Chinese government officials ban LDS Church activities in Beijing

[JAHS]

 

[ZealouslyStriving]

Well, I guess that means the Temple is a no-go than. 😢 How sad for those members.

Edited July 5, 2025 by ZealouslyStriving

[marineland]

Time for the church to go underground like it has for other denominations.

https://www.sltrib.com/religion/2025/07/04/lds-branches-shut-down-beijing/

[Stargazer]

I'm not surprised. With the CCP earnestly preparing for an invasion of Taiwan as early as 2027, and the US being seen as a serious factor in resisting that invasion, any organization based in the US is going to be seen as a threat to the CCP's intentions.

[longview]

21 minutes ago, Stargazer said:

I'm not surprised. With the CCP earnestly preparing for an invasion of Taiwan as early as 2027, and the US being seen as a serious factor in resisting that invasion, any organization based in the US is going to be seen as a threat to the CCP's intentions.

It is TOO late for Xi. His government is unravelling with his supporters being transferred out of key positions in the military. There is much greater discontent by the people after they discovered that they truly do not have property rights and home ownership. It is a mirage for them. They cannot even make meaningful gains on their investments (unless they get favorable permissions from the insiders). The tariff adjustments is putting the CCP into a terrible bind. Manufacturing is relocating OUT of China in droves.

[Robert F. Smith]

4 hours ago, marineland said:

Time for the church to go underground like it has for other denominations.

....................................

That would not be advisable at all.  Latter-day Saints have a reputation in China for being honest and above board.  Never a threat to the govt.

2 hours ago, Stargazer said:

I'm not surprised. With the CCP earnestly preparing for an invasion of Taiwan as early as 2027, and the US being seen as a serious factor in resisting that invasion, any organization based in the US is going to be seen as a threat to the CCP's intentions.

The CCP is in the midst of a major change in leadership, and it is too soon to conclude anything.  We do not in fact know what the near future holds.  Xi Jinping is losing power, military leadership is undergoing major changes, and it is not clear who will come out on top.

[Stargazer]

20 hours ago, Robert F. Smith said:

That would not be advisable at all.  Latter-day Saints have a reputation in China for being honest and above board.  Never a threat to the govt.

Trying to appear non-threatening is good. But the CCP can be very mercurial about this. As Falun Gong found out.

20 hours ago, Robert F. Smith said:

The CCP is in the midst of a major change in leadership, and it is too soon to conclude anything.  We do not in fact know what the near future holds.  Xi Jinping is losing power, military leadership is undergoing major changes, and it is not clear who will come out on top.

Yes, it is too soon to conclude anything, and of course we don't know the future (I didn't suggest we did). According to all the China observers on the net, Xi may now be little more than a figurehead, and not even that for much longer. 

But the decades-old threat to invade Taiwan did not originate with Xi. Is it a paper threat? Who can say? But there has been a recent build-up of military power, especially along the coast, that could signal something ominous. Or it could be nothing. 

One of the things that worries me is the state of China's economy. While the CCP keeps real numbers very much under wraps, discernable values suggest that it is dire and getting more dire. What the CCP may try to pull off is the so-called "tail wagging the dog" scenario. An actual invasion may be seen as the only way to stave off public support collapse. 

We definitely live in interesting times.

[Stargazer]

22 hours ago, longview said:

It is TOO late for Xi. His government is unravelling with his supporters being transferred out of key positions in the military. There is much greater discontent by the people after they discovered that they truly do not have property rights and home ownership. It is a mirage for them. They cannot even make meaningful gains on their investments (unless they get favorable permissions from the insiders). The tariff adjustments is putting the CCP into a terrible bind. Manufacturing is relocating OUT of China in droves.

Yes, trying to migrate out. Trying. 

Xi did not originate the Taiwan invasion promise (and it is a promise). It pre-dated him, and the CCP's long-range goal is to bring the rebellious province "back" under their control. 

Xi's government is not the only thing unraveling; the economy is as well. In order to stave off a complete collapse, the CCP under its new leader might just feel that the promised invasion is just the thing to take the public's mind off the economy, and somehow save their bacon. That's my speculation, at least.

[Robert F. Smith]

15 hours ago, Stargazer said:

................................

We definitely live in interesting times.

Yes, a famous Chinese curse.

For a variety of reasons, mainland China may be near collapse.  Perhaps an invasion of Taiwan would be a useful diversion.  However, we have long taken a very protective view of Taiwan, and we still far outclass the Chinese navy and air force.  The CCP no doubt fears what may happen if they attack.

