rongo Posted October 5, 2017 Posted October 5, 2017 11 hours ago, blueglass said: I definitely consider this talk a bona fide prophecy. He's giving 7 years to get your houses in order pay off debt, don't get the 2nd mortgage, prepare for loss of income, etc. Even now Canada is still in a huge bubble, germany has still not capped there banks like the US has, Japan is way beyond the Keynesian end point in credit leverage over gdp and China is a ticking time bomb of debt. Our banks are doing the same things they were back then; they didn't learn anything. They are lending again when it's clear people won't be able to repay without perpetually refinancing. My first counselor in another ward managed the state retirement fund (JD and an MBA). Something like $6 billion he was responsible for, and he traveled the world for his job and met with financial leaders. In talking to him, he said that when this crashes, it will put the world back into the cart-and-horse era. This surprised me, because finance-types are usually not prone to doomsday scenarios. He said that the big worldwide crash of this house of cards will obliterate borders and lead to a complete reshuffling of governments and alliances. This alone would fulfill prophecies and put things in a position much closer to the "winding up scene," when it happens. 1
blueglass Posted October 5, 2017 Posted October 5, 2017 39 minutes ago, rongo said: Our banks are doing the same things they were back then; they didn't learn anything. They are lending again when it's clear people won't be able to repay without perpetually refinancing. My first counselor in another ward managed the state retirement fund (JD and an MBA). Something like $6 billion he was responsible for, and he traveled the world for his job and met with financial leaders. In talking to him, he said that when this crashes, it will put the world back into the cart-and-horse era. This surprised me, because finance-types are usually not prone to doomsday scenarios. He said that the big worldwide crash of this house of cards will obliterate borders and lead to a complete reshuffling of governments and alliances. This alone would fulfill prophecies and put things in a position much closer to the "winding up scene," when it happens. Uh oh that's not good. The banks are passing the stress tests http://money.cnn.com/2017/06/28/news/economy/fed-stress-test-wall-street-results/index.html, I think this was what Hinckley was referring to in 1998, he was encouraging us to run our family economics through stress tests to get a gauge on strength in the face of black swan fragility (Taleb).
Pete Ahlstrom Posted October 5, 2017 Posted October 5, 2017 37 minutes ago, rongo said: Our banks are doing the same things they were back then; they didn't learn anything. They are lending again when it's clear people won't be able to repay without perpetually refinancing. My first counselor in another ward managed the state retirement fund (JD and an MBA). Something like $6 billion he was responsible for, and he traveled the world for his job and met with financial leaders. In talking to him, he said that when this crashes, it will put the world back into the cart-and-horse era. This surprised me, because finance-types are usually not prone to doomsday scenarios. He said that the big worldwide crash of this house of cards will obliterate borders and lead to a complete reshuffling of governments and alliances. This alone would fulfill prophecies and put things in a position much closer to the "winding up scene," when it happens. The financial system does seem to be teetering on a total collapse and some of the scenarios by financial pundits are certainly alarming. However, as far as the end of the world, prophecies of the end have been made since the New Testament times and haven't come to pass. People in those times thought it was around the corner too. Also, in the D&C, Jesus is perpetually coming quickly, whatever that means. On the contrary, E. Packer said in a conference talk a few years ago that we would live to see our grandchildren and some, great-grandchildren being born. So, what can we make of all these disparate so-called prophecies? It seems confusing.
