Church Measures and treands

[clarkgoble]

21 hours ago, stemelbow said:

I did that.  That's what my chart titled Death, Excommunicated, Names Removed is. 

Thanks. I'd missed that. My apologies. My allergies have been pretty bad the past few days. So I've not been thinking as clear as I'd like.

Quote

It's been over 100,000 for the past few years.  Its between 1/3 and 1/2 of converts.  Here's the table if you don't like the chart:

Again thanks. As I mentioned yesterday I'd made a mistake in my quick calculation. Many are about what I expected. I should have thought to do the calculations as a percentage. Glad you did as that is quite informative. There are some surprises though such as the children as a percent of the population. I'd have expected that number to be decreasing instead it's relatively flat (and actually very slightly increasing although that may be an artifact of 2008-2010).

[clarkgoble]

7 hours ago, why me said:

This is true. But the influence of the internet has had an impact with all the negative and critical information about the lds church. Anyone searching the internet would certainly get a shake up.

I think the biggest cause is the age drop. That lack of maturity undoubtedly affects many people. There are of course a lot of young men mature at 18. I wasn't one of them and barely was at 19. Everyone develops at different rates cognitively. If you look at the graph you see a big drop in effectiveness corresponding to the age drop. Without that we'd likely still have a productivity around 5 converts per missionary.

[rockpond]

8 minutes ago, clarkgoble said:

I think the biggest cause is the age drop. That lack of maturity undoubtedly affects many people. There are of course a lot of young men mature at 18. I wasn't one of them and barely was at 19. Everyone develops at different rates cognitively. If you look at the graph you see a big drop in effectiveness corresponding to the age drop. Without that we'd likely still have a productivity around 5 converts per missionary.

It appears that effectiveness (as measured by converts per missionary) decreased with the age drop but if you look at the overall trend of converts per MEMBER it has been on a steady decline and was not impacted by the change in age.  The "surge" just increased the denominator which is why I think it's useful to examine converts per member.  We've been told for a long time now that members drive missionary work, not missionaries.  Looks like it is true.

[rongo]

19 minutes ago, rockpond said:

It appears that effectiveness (as measured by converts per missionary) decreased with the age drop but if you look at the overall trend of converts per MEMBER it has been on a steady decline and was not impacted by the change in age.  The "surge" just increased the denominator which is why I think it's useful to examine converts per member.  We've been told for a long time now that members drive missionary work, not missionaries.  Looks like it is true.

But along with the surge (more young men and women on missions, including ones who wouldn't otherwise have gone) was a shift in what missions mean, at least in North America. it accrued a primary purpose of trying to stop the bleeding of young adults into inactivity. Less missionary work (meaning finding) was done. The mission I live in even piloted a program where the last six months (1/3 of the mission for sisters, 1/4 of the mission for elders) was spent on life skills (interviewing, resumes, cooking, cleaning, etc.) --- obviously with an eye towards post-mission life competency. You are naturally going to have a lot less teaching and converts when you are doing things that are --- not teaching and baptizing. So, I think that has to be factored in.

If some people get what they want, and missions become like Peace Corps, with just service projects and no proselyting, then the drop in convert baptisms will make the recent drop look like an increase. Then, missionaries will be doing almost no finding and a *lot* less teaching. I know that some claim that baptisms will really take off, because people will think it's so cool that our young people are just out serving people, but that's wishful thinking. We will baptize nearly no one if we aren't actively trying to find people who want to be baptized. 

[clarkgoble]

23 minutes ago, rockpond said:

It appears that effectiveness (as measured by converts per missionary) decreased with the age drop but if you look at the overall trend of converts per MEMBER it has been on a steady decline and was not impacted by the change in age.  The "surge" just increased the denominator which is why I think it's useful to examine converts per member.  We've been told for a long time now that members drive missionary work, not missionaries.  Looks like it is true.

Yes, converts in absolute numbers has been relatively constant until recently which means as a percent of the whole it's been dropping. Given the secularization of the US since the mid-90's this isn't unexpected. The US remains one of the biggest places for growth but as the country as a whole becomes less religious that's affecting out numbers. The Church hasn't been able to adjust to Asia well which would have balanced that out somewhat.

[Robert F. Smith]

On 4/3/2017 at 8:11 AM, Gray said:

Thanks for crunching the numbers, Stem. The trend is definitively slower and slower growth. Maybe we've hit peak Mormonism? 

