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An Outsider's Perspective on the Fabricated/Exaggerated/Unsubstantiated Suicide Statistic Debacle


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Posted (edited)
7 minutes ago, ALarson said:

You can pretty much just go back over to the other thread and read it because there's nothing new here (from what I've seen so far).   

 

You can start with the link in the OP, a very astute news analysis summarizing and dissecting this whole mess. And draw lessons therefrom about rumor-mongering and being taken in by it. I believe it was Santayana who said those who do not learn from history are condemned to repeat it.

If you don't like what's going on in this thread, you are not obliged to read it. But why are you trying to shut down discussion?

Edited by Scott Lloyd
Posted
11 minutes ago, ALarson said:

Do you have a quote by her stating that?  

She most likely could have stated more clearly that these suicides were reported to her during those months, but did she specifically state that they took place during the last two months?

You're right in that it was L. T. Downing who specifically reported that. She quoted Wendy as her source for the statement. 

Not necessarily Wendy's fault, unless she somehow led people to assume the time frame. 

Posted
1 minute ago, Scott Lloyd said:

You can start with the link in the OP, a very astute news analysis summarizing and dissecting this whole mess. And draw lessons therefrom about rumor-mongering and being taken in by it. I believe it was Santayana who said those who do not learn from history are condemned to repeat it.I

I read it and saw nothing new that hadn't been expressed by numerous posters previously on here.

There are definitely lessons to be learned here on both sides.  One should be more clear when speaking to a group about a topic as sensitive as teen suicides and then be more prompt to correct misunderstandings that are being published.  But others shouldn't label someone a liar and claim it was done deliberately either without further clarification.  All good lessons to learn.

Posted
8 minutes ago, Mystery Meat said:

She has a history of fabricating, exaggerating or being very sloppy with the truth.

If that is the case, I  wasn't aware of it (I'm being truthful here).

Do you have past quotes from Wendy that contain fabrications?   I would like to read them, if you do.  Thanks. 

Posted
4 minutes ago, bluebell said:

You're right in that it was L. T. Downing who specifically reported that. She quoted Wendy as her source for the statement. 

Not necessarily Wendy's fault, unless she somehow led people to assume the time frame. 

I completely agree.  I've asked a few times if there is a transcript of Wendy's speech anywhere?  That would make clear what she actually stated.  

Posted (edited)
11 minutes ago, ALarson said:

I completely agree.  I've asked a few times if there is a transcript of Wendy's speech anywhere?  That would make clear what she actually stated.  

I got the impression she was in a personal discussion with JGW and then he shared the numbers publicly, then DN and SLT called and she spoke to them herself.  Likely spoke to her husband as well, he was out there defending her.

This is what she commented (see on page 2 for the link in Smac's? post):

Quote

The number was released by John Gustav-Wrathall, president of Affirmation, in an article he wrote, after I had a conversation with him about it. I had been sitting on the accumulating numbers for weeks. I likely would not have gone public with it, since I had promised privacy to the family members who reached out to me

 

Edited by Calm
Posted (edited)
15 minutes ago, ALarson said:

If that is the case, I  wasn't aware of it (I'm being truthful here).

Do you have past quotes from Wendy that contain fabrications?   I would like to read them, if you do.  Thanks. 

See the comments section in the Times and Seasons blog linked to from one of Smac97's posts. I'm still learning how to do internal links with the new message board software, but I think you'll find his post here.

(Edited to add: Eureka! It worked!)

So I guess there's something on this thread you hadn't seen after all. ;)

Edited by Scott Lloyd
Posted

I haven't listened to the podcast where JGW speaks.  Does he refer at all to the conversation he had with Montgomery where he got the stats from her?

Posted (edited)
29 minutes ago, Scott Lloyd said:

See the comments section in the Times and Seasons blog linked to from one of Smac97's posts. I'm still learning how to do internal links with the new message board software, but I think you'll find his post here.

(Edited to add: Eureka! It worked!)