rongo Posted October 5, 2017 Posted October 5, 2017 9 minutes ago, Pete Ahlstrom said: The financial system does seem to be teetering on a total collapse and some of the scenarios by financial pundits are certainly alarming. However, as far as the end of the world, prophecies of the end have been made since the New Testament times and haven't come to pass. People in those times thought it was around the corner too. Also, in the D&C, Jesus is perpetually coming quickly, whatever that means. On the contrary, E. Packer said in a conference talk a few years ago that we would live to see our grandchildren and some, great-grandchildren being born. So, what can we make of all these disparate so-called prophecies? It seems confusing. That's the danger. Because it's been 2000+ years, I think a lot of people who claim to believe don't really believe that it will ever really happen. Not really --- and certainly not within several decades or their lifetime (or their children's lifetime). If it's actually going to ever happen (sometime), then there will be a certain generation or generations that will experience it. If it isn't, then there won't be, and the Church in 2717 will be doing . . . what?. I agree that we know that we still have time. My children's patriarchal blessings all reference their children and grandchildren, so we're not sitting in a bunker waiting. There will be great and marvelous opportunities and experiences. But, I'm also not one of those people that doesn't really think that the prophecies won't be literally and concretely fulfilled, either. And, I think things are certainly accelerating, with signs on the horizon that we could be closer than I think most now think.
rongo Posted October 5, 2017 Posted October 5, 2017 19 minutes ago, blueglass said: Uh oh that's not good. The banks are passing the stress tests http://money.cnn.com/2017/06/28/news/economy/fed-stress-test-wall-street-results/index.html, I think this was what Hinckley was referring to in 1998, he was encouraging us to run our family economics through stress tests to get a gauge on strength in the face of black swan fragility (Taleb). Somehow, the Fed saying that all banks are passing the stress tests isn't a huge comfort to me. 3
mfbukowski Posted October 5, 2017 Posted October 5, 2017 (edited) 4 hours ago, rongo said: I was there at that talk with my father-in-law (who very much needed to listen and take it to heart, but it was in one ear and out the other). You're the one trying to make this a "lying" showdown. blueglass gave this as a wonderful example of prophecy, not as a lie (thanks, blueglass!). Despite President Hinckley saying he wasn't prophesying, the crash happened seven years after his talk. I remember telling my wife after the priesthood session what a wonderful feeling and experience it was. And then, seven years later, we were dealing with the carnage of the crash in my ward. My town, which had sprung up from 3000 to 50000 in the seven years, became half-empty. The pain of this time brought back President Hinckley's prophecy vividly to mind. He was most certainly prophesying, even though he said he wasn't. To me, this shows his timidness in wanting to be careful (akin to his interviews/statements on the Snow couplet). It brings to mind President Packer's statement (in a stake conference we had) that we are too afraid to prophesy, and play it safe. Prophesy, and leave it up to God to fulfill it! 1998 to 2005 sure looks like 7 years to me. And it looks like the all powerful Wisdom of Wikipedia agrees. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Timeline_of_the_United_States_housing_bubble Quote Housing prices peaked in early 2005, began declining in 2006 (see also United States housing market correction). I was there, I saw it all. FNMA changed the guidelines allowing anyone to get a loan and my buddies got rich buying anything in sight with fake and marginal buyers. In 1992 Barney Frank decided it was wisdom to make it so that anyone could buy a house without essentially being qualified. Everyone jumped on board from the mortgage brokers to wall street in turning those junk loans into "securities" by slicing the tranches so thin they were essentially cherry picking the best loans. I worked in a company helping to create a model for loan securitization in 1995 and the market was wide open. Basically there were unreliable guidelines for what kind of quality loans should be pooled for securitization, so all the junk was going into the pile with the good stuff. Whatever floated to the top was picked for the highest paying securities. http://www.investopedia.com/terms/t/tranches.asp So for the best return you invest in say slice (tranche) A - which was supposed to be the most qualified borrowers- when in fact the qualification levels had degraded to the point where the difference between tranche A and tranche F was marginal in reality. https://www.theatlantic.com/business/archive/2011/12/hey-barney-frank-the-government-did-cause-the-housing-crisis/249903/ Real Estate investors went wacko- you could buy anything for nothing and anyone with a few bucks did exactly that. We saw it coming- I knew President H was exactly right when he said that in 1998. This is what happens when government gets involved and doesn't let the markets heal themselves. And President H pegged it perfectly. 