An Outsider's Perspective on the Fabricated/Exaggerated/Unsubstantiated Suicide Statistic Debacle

[smac97]

I just saw a very good Opinion Piece in the Salt Lake Tribune by Mikle South, a Professor of Psychology (at BYU) about the "misuse of suicide data" (emphasis added):

Quote

 

Op-ed: Misuse of Utah suicide data makes it harder to address
By Mikle South
First Published Feb 06 2016 03:00PM    •    Last Updated Feb 07 2016 07:44 pm

Reported suicides among LGBTQ youth in Utah have received increased attention over the past few weeks. Because every suicide is a heartbreaking tragedy, increased understanding regarding contributing factors is needed in order to prevent future deaths. Unfortunately, some recent commentaries have misconstrued available facts.

Some may not realize that Utah belongs to the so-called "suicide belt" along the Intermountain Corridor. Suicide rates throughout this region are considerably higher than anywhere else in the country save Alaska, where rates are more than double the national average. Within this geographical context, Utah is not unique with regards to suicide.

Thus far, identifying the cause of this regional phenomenon remains elusive. Other regions with high rates of religiosity and availability of guns do not show similar patterns of suicide. Some research has suggested that lowered oxygen availability at higher altitudes affects brain chemistry in ways that increase vulnerability for depression and suicide, but this is not likely the only factor, and this and other possible causes are still being explored.

Surveys have shown that LGBTQ adolescents nationwide have a heightened suicide risk. Recent anonymous reports suggest that LGBTQ youth in predominantly LDS cultures have an increased risk beyond that. These reports contradict data from the Utah Department of Health, calling into question their validity, but the reality of the suffering of these youth still needs to be addressed.

The "silent stories" series published by an unofficial, off-campus group of students at Brigham Young University provides detailed information about individual cases of discrimination, depression, and suicidality experienced throughout their lives. While shame and guilt are associated with talking about these topics, such willingness to share these stories publicly can help make the topic a more urgent concern in the community.

An important question is how to use data collected from individual case reports to develop to a broader understanding of and solution to the problem. Experts recommend adding a place for information regarding sexuality concerns to suicide reports in the National Violent Death Reporting System administered by the Centers for Disease Control. I encourage Utah to embrace such recommendations.

...

Suicide is a major health concern for all youth in Utah, and may be a particular concern for LGBTQ youth. Recent misuse of suicide data in Utah for political purposes makes discussions about this topic more difficult. Such conversations should rely on verified information and address the hard questions about emotional and cultural experiences related to depression and suicide.

 

Sound counsel, I think.

Thanks,

-Smac

 

[Scott Lloyd]

1 hour ago, smac97 said:

I just wanted to drop a note and advise that Wendy Montgomery's apparently fabricated and falsified statistics are still being quoted in news outlets.

• Slate (Published on February 8, 2016): Under the title "The Mormon Church Issued New Punishments for Gays. Then the Suicides Began": "Wendy Montgomery, a Mormon mom who has a gay son and works with the Family Acceptance Project at San Francisco State University, believes that at least 32 gay Mormon youths have killed themselves since the announcement of the new policy."

The article then interviews a representative of The Mama Dragons.  Not only is there no correction or retraction, this representative is treating the statistic as an established fact ("Hancock" is the journalist and "Oviatt" is the MD representative):

So truth doesn't matter.  The ends justify the means.  

• Gay Star News (published on February 8, 2016): Under the title "How the Mormon Church can (and will) overturn its new policy and embrace LGBTIs," Mitch Mayne weighs in.  I find it interesting that he goes to such lengths to bolster his credentials.  He's essentially misleading his readership in few material respects:

This is misleading in a few ways.  First, him being called as an executive secretary has nothing to do with the merits of his argument.  It's a classically fallacious appeal to authority.

Second, executive secretaries are not "in the bishopric."  They do not hold those keys.  They do not need to be High Priests (unlike members of a bishopric, who do).  They have no voice in bishopric decisions (although our bishop occasionally invites our ward's executive secretary and ward clerk to chime in on some issues during their bishopric meetings).  They cannot preside in a meeting where a bishopric member is supposed to.  They cannot set people apart in callings.  They cannot count tithing.  They do not participate in disciplinary proceedings.  They do not perform temple recommend interviews.  They are not in the bishopric.  It is simply false for him to declare otherwise.