Reminds me of "peak oil," which was supposed to have hit a high, from which there was only a continuous downward trend for the remainder of human history. Made sense to me at the time, then turned out to have been a completely wrong, linear projection.  No one figured on advanced technology -- oil shale and fracking.

[rockpond]

7 minutes ago, rongo said:

But along with the surge (more young men and women on missions, including ones who wouldn't otherwise have gone) was a shift in what missions mean, at least in North America. it accrued a primary purpose of trying to stop the bleeding of young adults into inactivity. Less missionary work (meaning finding) was done. The mission I live in even piloted a program where the last six months (1/3 of the mission for sisters, 1/4 of the mission for elders) was spent on life skills (interviewing, resumes, cooking, cleaning, etc.) --- obviously with an eye towards post-mission life competency. You are naturally going to have a lot less teaching and converts when you are doing things that are --- not teaching and baptizing. So, I think that has to be factored in.

If some people get what they want, and missions become like Peace Corps, with just service projects and no proselyting, then the drop in convert baptisms will make the recent drop look like an increase. Then, missionaries will be doing almost no finding and a *lot* less teaching. I know that some claim that baptisms will really take off, because people will think it's so cool that our young people are just out serving people, but that's wishful thinking. We will baptize nearly no one if we aren't actively trying to find people who want to be baptized. 

Seems like a logical conclusion but we'll have to see how the data pans out over the next few years.  So far, I don't really see the data that supports the idea that younger missionaries are significantly less effective nor that retention work has lowered the conversion rate.

Take a look at the trend chart of converts baptized as a percentage of total church membership.

The surge took effect in 2011 but we don't see a change in the trend until 2015-2016.  Kinda tough to attribute the small drop over the past two years to missionary age, IMO.  It actually looks more like we've been on the same downward trend since 1990 without any significant deviation.

[Robert F. Smith]

On 4/3/2017 at 8:20 AM, Gray said:

I think they should move missionary work to humanitarian work, as that's the greatest good those kids could be doing, and I think you'd get some solid baptisms as a side effect anyway, but that's just me

Except that proselyting is strictly off limits for LDS service missionaries.  Of course the Church could change that restriction.  The Seventh Day Adventists, for example, have long had wide-ranging medical missionaries, and they do not  hold back on proselyting at all.  They also have high quality, advanced seminary training at their Andrews Universtiy in Berrien Springs, Michigan, along with a consortium of other colleges and universities -- http://www.adventistcolleges.org/ .  We could take a closer look at their successes.

[Robert F. Smith]

On 4/3/2017 at 8:34 AM, stemelbow said:

Agreed.  my son is 18 and getting ready to graduate.  He told me of a close friend of his who is a year older.  He went on a mission and left after a couple of months.  The friend said, he just could do it.  he witnessed the lives of the people (he went to Ukraine or Russia, I believe, can't remember which) and couldn't stay there without doing anything.  So he's opted to leave and join a program where he goes to a foreign land and builds, serves and teaches.  This boy's decision has influenced my son.  He might end up doing the same, as it turns out. But he's also still contemplating a mission, so we'll see. 

Something like the Peace Corps, perhaps -- which by the way was actually founded first in 1952 by a Mormon PhD from Harvard, then being termed International Voluntary Services. 

[Robert F. Smith]

23 hours ago, rongo said:

..................................................................   

My parents were both in the mission office in Warsaw and recently came home. They said that it is a night-and-day difference between the 18 year old missionaries and those who waited a year or more. They say that the older missionaries do much better, in their experience. 

This is also true of police officers.  The younger guys have a hard time maintaining their cool.  Just not mature enough to do the job.  A similar difference exists between farm boys and city boys, the latter never really having had serious responsibilities, and so being far more puerile -- a difference I have noticed here in Utah Valley.

[Gray]

2 hours ago, Robert F. Smith said:

Reminds me of "peak oil," which was supposed to have hit a high, from which there was only a continuous downward trend for the remainder of human history. Made sense to me at the time, then turned out to have been a completely wrong, linear projection.  No one figured on advanced technology -- oil shale and fracking.