2005 the market peaked and started to fall back and by 2007 it was all over. The house of cards fell, and the smart RE investors were waiting for it and bought AFTER the bubble and now are sitting pretty. Time again to take profits as in every 10 year cycle. Look out when rates go up for real. Edited October 5, 2017 by mfbukowski
mfbukowski Posted October 5, 2017 Posted October 5, 2017 3 hours ago, rongo said: Somehow, the Fed saying that all banks are passing the stress tests isn't a huge comfort to me. As I mentioned above, the issue is the quality of the underlying information in the "tests" There are no facts, only interpretations. Figure it out- who does the interpreting of the alleged "facts"? "Numbers are numbers"- no they are not when the wealth of millions hang on the interpretation. Why is the market going up when it should not be?? (ducking for cover) 2
mfbukowski Posted October 5, 2017 Posted October 5, 2017 (edited) 3 hours ago, Pete Ahlstrom said: The financial system does seem to be teetering on a total collapse and some of the scenarios by financial pundits are certainly alarming. However, as far as the end of the world, prophecies of the end have been made since the New Testament times and haven't come to pass. People in those times thought it was around the corner too. Also, in the D&C, Jesus is perpetually coming quickly, whatever that means. On the contrary, E. Packer said in a conference talk a few years ago that we would live to see our grandchildren and some, great-grandchildren being born. So, what can we make of all these disparate so-called prophecies? It seems confusing. Really poor logic. Yes there is a bubble and yes there will be a correction- but to apply this to the end of the world? Seriously? To see a market correction as a fault in prophecies of the end of the world?? YOU are the only one confused. It is your INTERPRETATION that is at fault. So if the market changes and the END does not come- it is the fault of the prophet? P L E A S E! Edited October 5, 2017 by mfbukowski
rockpond Posted October 5, 2017 Posted October 5, 2017 4 hours ago, CV75 said: What does the First Presidency and Quorum of the Twelve do "to try to keep membership in the stage of believing literally," for example, in relation to the temple rites? Or in relation to the resurrected Christ? In relation to parables and their lessons? I think looking at how they testily and teach of these subjects in General Conference would be a strong indicator. Where is their testimony and instruction of a literal belief, or of symbolic and figurative things, proving to be a retardant to the saints' spiritual development according to any cognitive/moral scale? Edit: Just came across these examples. Where do you see in these most recent teachings (including the additional Youth and Children comments to the First Presidency Message) an effort to keep membership in the stage of believing literally? https://lds.org/liahona/2017/10/becoming-true-disciples?cid=HP14FPM2&lang=eng https://www.lds.org/general-conference/2017/10/three-sisters?lang=eng https://www.lds.org/general-conference/2017/10/a-yearning-for-home?lang=eng I'm not really interested in going through three cherry-picked examples of talks/articles. You don't have to believe me. But my experience of four decades in church produced manuals is that the institutional church pushes the literal belief system: Adam/Eve/Eden are real people and places and the events actually happened. Global flood is a real occurrence. Book of Mormon is a literal and accurate history of people on this continent. An actual future sacrament meeting will take place in Adam Ondi Ahman. Etc. But, to your other question, I didn't say it was "proving to be a retardant to the saints' spiritual development according to any cognitive/moral scale". I'm not sure I would make that conclusion. 1