 

I read that before, but didn't see where there is a quote (by Wendy) that contains a fabrication or lie.  But that's kind of a confusing post, so maybe I missed it.

Edited to add:

This is the only quote I see there by Wendy (and I don't see any fabrications), are there others that you are referring to(?):

Quote

 

The number was released by John Gustav-Wrathall, president of Affirmation, in an article he wrote, after I had a conversation with him about it. I had been sitting on the accumulating numbers for weeks. I likely would not have gone public with it, since I had promised privacy to the family members who reached out to me. But once the number was out there, I answered questions asked of me as best I could without breaking the privacy of those who had lost loved ones. I responded to the Deseret News and the Salt Lake Tribune, which are the articles I posted on my FB wall. Where it spread from there was out of my control. So I would hardly say that “Given the ghoulish way that they are glorying in their claims …” is an accurate statement. How am I glorifying any claims?

I get that it’s hard to wrap one’s head around this. If I hadn’t personally spoken to a family member from each of these cases, I’d have a hard time believing it too. So I’m not upset at the skepticism. I cannot provide you the proof you want. Not only would that be breaking my promise of privacy to the families, I can’t even prove it without a doubt. Unless they sent me autopsy reports or suicide notes (if there was one), I can’t prove it. Which is what I made clear to the Deseret News and SLTrib. They made that clear in their articles as well. I only know what people confided in me. They were deeply grieving and I tried to grieve with them.

 

 

Edited by ALarson
Posted
22 minutes ago, ALarson said:

If that is the case, I  wasn't aware of it (I'm being truthful here).

Do you have past quotes from Wendy that contain fabrications?   I would like to read them, if you do.  Thanks. 

Smac already referenced it on the last page. Her previous claim that Mormons have the highest rate of LGBT suicide is one such example.

Posted (edited)
47 minutes ago, Calm said:

IIRC, in her clarification she stated she definitely told the reporters that the death dates were not verified and that these were just reports.

And yet both DN and SLT connected the suicides with the policy in their discussion and did not approach it as a general result, but one tied to the policy as did the Affirmation individual and her close friend, NH Parker.  It seems there might be a reason for that in her delivery since this mistake was repeated multiple times by people who talked directly with her.

Here is the comment from a page 2 post:

I have only spoken to the Deseret News and the Salt Lake Tribune about this. They sought me out, not the other way around. I was VERY clear with both Tad Walch (DN) and Peggy Fletcher Stack (SLTrib) that my numbers were unverified, that I didn’t have death dates, or all the victim’s names. Sometimes I only had the name of the loved one who reached out to me. I only had their word that what they were saying was true. I only told them in what time frame the emails, FB messages and phone calls came.

For what it's worth, I know Tad Walch well, and he's not the sort to jump to a conclusion like that if a source had been "VERY clear."

For that matter, I have a nodding acquaintance with Peggy, and I wouldn't say that such a thing is typical of her either.

Consider that the news peg of this whole thing is (or was) that the new policy had led to a spike in teen suicides. That's probably what made them jump on the story in the first place. And to be careful to check it out and then to report that the numbers were funny. If an element is that crucial to the story, you don't want to screw it up.

Edited by Scott Lloyd
Posted
5 minutes ago, Mystery Meat said:

Smac already referenced it on the last page. Her previous claim that Mormons have the highest rate of LGBT suicide is one such example.

Do you have the quote?  (I'll look for it too...)

Posted (edited)
31 minutes ago, ALarson said:

I read that before, but didn't see where there is a quote (by Wendy) that contains a fabrication or lie.  But that's kind of a confusing post, so maybe I missed it.

Edited to add:

This is the only quote I see there by Wendy (and I don't see any fabrications), are there others that you are referring to(?):

 

You have to follow the links back from some of the posted comments. Mystery Meat gave an example a couple of posts ago of her claiming Mormons have the highest rate of LGBT suicide.

