LDS Membership Numbers

[Robert F. Smith]

4 hours ago, hope_for_things said:

I too would like to see this data in a graphical format, that could really help to see the trends.  

For California, why do you say its experiencing a strong out-migration?  I did a couple google searches on historical population data and I'm not seeing that same trend.  The growth seems to have slowed somewhat in recent years, but there isn't an out-migration.  Unless you're talking about Mormons specifically migrating out of California.  If so, do you have any other data to support that idea?  ..................................

See Brian Uhler and Justin Garosi, "California Losing Residents Via Domestic Migration," California Economy & Taxes, Feb 21, 2018, online at   http://lao.ca.gov/LAOEconTax/Article/Detail/265 ,

Quote

For many years, more people have been leaving California for other states than have been moving here. According to data from the American Community Survey, from 2007 to 2016, about 5 million people moved to California from other states, while about 6 million left California. On net, the state lost 1 million residents to domestic migration—about 2.5 percent of its total population.  * * * * 

Although California generally has been losing residents to the rest of the country, movement between California and some states deviates from this pattern.  * * * 

Migration among certain demographic groups also differs from the state’s general pattern. Although California has had net out-migration among most demographic groups, it has gained among those with higher incomes ($110,000 per year or more) and higher levels of education (graduate degrees). * * * *

Families with kids and those with only a high school education predominate among those moving from California to its top destination states (Texas, Arizona, and Nevada). College-educated 18 to 35 year olds led the way among those moving to California from its top feeder states (New York, Illinois, and New Jersey). * * *

 http://lao.ca.gov/LAOEconTax/Article/Detail/265 .

• Demographics and Economic Analysis. Demographic change plays a major role in driving economic trends. As we at the LAO develop our own economic and tax revenue estimates, our process always begins with analysis of key population trends in California. In our recent Fiscal Outlook, we noted our projection that California's population will grow by 0.4 percent to 0.8 percent per year over the next several years.
• California is Aging. With the aging of the massive Baby Boom generation, California is now in a period when older age groups will became much larger, as shown above. At the same time, younger age groups will become smaller, in part due to recent historically low fertility rates among California women.
• California's New Hispanic Plurality. We project that Hispanic Californians will become a plurality of the state's population (exceeding the number of non-Hispanic whites) at some point during the 2010s. The state's Department of Finance (DOF) announced in 2013 that this would occur in 2014, according to their projections. As a result of all of these trends, DOF noted last year that a smaller portion of the working-age population will be white and larger portions Hispanic and Asian-American in the coming decades.
• Still, California is A Young State. According to DOF projections, "California will remain one of the younger states in the Union for the next 20 years." Because of "California's diversity and because of its role as the primary gateway state for immigration, California will not age as rapidly in the coming 20 years as many other states," DOF said.  http://lao.ca.gov/LAOEconTax/Article/Detail/6 .

In migration and out migration figures are separate from the birth-rate figures, and that accounts for your overall growth of the California population.  My own personal experience as a native Californian, is that we have lost many LDS members in California to out  migration (half my ward in L.A. moved to Utah, including the bishop and the stake patriarch -- who was a  member of my ward).  Very complex demographic changes are taking place.

[hope_for_things]

2 hours ago, ksfisher said:

4 hours ago, hope_for_things said:

I sure do wish the church would report its active membership numbers.  The way they count members is so flawed, we can't get clear picture of the health of the church from an active participant perspective

When the church is reporting membership numbers, it is doing just that: reporting how many members the church has on record, regardless off activity.  The number doesn't claim to be more or less than what it is, membership.

I'm familiar with the current definition.  Its not very helpful to understand activity rates, which would be a much better guage on the health of the organization.  Some of the problems with the current metric is the way they count babies blessed, as well as continuing to count people until they reach the age of 110.  Doesn't tell us much about actual attending members.  Tithing revenue would be another helpful metric.  

[jkwilliams]

Just now, hope_for_things said:

I'm familiar with the current definition.  Its not very helpful to understand activity rates, which would be a much better guage on the health of the organization.  Some of the problems with the current metric is the way they count babies blessed, as well as continuing to count people until they reach the age of 110.  Doesn't tell us much about actual attending members.  Tithing revenue would be another helpful metric.  