mfbukowski Posted October 5, 2017 Posted October 5, 2017 4 hours ago, rongo said: Our banks are doing the same things they were back then; they didn't learn anything. They are lending again when it's clear people won't be able to repay without perpetually refinancing. My first counselor in another ward managed the state retirement fund (JD and an MBA). Something like $6 billion he was responsible for, and he traveled the world for his job and met with financial leaders. In talking to him, he said that when this crashes, it will put the world back into the cart-and-horse era. This surprised me, because finance-types are usually not prone to doomsday scenarios. He said that the big worldwide crash of this house of cards will obliterate borders and lead to a complete reshuffling of governments and alliances. This alone would fulfill prophecies and put things in a position much closer to the "winding up scene," when it happens. Banks are out to make money. They are not in the social welfare business. Who regulates the banks? The government. Who has been in charge of the government? The guys in the social welfare business. It's not the banks fault that they guys in the social welfare business do not understand economics 1
mfbukowski Posted October 5, 2017 Posted October 5, 2017 (edited) 10 minutes ago, rockpond said: I'm not really interested in going through three cherry-picked examples of talks/articles. You don't have to believe me. But my experience of four decades in church produced manuals is that the institutional church pushes the literal belief system: Adam/Eve/Eden are real people and places and the events actually happened. Global flood is a real occurrence. Book of Mormon is a literal and accurate history of people on this continent. An actual future sacrament meeting will take place in Adam Ondi Ahman. Etc. But, to your other question, I didn't say it was "proving to be a retardant to the saints' spiritual development according to any cognitive/moral scale". I'm not sure I would make that conclusion. And now notice that throughout the church now manuals are being de-emphasized toward individuals teaching as they are taught by the spirit! Manuals are built for children, it is just a fact. The manuals now even for youth are getting thinner and thinner, and for adults next year? Barely there as subject guidelines mostly. Why? Because the church is changing and emphasizing individual testimony as it should have been all along The 1950's and the McConkie/Smith era is disappearing All the critics here bring up stuff from that period? Why? Because that is when they grew up!! It is what Bruce R McC taught children. That doesn't work anymore. And the critics don't even understand why they stereotype church literalism erroneously. It was what they were taught in that era. Prophets are fallible. But that does not mean there will not be a sacrament service in Missouri, literally. The issue is how we KNOW that. It is epistemology Do we know that because a book tells us that or because our heart tells us that? Trust your heart above the words of men. In the final analysis it is all you have to tell you if the words of men are right in the first place! Edited October 5, 2017 by mfbukowski
rongo Posted October 5, 2017 Posted October 5, 2017 5 minutes ago, rockpond said: But my experience of four decades in church produced manuals is that the institutional church pushes the literal belief system: Adam/Eve/Eden are real people and places and the events actually happened. Global flood is a real occurrence. Book of Mormon is a literal and accurate history of people on this continent. An actual future sacrament meeting will take place in Adam Ondi Ahman. Etc. No doubt about that, and thank goodness! (from my perspective). If the Church ever went officially "metaphorical/allegorical," it would really dampen my enthusiasm for the Church. It wouldn't affect my faith --- that would remain literal and vibrant --- but it would sadden me tremendously. I know that it is a cross to bear for those who prefer Church/scriptural non-literalness that the Church officially is only literal (Garden of Eden, ten tribes, global flood, real people and places in BoM, BoA, BoMoses, etc.). I think it's overall better for the strength and vitality of the Church that the opposite isn't true, and the literalists have to keep their faith kindled in private.
jkwilliams Posted October 5, 2017 Posted October 5, 2017 27 minutes ago, rongo said: No doubt about that, and thank goodness! (from my perspective). If the Church ever went officially "metaphorical/allegorical," it would really dampen my enthusiasm for the Church. It wouldn't affect my faith --- that would remain literal and vibrant --- but it would sadden me tremendously. I know that it is a cross to bear for those who prefer Church/scriptural non-literalness that the Church officially is only literal (Garden of Eden, ten tribes, global flood, real people and places in BoM, BoA, BoMoses, etc.). I think it's overall better for the strength and vitality of the Church that the opposite isn't true, and the literalists have to keep their faith kindled in private. It's definitely a harder sell to get someone to sacrifice so much of themselves for the sake of a metaphor.