Finally, I think "openly gay" is rather ambiguous.  If "openly gay" means "open about having a same-sex orientation, but adhering to The Law of Chastity and its prohibition against homosexual conduct," then I'd be fine with it.  But I think the audience of "Gay Star News" probably doesn't take "openly gay" to mean that.  

Anyway, here's what Mitch Mayne has to say (hyperlinks omitted) (emphasis added):

Lovely stuff.

• The Washington Blade (published on February 5, 2016): Under the title "Moms of Mormon gays track teen suicides": "Montgomery reports that since the LDS church policy was announced, calling gay LDS couples apostates and banning their children from baptism until they are adults and denounce gay marriage, 34 LDS/LGBT youth between the ages of 14 and 20, have committed suicide. She said 28 of those suicides happened in Utah."  And this: "'I think it’s important that we realize the shame and hurt we are putting on the gay community as members of the church,' Jill Hazard Rowe, a Mama Dragon, who lives in Utah, told KUTV. She is Mormon and has a gay son."

No hint of a retraction.  No qualification or clarification.

I'm thinking of sending all of these links to The Mama Dragons and asking them to contact these outlets with the "clarifications" which have been issued by Wendy Montgomery.  I'd like to give this group a chance to do the right thing.  To be on the right side of history.

Thanks,

-Smac

I think it would be very appropriate for you to send those links and to encourage this group to "do the right thing," as you say.

And I'm glad you made the point about Mitch Mayne. For too long he has been trading politically on the all-too-common misconception that a ward executive secretary is "in the bishopric." In so doing, he has tried to confer upon himself ecclesiastical stature that is not his. That strikes me as improper.

The bishopric consists of the bishop, the first counselor and the second counselor. Period. End of statement. No equivocation. No exceptions. No special cases.

 

Edited February 8, 2016 by Scott Lloyd

[Storm Rider]

41 minutes ago, smac97 said:

I just wanted to drop a note and advise that Wendy Montgomery's apparently fabricated and falsified statistics are still being quoted in news outlets.

• Slate (Published on February 8, 2016): Under the title "The Mormon Church Issued New Punishments for Gays. Then the Suicides Began": "Wendy Montgomery, a Mormon mom who has a gay son and works with the Family Acceptance Project at San Francisco State University, believes that at least 32 gay Mormon youths have killed themselves since the announcement of the new policy."

The article then interviews a representative of The Mama Dragons.  Not only is there no correction or retraction, this representative is treating the statistic as an established fact ("Hancock" is the journalist and "Oviatt" is the MD representative):

So truth doesn't matter.  The ends justify the means.  

• Gay Star News (published on February 8, 2016): Under the title "How the Mormon Church can (and will) overturn its new policy and embrace LGBTIs," Mitch Mayne weighs in.  I find it interesting that he goes to such lengths to bolster his credentials.  He's essentially misleading his readership in few material respects:

This is misleading in a few ways.  First, him being called as an executive secretary has nothing to do with the merits of his argument.  It's a classically fallacious appeal to authority.

Second, executive secretaries are not "in the bishopric."  They do not hold those keys.  They do not need to be High Priests (unlike members of a bishopric, who do).  They have no voice in bishopric decisions (although our bishop occasionally invites our ward's executive secretary and ward clerk to chime in on some issues during their bishopric meetings).  They cannot preside in a meeting where a bishopric member is supposed to.  They cannot set people apart in callings.  They cannot count tithing.  They do not participate in disciplinary proceedings.  They do not perform temple recommend interviews.  They are not in the bishopric.  It is simply false for him to declare otherwise.

Finally, I think "openly gay" is rather ambiguous.  If "openly gay" means "open about having a same-sex orientation, but adhering to The Law of Chastity and its prohibition against homosexual conduct," then I'd be fine with it.  But I think the audience of "Gay Star News" probably doesn't take "openly gay" to mean that.  

