2014 Pew Forum Report On Religion In America

[Buckeye]

I'm starting a general thread to discuss the recent Pew Forum report on religion in America. The report is based on a large set of survey data (large enough even to give reliable statistics on smaller groups such as LDS) that tracks the same survey questioning done by Pew in 2007. The Deseret News has an article summarizing the report. (http://www.deseretnews.com/article/865628487/New-survey-shows-decline-in-mainline-Protestant-churches-as-unaffiliated-Muslims-and-Hindus-gain.html?pg=2) The full report can be found here: (http://www.pewforum.org/2015/05/12/americas-changing-religious-landscape/) And the raw data tables can be found here: (http://www.pewforum.org/files/2015/05/Appendix-D-Detailed-Tables.pdf)

 

Below are a few of the interesting tidbits that jumped out to me (taken from the raw data tables). Again, these reflect changes from 2007-2014:

• Mormons still have many more women than men (54%-46%), which is similar to most faiths, but the gap has narrowed in the past 7 years.
• The racial composition of the US church is largely unchanged. The only noticeably change is that the number of blacks went down from 3% to 1% of the total, and the number of mixed race when up from 3% to 5%. I chalk this up to either a change in methodology or, more likely, the result of a small sample size. Regardless, in the US, we are still a very very white church (85%).
• We've gotten a little older. Only the 50-64 age group grew. It picked up 3% from the other groups.
• We're still better educated that the national average. And our % of college graduates is up 4% over 7 years ago. That's rather impressive. Still, I'm struck by the large gap between the 40% of LDS who have some college education vs. the 23% who have a degree. Maybe this is due to lots of LDS still in school, but the numbers themselves show that roughly 2/3 LDS who start college have not finished - which is a higher rate than most other faiths.
• We've shifted geographically. The % of LDS in the Northeast went from 4% to 6% and in the South went from 12% to 20%. The Midwest is stagnant at 7%.   The west went down from 76% to 67%. I imagine that Texas must be a large part of the growth in the South.
• Family income levels are roughly the same, except for a 4% drop in the 50-75K group that matches a 4% gain in the 100K group. We had the largest growth in the 100K group of any faith. Go team mammon!
• LDS marriage rate is down from 71% to 66%. None of that is due to divorce, which is actually also down (9% to 7%). All of it is due to the rise of never marrieds - up from 12% to 19%.
• LDS % in each of the 50 states is largely unchanged (or too small to account). The noticeable changes are all drops - Idaho from 23% to 19% of the population; Utah from 58% to 55% of the population, and Nevada from 11% to 4% of the population. At this rate, Utah will be a majority non-LDS in another 15 years. But on the bright side, we'll be completely out of sin city within 5 years.

[Brian 2.0]

I was about to post the same thing.  You beat me to it.  

 

Obviously the biggest moves are the big hit in Christian numbers and the big jump in Unaffiliated.  (I would never have thought atheists outnumber Jews is this country)

[ALarson]

Thanks for posting this, Buckeye (and for the analysis too!).  I'll check out the article.

[Buckeye]

I was about to post the same thing.  You beat me to it.  

 

Obviously the biggest moves are the big hit in Christian numbers and the big jump in Unaffiliated.  (I would never have thought atheists outnumber Jews is this country)

 

Yes. I was focusing on LDS-centric themes. But overall, the biggest changes are the rise in the nones/athiests and the drop in mainline protestants.

 

On a total membership level, LDS can (maybe) feel good that we have held our membership steady as a % of the US population, while other groups have dropped. But when you account for the very large proselyting program we have, and the fact that we have the largest family size (see here: http://www.deseretnews.com/article/865628480/Mormon-families-are-Americas-largest-new-study-finds.html), we should be hesitant to crow about anything.

