attention, sympathy, or whatever. I can understand why someone would in this case. But it doesn't help get one's claims to be taken seriously by those who can actually do something about them if one uses impossible, over the top stats. Not only that, but it can be dangerous due to the very real possibility of suicide contagion. Inflating the reports and statistics to make a political point is irresponsible at best. Edited November 14, 2016 by Scott Lloyd 2
Calm Posted November 13, 2016 Posted November 13, 2016 (edited) My memory of the numbers were slightly off, one death by illness, one by homicide, two undetermined, 10 suicide, 11 accidental...but close enough it doesn't change the math as demonstrated by Stack: "Trouble is, the number far exceeds the suicide figures collected by the Utah Department of Health. Preliminary figures for November and December show 10 suicides in the Beehive State for people ages 14 to 20, with two more cases "undetermined." In fact, the department reports, the overall number of Utah deaths for that age group in those months was 25, including the 10 suicides and two "undetermined" cases, along with 11 in accidents, one by natural causes and one homicide. "We monitor the numbers [of youth suicides] very closely. We review them every month," says Teresa Brechlin, who works in the department's violence- and injury-prevention program. "If we had seen such a huge spike, we would have been investigating it." Had there been any mention of the LDS Church's policy on gays, her department "would have noted that," Brechlin adds. "We have not seen that at all."" http://www.sltrib.com/news/lds/3473487-155/suicide-fears-if-not-actual-suicides Edited November 13, 2016 by Calm 3
Ouagadougou Posted November 13, 2016 Posted November 13, 2016 1 hour ago, Calm said: Youth suicide is definitely a problem in Utah as it is in surrounding states, including those without a high LDS population. Plus studies that deal specifically with LDS religion as a variable demonstrate that being an active LDS has a high protective effect for teen males (iirc, it is close to nonactive being four times as likely to commit suicide as well as nonLDS being 7 times as likely as active LDS). There have been no studies that have dealt specifically with gay LDS teens so it is impossible to judge how much weight other demonstrated, but conflicting variables would play for that demographic group. Would the protective nature of being LDS, especially active LDS be negated or would it negate the higher general suicide rate of gay teens? Even if there is no data on gay LDS teens, and as you mentioned, "Youth suicide is definitely a problem in Utah as it is in surrounding states, including those without a high LDS population, then why would this article state the following? 11) Mentally Healthier "While some suggest otherwise, the research shows that Latter-day Saints also have advantages in mental health. Both Mormon men and women are less likely to be depressed than Americans in general. Mormon teens are more optimistic and less likely to commit suicide. And overall the more active you are in the LDS church the more meaning you find in your life." That is not the case... "Youth in the 15-19 age group who live in states with heavy Mormon populations are at higher risk for suicide. As Knoll put it, “These are objectively small numbers, but it means that (again, controlling for other factors) youth suicides are twice as high in states with the highest levels of Mormon residents compared to states with the lowest levels of Mormon residents.” http://religionnews.com/2016/03/12/study-shows-link-teen-suicide-mormon-populations/
Marmonboy Posted November 13, 2016 Posted November 13, 2016 Correlation does not mean causation. Unless the religious affiliation of the victims is mentioned, there is no way to determine how many of the victims were LDS, and statements that Mormons are killing themselves in record numbers have no discernible basis in fact. 3
Calm Posted November 13, 2016 Posted November 13, 2016 (edited) Did the study take into account the intermountain effect? I don't have time to more than glance at your link for now. Will look in detail at it later. A study that actually identified LDS youth and did not just use percentages of a state (useful, but doesn't control for activity among other things) had much lower rates. http://en.fairmormon.org/Utah/Statistical_claims/Suicide_rate_among_Mormons This analysis does not include information from your link but was the best IMO at that time and any new info needs to respond to it: https://virtuoussociety.com/2015/01/26/re-examining-gay-mormon-youth-and-suicide-what-does-the-data-say/ This information from a study of five years ending in 95 as well as earlier years may be out of date, but given it showed consistent over time findings needs something similar to replace it IMO, and unless my quick glance misled me your link does not follow as rigorous an identification process. https://ojs.lib.byu.edu/spc/index.php/BYUStudies/article/viewFile/6651/6300 Edited November 13, 2016 by Calm 2
Calm Posted November 13, 2016 Posted November 13, 2016 Ouagadougou, do you at least agree the MamaDragon claim is impossible? 2
Calm Posted November 13, 2016 Posted November 13, 2016 http://www.sltrib.com/news/4075258-155/story.html "Hood said there are some risk factors found more frequently in Utah and other Rocky Mountain states that may explain why suicide rates are higher in those states than the national average. Residents in Utah move more frequently, which could leave them with fewer social connections and support. There are also theories that lower oxygen levels at higher altitudes can contribute to higher suicide rates and a western, rugged mentality of self-reliance may keep some from seeking help for depression. Utah and other Rocky Mountain states also have higher rates of gun ownership. Firearm owners aren't more likely to die by suicide, but people who commit suicide are more likely to use guns if they own them than any other method, Hood said. That extends to children, as nearly half of the youth who have died from suicide in recent years used a firearm. To try to prevent that, advocates are encouraging gun owners to ensure their weapons are secure and last year, Utah began distributing 40,000 free cable gun locks." 1
Ouagadougou Posted November 13, 2016 Posted November 13, 2016 31 minutes ago, Calm said: Ouagadougou, do you at least agree the MamaDragon claim is impossible? I think suicide is so complex that one underlying problem is not the sole cause; rather, it's most likely a compilation of several different factors, IMO. With that being said, it has to go both ways though -- others can't claim that just by being an active LDS member will somehow lower suicide rates (as # 11 in the article states), especially when you look at suicide rates among LDS populations.
carbon dioxide Posted November 13, 2016 Posted November 13, 2016 For me, those 21 points are nice but any faith can provide at least most of them to an individual. The difference being LDS and not LDS for me is not what fruits it gives to me in this life but what it offers me after death when it really matters. In the end whether the church is true or not will be the only thing that matters.