Anyway, here's what Mitch Mayne has to say (hyperlinks omitted) (emphasis added):

Lovely stuff.

• The Washington Blade (published on February 5, 2016): Under the title "Moms of Mormon gays track teen suicides": "Montgomery reports that since the LDS church policy was announced, calling gay LDS couples apostates and banning their children from baptism until they are adults and denounce gay marriage, 34 LDS/LGBT youth between the ages of 14 and 20, have committed suicide. She said 28 of those suicides happened in Utah."  And this: "'I think it’s important that we realize the shame and hurt we are putting on the gay community as members of the church,' Jill Hazard Rowe, a Mama Dragon, who lives in Utah, told KUTV. She is Mormon and has a gay son."

No hint of a retraction.  No qualification or clarification.

I'm thinking of sending all of these links to The Mama Dragons and asking them to contact these outlets with the "clarifications" which have been issued by Wendy Montgomery.  I'd like to give this group a chance to do the right thing.  To be on the right side of history.

Thanks,

-Smac

Please let us know of her response.  I admire those who strive to do right and have little respect for activists who only have one sound and willingly sacrifice the means to justify their desired end.  

[Calm]

Quote

I'm thinking of sending all of these links to The Mama Dragons and asking them to contact these outlets with the "clarifications" which have been issued by Wendy Montgomery.  I'd like to give this group a chance to do the right thing.

Great idea.

[Russell C McGregor]

4 hours ago, smac97 said:

I just wanted to drop a note and advise that Wendy Montgomery's apparently fabricated and falsified statistics are still being quoted in news outlets.

• Slate (Published on February 8, 2016): Under the title "The Mormon Church Issued New Punishments for Gays. Then the Suicides Began": "Wendy Montgomery, a Mormon mom who has a gay son and works with the Family Acceptance Project at San Francisco State University, believes that at least 32 gay Mormon youths have killed themselves since the announcement of the new policy."

The article then interviews a representative of The Mama Dragons.  Not only is there no correction or retraction, this representative is treating the statistic as an established fact ("Hancock" is the journalist and "Oviatt" is the MD representative):

So truth doesn't matter.  The ends justify the means.  

• Gay Star News (published on February 8, 2016): Under the title "How the Mormon Church can (and will) overturn its new policy and embrace LGBTIs," Mitch Mayne weighs in.  I find it interesting that he goes to such lengths to bolster his credentials.  He's essentially misleading his readership in few material respects:

This is misleading in a few ways.  First, him being called as an executive secretary has nothing to do with the merits of his argument.  It's a classically fallacious appeal to authority.

Second, executive secretaries are not "in the bishopric."  They do not hold those keys.  They do not need to be High Priests (unlike members of a bishopric, who do).  They have no voice in bishopric decisions (although our bishop occasionally invites our ward's executive secretary and ward clerk to chime in on some issues during their bishopric meetings).  They cannot preside in a meeting where a bishopric member is supposed to.  They cannot set people apart in callings.  They cannot count tithing.  They do not participate in disciplinary proceedings.  They do not perform temple recommend interviews.  They are not in the bishopric.  It is simply false for him to declare otherwise.

Finally, I think "openly gay" is rather ambiguous.  If "openly gay" means "open about having a same-sex orientation, but adhering to The Law of Chastity and its prohibition against homosexual conduct," then I'd be fine with it.  But I think the audience of "Gay Star News" probably doesn't take "openly gay" to mean that.  

Anyway, here's what Mitch Mayne has to say (hyperlinks omitted) (emphasis added):

Lovely stuff.

• The Washington Blade (published on February 5, 2016): Under the title "Moms of Mormon gays track teen suicides": "Montgomery reports that since the LDS church policy was announced, calling gay LDS couples apostates and banning their children from baptism until they are adults and denounce gay marriage, 34 LDS/LGBT youth between the ages of 14 and 20, have committed suicide. She said 28 of those suicides happened in Utah."  And this: "'I think it’s important that we realize the shame and hurt we are putting on the gay community as members of the church,' Jill Hazard Rowe, a Mama Dragon, who lives in Utah, told KUTV. She is Mormon and has a gay son."