 

 

... but hey, the Payson temple is really big! (http://www.deseretnews.com/article/865626906/LDS-Church-gives-media-first-in-depth-public-look-at-Payson-Utah-Temple.html?pg=all)

Edited May 12, 2015 by Buckeye

[Brian 2.0]

... but hey, the Payson temple is really big! (http://www.deseretnews.com/article/865626906/LDS-Church-gives-media-first-in-depth-public-look-at-Payson-Utah-Temple.html?pg=all)

 

HA!  That made me laugh.

[bluebell]

Smac actually already posted about this in the news forum.  One of the interesting things he brought up was that the change in people who identify as mormons is actually within the statistical error gap and so it's really hard to know what the survey actually found out since the results for lds are inconclusive.  He was hoping that someone with a statistics background could explain how it works and i think that would also be great.

 

It's still an interesting survey though.

[ALarson]

It's nice to see they consider Mormons to be Christians

[Gray]

I was about to post the same thing.  You beat me to it.  

 

Obviously the biggest moves are the big hit in Christian numbers and the big jump in Unaffiliated.  (I would never have thought atheists outnumber Jews is this country)

 

Well, they're lumping in atheists in with agnostics and the "nones". Many of the nones are going to identify as "spiritual but not religious." From previous surveys they've been the largest of the three groups. 

[Brian 2.0]

Well, they're lumping in atheists in with agnostics and the "nones". Many of the nones are going to identify as "spiritual but not religious." From previous surveys they've been the largest of the three groups.

No. This is more broken down. Athiets at 3.1. Jewish at 1.9

The nones are separated out. See the 2nd link in OP.

[ERayR]

 

I'm starting a general thread to discuss the recent Pew Forum report on religion in America. The report is based on a large set of survey data (large enough even to give reliable statistics on smaller groups such as LDS) that tracks the same survey questioning done by Pew in 2007. The Deseret News has an article summarizing the report. (http://www.deseretnews.com/article/865628487/New-survey-shows-decline-in-mainline-Protestant-churches-as-unaffiliated-Muslims-and-Hindus-gain.html?pg=2) The full report can be found here: (http://www.pewforum.org/2015/05/12/americas-changing-religious-landscape/) And the raw data tables can be found here: (http://www.pewforum.org/files/2015/05/Appendix-D-Detailed-Tables.pdf)

 

Below are a few of the interesting tidbits that jumped out to me (taken from the raw data tables). Again, these reflect changes from 2007-2014:

• Mormons still have many more women than men (54%-46%), which is similar to most faiths, but the gap has narrowed in the past 7 years.
• The racial composition of the US church is largely unchanged. The only noticeably change is that the number of blacks went down from 3% to 1% of the total, and the number of mixed race when up from 3% to 5%. I chalk this up to either a change in methodology or, more likely, the result of a small sample size. Regardless, in the US, we are still a very very white church (85%).
• We've gotten a little older. Only the 50-64 age group grew. It picked up 3% from the other groups.
• We're still better educated that the national average. And our % of college graduates is up 4% over 7 years ago. That's rather impressive. Still, I'm struck by the large gap between the 40% of LDS who have some college education vs. the 23% who have a degree. Maybe this is due to lots of LDS still in school, but the numbers themselves show that roughly 2/3 LDS who start college have not finished - which is a higher rate than most other faiths.
• We've shifted geographically. The % of LDS in the Northeast went from 4% to 6% and in the South went from 12% to 20%. The Midwest is stagnant at 7%.   The west went down from 76% to 67%. I imagine that Texas must be a large part of the growth in the South.
• Family income levels are roughly the same, except for a 4% drop in the 50-75K group that matches a 4% gain in the 100K group. We had the largest growth in the 100K group of any faith. Go team mammon!
• LDS marriage rate is down from 71% to 66%. None of that is due to divorce, which is actually also down (9% to 7%). All of it is due to the rise of never marrieds - up from 12% to 19%.
• LDS % in each of the 50 states is largely unchanged (or too small to account). The noticeable changes are all drops - Idaho from 23% to 19% of the population; Utah from 58% to 55% of the population, and Nevada from 11% to 4% of the population. At this rate, Utah will be a majority non-LDS in another 15 years. But on the bright side, we'll be completely out of sin city within 5 years.