Probably the best barometer of the church's activity rate and health is the members per congregation. A rising number of members per congregation means activity levels are decreasing. As Thinking has shown, it's not hard to calculate that number.

[hope_for_things]

26 minutes ago, ksfisher said:

While there is a count taken during sacrament meeting, no one is taking roll.  So the church knows that 100 people attended sacrament meeting in Ward X on a certain date, which specific members those are are not tracked.  While local leaders "know" who is active and who isn't, it is not something that can be pulled up on a report.

Thats a good point, its a count that would include visitors as well.  

[ksfisher]

1 minute ago, hope_for_things said:

I'm familiar with the current definition.  Its not very helpful to understand activity rates, which would be a much better guage on the health of the organization.  Some of the problems with the current metric is the way they count babies blessed, as well as continuing to count people until they reach the age of 110.  Doesn't tell us much about actual attending members.  Tithing revenue would be another helpful metric.  

What would you do with all this info if you had it?  Local leaders have it.  General authorities have it.  Programs and messages can be adjusted at both the local and general level based on this information.  What would you do with it?

[hope_for_things]

16 minutes ago, jkwilliams said:

Probably the best barometer of the church's activity rate and health is the members per congregation. A rising number of members per congregation means activity levels are decreasing. As Thinking has shown, it's not hard to calculate that number.

Its something to consider, but that number can be arbitrarily increased by consolidating congregations or not creating new ones when membership increases.  Thats why I still think some kind of active members number would be a better barometer.  

[hope_for_things]

15 minutes ago, ksfisher said:

What would you do with all this info if you had it?  Local leaders have it.  General authorities have it.  Programs and messages can be adjusted at both the local and general level based on this information.  What would you do with it?

I'd probably start a new thread on MDDB and have a discussion.  

[hope_for_things]

30 minutes ago, Robert F. Smith said:

See Brian Uhler and Justin Garosi, "California Losing Residents Via Domestic Migration," California Economy & Taxes, Feb 21, 2018, online at   http://lao.ca.gov/LAOEconTax/Article/Detail/265 ,

In migration and out migration figures are separate from the birth-rate figures, and that accounts for your overall growth of the California population.  My own personal experience as a native Californian, is that we have lost many LDS members in California to out  migration (half my ward in L.A. moved to Utah, including the bishop and the stake patriarch -- who was a  member of my ward).  Very complex demographic changes are taking place.

Thanks that is interesting.  Its amazing how the demographics of California have changed in the past 100 years.  

[jkwilliams]

10 minutes ago, hope_for_things said:

Its something to consider, but that number can be arbitrarily increased by consolidating congregations or not creating new ones when membership increases.  Thats why I still think some kind of active members number would be a better barometer.  

Generally, however, that number reflects how many people a given congregation needs to staff its priesthood and auxiliaries. Consolidation and creating new ones tend to follow staffing needs (I've never heard of an arbitrary change). A ward with too many people who are not being used in a calling is likely to split. A ward with not enough people for staffing is going to be consolidated. As far as I am concerned members per unit is the most accurate measure of the church's health.

Edited June 20, 2018 by jkwilliams

[ksfisher]

16 minutes ago, hope_for_things said:

I'd probably start a new thread on MDDB and have a discussion.  

Probably true.

I just think that if I had all that info for, say, all the units in South America, I don't think I understand local conditions enough in that area to be able to properly contextualize it.  I understand the strengths and challenges of my ward and my stake, but I have no idea of the challenges faced by members in Russian or Africa. 

[mnn727]

4 hours ago, CA Steve said:

 I hope your surgeries went well.

Thanks, Its been a long road to recovery, but I'm finally starting to walk without a cane and I was able to attend all 3 hours for the first time last Sunday - true they brought in a different chair from the lobby for me in Priesthood as I still can't hack the folding chairs for longer that 15-20 minutes, but I made it through.

[jkwilliams]

Just now, mnn727 said:

Thanks, Its been a long road to recovery, but I'm finally starting to walk without a cane and I was able to attend all 3 hours for the first time last Sunday - true they brought in a different chair from the lobby for me in Priesthood as I still can't hack the folding chairs for longer that 15-20 minutes, but I made it through.

I was unaware you had surgery. I'm glad you are recovering. 