[Calm]

6 minutes ago, Robert F. Smith said:

famous Chinese curse.

A famous curse claimed to be Chinese, but probably not.

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/May_you_live_in_interesting_times

[Robert F. Smith]

12 hours ago, Calm said:

A famous curse claimed to be Chinese, but probably not.

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/May_you_live_in_interesting_times

Thanks

[Calm]

3 hours ago, Robert F. Smith said:

Thanks

Thanks for mentioning it because for years I have wondered whether it was actually Chinese as it doesn’t sound particularly Asian (not that I would likely be able to tell since my primary exposure to Chinese culture is studying their myths as a kid and now watching their shows…mostly fantasy, but occasionally period mysteries), but always instantly distracted before.  Now I know.   

Edited July 7, 2025 by Calm

[Stargazer]

15 hours ago, Robert F. Smith said:

Yes, a famous Chinese curse.

For a variety of reasons, mainland China may be near collapse.  Perhaps an invasion of Taiwan would be a useful diversion.  However, we have long taken a very protective view of Taiwan, and we still far outclass the Chinese navy and air force.  The CCP no doubt fears what may happen if they attack.

By pure numbers, the PLAN is the largest navy in the world, with 787 ships. The US Navy has only about 300 deployable ships. But numbers are not everything. Total US Navy tonnage is about twice that of the PLAN. As for actual PLAN capabilities, I doubt their effectiveness. 

I imagine that the US knows where every single PLAN ship is located at any time, and the PLAN is largely a green-water navy. The US Navy has 51 nuke powered attack subs, and for that reason I doubt the ability of the PLAN to carry out a successful cross-strait invasion of Taiwan by sea.

I do hope they don't try.

 

Edited July 7, 2025 by Stargazer

[Calm]

31 minutes ago, Stargazer said:

do hope they don't try.

Needless injuries and deaths if they do.  We have enough of those we can’t avoid.

[marineland]

On 7/5/2025 at 2:44 PM, Robert F. Smith said:

Latter-day Saints have a reputation in China for being honest and above board.  Never a threat to the govt.

Christians who worship in underground or home churches are not dishonest nor do they
pose a threat to the government.  

Churches in China are required to register with the government primarily for control, 
surveillance, and ideological conformity.  Unregistered or "underground" churches are 
technically illegal and can be harassed, shut down, or persecuted. 

Registering with the government allows churches to operate legally and to hold public 
services. However, registration also means censorship of teachings. surveillance of church
leaders and members, and limits activities like proselytizing, youth ministry, or online
evangelism.

[Robert F. Smith]

6 hours ago, marineland said:

Christians who worship in underground or home churches are not dishonest nor do they
pose a threat to the government.  

Churches in China are required to register with the government primarily for control, 
surveillance, and ideological conformity.  Unregistered or "underground" churches are 
technically illegal and can be harassed, shut down, or persecuted. 

Registering with the government allows churches to operate legally and to hold public 
services. However, registration also means censorship of teachings. surveillance of church
leaders and members, and limits activities like proselytizing, youth ministry, or online
evangelism.

Historically, LDS members have not engaged in proselyting in China, and normally make the Church a family affair.  Unlike Falun Gong, Latter-day Saints really do not pose a threat to the govt.  In the past, there was a large expat community (including LDS), but that is  no longer the case.  Xi Jinping made the mistake of discouraging liberal economic policy (capitalism), locked up successful entrepreneurs, and chased the expats out of China, leading to near economic collapse.  More practical leaders have seen this and have now taken control.  Whether they will be successful is still unknown.  The future GDP depends upon facing reality.

[Robert F. Smith]

23 hours ago, Stargazer said:

By pure numbers, the PLAN is the largest navy in the world, with 787 ships. The US Navy has only about 300 deployable ships. But numbers are not everything. Total US Navy tonnage is about twice that of the PLAN. As for actual PLAN capabilities, I doubt their effectiveness. 

I imagine that the US knows where every single PLAN ship is located at any time, and the PLAN is largely a green-water navy. The US Navy has 51 nuke powered attack subs, and for that reason I doubt the ability of the PLAN to carry out a successful cross-strait invasion of Taiwan by sea.

.............................

Correct.  I have been in those straits several times courtesy of the US Navy.  The USA is the guarantor of free sailing on the high seas.