 

 

In my area there is a sizable increase in Hispanic people joining.

[Buckeye]

No. This is more broken down. Athiets at 3.1. Jewish at 1.9

The nones are separated out. See the 2nd link in OP.

 

Correct. "nones" account for over 2/3 of the total "unaffiliated." They also increased by a larger absolute amount during the past 7 years, though the athiests had the largest percentage increase (nearly doubling). The full numbers are:

• Atheist   - 1.6 (2007) vs. 3.1 (2014) = 1.5 increase
• Agnostic - 2.4 (2007) vs. 4.0 (2014) = 1.6 increase
• Nones    - 12.1 (2007) vs. 15.8 (2014) = 3.7 increase

[Buckeye]

In my area there is a sizable increase in Hispanic people joining.

 

For the US as a whole, hispanics went from 7% of the total LDS to 8% of the total. Not much of a change.

[Gray]

No. This is more broken down. Athiets at 3.1. Jewish at 1.9

The nones are separated out. See the 2nd link in OP.

 

I didn't see that, thanks!

[hope_for_things]

I thought it was interesting that the % of LDS declined from 1.7% to 1.6% over the 7 years.  This does seem to suggest that net membership growth is happening outside of the USA.  This does somewhat contradict the message from the Elder Cook talk in my opinion, we should be honest about where the growth is coming from and acknowledge flat numbers or even declining trends within the USA as an area of concern. 

 

Another interesting stat showed the 3.4 children per family for Mormons which exceeded the next closest group at 2.5 children.  But it was interesting to contrast this with the retention rate for those children at 64%.

 

Wish we had more data coming from church HQ, but in the absence of transparency, we’ll have to use reports like this.    

[bluebell]

I thought it was interesting that the % of LDS declined from 1.7% to 1.6% over the 7 years.  This does seem to suggest that net membership growth is happening outside of the USA.  This does somewhat contradict the message from the Elder Cook talk in my opinion, we should be honest about where the growth is coming from and acknowledge flat numbers or even declining trends within the USA as an area of concern. 

 

 

Smac, in his thread in the news forum, actually mentioned this.  I think his point is relevant so i'll quote him here-

 

"Hmm. I was also reminded of this statement from Elder Quentin L. Cook during April's General Conference: "Some have asserted that more members are leaving the Church today and that there is more doubt and unbelief than in the past. This is simply not true. The Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-day Saints has never been stronger. The number of members removing their names from the records of the Church has always been very small and is significantly less in recent years than in the past."

I do not doubt Elder Cook's statistics, but I think he overlooks people who do not seek to formally have their names removed from the membership rolls of the Church, but who nonetheless cease to self-identify as LDS (as measured in the Pew poll).  Nevertheless, the Church appears to be at least keeping pace with overall population growth in the U.S. (and growing substantially in many other places)."

[Buckeye]

I thought it was interesting that the % of LDS declined from 1.7% to 1.6% over the 7 years.  This does seem to suggest that net membership growth is happening outside of the USA.  This does somewhat contradict the message from the Elder Cook talk in my opinion, we should be honest about where the growth is coming from and acknowledge flat numbers or even declining trends within the USA as an area of concern. 

 

Another interesting stat showed the 3.4 children per family for Mormons which exceeded the next closest group at 2.5 children.  But it was interesting to contrast this with the retention rate for those children at 64%.

 

Wish we had more data coming from church HQ, but in the absence of transparency, we’ll have to use reports like this.    

 

I'm not sure there is a contradiction. 0.1% is small enough to be a statistical error. In essence, we're holding steady. That means that we grew in absolute numbers, because the US population grew, but that our growth paralleled that of the nation. Again, nothing to be too proud about, but better than many other churches.