CV75 Posted October 5, 2017 Posted October 5, 2017 33 minutes ago, rockpond said: I'm not really interested in going through three cherry-picked examples of talks/articles. You don't have to believe me. But my experience of four decades in church produced manuals is that the institutional church pushes the literal belief system: Adam/Eve/Eden are real people and places and the events actually happened. Global flood is a real occurrence. Book of Mormon is a literal and accurate history of people on this continent. An actual future sacrament meeting will take place in Adam Ondi Ahman. Etc. But, to your other question, I didn't say it was "proving to be a retardant to the saints' spiritual development according to any cognitive/moral scale". I'm not sure I would make that conclusion. They are not cherry-picked, they happen to be the first messages made by a prophets, seers and revelators in the October Ensign and first two sessions of General Conference (how difficult was that to find?). I think these messages are representative of a well-rounded experience and exemplify the tone for everything else done in the Church. Now you've cherry-picked some examples from the manuals, and as I stated, some things, such as the resurrection of Christ, are taught as actual events and living realities, but not everything to the point of trying "to keep membership in the stage of believing literally," which would refrain from using the kinds of messages I pointed to. And you did say that they "try to keep membership in the stage of believing literally" -- isn't that a less-developed stage than where you are, according to the Fowler or Perry categorizations, and wouldn't keeping them there require a retardant action against development?
CV75 Posted October 5, 2017 Posted October 5, 2017 32 minutes ago, rongo said: No doubt about that, and thank goodness! (from my perspective). If the Church ever went officially "metaphorical/allegorical," it would really dampen my enthusiasm for the Church. It wouldn't affect my faith --- that would remain literal and vibrant --- but it would sadden me tremendously. I know that it is a cross to bear for those who prefer Church/scriptural non-literalness that the Church officially is only literal (Garden of Eden, ten tribes, global flood, real people and places in BoM, BoA, BoMoses, etc.). I think it's overall better for the strength and vitality of the Church that the opposite isn't true, and the literalists have to keep their faith kindled in private. Yes, there is certainly a balance to be had, all kinds of truth to be shared in all kinds of ways by those with the keys and insight (dare i say revelation?) to discern when and how to do which.
CV75 Posted October 5, 2017 Posted October 5, 2017 13 minutes ago, jkwilliams said: It's definitely a harder sell to get someone to sacrifice so much of themselves for the sake of a metaphor. If I choose to live my life as Adam, am I sacrificing for the sake of a metaphor or a real person? 1
jkwilliams Posted October 5, 2017 Posted October 5, 2017 (edited) 15 minutes ago, CV75 said: If I choose to live my life as Adam, am I sacrificing for the sake of a metaphor or a real person? I take it you're in the "everything is metaphor" camp. I'm just saying for a lot of people, a belief system that is purely metaphorical and not based in some sort of "reality" (however one conceives that term) is less compelling when it comes to self-sacrifice. See, for example, the thread on "inspired fiction." Obviously, YMMV. Edited October 5, 2017 by jkwilliams
CV75 Posted October 5, 2017 Posted October 5, 2017 32 minutes ago, jkwilliams said: I take it you're in the "everything is metaphor" camp. I'm just saying for a lot of people, a belief system that is purely metaphorical and not based in some sort of "reality" (however one conceives that term) is less compelling when it comes to self-sacrifice. See, for example, the thread on "inspired fiction." Obviously, YMMV. I do not consider myself to be in the "everything is metaphor" camp, though I can see how in one sense everything is metaphor. What is the name of the other camp? In consideration of your concept of sacrifice, if I choose to live my life as Adam, do you think am I sacrificing for the sake of a metaphor or a real person? What do you sacrifice so much or yourself for?
Pete Ahlstrom Posted October 5, 2017 Posted October 5, 2017 1 hour ago, mfbukowski said: Really poor logic. Yes there is a bubble and yes there will be a correction- but to apply this to the end of the world? Seriously? To see a market correction as a fault in prophecies of the end of the world?? YOU are the only one confused. It is your INTERPRETATION that is at fault. So if the market changes and the END does not come- it is the fault of the prophet? P L E A S E! I don't apply it to the end of the world. I think these so-called prophecies are non-sense. This is why I said that the D&C always has Jesus coming quickly and the New Testament has Jesus coming back in the same generation as the writer. It hasn't happened and won't ever because the Jesus of religion is myth. Maybe you ought to read what I say a little more carefully? Or is this your interpretation of word games? You see what you want and then spout off something?