[The Nehor]

The invasion of Taiwan could very easily be a boondoggle. Even without direct US support it could go very badly. It is easy to look at military numbers and say that China will win but Taiwan would be very hard to take. Taiwan’s west coast is shallow meaning you have to ferry troops in from ships. This makes you very vulnerable. The East coast is covered with cliffs. There are a few beaches that are better than others but none are particularly good and Taiwan knows this. An amphibious landing on this scale hasn’t been tried in a long time. Normandy was easy by comparison. Even if they get ashore and get a beachhead the terrain is brutal for an invader. It is not impossible but it is not a matter of China pulling up and waving the flag and taking over.

The weather would also be critical.

We also don’t know how will the Chinese military will function. They haven’t been in a peer conflict in about 70 years. China is an authoritarian regime which means corruption. How badly has corruption hit China’s military. It could be as bad as Russia or bad but not quite that bad or mostly under control.

Also Taiwan and the United States will see an invasion coming months in advance. There would be no way to hide the prep work for this.

A less drastic option would be a blockade. It doesn’t risk as much but it could also fail.

I think of Argentina trying to use the Falklands to distract from domestic woes. Didn’t go that well and the Falklands conquest was laughably easy compared to what China would have to do to occupy Taiwan.

Again, not saying China wouldn’t try it but some people have presented it as a foregone conclusion that China will win unless the United States intervenes directly. China might be able to pull it off but I wouldn’t be surprised if they failed.

 

Also worth noting in general that this religious crackdown is more general than just targeting LDS. Other groups are feeling it too. Some religious groups have been flouting China’s laws for some time and this may just be a reaction to that. I know of some Christian groups that brag about breaking these laws. The really dedicated ones sneak over the border to proselyte in North Korea. Not sure whether this is bravery or stupidity or both.

And yeah, China has to pay the economic piper soon. They have been papering over their economy’s shortcomings since the late 2000s with fiscal stimulus but their government is so far not willing to address the actual problems underneath and the safety cushion won’t last forever.

[ZealouslyStriving]

7 hours ago, The Nehor said:

Again, not saying China wouldn’t try it but some people have presented it as a foregone conclusion that China will win unless the United States intervenes directly. China might be able to pull it off but I wouldn’t be surprised if they failed.

Britain was able to win in the Malvinas thanks to American tech- that is why many Argentinos dislike Americans.

Edited July 10, 2025 by ZealouslyStriving

[Stargazer]

On 7/7/2025 at 7:51 AM, Robert F. Smith said:

Yes, a famous Chinese curse.

For a variety of reasons, mainland China may be near collapse.  Perhaps an invasion of Taiwan would be a useful diversion.  However, we have long taken a very protective view of Taiwan, and we still far outclass the Chinese navy and air force.  The CCP no doubt fears what may happen if they attack.

Something from a China observer that brings some thoughts about Xi Jinping's status in China. 

 

[Robert F. Smith]

14 hours ago, Stargazer said:

Something from a China observer that brings some thoughts about Xi Jinping's status in China. ...................

It's the economy, Brother.  It's the economy...

 

[Stargazer]

Another "take"... "not a huge deal"

 

Edited July 11, 2025 by Stargazer

[marineland]

On 7/8/2025 at 5:40 PM, Robert F. Smith said:

Historically, LDS members have not engaged in proselyting in China, and normally make the Church a family affair. 

The Great Commission continues in other churches there.

[The Nehor]

On 7/10/2025 at 1:11 AM, ZealouslyStriving said:

Britain was able to win in the Malvinas thanks to American tech- that is why many Argentinos dislike Americans.

Some tech was provided but the big aid was logistical support. The ability to support military forces deployed far from home has been the most exceptional element of the United States military since the Second World War. The British were hard pressed to operate in the South Atlantic. Even today we see Russia struggling to maintain supplies to their troops in Ukraine which is on their border. Meanwhile the United States can launch an operation against landlocked Afghanistan and get the people and stuff they need to the site. It is sometimes overlooked how exceptional that is.

And it is not just Argentina that feels that way. A lot of South American nations grew even more suspicious of the US after the Falklands conflict and we didn’t have a great reputation before that.

Edited July 11, 2025 by The Nehor

[Robert F. Smith]

8 hours ago, marineland said:

The Great Commission continues in other churches there.

Yes, but some cases are ultra-sensitive for Latter-day Saints, such as China, Russia, and Israel.