Calm Posted January 4, 2012 Posted January 4, 2012 By 8 votes.....http://www.usatoday.com/news/politics/story/2012-01-03/republican-iowa-caucuses/52367932/1
frankenstein Posted January 4, 2012 Posted January 4, 2012 what happens in southern states will be interesting. hopefully Conformity Bias will not rule the day and everyone will make their own personal choice in the matter.
thesometimesaint Posted January 4, 2012 Posted January 4, 2012 Romney faces a big problem in the South. He spent literallly millions and millions of dollars for those eight votes. Santorum spent about half a million for a virtual tie. Romney was expected to have had Iowa easily. Onto New Hampshire where he is expected to win, but Santorum has the staff needed to make it close. North Carolina is next and it will go for Santorum over Romney particularly amoungst the Evangelicals, and the Religious Right. Out West Romney should have an easier time of it. At this point there is no clear path to the nomination for any candidate. So the possibility of a brokered convention may come into play.
Daniel Peterson Posted January 4, 2012 Posted January 4, 2012 Romney was expected to have had Iowa easily.CFR.
emeliza Posted January 4, 2012 Posted January 4, 2012 Yeah, I didn't think he was supposed to have Iowa easily. I thought he would be in the top 3 in Iowa and he was. I didn't necessarily think he would be the top though. I live in Iowa and am just basing that on listening to people, not from reading all the news out there.
BCSpace Posted January 5, 2012 Posted January 5, 2012 And we shall see if evangelicals fall in line with Santorum, the candidate with the best religious appeal (to them) right now. Family values are playing better with Santorum compared to Romney right now As Perry and Bachmann exit the race, I predict much of their support will go over to Santorum if he's still there. When Gingrich goes, probably a split between Romney and Paul. Sill a long shot for Santorum, but they said Obama was a long shot against Hillary in 2008. He gave the speech of his life when Iowa closed out. He doesn't have the Chicago machine to back him like Obama did, but money is pouring in and if you go to his website, it all leads to a donation page so I can't even find out what his stated positions are right now.No, I am not necessarily excited about Santorum, his meteoric rise is interesting and informative though.
thesometimesaint Posted January 5, 2012 Posted January 5, 2012 Daniel Peterson:http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/01/04/candidates-who-do-better-than-expected-win-more-media-attention/http://www.businessinsider.com/iowa-caucus-eight-votes-statistics-2012-1
Jeff K. Posted January 5, 2012 Posted January 5, 2012 You need to look at earlier news stories. Most predicted a Romney second, third or even fourth place finish. I don't have my computer with me to pull up the stories, but that was the impression.
CQUIRK Posted January 5, 2012 Posted January 5, 2012 Even if Romney doesn't win in the South, he could still get the nomination by winning just the west, northeast, and upper mid-western states. Though He likely could win Florida, now that McCain is backing him.I'm still supporting Ron Paul. Even if Paul doesn't win the primary, he's the only guy that aligns with my views, and he'll still put up a good fight, nevertheless.
thesometimesaint Posted January 5, 2012 Posted January 5, 2012 The ONLY thing I agree with Mr. Paul on is his antiwar stand. That just isn't enough for me to vote for him.
LeSellers Posted January 5, 2012 Posted January 5, 2012 [Ron Paul]'s the only guy that aligns with my views, and he'll still put up a good fight, nevertheless.And mine.The ONLY thing I agree with Mr. Paul on is his antiwar stand. That just isn't enough for me to vote for him.He has some different views on what government should do and how it should do them, but then he's the only one of the candidates who's read the Constitution lately, or who understands it in the least. The incumbent candidate being the most notably ignorant of the bunch.Lehi
blackstrap Posted January 5, 2012 Posted January 5, 2012 But,but,but... he is a constituional law prof. no?
LeSellers Posted January 5, 2012 Posted January 5, 2012 But,but,but... he is a constituional law prof. no?Constitutional law professors at certain universities have a tenuous connection with the reason for the Document. Even lip service to the Founders is marginal.Lehi
thesometimesaint Posted January 5, 2012 Posted January 5, 2012 Lehi:I often disagree with any/every politican(The only person I always agree with is myself, and I'm entitled to change my mind). However taken to its logical conclusion would you If you needed a lawyer go to a non lawyer? If you need heart surgery would you go to your neighborhood plumber for open heart surgery? After all it is just plumbing.
