“War and rumors of wars”. Prophecy fulfilled?

[JustAnAustralian]

Will this be the start of another Simpsons prediction gone right?

 

I think China will be watching carefully. If Russia can take Ukraine without foreign intervention, then China is going to feel a lot more confident with Taiwan.  The only advantage Taiwan has is a lack of a land border.

Bill also mentioned Hong Kong. If China wanted, that would be a trivial invasion. Roads and ports blocked in a matter of hours. Troops everywhere not that much later.

Edited February 22, 2022 by JustAnAustralian

[Calm]

I am flashing back to the hospital after the delivery of my daughter and watching the invasion of Kuwait. 

Then there was the annexation of the Crimea. 

And all the other stuff I have tried to block out as nothing I could do, so didn’t need the distress  

It just goes on. We (humanity) never learn. 

[The Nehor]

5 hours ago, JustAnAustralian said:

Will this be the start of another Simpsons prediction gone right?

 

I think China will be watching carefully. If Russia can take Ukraine without foreign intervention, then China is going to feel a lot more confident with Taiwan.  The only advantage Taiwan has is a lack of a land border.

Bill also mentioned Hong Kong. If China wanted, that would be a trivial invasion. Roads and ports blocked in a matter of hours. Troops everywhere not that much later.

This clip has definitely been making the rounds but it is unlikely. The Soviet Union is weakening. The CIS which replaced the Soviet Union is much smaller than its predecessor. and if you look at the members of the old Warsaw Pact virtually all of them are democracies now or at least hybrid governments. There are some worrying signs of autocracy resurging in a few. Hungary is the most alarming to me. That being said we have three members of the USSR in NATO now. The West has been negligent for a long time when the Russians went for Georgia, the Crimea, and several other adventures because they were winning all throughout Europe. It looks like they are waking up to Russia wanting a fight but Russia is weak. It is dealing with an aging populace, a relatively weak economy for its size and population, and its allies like Kazakhstan and Turkmenistan and most of the other nations in the CIS are weak and not particularly devoted to the Russian cause.

Hong Kong would be easy. China is being careful there because Hong Kong’s unique status makes it a real moneymaker for the regime. They want to bring Hong Kong in line without killing the golden goose. Taiwan would not be an easy target. It would require a vast amphibious invasion that would dwarf D-Day and have to be done in much tighter and therefore more dangerous beaches. It would be a bloodbath. It would be an all or nothing gambit and there is no guarantee of success. If it failed China could easily see the current regime fall. Even if it succeeded the death toll would be very high and then China has to subdue an unruly populace for at least a generation or two. That is the scenario with limited US intervention.

If the US goes all in it gets really weird. I have no idea how such an attack would go. Nobody does. We haven’t seen a naval conflict on that scale since World War II and haven’t seen even a near-symmetrical naval invasion of that type since the Falklands War. We have only best guesses as to how a conflict with modern technology fought by near-equals would play out. China might win but I wouldn’t be surprised if Taiwan pulled a surprise upset. The hilarious thing would be for China to lose in an invasion, fall to civil conflict, and then the government of Taiwan returns and declares that they are retaking their position now that they have beaten the descendants of Mao’s revolutionaries. That would be funny. Very unlikely though.

[rodheadlee]

Uh huh

[bsjkki]

And here we are.

[The Nehor]

I have expected this for weeks but I hoped and prayed it wouldn’t happen.

Damn it.

I did not have conventional land war in Europe on my 2022 bingo card two months ago.

This will be the first conventional conflict on this scale covered en masse in a nation where virtually everyone has a cell phone. If you follow it and it starts to hit you too bad step away. Secondary trauma is a real thing.

The Cold War is back. Add in a horrific hot war. There are going to be a lot of refugees. The Polish border is going to be a mess. Probably not as bad but same thing in Romania and Moldova. There will also be a lot of scams claiming to collect for them. Be careful if you donate money. The Jews in Ukraine may be in extra trouble. The anti-Semitic propaganda has intensified in Russia in recent weeks. The Jews in Russia have had a bit of a reprieve in recent years. That MIGHT be coming to an end.