Edited by Scott Lloyd
Posted
2 minutes ago, Scott Lloyd said:

You have to follow the links back from some of the posted comments. Mystery Meat gave a couple of posts ago of her claiming Mormons have the highest rate of LGBT suicide.

Thanks, Scott.  I'm working my way through it now   

I'm off of here now until tomorrow, but will keep reading :)

Posted

This is the very reason that medical experts do NOT rely on anecdotal testimony/evidence to establish the efficacy of any medication. This lady didn't collect names or dates and then just relayed such info to others .How could she not know its effect? The conspiratorial bone in my body wonders just how hard it would be to call her with some story and have it passed on without any serious verification on her part .

Posted (edited)
51 minutes ago, strappinglad said:

This is the very reason that medical experts do NOT rely on anecdotal testimony/evidence to establish the efficacy of any medication. This lady didn't collect names or dates and then just relayed such info to others .How could she not know its effect? The conspiratorial bone in my body wonders just how hard it would be to call her with some story and have it passed on without any serious verification on her part .

If she hadn't had to justify her use of the fabricated stat (whether it was fabricated by her or someone else) last year, my default position would be to give her the benefit of the doubt way over on the favourable side.  It happens when those without training slide into jobs without really getting the chance to be prepared for them and that she is willing to work for this cause for families and their loved ones is an admirable thing overall so I tend to make major excuses for untrained personnel who are doing charitable work.  However, it appears that she learned no caution from the previous controversy over her reporting unverified high numbers, so my skepticism about her not meaning for the turmoil to occur is heightened.

Edited by Calm
Posted (edited)

See my post for actual stats known.  Her evidence, iirc, for some of the stats she gives is her self report of her personal discussions with the professionals and families.  But as I recall it, she just gives the 'Mormon gay youth have the highest rate' as a given.

For example:

Quote

From some of the LGBT centers and homeless shelters in Utah, we can track many of the suicides and the homeless rates.

Quote

But the homeless shelters out there track these statistics as closely as they can

This link has been posted before, but it is a good examination of the actual stats out there for when she made the comment, her husband even showed up to take part to defend her claims:

http://virtuoussociety.com/2015/01/26/re-examining-gay-mormon-youth-and-suicide-what-does-the-data-say/

Best to read the whole post, but for those who don't follow links here is what I would say was essential:

Quote

 

Much of the interest in Mormons and teen suicide seems to originate from a 2006 article in the Deseret News, a newspaper owned by The Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-day Saints. The article pointed out a few statistics about suicide that would have been surprising to most readers at the time. First, that Utah had the highest rate of suicide among males age 15-24. Second, that Utah had the 11th highest overall suicide rate in the United States. And third, that the youth suicide rate in Utah had tripled over the preceding half-century (in fact, this is true across the United States). The newspaper didn’t cite its sources, but all of the categories of statistics they refer to are available through the CDC and other federal sources and appear to be genuine.

What else do we know? The data in that report is now nine years old, so it’s worth taking stock of the current reality. I’ve collected a set of more recent figures below, from public data and representative surveys:

  • Utah’s suicide rate among people age 15-24 is 9th highest in the United States, among 47 states with reliable data (CDC, 2013)
  • Utah’s suicide rate among males age 15-24 is 7th highest, among 46 states with reliable data (CDC, 2013)
  • Utah’s suicide rate among females age 15-24 cannot be reported as the number of cases is smaller than 20 (CDC, 2013)
  • Utah’s overall suicide rate is 5th highest in the United States (CDC, 2013)
  • Utah is 29th out of 40 states with available data for the rate of high school students who have attempted suicide (not completed suicide) (CDC, 2013)
  • Suicide is the second leading cause of death for Utahns age 10-17. (Utah Department of Health, 2012)
  • Across 9 sites surveyed (all in the Midwestern or Eastern US and California), lesbian and gay high school students had a rate of attempted suicide that was approximately 4 times higher than for straight students (CDC, 2011)
  • A representative survey of students in Grades 7-12 across the US using the Add-Health database found that Mormon gay teens reported significantly less depression and fewer suicidal thoughts than their nonreligious peers. (Add-Health, 2010)
  • The same survey found that religious gay teens had a lower attempted suicide rate than nonreligious gay teens (the number of cases did not allow for statistical significance, however).   [Update: These last two statistics came via an author and are unpublished. I have not been able to independently verify them, as I don’t have access to most of the Add-Health dataset. Take with a grain of salt! Thanks to Mike in the comments section for doing some digging!]