Bernard Gui Posted November 13, 2016 Posted November 13, 2016 14 hours ago, Ouagadougou said: "Wendy Montgomery, a co-founder of the Mama Dragons, a group of Mormon mothers with gay children, reported last week that she had been told 32 young LGBT Mormons have died by suicide since early November." http://www.deseretnews.com/article/865646414/LDS-Church-leaders-mourn-reported-deaths-in-Mormon-LGBT-community.html?pg=all ttp://www.kued.org/sites/default/files/utah-facts-2016_2000.pdf http://utahsuicideprevention.org/facts-data Dueling stats and sources. The truth must exist somewhere.
Calm Posted November 13, 2016 Posted November 13, 2016 56 minutes ago, Ouagadougou said: I think suicide is so complex that one underlying problem is not the sole cause; rather, it's most likely a compilation of several different factors, IMO. With that being said, it has to go both ways though -- others can't claim that just by being an active LDS member will somehow lower suicide rates (as # 11 in the article states), especially when you look at suicide rates among LDS populations. I agree that it is complicated, there are probably an infinite number of contributing factors. That completely ignores my question though. The claim was 26-32 teen gay suicides (number depends on report, perfectly happy to go for the lower number). The reality was 10 teen suicides without differentiation for the 2% of the population that is likely homosexual and that other studies generally show a suicide rate of 4 times as much as the general American population. Even with a four times death rate, one is at best (meaning at worst) approaching 10% of the suicides or 1 suicide where 26 were claimed. will you make a definite statement rejecting her claim?
Calm Posted November 13, 2016 Posted November 13, 2016 1 minute ago, Bernard Gui said: Dueling stats and sources. The truth must exist somewhere. Personal anecdotes gathered from unconfirmed sources vs. government numbers gathered from police and medical records. Which do you find to be likely most accurate? 2
Calm Posted November 13, 2016 Posted November 13, 2016 1 hour ago, Ouagadougou said: especially when you look at suicide rates among LDS populations. The only study linked to that looks at LDS population finds a significant decrease among LDS compared to nonLDS in the same community. The other analysis you linked to estimated percentage ofLDS in their population, iow it was a general population with a high percentage. Iirc,the author claimed to control fordemographics, but I didn't see any reference to the intermountain suicide effect so if that wasn't addressed in his demographics, it invalidates much of his findings. 2
Bernard Gui Posted November 13, 2016 Posted November 13, 2016 5 minutes ago, Calm said: Personal anecdotes gathered from unconfirmed sources vs. government numbers gathered from police and medical records. Which do you find to be likely most accurate? Hmmmmm. Let me think a minute. 1
Bernard Gui Posted November 13, 2016 Posted November 13, 2016 (edited) Ok. The minute is up. I'll go with the official record. I cited two fairly recent reports that show while increasing, Utah's teen rate is below the national average, but then was told I'm in denial and that it's one of the highest. Who knows? In the news story cited above, the state official was quoted as saying they had seen no correlation between the Church's policy declaration and increased suicides, and that they were keeping a close eye on it. I have never seen a death certificate that included the deceased's religion or sexual inclinations. Any suicide is a tragedy and we should do all we can to help those who contemplate it. Edited November 13, 2016 by Bernard Gui 1
Calm Posted November 13, 2016 Posted November 13, 2016 (edited) removed comment, based on out dated info add-on:. Looks like I am a bit behind in stats, downward trend has reversed: http://www.sltrib.com/news/1842825-155/mormon-populace-picks-up-the-pace Edited November 13, 2016 by Calm
Scott Lloyd Posted November 13, 2016 Posted November 13, 2016 (edited) 1 hour ago, Ouagadougou said: I think suicide is so complex that one underlying problem is not the sole cause; rather, it's most likely a compilation of several different factors, IMO. With that being said, it has to go both ways though -- others can't claim that just by being an active LDS member will somehow lower suicide rates (as # 11 in the article states), especially when you look at suicide rates among LDS populations. Not only did you disregard Calm's question (about the impossibility of the Mama Dragons claim) but you ignored what she said about the Intermountain factor. That is, states surrounding Utah --which don't have high Mormon populations -- have higher-than-normal suicide rates too. Ergo, religion is less plausible as an explanation than, say, the effects of high altitude on mental health. Maybe it's so substantial a factor that even Mormonism can't mitigate it Blaming stuff on Mormonism is easy sometimes. Too easy. Deceptively easy. A more reliable way to look at it would be to compare rates among Mormons who live elsewhere with the rates of other populations in that same area. Edited November 13, 2016 by Scott Lloyd 1
Calm Posted November 13, 2016 Posted November 13, 2016 "2015 Prevention Needs Assessment data indicate that Salt Lake County and Tooele County Health District students had hsignificantly higher rates of psychological distress, TriCounty Health District students had significantly higher rates of making a suicide plan, and Toeele and TriCounty Health District students had significantly higher rates of attempting suicide compared to the state." https://ibis.health.utah.gov/indicator/important_facts/SuicDth.html If I understand the findings reported here, it would appear that the Utah counties considered most at risk are also those with a lower percentage of LDS: http://www.sltrib.com/news/1842825-155/mormon-populace-picks-up-the-pace
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