Cruise missiles have already hit the capitol in Kyiv and the naval base in Odessa and other strikes have hit military positions in the eastern portion of Ukraine. There are reports that the Russians landed at Odessa. The amphibious attack was expected but Ukraine didn’t have what they needed to repel it. This means Russia is probably not going to restrict the objective to only securing the two breakaway states they claim to be supporting. They plan to occupy at least half of the nation and might go for the whole thing.

God help the people of Ukraine. God help us all.

 

 

 

Oh, and if you see any idiotic traitors siding with the authoritarian state violating the sovereignty of another state to ‘keep it in line’ and defending or justifying these actions in any way punch them in the face. I never thought I would see the day that American media would take the side of Russia over that of NATO and the general objective of free nations but here we are. What happened to us?

 

Edited February 24, 2022 by The Nehor

[bsjkki]

1 minute ago, The Nehor said:

I have expected this for weeks but I hoped and prayed it wouldn’t happen.

Damn it.

I did not have conventional land war in Europe on my 2022 bingo card two months ago.

This will be the first conventional conflict on this scale covered en masse in a nation where virtually everyone has a cell phone. If you follow it and it starts to hit you too bad step away. Secondary trauma is a real thing.

The Cold War is back. Add in a horrific hot war. There are going to be a lot of refugees. The Polish border is going to be a mess. Probably not as bad but same thing in Romania and Moldova. There will also be a lot of scams claiming to collect for them. Be careful if you donate money. The Jews in Ukraine may be in extra trouble. The anti-Semitic propaganda has intensified in Russia in recent weeks. The Jews in Russia have had a bit of a reprieve in recent years. That MIGHT be coming to an end.

Cruise missiles have already hit the capitol in Kyiv and the naval base in Odessa and other strikes have hit military positions in the eastern portion of Ukraine. There are reports that the Russians landed at Odessa. The amphibious attack was expected but Ukraine didn’t have what they needed to repel it. This means Russia is probably not going to restrict the objective to only securing the two breakaway states they claim to be supporting. They plan to occupy at least half of the nation and might go for the whole thing.

God help the people of Ukraine. God help us all.

 

 

 

Oh, and if you see any idiotic traitors siding with the authoritarian state violating the sovereignty of another state to ‘keep it in line’ and defends these actions in any way punch them in the face. I never thought I would see the day that American media would take the side of Russia over that of NATO and the general objective of free nations but here we are. I wonder if we deserve this.

 

I heard the Odessa claims are not true but not sure. Lots of information flooding in and hard to sort it out. 
 

Agree with your comment. Was hoping this would not happen. 
 

I think most people were hoping Putin would not follow through. 
 

The question now is what are Americans willing to do about it now? What will the EU do? 
 

Listening to military experts explain how Europe does not have the capability to rebuff Russia. Don’t have the numbers. Haven’t spent money on defense or troops and they are not ready.

[The Nehor]

I have also heard both ways on Odessa but I suspect it is true. The amphibious assets were known to be in position for over a week now. There are also reports that airborne troops have taken Kyiv’s airport to establish an air bridge but I doubt that one. This is probably not going to be a wholly conventional war. The government has been passing guns out to civilians for weeks and training them. A stand up fight would go badly.

I also forgot how scary effective Russia’s MLRS (multiple launch rocket systems) are. 

There was also something horrifying in watching the UN Council meeting being chaired by Russia. Any measure they pass Russia will veto. Ukraine has taken up a very odd diplomatic tactic though. They are trying to lay a case that the Russian Federation is not the legitimate successor of the USSR meaning they are not entitled to a seat on the Security Council. It is a bit of a stretch but with enough support it might work to kick the Russians off the Security Council.

Finland is reportedly already getting a fast-tracked request in to join NATO as they said they would. Russia announced a civilian no fly zone extending into May. They are anticipating this will take a while. Their stated goal now is to denazify and demilitarize Ukraine. Russia has kill lists of people they want eliminated or possibly sent to camps. Government leaders, military and militia leaders, journalists, activists, religious and ethnic minorities, dissidents from Russia and Belarus, and of course the entire LGBTQ community.