[clarkgoble]

2 hours ago, jkwilliams said:

Probably the best barometer of the church's activity rate and health is the members per congregation. A rising number of members per congregation means activity levels are decreasing. As Thinking has shown, it's not hard to calculate that number.

I'm not sure that works. Church headquarters seems to go through periods where they like large wards so that all callings are filled and then periods where they like small wards where everyone knows everyone else. Just in my lifetime they've switched the ideal ward size several times with associated merging of wards or at least affecting how they split wards. I'd just not trust members per congregation to tell us much. It's also biased by areas with growth. So where I grew up was initially one small branch but now is five wards. However the stake had quite a few very small branches in various cities as it started growing. It doesn't take many 20-30 member branches to bias your averages. (Especially when we don't have even a standard deviation to look at things)

The Church of course has the data we'd like to have. Things like activity per congregation, data on number of small congregations, and of course knowledge of what the "ideal size" is that year. It's just hard to infer those things from the publicly released data.

 

[jkwilliams]

6 minutes ago, clarkgoble said:

I'm not sure that works. Church headquarters seems to go through periods where they like large wards so that all callings are filled and then periods where they like small wards where everyone knows everyone else. Just in my lifetime they've switched the ideal ward size several times with associated merging of wards or at least affecting how they split wards. I'd just not trust members per congregation to tell us much. It's also biased by areas with growth. So where I grew up was initially one small branch but now is five wards. However the stake had quite a few very small branches in various cities as it started growing. It doesn't take many 20-30 member branches to bias your averages. (Especially when we don't have even a standard deviation to look at things)

The Church of course has the data we'd like to have. Things like activity per congregation, data on number of small congregations, and of course knowledge of what the "ideal size" is that year. It's just hard to infer those things from the publicly released data.

 

I’ll take your word for it. I haven’t seen fluctuations in ward size, but then I don’t go to church often. 

[clarkgoble]

3 hours ago, hope_for_things said:

I'm familiar with the current definition.  Its not very helpful to understand activity rates, which would be a much better guage on the health of the organization.  Some of the problems with the current metric is the way they count babies blessed, as well as continuing to count people until they reach the age of 110.  Doesn't tell us much about actual attending members.  Tithing revenue would be another helpful metric.  

Tithing revenue isn't helpful I think. That said I do think the Church has reasonably good markers that stand in for activity based upon how many people are at Church. You have "froth" due to people who are sick, on vacation or visiting an other ward for blessings or so forth. However over time that tends to even out I suspect. You can also do some degree of sanity checking by looking at temple recommend holders or tithe payers. The former is more useful in these days when there are so many temples. (Back when I was young and temples were frequently 12 hours away many people didn't bother keeping a recommend)

The best data is actually non-Mormon from the various self-identification studies. They of course famously give different numbers even in the US. ARIS gives us 1.4% of the population relatively consistently while Pew gives 1.6% - a not insignificant difference. We just don't have anything like that for other countries - partially due to our population being so much smaller. However in at least first world countries I'd imagine there are ways where the Church could hire a polling company given membership roles to do a survey for how many people are inactive and how many people no longer consider themselves Mormons. It does seem like the past few decades the Church has tried to get people off the roles who aren't Mormon within reason. We have quite a few people in our ward boundaries who don't consider themselves Mormon yet still call the Bishop for help and who the EQ checks up on even if they didn't assign home teachers. (Although that's dated now)

Edited June 20, 2018 by clarkgoble

[ksfisher]

2 minutes ago, clarkgoble said:

It does seem like the past few decades the Church has tried to get people off the roles who aren't Mormon within reason.

I'm not aware of any push by the church to get people off the roles.  What are you seeing?

[clarkgoble]

13 minutes ago, ksfisher said:

I'm not aware of any push by the church to get people off the roles.  What are you seeing?

Every few years there's a push. I've no idea if that's going on now. In the past they incentivized it by tying budgets to activity. I've zero knowledge of what they're doing right now although I've heard of people mentioning getting people off the roles at various times. When I was young in the 80's there were some big pushes to the degree that people were assigned lists of inactives and would try and track them down if they were obviously not members. (i.e. people who were baptized and went inactive after a few months more than 10 years earlier) I remember around 2002 when I was ward hopping a lot due to the issues of being single and newly over 30 that the Church contacted me to figure out what was going on. How much of that was "reactivation" (even though I was completely active) and how much was getting people off the roll I can't say.