The following are additional relevant results from a small non-representative 2009 survey conducted by the Family Acceptance Project and affiliated researchers, included at the suggestion of commenters below.

  • Gay youth who experienced high levels of family rejection were 3.4 times as likely to attempt suicide, 2.8 times as likely to experience depression, and 1.7 times as likely to use illicit drugs than gay youth who experienced low levels of rejection. Note: Unfortunately, the researchers who wrote the original journal article misinterpreted odds ratio as relative risks, and accordingly reported higher numbers for the foregoing statistics (specifically 8, 6 and 3 times instead of the above figures). This appears to be a good faith error–misinterpretation of the odds ratio (a very unintuitive statistic) is extremely common, even among researchers. The journal article is restricted, but available here to those with institutional access. General information about misinterpreting odds ratios is here.

To the best of my knowledge, these statistics are the closest we can come to answering the statistical questions surrounding gay teen suicide among Mormons, or within Utah. Specifically targeted data on completed or attempted suicide among gay Mormon teens simply isn’t available.

The data speak well enough for themselves, but it’s worth pointing out that none of the relevant data points appear to justify an unusual suspicion about Utah (or, by extension, Mormons). This is especially true since the surprisingly strong link between high altitude and suicide rates has become well established. Among high-altitude states in the Rocky Mountain West, Utah appears to have overall rates within the average range, and youth rates slightly lower than the average. We have no empirical data specific to Utah for gay and lesbian youth, but we can assume that like other states, the rate of attempted suicide, and presumably completed suicide, is considerably higher than for straight youth.

It’s also worth noting that Utah’s overall suicide rate has increased relative to other states since 2006, while its youth suicide rate has fallen in comparison to other states. Furthermore, the Add-Health dataset mentioned above suggests that Mormon gay youth are relatively less at risk for suicide than nonreligious gay youth. [Update – I haven’t been able to independently verify this. See above.]

 

Glad to see the light gray formatting held up.  These are stats he got from one source that he sees as credible, but has not been able to independently verify so it is best not to use them imo in discussions in general.  If you feel the need, I would suggest to use them as 'there may be some indications that...., but we need more info to be sure' kind of thing.

Edited by Calm
Posted
7 hours ago, ALarson said:

I read that before, but didn't see where there is a quote (by Wendy) that contains a fabrication or lie.  But that's kind of a confusing post, so maybe I missed it.

Edited to add:

This is the only quote I see there by Wendy (and I don't see any fabrications), are there others that you are referring to(?):

 

Yes, she's grieving with them, etc. That's nice, but we're left with the question: what story do the numbers tell? And what are the real numbers, anyway?

Posted
On 2/4/2016 at 4:01 PM, Nevo said:

If it turns out that no LDS youth killed themselves as a result of the policy change, then we should all be relieved and grateful.

Even if it has happened, it is not a reason to change the policy or a problem with the policy.  The Church can't be held hostage to any group of whom individuals of that group that might consider suicide based on the decisions of the Church. 

Posted
On 2/4/2016 at 2:49 PM, smac97 said:

Here: "Young, gay Mormons and suicide: The Salt Lake Tribune tries to do the real numbers" by Julia Duin.

Some excerpts;

...

Quote

The lack of proof [pertaining to an increase in teen suicides] didn't matter to advocacy publications such as the Advocate, which ran with Montgomery’s claims nevertheless. So did Teen Vogue. They went with a story they believed to be true because, logically, it must be true, right?