 

For me, the most important statement made by Elder Cook is that the number of members requesting name removal has dropped in absolute terms. That's very surprising and contrary to what I've seen in my area. But I hope its true. Until the church publishes actual numbers, though, I'll have be content with hoping.

[Brian 2.0]

I'm not sure there is a contradiction. 0.1% is small enough to be a statistical error. In essence, we're holding steady. That means that we grew in absolute numbers, because the US population grew, but that our growth paralleled that of the nation. Again, nothing to be too proud about, but better than many other churches.

 

For me, the most important statement made by Elder Cook is that the number of members requesting name removal has dropped in absolute terms. That's very surprising and contrary to what I've seen in my area. But I hope its true. Until the church publishes actual numbers, though, I'll have be content with hoping.

 

These numbers show the church holding steady with population growth from 2007

 

What do the church membership numbers show in regards to population growth in the same time -- What was the US church membership in 2007 and US population so we can get that percentage then compare it to US church numbers today vs the US population today.  Those number could tell us something when compared to the pew numbers.

[Calm]

•  Still, I'm struck by the large gap between the 40% of LDS who have some college education vs. the 23% who have a degree. Maybe this is due to lots of LDS still in school, but the numbers themselves show that roughly 2/3 LDS who start college have not finished - which is a higher rate than most other faiths.

  In the past, those that didn't finish were largely women, iirc.  Is there separation of male/female in this stat?

   

[smac97]

I thought it was interesting that the % of LDS declined from 1.7% to 1.6% over the 7 years.  This does seem to suggest that net membership growth is happening outside of the USA.

The U.S. population in 2007 was 301,579,895, and in 2014 it was 322,583,006.  So there has been growth in U.S. membership numbers, but not growth sufficient to affect a statistically significant change in the percentage of LDS in the population as a whole.  

 

This does somewhat contradict the message from the Elder Cook talk in my opinion, we should be honest about where the growth is coming from and acknowledge flat numbers or even declining trends within the USA as an area of concern.

I'm not sure it's appropriate to impliedly accuse Elder Cook of being dishonest. He was specifically speaking of people who have their names removed. That is a different metric from people who self-identify as LDS. I agree with what is perhaps your underlying sentiment: that we should be using self-identification in polls such as this as an important metric. However, this poll is not particularly useful in that its reported change in self-reporting Mormons is statistically insignificant. So until and unless we get a poll or data that is useful in assessing trends in self-reporting Mormons, I think Elder Cook's metric is unobjectionable.

Thanks,

-Smac

Edited May 12, 2015 by smac97

[Buckeye]

 

• In the past, those that didn't finish were largely women, iirc.  Is there separation of male/female in this stat?

   

 

 

Not that I see. In society at large today, men have the higher rate of not finishing. It was different in the past, as you point out.

 

If I had to guess, I would say the biggest factor for LDS is that we have a younger population and, overall, more younger people are likely to begin college because it's more expected today than in the past. I would expect other more-youthful religions to show the same results of having higher starts compared to finishes.

[Buckeye]

I'm not sure it's appropriate to impliedly accuse Elder Cook of being dishonest. He was specifically speaking of people who have their names removed. That is a different metric from people who self-identify as LDS. I agree with what is perhaps your underlying sentiment: that we should be using self-identification in polls such as this as an important metric. However, this poll is not particularly useful in that its reported change in self-reporting Mormons is statistically insignificant. So until and unless we get a poll or data that is useful in assessing trends in self-reporting Mormons, I think Elder Cook's metric is unobjectionable.

Thanks,

-Smac

 

Very good point. The church and Pew come at things from different perspectives. The church assumes member unless removal. Pew assumes non-member unless affirmative identification.

[halconero]

It's nice to see they consider Mormons to be Christians

Honestly, the whole "non-Christian" schitck resides mostly in Protestant Christianity. At the academic level, Mormons are usually considered a Christian group, albeit one with very different and heterodox beliefs.