It is clear however that comparing self-identification studies in the US with the Church's members of record that lots of people are taken off the role. While the two don't match for various reasons ranging from inactivity to self-identification only surveying adults the relative numbers remain surprisingly similar. I don't have time to find the link but a few years ago I went through the ARIS and Pew numbers comparing them to Church numbers and then attempting to estimate the number of kids from 8-18 that the Church counts but ARIS doesn't. It's over at my old blog Mormon Metaphysics. The problem is that with all the convert baptisms you have the majority not really remain Mormon plus members of record who leave the church. So if the ratio remains relatively stable (with some ups or down) then the only explanation is corrections in the official numbers.

Edited June 20, 2018 by clarkgoble

[mrmarklin]

5 hours ago, hope_for_things said:

I've heard these things before as well.  Its unfortunately impossible to quantify the statistical significance of these kinds of anecdotes.  

On a side note, its interesting that you're experiencing the same phenomena that happened during the last housing bubble.  I hope this isn't a sign of another big collapse, but it sounds eerily similar to last time around.  

We were just talking at lunch today about the bursting of the bubble.  But with the general national economy doing well, the bubble seems a long way off.

There is a lot of money still coming into the area.  Building is booming.  I was in SFO this morning, and there is new construction everywhere making a serious mess out of an already bad traffic situation.

Silicon Valley has created more wealth concentrated in one area since anything ever in the history of the world.  A lot of billionaires live here.  Everything is more expensive, and I believe that San Francisco is the most expensive city in the world by some measures.  A BMW is the Silicon Valley version of the Chevy from days past.  Not noteworthy at all to own one.

Edited June 20, 2018 by mrmarklin
More info.

[Duncan]

6 hours ago, clarkgoble said:

Kind of surprised about polynesian islands. Is that decrease due to people leaving the islands for work? I've known a ton of people here in Utah who were raised in Samoa or Tonga and immigrated when they came of age.

For Alberta there's an easier explanation - the lack of jobs. Southern Alberta around the Cardston area just doesn't have work for people after college. So most people move elsewhere. Throw in the collapse in oil jobs that provided opportunity for people in Alberta from all over Canada and it's hardly surprising the community is shrinking.

Ghana is a bit more surprising although I wonder if that's more akin to Samoa. Again I've met quite a few people from Ghana who have immigrated to Utah.

California is unsurprising and is a trend that goes back a long time with people leaving due to not being able to afford housing. Even if you have a job, having a job that would allow the kind of home near your work and have more than two kids is prohibitive. There's also quality of life issues due to the commute one often has to take for whatever housing you can find. I was offered a job by a large Silicon Valley firm a few years ago that was ridiculously high. Then I looked at quality of life issues due to housing, commute, and quality of schools and turned it down. Even at the salary and bonus they were offering there was no possible way it was worth it.

Cardston is a DUMP of a place, literally the only reason you go there is for the Temple and the DQ. So. Alberta, yeah the kids all bust out of there for Lethbridge, Calgary and E-town. We get some for the cheap schooling. For some reason it's easier to get into a professional school out of province. There is a lot of inactivity in these places as well.

[strappinglad]

30 minutes ago, Duncan said:

Cardston is a DUMP of a place

Here now ! I got relatives there ! Mind you they may be the ones adding to the ambiance .

My town of about 4500 pop. just organized it's tenth ward and is building a new Stake Center as the old one was built in 1939. It is true we export our youth all over Alberta and the US. , but when they return they bring KIDS !

[Thinking]

12 hours ago, Robert F. Smith said:

What was the basis of your selection of those particular areas (states, countries)?  Random, scientific sampling?  Hit and miss?

I didn't use a random number generator or anything like that, but I selected 20 areas from different parts of the world.

12 hours ago, Robert F. Smith said:

I would like to see these figures graphed.  The decreases in some cases are too small to be statistically significant.

If the same decrease (or increase) happens 9 years in a row, it is significant.