These aren't the only news outlets that "ran with it":

So the natural and expected result of Wendy Montgomery publishing horrendous (and now all but falsified) data about teen suicides was . . . vilification of the LDS Church and its leaders and members and doctrines.  Trying (and, it appears to some extent, succeeding) to make the Church and its beliefs and adherents look bad.

I just wanted to drop a note and advise that Wendy Montgomery's apparently fabricated and falsified statistics are still being quoted in news outlets.

  • Slate (Published on February 8, 2016): Under the title "The Mormon Church Issued New Punishments for Gays. Then the Suicides Began": "Wendy Montgomery, a Mormon mom who has a gay son and works with the Family Acceptance Project at San Francisco State University, believes that at least 32 gay Mormon youths have killed themselves since the announcement of the new policy."

The article then interviews a representative of The Mama Dragons.  Not only is there no correction or retraction, this representative is treating the statistic as an established fact ("Hancock" is the journalist and "Oviatt" is the MD representative):

Quote

Your group drew a hailstorm of media attention after Wendy Montgomery claimed that the new policy had spurred 32 suicides. How did she come up with that number?

Oviatt: Wendy works with the Family Acceptance Project at San Francisco State University. It’s a best-practices initiative that helps families with gay children. The project made a documentary film featuring Wendy and her family, and she quickly became the face of Mama Dragons. Since then, a lot of people have contacted her with their personal stories. She has been contacted numerous times since the new policy about a young gay family member who committed suicide, and she decided to start keeping track of the stories she heard. There’s an underground information circuit about the situation, because there’s so much shame and stigma around suicide, especially in Mormonism, which says suicide is akin to murder.

What has the reaction been to Montgomery’s report?

Oviatt: Within our community of activists, people are glad that we’ve pushed this issue to the forefront so we can start talking about it. There’s also a lot of concern within the LGBT Mormon community about the idea of suicide contagion, though, which we totally understand—it’s a double-edged sword. We don’t want to induce despair or make people feel like they’ll just be another statistic. We’re pushing the educational piece of it now. The Family Acceptance Project is disseminating information so families know how to prevent these things from happening.

Hancock: Many outside Mama Dragons have criticized us harshly for releasing these numbers. But I see it as a springboard to raise awareness of the bigger discussion that should be going on about suicide awareness and prevention. Nobody wanted to see the reality of what’s going on

So truth doesn't matter.  The ends justify the means.  

  • Gay Star News (published on February 8, 2016): Under the title "How the Mormon Church can (and will) overturn its new policy and embrace LGBTIs," Mitch Mayne weighs in.  I find it interesting that he goes to such lengths to bolster his credentials.  He's essentially misleading his readership in few material respects:
Quote

 

I’m not your typical gay man – but I’m also not your typical Mormon.

From 2011 to 2013, I served as executive secretary in the bishopric of my home congregation in San Francisco as my authentic self – an openly gay man.

...

Mitch Mayne is an openly gay, active Latter-day Saint (Mormon), and from 2011 to 2013 served as the executive secretary in the bishopric (ecclesiastical leadership) of the LDS Church in San Francisco. He is now a national voice on Mormon LGBT issues, and promotes bridge-building between the Mormon and the LGBT communities.

 

This is misleading in a few ways.  First, him being called as an executive secretary has nothing to do with the merits of his argument.  It's a classically fallacious appeal to authority.

Second, executive secretaries are not "in the bishopric."  They do not hold those keys.  They do not need to be High Priests (unlike members of a bishopric, who do).  They have no voice in bishopric decisions (although our bishop occasionally invites our ward's executive secretary and ward clerk to chime in on some issues during their bishopric meetings).  They cannot preside in a meeting where a bishopric member is supposed to.  They cannot set people apart in callings.  They cannot count tithing.  They do not participate in disciplinary proceedings.  They do not perform temple recommend interviews.  They are not in the bishopric.  It is simply false for him to declare otherwise.