No hint of a retraction.  No qualification or clarification.

I'm thinking of sending all of these links to The Mama Dragons and asking them to contact these outlets with the "clarifications" which have been issued by Wendy Montgomery.  I'd like to give this group a chance to do the right thing.  To be on the right side of history.

Thanks,

-Smac

Question: if Ms. Montgomery really isn't telling people that all these alleged suicides happened since November 5, why are all the articles making that claim?

Or is it just a case of journalists repeating each other without checking with the source?

[Daniel2]

2 hours ago, Calm said:

Great idea.

I agree.  I think direct dialogue is always the best option, and I think it's entirely appropriate to engage Mama Dragons to fully understand events as they've transpired, as well as fully understand the intentions and motivations of Ms. Montgomery and others, with the intention of harmonizing truths from falsehoods, clarifying grey areas, and being certain we are discussing suicide in a way that preserves lives and avoids suicide contagion on ALL sides--including LGBT-allied groups like Mama Dragons.  I look forward to hearing if they respond, as well.

Edited February 8, 2016 by Daniel2

[smac97]

32 minutes ago, Russell C McGregor said:

Question: if Ms. Montgomery really isn't telling people that all these alleged suicides happened since November 5, why are all the articles making that claim?

Or is it just a case of journalists repeating each other without checking with the source?

I think it's just a case of journalists repeating each other without checking with the source.  And that's the charitable assessment (the more cynical one being that they are deliberately perpetuating fabrications because they support the underlying narrative).

Thanks,

-Smac

[Jeanne]

I think getting in touch with them would be a great idea also.  To get some answers to a lot of questions here also gives them an opportunity to clarify to directly. I really believed the article/esay in the beginning and still believe it shines some on some existing problems.  But with inconsistent data and timing, I would like them to answer the gray areas here so we can help.

 

Edited February 9, 2016 by Jeanne

[Scott Lloyd]

33 minutes ago, smac97 said:

I think it's just a case of journalists repeating each other without checking with the source.  And that's the charitable assessment (the more cynical one being that they are deliberately perpetuating fabrications because they support the underlying narrative).

Thanks,

-Smac

I think we need to consider who these so-called "journalists" are and the underlying agenda of the publication or the blog or whatever it is.

If the Tribune, which is no great friend of the Church, could have the professionalism to check things out and get the facts straight, one would think others could as well.

Montgomery et al need to set things straight on this thing. The credibility of Mama Dragons is at stake.

 

[smac97]

On 2/4/2016 at 2:49 PM, smac97 said:

Here: "Young, gay Mormons and suicide: The Salt Lake Tribune tries to do the real numbers" by Julia Duin.

Some excerpts;

Meanwhile, LDS Church and its leaders and its doctrines and its members get beaten to a pulp by a mob of people who have been materially misled and egged on by fabricated data.

Well, it is Peggy Fletcher Stack and the Tribune, after all.  Her reporting on Mormonism is uneven.

Well, to the Tribune's credit, they did some research.  But to its discredit, it buried in the lede.  Big time.

The answer, I think, comes in the next paragraph:

These aren't the only news outlets that "ran with it":

• Months after LDS policy change, 32 Mormon youth have committed suicide
• Group fears youth suicides up since LDS policy about gay couples, children
• 'Shocking' Surge In Mormon LGBT Suicides Blamed On LDS Church Policy: Elders Respond To Rumored Connection ("A recent surge in suicides among Mormons is shocking locals.  Some mental health experts think they know why Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-day Saints (or LDS) members are killing themselves: the recent policy change of the Mormon Church on the LGBT or LGBTQ community, namely children...")
• Affirmation (this is where Wendy Montgomery first aired her "statistics").

So the natural and expected result of Wendy Montgomery publishing horrendous (and now all but falsified) data about teen suicides was . . . vilification of the LDS Church and its leaders and members and doctrines.  Trying (and, it appears to some extent, succeeding) to make the Church and its beliefs and adherents look bad.