12 hours ago, Robert F. Smith said:

In the case of Utah, which is growing quickly in population, St George, Utah, is the fastest growing metropolitan area in America. -- while California is experiencing a strong out-migration.  The demographics need to be looked at far more comprehensively.

I wish I had the time to be that comprehensive.

[Thinking]

9 hours ago, hope_for_things said:

I'm wondering why the California M/C is so much higher than the Utah M/C.  Utah at around 400, and California in the high 500s and hitting 600 on the most recent year.  Since I'm assuming congregation sizes are managed based on activity rates, what do you think this means?  If we assumed that the average number of active members per congregation in Utah and California is 200 people. then could we also deduce from this data that in Utah there are 200 active people for every 400 members of record, but in California there would be 600 members of record for that same 200 active members?  This would essentially mean that California members are significantly less active participants than their Utah counter parts.  Thoughts? 

Generally I believe that a higher M/C means a lower activity rate, but geography may also play a part. My wife's hometown is very small and has a very small ward. Sweden, for example, has the lowest average M/C of the 20 areas that I selected. Since 2008 it has lost 2 congregations and added 735 members. I suspect that some of Sweden's congregations are branches.

[Thinking]

1 hour ago, ksfisher said:

I'm not aware of any push by the church to get people off the roles.  What are you seeing?

My younger brother, who lives in the midwest, was asked to resign. He told them that even though he didn't believe anymore, he wasn't going to resign because he didn't want to cause any hurt feelings with our parents.

[clarkgoble]

1 hour ago, Duncan said:

Cardston is a DUMP of a place, literally the only reason you go there is for the Temple and the DQ. So. Alberta, yeah the kids all bust out of there for Lethbridge, Calgary and E-town. We get some for the cheap schooling. For some reason it's easier to get into a professional school out of province. There is a lot of inactivity in these places as well.

Didn't used to be that bad. But yeah the last 20 years in particular have been really bad for Cardston. There's Lethbridge, as you note (where my brother lives) but from what I'm hearing most people are moving out of province or even to the States. (BYU helps there of course - particularly since there's a high probability of marriage to an American)

Part of the problem with Cardston is that its economy was built around retired people working at the temple. (My parents live near Mountain View and do that) With the Calgary temple people just aren't doing that anymore which has really, really hurt Cardston. 

That said, as strappinglad noted there's still growth in the Stake. I think it's more the rural regions that are losing all the kids of residents. 

 

46 minutes ago, strappinglad said:

Here now ! I got relatives there ! Mind you they may be the ones adding to the ambiance .

My town of about 4500 pop. just organized it's tenth ward and is building a new Stake Center as the old one was built in 1939. It is true we export our youth all over Alberta and the US. , but when they return they bring KIDS !

What town are you in? From what I've seen few people are returning although I hear of a few coming back to take over the family ranch or the like.

 

1 hour ago, mrmarklin said:

We were just talking at lunch today about the bursting of the bubble.  But with the general national economy doing well, the bubble seems a long way off.

There is a lot of money still coming into the area.  Building is booming.  I was in SFO this morning, and there is new construction everywhere making a serious mess out of an already bad traffic situation.

Silicon Valley has created more wealth concentrated in one area since anything ever in the history of the world.  A lot of billionaires live here.  Everything is more expensive, and I believe that San Francisco is the most expensive city in the world by some measures.  A BMW is the Silicon Valley version of the Chevy from days past.  Not noteworthy at all to own one.

Part of the problem though is that Silicon Valley's economy is tied to a few major companies - primarily Google and Apple. Even many startups justify funding by designing themselves to be bought by Apple, Google, or other big companies. But the economy in general seems tied to young single workers (primarily male) who can frankly be somewhat taken advantage of in terms of workload, housing and so forth. For people with families it's deeply problematic which is why both Apple and Google are opening satellite campuses across the country. Apple just expanded a major one in Seattle, taking advantage of the high tech potential employees there. Apple also has major campuses in Austin and Boston. And of course many companies have expanded somewhat into Lehi - although that's not remotely as big as other locations yet. That in turn is making Utah housing costs skyrocket.

Edited June 20, 2018 by clarkgoble

[strappinglad]

I'm from Zion. We have the luck of being only 20 minutes from Lethbridge , a city of about 80,000 , and so we can be a bedroom community and the homes are cheaper than the city.