I guess we need to develop convert fracking technology 

Edited April 4, 2017 by Gray

[clarkgoble]

2 hours ago, rockpond said:

The surge took effect in 2011 but we don't see a change in the trend until 2015-2016.  Kinda tough to attribute the small drop over the past two years to missionary age, IMO.  It actually looks more like we've been on the same downward trend since 1990 without any significant deviation.

Depends upon where you draw the curve. There's a downward trend, but an abrupt drop at the end that hasn't returned to trend.

[carbon dioxide]

On 4/3/2017 at 8:20 AM, Gray said:

I think they should move missionary work to humanitarian work, as that's the greatest good those kids could be doing, and I think you'd get some solid baptisms as a side effect anyway, but that's just me

The counter to that would be that one could just join the peace corps and not have to deal with all the regular mission rules and still accomplish the same thing.

[HappyJackWagon]

4 minutes ago, carbon dioxide said:

The counter to that would be that one could just join the peace corps and not have to deal with all the regular mission rules and still accomplish the same thing.

Perhaps if the peace corps worked that way. My understanding is that the Peace Corps is fairly selective and require a bachelors degree which would generally mean a person would be older before joining.

[clarkgoble]

2 minutes ago, HappyJackWagon said:

Perhaps if the peace corps worked that way. My understanding is that the Peace Corps is fairly selective and require a bachelors degree which would generally mean a person would be older before joining.

I've had friends in the peace corp as well as doing volunteer work in NGOs. One thing they noted is that most of these organizations have far too many people willing to volunteer and not enough willing to give money. My friends who wanted to do those things often found it was hard to find one that would really let them go to these countries. There are exceptions of course for people with particular skills like doctors. But if you're a high school kid just looking to volunteer you're better off just finding a local charity.

[Calm]

1 hour ago, clarkgoble said:

I've had friends in the peace corp as well as doing volunteer work in NGOs. One thing they noted is that most of these organizations have far too many people willing to volunteer and not enough willing to give money. My friends who wanted to do those things often found it was hard to find one that would really let them go to these countries. There are exceptions of course for people with particular skills like doctors. But if you're a high school kid just looking to volunteer you're better off just finding a local charity.

It seems to me that quite a few want to use these charities as a cheap way to see the world or at least something different from what they are used to.

I wonder how many have volunteered at local soup kitchens or who are willing to do so when rejected.

Edited April 5, 2017 by Calm

[clarkgoble]

10 minutes ago, Calm said:

It seems to me that quite a few want to use these charities as a cheap way to see the world or at least something different from what they are used to.

I wonder how many have volunteered at local soup kitchens or who are willing to do so when rejected.

Most soup kitchens I've volunteered at had long waiting lists to be able to volunteer. They actually often had more food than they could give out. However they were usually chronically short of money and then basic supplies like diapers, feminine products, toothbrushes, toothpaste etc. A tip for everyone donating.

Again there are many places one can volunteer. But I suspect even in the US the trick is finding the resources people need more than volunteers to hand them out. That may vary a lot regionally though.

However as we see with say good Eagle Scout Projects, there's always work to be done. Just find an area with trash and/or vandalism and clean it up. Or go get the type of groceries soup kitchens value but often don't get enough of (peanut butter in particular). Often the country government has resources they use for meals on wheels, soup kitchens or other such things. A visit can almost certainly find projects one can help with.

If you don't want to do it locally then there again are no shortage of places in America in pain. There's a lot one could do if one wants to move there.

Edited April 5, 2017 by clarkgoble

[Calm]

I have just volunteered up in Canada, so not familiar with the status down here for the past couple of decades.

This is why I love the Just Serve program.

Giving money is easier, but probably less emotionally satisfying.

Edited April 5, 2017 by Calm

[Rain]

In our area with Just Serve there is an abundance of organizations that ask for donations - socks, food, blankets etc. I would guess most area are like this.

There are also a lot of ways to serve. One of the problems with the service is that many of the organizations want someone in the day time.  That cuts out a lot of working people, but if a young person is looking for something to do in another country like the peace core then these things might be great alternatives.

Another problem we have found is that many people want to serve in ways the organizations don't need,  but don't want to serve in the way they do need.  They get in their mind that they want to work in a soup kitchen, but what that organization really needs is for someone to sort clothes.  

There are generally a lot of ways you can serve.  Most of the time people don't know about them or just want to do it the way they want to do it. 

[Tacenda]

changed mind

Edited April 6, 2017 by Tacenda