[hope_for_things]

I'm not sure there is a contradiction. 0.1% is small enough to be a statistical error. In essence, we're holding steady. That means that we grew in absolute numbers, because the US population grew, but that our growth paralleled that of the nation. Again, nothing to be too proud about, but better than many other churches.

 

For me, the most important statement made by Elder Cook is that the number of members requesting name removal has dropped in absolute terms. That's very surprising and contrary to what I've seen in my area. But I hope its true. Until the church publishes actual numbers, though, I'll have be content with hoping.

Could be a statistical error, but lets assume it's correct.  Remember the 2007 # could also be a statistical error, so in essense you could have an ever greater decline on one end of the spectrum or very little to no decline on the other.  

 

You say it's less than other churches, but the year over year decline % from 1.7 to 1.6 is a 5.8% move.  Comparing that to the other faiths it actually the largest decline for any individual group, although, I noticed in this chart that they don’t calculate the YoY change #s for the smaller faiths, probably because the sample wasn’t large enough to be as accurate for smaller groups.  I also couldn’t find the raw data, so the 1.7 could have been 1.74 rounded down, and the 1.6 could have been 1.56 rounded up.  Another decimal place would be helpful for this kind of a comparison.  

[stemelbow]

I wanted to point something out here. It seems critical voices, which sometimes includes my own, I suppose, enjoy pointing out that the Church's activity rate is 35-40% worldwide. So, says the critical voice, with such a low activity rate, the Church might actually be closer to 5-6 million (which doesn't quite work out with the numbers, exactly, but we get the point).

This study claims that 1.6% of the US is LDS. 1.6% of 320,090,857 (http://www.usnews.com/opinion/blogs/robert-schlesinger/2014/12/31/us-population-2015-320-million-and-world-population-72-billion) is 5,121,454 (rounded to the nearest whole). Yet the Church claims the number of members on record is 6,466,267. That's a difference of 1,344,813. Or, as it works out, approximately 21% of the members on record. If this can reasonably be extended to the world in general, we might see, of the 15,372,337 members on record, 12,144,146 people claiming to be members. Of those 12 million +, then, 5,534,041 active, 6,610,105 not active, but still consider themselves LDS. Of course seeing these numbers broken down by country reveals extreme variation in activity rates, and perhaps, the number of people who consider themselves Mormon vs the number on record (Brazil, Mexico, Chile, Argentina, as I recall all report very high levels of people who were baptized but don't consider themselves LDS anymore).

Interesting. I hope the Church has a good grasp of these numbers.

In 2007, the US' LDS population, according to that represented in this survey is 5,120,910. According to this, we only added 544 people to the Church, at least those who self-report as LDS. This may indicate people are leaving nearly as fast as they are coming, something that seems to be true, at least to me, anecdotally.

Wow...there's a lot of figuring yet to be made.

[HappyJackWagon]

 

The U.S. population in 2007 was 301,579,895, and in 2014 it was 322,583,006.  So there has been growth in U.S. membership numbers, but not growth sufficient to affect a statistically significant change in the percentage of LDS in the population as a whole.  

 

I'm not sure it's appropriate to impliedly accuse Elder Cook of being dishonest. He was specifically speaking of people who have their names removed. That is a different metric from people who self-identify as LDS. I agree with what is perhaps your underlying sentiment: that we should be using self-identification in polls such as this as an important metric. However, this poll is not particularly useful in that its reported change in self-reporting Mormons is statistically insignificant. So until and unless we get a poll or data that is useful in assessing trends in self-reporting Mormons, I think Elder Cook's metric is unobjectionable.

Thanks,

-Smac

Well, he could have been disingenuous or maybe just wrong. He does seem to have carefully worded his statistical analysis to make an overall claim that the church has never been stronger. Naturally, it's easy to make claims about data when you're the only one with access to the data.

Church growth YOY had net growth nearly equal to the number of convert baptisms. This means that the birthrate is equal to the deathrate + resignations.