That, I submit, was the objective.  Pressure tactics against the Church by church members designed to foment popular opinion and ill will against the LDS Church so as to coerce the Church into capitulating to the preferences of "agitators."  Kate Kelly, take a bow!

Thanks,

-Smac

I'm adding one more to the bullet list above:

• TheNewCivilRightsMovement.com: ("LDS Elder Says Question of Whether Church is Responsible for At Least 32 Deaths Can Only Be Answered by 'Higher Authority' on 'Judgment Day'")

Thanks,

-Smac

[Mars]

On 2/8/2016 at 6:54 PM, smac97 said:

I think it's just a case of journalists repeating each other without checking with the source.  And that's the charitable assessment (the more cynical one being that they are deliberately perpetuating fabrications because they support the underlying narrative).

Thanks,

-Smac

the nehor isn't the only one who likes xkcd:

[USU78]

On 2/5/2016 at 6:13 AM, Storm Rider said:

It appears that Wendy, and possibly her husband, are willing to be the type of activists that will do a whole lot of things to achieve their desired end.  Did she lie?  In technical terms it appears she did not lie, but she seems to play fast and loose with facts if it supports her objectives.

Upon far flimsier bases have the disaffected and distanced claimed to have been "lied to" by the Church, teachers and parents.

On the nosey!

[USU78]

On 2/4/2016 at 4:01 PM, Nevo said:

A couple of points:

•  First, suicide and suicide ideation among young gay Mormons is a real thing.

•  Second, Wendy Montgomery did not "publish data about teen suicides"—she reported what she had been told.

•  Finally, I don't think Montgomery or Gustav-Wrathall had any intention of "vilifying the LDS Church," "trying to make the Church look bad," or "fomenting popular opinion and ill will" towards the Church in order "to coerce the Church into capitulating." I think they were honestly alarmed and worried about what they were hearing.

If it turns out that no LDS youth killed themselves as a result of the policy change, then we should all be relieved and grateful.

 

"Publish" doesn't mean what you apparently think it means.  The minute she opened her mouth, Wendy "published" the claims she made.

[Meadowchik]

On 2/5/2016 at 8:42 PM, ALarson said:

Do you have a quote by her stating that?  

She most likely could have stated more clearly that these suicides were reported to her during those months, but did she specifically state that they took place during the last two months?

When she issued her clarification in a certain FB group, the blogger who wrote Numbers Tell the Story pointed out that she checked with her that the numbers were for November and after, saying she had an affirmative answer from Wendy, here's the actual quote:

Lisa Torcasso Downing (speaking to Wendy Williams Montgomery)  "I don't question your integrity either. In fact, I relied on it. I confirmed these numbers with you in a closed group and made it clear I wanted that clarification because I intended to publish about them. I hope you aren't throwing me under the bus here. I specifically asked about suicides since Nov 5, not about reports since Nov 5. And you answered 34"

Edited February 16, 2016 by Meadowchik

[juliann]

This is out today.  Has this been done for Utah?

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/morning-mix/wp/2016/02/16/cdc-investigates-why-so-many-high-school-students-in-wealthy-palo-alto-have-committed-suicide/
 

Quote

In response to what Santa Clara County officials have called an urgent public health problem, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention is launching an epidemiological study on teen suicide in the area. A team of suicide prevention specialists is arriving in Santa Clara on Tuesday for a two-week site visit.

 

Quote

In November 2014, the CDC conducted similar research in Fairfax, Va., and found “multiple risk factors,” including high expectations for students, parental pressure on students for success and parental denial of mental health issues among their children. It found that 72 percent of youth suicides exhibited mental health problems.

 

[USU78]

43 minutes ago, juliann said:

This is out today.  Has this been done for Utah?

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/morning-mix/wp/2016/02/16/cdc-investigates-why-so-many-high-school-students-in-wealthy-palo-alto-have-committed-suicide/
 

 

 

 

Good question:  UT population is right around 3M, while Santa Clara County is just under 2M.