It is hard to know what is going on beyond streams. Even the leaders on both sides will have a limited idea of what is going in the early chaos. NATO is unlikely to directly intervene. They will probably send out air assets to ‘buzz’ the edge of the war zone to force Russia to divert assets just in case to take some pressure off. Weapons will probably pour in to arm Ukraine and the populace.

There will be knock on effects. Ukraine is a breadbasket nation which means food shortages. With the impending mass starvation in Afghanistan on top of that we can look for food shortages in some areas. The disruption in trade will cause energy crisises in some areas. We can expect military build ups in the nations closest to Russia. Finland and Poland mostly, possibly Romania. The US has moved additional troops into Poland. In the chaos of war anything is possible but I hope Putin isn’t dumb enough to attack a NATO state which is a declaration of war on all of NATO. Then we have to worry about nuclear exchanges.

Diplomatically most of the world has condemned Russia except for Russia and their satellites and Syria. China is dithering. India is trying to do a “both sides are responsible” thing.

Well, at least it won’t be a boring year.

This was recently posted from Ukraine’s official account:

 

[The Nehor]

Why is almost everyone and everything so incredibly stupid?

[The Nehor]

Belarus has pledged military support for Russia. It is unlikely they will be used much or at all. The roads west of Kyiv are in gridlock with refugees. Reports of tanks and planes destroyed. Russia has claimed that Ukraine’s air defense capability is gone. Doubt that very much.

There are reports of protests in Russia and Kazakhstan against the invasion with the protestors being arrested. Kazakhstan especially could really heat up with Russia busy elsewhere.

Putin is still trying to spin the invasion as a peacekeeping action but few are buying it. Must be frustrating after orchestrating so many disinformation campaigns that worked to watch this one fail.

 

[Bill “Papa” Lee]

On 2/21/2022 at 7:46 PM, Calm said:

I am flashing back to the hospital after the delivery of my daughter and watching the invasion of Kuwait. 

Then there was the annexation of the Crimea. 

And all the other stuff I have tried to block out as nothing I could do, so didn’t need the distress  

It just goes on. We (humanity) never learn. 

It does indeed show that we never learn

In God’s Name

The heavens weep, at the sight

When God’s children choose to fight.

Each cause different, yet all the same 

They think they fight, In God’s name. 
 

~Lee~
 

Saw a picture of our Temple in “Kyiv Ukraine 🇺🇦“, I pray all missionaries are out, that our people are safe, and the Temple is not harmed. However, having been a soldier, I know better! 

[The Nehor]

Papa: Our missionaries were pulled out a few weeks ago.

I may have been too optimistic about sanctions. It seems like every other nation in NATO wants to exempt some specific items from it. Get to together people!

The first images of captured Russian soldiers are coming out. A bunch of kids in their late teens with ad hoc uniforms, subpar gear, and who just look like they just want to go home. The same as most wars. Meanwhile teenagers and young men in Ukraine are being given guns and readied for urban and guerilla fighting. Covid cases are also reportedly raging through Russia’s troops.

Russia is still trying to spin this as peacekeeping. Russia’s economy is crashing. The Russian stock market was down around 50%. This is a higher hit than the crash in the 20s that led to the Depression. The market has been closed. The Russian Ruble is also still cratering. Russia is a petrostate so oil prices are shooting up. The US and some other nations did see this coming and supply is still high for now but other nations that rely on Russian imported oil may see shortages.

Protests in Russia are heating up with protestors calling the government fascists. The protests are being suppressed.

Russia has seized the Chernobyl site. It looks like the staff there are being held hostage.

Cyber attacks on Ukraine continue. There is a worry that if this escalates Russia may try to target infrastructure in Europe and the US. In this kind of warfare the attacker has the advantage. There is also the disinformation angle. Russian bots and influencers are trying to spin the whole conflict to fracture NATO and dupes (unwitting and witting) are spreading their propaganda. The objective is to weaken any economic and political response and to weaken or fracture NATO. The Russians have been trying to elevate people sympathetic to Russia to power in Europe and the US for years now.

NATO is meeting and Sweden and Finland, though not members, have been invited to attend. I expect Finland at least to join shortly. Sweden might after the current situation in Ukraine and their recent incidents over the last few years with the Russians in the Baltic Sea.