Finally, I think "openly gay" is rather ambiguous.  If "openly gay" means "open about having a same-sex orientation, but adhering to The Law of Chastity and its prohibition against homosexual conduct," then I'd be fine with it.  But I think the audience of "Gay Star News" probably doesn't take "openly gay" to mean that.  

Anyway, here's what Mitch Mayne has to say (hyperlinks omitted) (emphasis added):

Quote

Local congregations, from Seattle to Boston, had begun to emulate what was started in the San Francisco Bay Area, where we welcomed all members – including LGBT individuals who were dating, married, single or anywhere in between – just as they are.

While there was much to be done, change – massive change – had begun.

But that took an abrupt turn in November of last year, when the church announced a new policy making apostates (people who renounced or abandoned their belief) of any LGBTI individual married to someone of the same gender.

It also barred children of LGBTI individuals from certain saving rites (like baptism) until they turned 18 years of age, and only then if they openly disavowed their parent’s relationship.

If that wasn’t bad enough, in January this year, a talk given by Russell M. Nelson, president of the Quorum of the Twelve Apostles and next in line to be prophet and president of the entire church, pronounced the administrative policy a revelation from God, elevating it to near doctrinal status.

Equally troubling was Elder Nelson’s sanitized chronology of how the policy, dubbed the exclusion policy on social media, came to be in the first place.

His account varies wildly from that of half-dozen or so other high ranking members of church leadership.
...
The damage from the short-sighted policy has already been swift and deep, and gone beyond pitting parents against their own children.

It’s now being reported the policy may be linked to the suicides of over 30 LGBTI youth since it was announced.

While it’s impossible to know whether the new policy triggered the suicides of these LGBTI kids, the circumstantial evidence can’t be ignored.

...
If there’s any silver lining here, it’s that this policy is probably doing more to spawn the next generation of LGBTI allies inside the Mormon Church than any grass roots initiative we could have created.

In fact, my personal email box is overflowing with devout Mormons who didn’t even originally support marriage equality, but who now think completely differently about what it means to be gay. And most of them aren’t shy about speaking out.

In time, the institutional church will catch up with the membership and find its way out of this bigoted mess – much the same way it found its way out of the racist mess it made of the issue of granting the Priesthood to black men of African descent back in the 1960s and 70s.

...

If we do not change, we will lose generations of committed Mormons (and not just the LGBTI ones), and wither into a faded, obscure religion of bigots and extremists.

There will no longer be a temple on Temple Hill; there will instead be a museum of a religion that once was.

But I don’t think our Savior is quite done with us yet.

This, just like our involvement in Proposition 8, will likely go down in history as among the most un-Christlike things we have ever done as a religion.

Lovely stuff.

  • The Washington Blade (published on February 5, 2016): Under the title "Moms of Mormon gays track teen suicides": "Montgomery reports that since the LDS church policy was announced, calling gay LDS couples apostates and banning their children from baptism until they are adults and denounce gay marriage, 34 LDS/LGBT youth between the ages of 14 and 20, have committed suicide. She said 28 of those suicides happened in Utah."  And this: "'I think it’s important that we realize the shame and hurt we are putting on the gay community as members of the church,' Jill Hazard Rowe, a Mama Dragon, who lives in Utah, told KUTV. She is Mormon and has a gay son."

No hint of a retraction.  No qualification or clarification.

I'm thinking of sending all of these links to The Mama Dragons and asking them to contact these outlets with the "clarifications" which have been issued by Wendy Montgomery.  I'd like to give this group a chance to do the right thing.  To be on the right side of history. ;)

Thanks,

-Smac

Posted
On 2/5/2016 at 4:16 PM, strappinglad said:
29 minutes ago, smac97 said:

 

 

Please disregard this post. The quote function with the new board software is giving me fits. I'll be forthcoming very soon with another post.

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