[Calm]

Utah government and charities do seem to be heavily into suicide prevention programs (for example, the mantherapy program).  It seems highly unlikely that something wouldn't have been done if the government saw anything like has been reported...and yet, nothing like this has been done that I have seen (and I was googling a lot on the topic recently and gave links to some of what has been done).

[Calm]

From the link:

Quote

Over the course of nine months in 2009 and 2010, six Palo Alto teenagers committed suicide. Between 2010 and 2014, an average of 20 children and young adults killed themselves annually in Santa Clara County, where Palo Alto is located.

And yet 26 suicides in Utah in the last three months didn't get any attention from the government?

add-on:  found CDC studies done in Utah for autism and fallout problems and valley fever (though not sure if the last was a special study of multiple states or just reporting of info sent in).

Edited February 16, 2016 by Calm

[Calm]

For the Fairfax report (which as far as I can tell was the first time they addressed teen suicides in this way), there were 16 deaths, but it started out with just 3 getting their attention.

http://www.fairfaxcounty.gov/hd/suicide/epi-aid-exit-briefing-slides.pdf

PS:  getting six or more hours of sleep was found to have a protective effect, so make sure your kids aren't sleep deprived.

Edited February 17, 2016 by Calm

[sjdawg]

On 2/5/2016 at 5:46 AM, Russell C McGregor said:

But Avatar, even if that was the case, don't you know that "Even one is too many?"

So that even if the Church's teachings and support system were able to prevent all but one suicide, that one would still be the Church's fault?

Get with the program! Suicide stats are rhetorical weapons!!

 

It's great that you can be so flippant about suicide.   

[Russell C McGregor]

8 minutes ago, sjdawg said:

It's great that you can be so flippant about suicide.   

It's great that you can so heroically misunderstand a rather simple point.

The subject is not suicide. The subject is the misuse of (or outright fabrication of) suicide statistics as polemical weapons.

And the "Even one is too many" meme is the fall-back argument for the attackers when the stats are shown to be bogus.

I am in nowise "flippant" about any actual suicides. Kindly refrain from bearing false witness.

Thankyouverymuch.

 

[sjdawg]

On 2/8/2016 at 10:39 PM, Scott Lloyd said:

 

Disregard - having trouble with quote function

 

Edited February 17, 2016 by sjdawg

[Russell C McGregor]

On ‎08‎/‎02‎/‎2016 at 8:39 AM, Scott Lloyd said:

I think it would be very appropriate for you to send those links and to encourage this group to "do the right thing," as you say.

And I'm glad you made the point about Mitch Mayne. For too long he has been trading politically on the all-too-common misconception that a ward executive secretary is "in the bishopric." In so doing, he has tried to confer upon himself ecclesiastical stature that is not his. That strikes me as improper.

The bishopric consists of the bishop, the first counselor and the second counselor. Period. End of statement. No equivocation. No exceptions. No special cases.

 

I'm not certain that the misconception is all that common. I served as an Exec. Sec. and nobody ever accused me of being "in the bishopric." If it's "common", I suspect it's mostly common in (ahem) less-active circles.

[sjdawg]

On 2/8/2016 at 10:39 PM, Scott Lloyd said:

 

The bishopric consists of the bishop, the first counselor and the second counselor. Period. End of statement. No equivocation. No exceptions. No special cases.

 

this has always been my understanding as well however just for fun I logged into my LDS.org account to see how it is presented.   When I look at my ward leadership it lists the Bishop, First counselor, second counselor, executive secretary, ward clerk, and assistant ward clerk as the composition of the Bishopric.

I agree with your definition of Bishopric but understand how someone could come to the conclusion that the other positions are also in the Bishopric.  (If I use LDS.org website functionality to email the Bishopric leaders I noticed that it will email the Bishop, Councillors, secretary, and clerks.   Its not doctrinal but it appears that functionally at least some consider the other positions as part of the Bishopric)

[sjdawg]

18 minutes ago, Russell C McGregor said:

It's great that you can so heroically misunderstand a rather simple point.

 

As far as I could tell there was no actual point to the referenced post beyond being caustic.   I don't get accused of heroics very often so I'll take it where I can get it.

thankyouverymuch