mfbukowski Posted October 5, 2017 Posted October 5, 2017 (edited) 1 hour ago, jkwilliams said: It's definitely a harder sell to get someone to sacrifice so much of themselves for the sake of a metaphor. ..... and die for "freedom" I think you are wrong. We live and die by metaphors. All language is a metaphor- as I recall you used to think that. But it WAS kind of a cute, facile, reply. Edited October 5, 2017 by mfbukowski
mfbukowski Posted October 5, 2017 Posted October 5, 2017 (edited) 55 minutes ago, CV75 said: If I choose to live my life as Adam, am I sacrificing for the sake of a metaphor or a real person? Or Christ for that matter? All of us desire to be "moral". What is morality but a metaphor for "ideal" behavior? Edited October 5, 2017 by mfbukowski
CV75 Posted October 5, 2017 Posted October 5, 2017 3 minutes ago, mfbukowski said: Or Christ for that matter? All of us desire to be "moral". What is morality but a metaphor for "ideal" behavior? So I proudly answer my own question (it really wasn't rhetorical, though!) "Yes and no, and both." Inasmuch as I am a real person, at least LOL 1
mfbukowski Posted October 5, 2017 Posted October 5, 2017 (edited) 1 hour ago, jkwilliams said: I take it you're in the "everything is metaphor" camp. I'm just saying for a lot of people, a belief system that is purely metaphorical and not based in some sort of "reality" (however one conceives that term) is less compelling when it comes to self-sacrifice. See, for example, the thread on "inspired fiction." Obviously, YMMV. Obviously contradictory for those who believe "all language is a metaphor". We are saying that "reality" as we know it is a metphor- there IS no other reality we can know, except direct non-verbal experience. And even then it is questionable. We do see mirages and make mistakes in perception all the time. Some perceptions do not work or lead to successful outcomes. Chairs don't pop from our mouths when we speak. Words are SYMBOLS However one conceives the term???? I conceive the term as "reality as we speak of it is a metaphor" What else can it be?? We speak in symbols! Signs- things that point to other things that they are NOT. Reality as we know it IS a metaphor. We see things "through a glass darkly" - Rorty- Mirror of Nature, and other places. In the beginning was the Word and the Word created it all. Edited October 5, 2017 by mfbukowski
mfbukowski Posted October 5, 2017 Posted October 5, 2017 3 minutes ago, CV75 said: So I proudly answer my own question (it really wasn't rhetorical, though!) "Yes and no, and both." Inasmuch as I am a real person, at least LOL Nah, that is your assertion that you are a real person- I doubt that "CV75" has a birth certificate- words! And what good is a birth certificate? You can buy those anywhere!! To me you are squggles on a screen. Every one of is is a victim of "identity theft"- no one else knows our "true reality" Identity theft really shows this in today's society but all it has done is illustrate what has always been. If I see you face to face is that the "real you"? And we speak that Joseph might be a fraud? Who is not a fraud in some sense? Is the image of you with a suit and tie really "you"? All of this applies to me just as well of course- I am just making a point.
mfbukowski Posted October 5, 2017 Posted October 5, 2017 23 minutes ago, Pete Ahlstrom said: I don't apply it to the end of the world. I think these so-called prophecies are non-sense. This is why I said that the D&C always has Jesus coming quickly and the New Testament has Jesus coming back in the same generation as the writer. It hasn't happened and won't ever because the Jesus of religion is myth. Maybe you ought to read what I say a little more carefully? Or is this your interpretation of word games? You see what you want and then spout off something? Prove logically Mr. Spock, that anything "never will happen". Good luck. Even Bertrand Russell, huge atheist, would disagree with that one. Read the Perry Scheme. This will help modernize your Enlightenment understanding level and bring you at least into the mid 20th century. But of course you do not have a good record for comprehending or attempting to refute this way of thinking- you just keep asserting and asserting. https://www.cse.buffalo.edu/~rapaport/perry.positions.html
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