LeSellers Posted January 5, 2012 Posted January 5, 2012 I often disagree with any/every politican(The only person I always agree with is myself, and I'm entitled to change my mind). However taken to its logical conclusion would you If you needed a lawyer go to a non lawyer? If you need heart surgery would you go to your neighborhood plumber for open heart surgery? After all it is just plumbing.What does this have to do with anything we've been talking about? You have a proclivity towards non sequitor.It is not "just plumbing", as you very well know. But there is no reason at all to assume that medical school is the only way to gain the knowledge and even the expertise to perform heart surgery. But the AMA convinced congress and the state legislatures to prohibit alternative methods, so we're stuck with the very expensive path they allowed us. It's the same with the legal profession: Thomas Jefferson, John Adams, and Abraham Lincoln never attended a law school, yet I defy you or anyone else to tell me they were unsatisfactory or ineffective lawyers. The AMA and the ABA (among a myriad of other such "professional organizations") exist primarily to insure high prices for their members by curtailing the supply of practitioners, using the potentially lethal force of government to do so.If I needed heart surgery, I would not go to a plumber, but that does not mean I'd not go to a surgeon who'd acquired his abilites in ways other then medical school, but, alas, we'll never know, since the state would kill both me and him were I even to try.As for Ron Paul, he's far better educated about economics than any of the others in the campaign, including the current occupier of the White House (and who has much in common with the Occupiers of Wall Street and other places: none of them has ever held a constructive job and they seek to destroy the very engine of prosperity they rely on for their parasitic existence). He has run a successful business (he was an OB an had his own practice), and has at least a passing acquaintance with the military, having been an Air Force flight surgeon for years. That'll easily stand against anything any of the others, from either major party, can bring to the table.Lehi
LeSellers Posted January 5, 2012 Posted January 5, 2012 I still like Ike.I've heard of the dead voting, most notably in Chicago and Texas. But I've only once heard of voting for the dead, and that, too, was for a Democrat: Dead Democrat Re-Elected in California. Did Ike change parties?Lehi
Vance Posted January 5, 2012 Posted January 5, 2012 Romney was expected to have had Iowa easily.Wrong!!And reference stories written AFTER the fact won't support your false claim.
thesometimesaint Posted January 6, 2012 Posted January 6, 2012 Vance:Romney was expected to get 42% of the vote with the remaining candidates spliting the rest with Gingrich and Paul most of the remainder. No one expected Santorum to do as well as he did.
thesometimesaint Posted January 6, 2012 Posted January 6, 2012 Lehi:Then you should be perfectly fine with going to your neighborhood plumber, and yes it is just plumbing. Though in this case it is a person instead of a house. No one really worries about callng the plumber to their house, other than paying the bill, but most of us do worry over an impeding heart surgery.John Adams attended Harvard Law School, though he didn't graduate.
CQUIRK Posted January 6, 2012 Posted January 6, 2012 42% of the vote in Iowa? You expected Romney to do THAT well there?
Stargazer Posted January 6, 2012 Posted January 6, 2012 My youngest son was astounded to hear that I wasn't supporting Ron Paul for President. I explained to him that Dr. Paul had approximately a snowball's chance in hell of getting the nomination, much less the presidency. He can pack a house with bussed-in supporters, but he cannot reach the most important bloc of voters, namely the great middle, on election day. Among other reasons to oppose him include his likelihood of getting any of his deregulatory ideas pushed through Congress (effectively zero), and his foreign policy (for one thing, Osama bin Laden would still be alive and kicking and so would that other guy that got waxed if Dr. Paul had been president). I agree with a lot of what he has to say (his racist newsletter rants not being any of it), but there is no chance of him getting elected. The republicans better present a moderate or they will fail. Dr. Paul is by no means a moderate. I would prefer Chris Christie or the current Speaker of the House, or even Rand Paul. But I will settle for Romney or Santorum.
Calm Posted January 6, 2012 Author Posted January 6, 2012 Came across interesting article on how polling may be used to identify anti-mormons (only in the sense that they will never vote for a Mormon as president): http://www.slate.com/articles/news_and_politics/victory_lab/2011/12/mitt_romney_s_iowa_strategy_find_the_anti_mormon_voters_then_ignore_them_.single.html
LeSellers Posted January 6, 2012 Posted January 6, 2012 Then you should be perfectly fine with going to your neighborhood plumber, and yes it is just plumbing. Though in this case it is a person instead of a house. No one really worries about callng the plumber to their house, other than paying the bill, but most of us do worry over an impeding heart surgery.No, I am not "perfectly fine with going to your neighborhood plumber" for heart surgery because he's not a heart surgeon. You are twisting my argument, or, rather constructing a straw man, because I am not saying that just anyone can do heart surgery. I am saying that modern medical schools are not the only possible place one could learn the skills needed to perform heart surgery. (Well, because of the state and its threat of lethal action against anyone who'd try, medical school is the only legal way to do it. But that's not a given, it's politics.)John Adams attended Harvard Law School, though he didn't graduate.So, today, he'd not be allowed to practice law.I'll give you John Adams. He did, however, graduate from Harvard with an AM (Master of Arts) before being admitted to the bar, but actually "read law" with John Putnam, not at the college. But I'll raise you Oliver Cowdery and thousands of others who did not graduate from college at all, much less a law school. Oliver was, by all accounts, an accomplished lawyer in Tiffin, Ohio, and Elkhorn, Wisconsin.The system under which we struggle for professional services is what David Hapgood called "The Screwing of the Average Man". His book of the same name shows how such organizations (going as low as auto mechanics and school teachers) use "professional birth control" to limit the numbers of authorized practitioners so as to drive the cost of their services up. Medical, education, and law schools are prime examples of needless "education" that restricts who can enter these professions and so forces the price up well beyond what it would be were there a free market in any of these fields.Lehi
LeSellers Posted January 6, 2012 Posted January 6, 2012 I'm only registered as a Republican. I'm a libertarian (please note the capitalization.)However, in spite of the fact that I'm not a Romney supporter, even from among the GOP candidates, I'd still feel much better about the race if we didn't see so much of this (irrespective of the characters playing each position):Lehi
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